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Russian societal tensions are mirrored in Putin’s Orthodox church

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By James M. Dorsey The Russian Orthodox Church blesses rather than fires weapons . In doing so, it has emerged as a powerful weapon in its own right in President Vladimir Putin’s civilisationalist arsenal. Mr. Putin justified his 12-day-old invasion of Ukraine in part by asserting that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government had been preparing for the “destruction” of the  Ukrainian Orthodox Church . Mr. Putin was referring to that part of the church that remained loyal to the Moscow Patriarch after the Ukrainian church in 2018 declared itself independent. Unwittingly, Mr. Putin may have been acknowledging that all may not be well in the church, at least from not from his perspective. Choosing his words carefully, Metropolitan Onufry, the head of the pro-Moscow wing of the church, called for an end to the fighting. “Forget mutual quarrels and misunderstandings and ... unite with love for God and our Motherland,” Mr. Onufry said. The Metropolitan’s call contrasted starkly with maxima
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Saudi Arabia and Indonesia: Clashing visions of 'moderate Islam.'

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By James M. Dorsey Two diametrically opposed visions of moderate Islam have emerged as major Muslim powers battle to define the soul of their faith in the 21 st century in a struggle that is as much about geopolitics as it is about autocratic survival and visualisations of a future civilisation and world order. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Yahya Cholil Staquf, the newly elected chairman of the central board of Indonesia’s Nahdlatul Ulama, the world’s largest Muslim civil society movement, expressed their duelling visions in separate but almost simultaneously published interviews. While the timing of the interviews was coincidental, they neatly laid out the parameters of a rivalry among major Middle Eastern and Asian Muslim-majority powers to dominate the discourse of Islam’s place as the world transits into an as yet undefined new world order. Unsurprisingly, the visions expressed by the two leaders mirror the struggle epitomised by the Russian invasion of Ukraine betwee
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Ukraine: Middle Eastern states eye cost of hedging bets

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  By James M. Dorsey Emiratis celebrated their failure to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the United Nations Security Council as the end of an era in which the Gulf state took its foreign policy cues from the United States. However, the Emiratis may be celebrating prematurely. As the UAE took over from Russia this month as chairman of the Council, Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political scientist whose views often reflect thinking in official Emirati circles, said the UAE’s abstention in the UN votes "was consistent with the new UAE foreign policy activism, which stems from being confident of its decisions and its approach to global and regional politics." Mr. Abdulla went on to say that "finally we are independent enough, competent enough to take this kind of position, which is consistent with our own way of doing things. Maybe it doesn't resonate too well in Washington, but that's the way things are going to be from now on ." Time will tell. It
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Ukraine: Lessons not being learned

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By James M. Dorsey Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine and the international condemnation it generated contains key lessons for policymakers. They are lessons that should have been learned in past global crises but weren't. However, the Ukraine crisis offers an opportunity to correct that mistake. A first lesson is that failure to firmly stand up to violations of international law as they occur convinces trespassers that they can get away with them. It emboldens violators to commit ever more flagrant infringements. Kicking the can down the road by failing to immediately and firmly respond to violations amounts to allowing an open wound to fester. The longer the wound festers, the more difficult, costly, and risky it is to cure it. The last 14 years of Mr. Putin's rule are a case in point. Mr. Putin began the recreation of his Russian world in 2008 when he recognized the two Georgian breakaway republics of Abkhazia and North Ossetia. The recognition consti
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Imaging the day after a Russian conquest of Kyiv: Not a pretty picture

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  By James M. Dorsey It may be only a matter of time before Russian troops control the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and topple President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. However, that may not be the end of the story. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s troops could find themselves in Ukraine for the long haul depending on whether Ukrainians have the stomach to launch an insurgency. If so, Mr. Putin knows the drill. Soviet troops withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989 after a costly decade-long war in which they battled a US-Pakistani-Saudi-backed Islamic insurgency. Their defeat resembled the humiliation suffered by the United States at the hands of the Vietcong in the 1970s and the Afghan Taliban with last year’s US withdrawal from the Central Asian state. As Ukrainians weigh their options for a post-Zelenskyy era, Chechnya, rather than Afghanistan, will likely be on their minds. Russian troops brutally quelled an Islamic insurgency in Chechnya in two wars. They besieged and devastated the Chechen
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Middle Eastern states walk a tightrope that Ukraine spins ever tighter

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  By James M. Dorsey Israel and Gulf states struggle not to fall off the tightrope they walk as a Russian attack on Ukraine makes hedging bets increasingly tricky. Unlike Israel, the Gulf states may feel that they have more flexibility than the Jewish state that depends on the United States for its regional military superiority and political support in an international community critical of its 54-year-long occupation of the West Bank. That is, at best, a long-term bet that could prove costly in the short-term and fails to consider any number of potential gray and black swans. Israel initially sought to walk a fine line. It expressed support for Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty but did not mention Russia in its statements prior to Russian attack on the East European country. Similarly, it has stopped Baltic states from transferring Israeli-made weapons to Ukraine. Israel fears that criticism of Russia or material support of Ukraine could prompt Russia to
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Ukraine: It’s the new world order, stupid

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  By James M. Dorsey Ukraine is about much more than the security of one sovereign nation. The battle for Ukraine is a battle for the new world order. In that battle, Russian President Vladimir Putin is living up to the worst expectations of Western policymakers and analysts. Unlike Chinese President Xi Jinping, Mr. Putin is seeking to overthrow the current world order, at least as far Europe and the continent’s security architecture is concerned. By contrast, Mr. Xi would prefer to ensure China's place in the existing world order, enhanced with what he would call Chinese characteristics. But, in doing so, Mr. Xi dangerously blurs the lines between maintaining and fundamentally altering the current world order. If the period since World War One was in the words of President Woodrow Wilson about “making the world safe for democracy,” today it is in the mind of Mr. Putin and the words of Financial Times columnist Gideon Rahman about “making the world safe for autocrats.”
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