by James M. Dorsey
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It may be reading tea leaves but analysis of the walk-up to
Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit and his sojourn in Islamabad suggests
that Pakistan may be about to fight battles on two fronts rather than just the
Indian one in the wake of this month’s attacks
in Kashmir.
Prince Mohammed’s expressions of unconditional support for
Pakistan coupled with his promise
of US$20 billion in investments in addition to US$6 billion in desperately
needed financial aid raise the spectre of a
shift in Pakistani efforts in recent years to walk a fine line in the
rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
That fine line included a 2015 Pakistani refusal to
send troops to the kingdom in support of the Saudi military
intervention in Yemen.
Speaking to the Arab News this week, Major
General Asif Ghafoor, head of the Pakistan army’s media wing, suggested that
Pakistan’s commitment to Saudi Arabia was equally unconditional. “Pakistan is committed to standing by its Saudi
brethren,” Maj. Gen. Ghafoor said.
Pakistani Foreign Minister
Shah Mehmood Qureshi seemed to fine tune the officer’s statement by not
mentioning Yemen in his remarks to the Saudi paper and limiting Pakistan’s
commitment to the kingdom itself. “If anyone would create chaos in or attack
the Kingdom, Pakistan would stand by its brethren Saudi Arabia,” Mr. Qureishi
said.
The stakes for Pakistan that borders on Iran and is home to
the world’s largest minority Shiite Muslim community could not be higher.
Concerned that Pakistan’s position may be shifting, Iran
this week dialled up the rhetoric by warning that Pakistan would "pay a high price" for last week’s attack in the Iranian province of Sistan
and Baluchistan that killed 27 Revolutionary Guards.
Like with India in the case of Kashmir, Iran asserted that
the perpetrators, Jaish-al-Adl, were operating from Pakistani territory with at
least the tacit knowledge of Pakistani authorities. In an unusual disclosure, Iran
said three of the six perpetrators of last week’s attack, including the suicide
bomber, were Pakistani nationals.
In the past, Iran has by and large said that militants who
had launched attacks were Iranian nationals rather than Pakistanis.
The tone of Revolutionary Guards chief Major General
Mohammad Ali Jafari’s statement holding Pakistan, alongside the United States,
Saudi Arabia and Israel, responsible for the recent attack reflected Iranian
concern with what may flow from Prince Mohammed’s visit.
“Why
do Pakistan’s army and security body ... give refuge to these
anti-revolutionary groups? Pakistan will no doubt pay a high price. Just
in the past year, six or seven suicide attacks were neutralized but they were
able to carry out this one,”,” Maj. Gen. Jafari said in remarks live on state
television.
Initially, Iran had limited itself to blaming external powers
rather than Pakistan for the attack.
Indications suggesting that Prince Mohammed’s visit to
Pakistan may have been about more than economic cooperation were severalfold
and involved gestures that despite Pakistani denials would not have come
without a price tag.
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan expressed in a little noticed
declaration in their joint statement at the end of the crown prince’s visit “the
need to avoid
politicization of the United Nations listing system.”
The statement was
implicitly referring to Indian efforts to get the UN Security Council to designate
Masood Azhar as a global terrorist. Mr. Azhar is the head of Jaish-e-Mohammed,
the group that has claimed responsibility for the Kashmir attack.
China, which at Pakistan’s behest has blocked Mr. Azhar’s
designation in recent years, this week rejected
an Indian request that it lift its veto. China asserts that Indian
evidence fails to meet UN standards.
In another
tantalizing incident, Mr. Qureshi, the Pakistani foreign minister, did nothing
to distance his country from a statement in his presence by Saudi State
Minister for Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Jubeir accusing
Iran of being the "world’s chief sponsor of terrorism"
Similarly, in preparation of Prince Mohammed’s talks, retired
General Raheel Sharif, the Pakistani commander of the Saudi-based, 40-nation Islamic
Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (IMCTC), flew from Riyadh to Islamabad for
talks
with prime minister Imran Khan and Pakistani chief of staff, General Qamar
Javed Bajwa.
Pakistan agreed to General Sharif’s appointment as commander
despite its refusal to join the coalition in the belief that the 2017 Saudi
request that he be seconded put the South Asian nation between a rock and hard
place.
Pakistani military officials argued at the time that while
the appointment would irritate Iran, refusal of the Saudi request would expose Pakistan
to criticism from many more in the Islamic world.
Neither the Pakistani government nor the IMCTC gave details
of General Sharif’s discussions. The IMCTC, however, said in a tweet that “salient
contours of IMCTC's domains and initiatives in the fight against #terrorism
were discussed.”
The tone and gestures during Prince Mohammed’s visit
contrasted starkly with positions adopted by Mr. Khan during his election
campaign and immediately after he took office last year.
In his first post-election
televised speech Mr. Khan made a point of discussing his
country’s relationship with Saudi Arabia and Iran.
“We want to improve ties with Iran. Saudi Arabia is a friend
who has always stood by us in difficult times. Our aim will be that whatever we
can do for conciliation in the Middle East, we want to play that role. Those
tensions, that fight, between neighbours, we will try to bring them
together," Mr. Khan said.
The geopolitical fallout, if any, of what for now amounts to
symbolism will likely only be evident in the weeks and months to come.
Beyond Iran’s toughening stance towards Pakistan in the wake
of the attack on its Revolutionary Guards, tell-tale signs would be a closer Pakistani
alignment with the Saud-led anti-terrorism coalition and the degree to which
Pakistan-based militant launch attacks inside Iran.
Middle East scholar Michael Stephens, who heads the Royal
United Services Institute (RUSI) operation in Qatar suggested that reading the
tea leaves may best be done with a grain of salt.
“Geography is what it is, and Pakistan will always have to
maintain a relationship with Iran (economic and security) regardless of how
much cash it gets from Riyadh… Pakistan
will do what's best for Pakistan, and not Riyadh, the US or Tehran. Telling
everyone what they want to hear is kinda how this all works,” Mr. Stephens
said.
Dr.
James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International
Studies, co-director of the University of Würzburg’s Institute for Fan Culture,
and co-host of the New Books in Middle Eastern Studies podcast.
James is the author of The Turbulent World
of Middle East Soccer blog, a book with the same title and a co-authored
volume, Comparative Political Transitions between Southeast Asia and
the Middle East and North Africa as well as Shifting
Sands, Essays on Sports and Politics in the Middle East and North Africa
and recently published China
and the Middle East: Venturing into the Maelstrom
