UNSC vote on Palestine State: US Credibility at Stake

RSIS presents the following commentary UNSC vote on Palestine State: US Credibility at Stake by James M.  Dorsey. It is also available online at this link. (To print it, click on this link.). Kindly forward any comments or  feedback to the Editor RSIS Commentaries, at  RSISPublication@ntu.edu.sg No. 132/2011 dated 15 September 2011                                 UNSC vote on Palestine State:  US Credibility at Stake By James M. Dorsey Synopsis President Mahmoud Abbas’ decision to seek United Nations Security Council recognition of  Palestinian statehood poses the most serious challenge to US credibility in the Arab and  Muslim world. It will also weaken Israel’s strategic links with Turkey, its most important Muslim  ally. Commentary THE PALESTINE Authority is preparing to confront Israel’s main ally, the United States, in  the United Nations Security Council in a battle of wills over recognition of the Palestine State.  This impending diplomatic clash will significantly undermine Washington’s ability to protect  its friend and could weaken its alliances in the Arab world. A decision by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to request the Security Council rather than  the UN General Assembly to recognise Palestinian statehood is designed to force  the US to make good on its pledge to veto the resolution. The veto will significantly undermine US credibility and call into question President Barak Obama’s support for the creation of a  Palestinian state with borders based on the boundaries of Israel prior to the 1967  Arab-Israeli war in which it conquered the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem. Mr. Obama has vowed to block UN recognition of the Palestinian state in support of Israel.  He has  argued  that recognition would not further the Palestinian quest for statehood and  has set aside warnings from Arab nations that the veto would affect their relations with the US.  The president clearly feels that he cannot afford a bruising domestic battle with Israel’s  supporters in the US at a time when his ability to tackle the country’s severe economic  problems is in question and with presidential elections looming in just over a year. Capitalising on popular revolt Mr. Abbas, by dropping his initial plan to seek recognition by the General Assembly, has opted for a  head-on challenge with the US that is designed to exploit the mood of public opinion  in the Arab world where popular revolts are fuelled in part by resentment at the impotence of  their governments to effectively help Palestinians assert their rights. Arab states are under  pressure to appear to back the Palestinians more aggressively after non-Arab Turkey set  the tone earlier this month by expelling Israel’s ambassador, downgrading diplomatic relations and  suspending all military cooperation with it. In doing so, Mr. Abbas is riding the  popular wave that in Cairo led to the storming of the Israeli embassy by militant, highly politicised  soccer fans. Applying to the General Assembly would have allowed Mr. Abbas to adopt a formula that would have  avoided a head-on collision with Washington. He could have sought recognition of  Palestine as a state that would not become a UN member. The US does not have a veto in the  General Assembly, in which a majority endorses recognition of Palestinian statehood; also its  endorsement does not have to be approved by the Security Council as long as Palestine  does not seek UN membership. In forcing Arab states to rally around his quest for statehood, Mr. Abbas has thrown up a barrier to  tacit efforts by Israel and the Gulf states to find common ground based on their  eagerness to curb the tidal wave of anti-government protests sweeping the Middle East and  North Africa that have already toppled the leaders of  Tunisia, Egypt and Libya and are  shaking the foundations of autocratic regimes in Syria and Yemen. Both Israel and the Gulf states fear that the tidal wave threatens the existing order in the region and  empowers the Arab street. It was barely noticed that during the storming of the Israeli  embassy in Cairo the nearby Saudi embassy was targeted as well. The protesters vented their  anger at the treatment of Egyptian pilgrims returning from the holy city of Mecca, who had been  delayed for days at Jeddah airport.  The pilgrims were insulted by Saudi officials for putting  ousted President Mubarak on trial for responsibility for the deaths of hundreds of Egyptians in the  revolt early this year that forced him out of office. Political reality overrides common interest Israel and the Gulf states also share concerns about Egypt’s Sinai peninsula becoming a largely  abandoned frontier for weapons smuggling and human trafficking and that could  become a launching pad for attacks on Israel alongside the Gaza Strip that is controlled by  Hamas, the militant Palestinian Islamist group. Also, Israel and the Gulf states both view Iran   as a major threat to regional stability; they do not want to see the Islamic republic succeed in its  alleged efforts to develop a nuclear weapons capability. All of that is secondary to the battle lines being drawn over Palestine. In a stark warning, Prince  Turki al-Faisal, an influential member of the Saudi ruling family, warned that the  kingdom will break with the US on Iraq, and perhaps on Afghanistan and Yemen, if the  two countries were to go separate ways over next week’s Palestinian bid for statehood. Prince  Turki’s remarks reflect a growing sense in Saudi Arabia that US support is as much a liability  as it is an asset. To be sure, the US, Israel and the Gulf states share a host of common political and economic interests.  Yet, the opportunity to capitalise on that commonality is shrinking at the very moment  when they would benefit most from increased cooperation. The risks involved in acting on those  common interests grow by the day as the fallout from Turkey’s rupturing ties with Israel becomes  increasingly apparent. Besides, emotions and the political reality of Arab and Muslim public  opinion are rising to the forefront with the Palestinians gearing up in the United Nations for recognition of their statehood. That recognition is likely be a largely symbolic victory, but it is one that could dramatically change the  legal playing field on which the Israeli-Palestinian battle is fought. James M. Dorsey is a Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS),  Nanyang Technological University. Click here for past commentaries. Click here to subscribe/unsubscribe to the mailing list.  Find us on Facebook.