Journalist’s disappearance challenges fragile Middle Eastern pragmatism
By James M. Dorsey
Saudi Arabia and Turkey, despite being on opposite sides of
Middle Eastern divides, are cooperating
in Syria to enable youth and women to acquire skills that would
either allow them to compete in the job market or turn them into entrepreneurs.
The Saudi-funded, Turkish-executed projects potentially
highlight a newly found degree of pragmatism and fluidity among seemingly
entrenched alliances in the Middle East that largely pitch Turkey, Iran and
Qatar against Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Saudi Arabia and Turkey differ on some of the Middle East’s
most important divides. Turkey backs Qatar in its 15-month-old dispute
with a Saudi-United Arab Emirates-led alliance that is boycotting
the Gulf state economically and diplomatically and is competing with Saudi
Arabia, and even more so with its closest ally, the UAE, for influence
in the Horn of Africa.
While Turkey and Saudi Arabia are closer in their approach
towards Syria, Turkey hosts members of the Muslim Brotherhood, a group that has
been banned in the kingdom and is at the centre of its conflict with Qatar. It
also opposes US sanctioning of Iran that has been embraced by Saudi Arabia.
Turkey further has exploited Saudi reluctance to
aggressively oppose US President Donald J. Trump’s pro-Israel policy to
position itself as the leader of the Islamic world in supporting the
Palestinians. Turkish officials have suggested that the
UAE had funded a failed 2016 military coup.
The projects are but one indication of the seeming emergence
of a degree of pragmatism on the part of parties on all sides of the Middle
Eastern divide. Other indications include differences
between Turkey, Russia and Iran over how to handle Idlib, the last
rebel-held stronghold in Syria; Bahraini trial
balloons suggesting a softening of the boycott of Qatar; and Turkish-German
efforts to mend fences with one another.
The signs of flexibility are as
fragile as the alliances themselves. They are being put to a test
with the disappearance
in Istanbul of prominent Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a critic
of the kingdom’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, who disappeared this week
during a visit to the Saudi consulate.
Mr. Khashoggi, known for his close ties to the ruling
family, went a year ago into self-exile in Washington, after being banned from
publishing, which he feared was a prelude to arrest.
Neither Saudi Arabia nor Turkey have so far commented on Mr.
Khashoggi’s disappearance. A Saudi Press Agency report said an
unidentified Saudi national accused of having signed cheques that bounced had
been deported to the kingdom on the basis of an arrest warrant
issued by Interpol. The agency gave no further details.
While it is unknown whether the agency was referring to Mr.
Khashoggi, many fear that he may have been kidnapped. It would not be the first
time that Saudi Arabia has forcibly repatriated its
critics.
A Saudi detention or nabbing of Mr. Khashoggi in Istanbul
without at least tacit Turkish cooperation would embarrass Turkish prime
minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and likely spark a further deterioration of
Turkish-Saudi relations. If Turkey was complicit, it would bear testimony to
increasing pragmatism.
Meanwhile, Saudi-Turkish cooperation in Syria goes beyond
relief and development aid. It helps Turkey create a sphere of influence in
areas of Syria near Turkey’s border that are controlled by Turkish troops and
administered by Turkey.
In a bid to compliment Turkish hard power in Syria with soft
power and counter Kurdish influence, Mr. Erdogan’s Religious Affairs
Directorate or Diyanet has trained Syrian religious personnel, according to a 104-page
report published by the directorate.
The report said that the directorate had spent a total of
US$34.1 million dollars in Syria on thing like repairing mosques, distributing
Kurdish-language Qur’ans, and educating 11,250 students.
Journalist Amed Dicle said that Diyanet had recruited 5,686
teachers from the ranks of rebels opposed to the regime of Syrian president
Bashar al-Assad whose curriculum
emphasized Turkey’s synthesis between Islam and nationalism and included
anti-Kurdish teachings. “Kurds are portrayed as atheists, and the
PKK, YPG and other Kurdish fighters are infidels,” Mr. Dicle said, referring to
the outlawed Kurdish Workers Party and its Syrian offshoot, the People’s
Protection Units.
A Syrian
imam told Al-Monitor that “we're getting paid by the Turkish
government. We're grateful to them and we see that the local population here
are happy to be under Turkish rule. For Turkey, religious and national
allegiance are one and the same. But our interpretation of Islam may not always
be the same. Turkey keeps Kurds under control and that's good for us. Plus, one
day Syrians in Turkey may come and settle in these areas.”
Saudi cooperation with Turkey and its anti-Kurdish agenda in
Syria has not prevented the kingdom from establishing ties to Iraq’s autonomous
Kurdish region that borders on Iran with the opening
of a consulate in Erbil, initiation of Saudia
flights from Jeddah to Erbil, and a visit by Saudi
businessmen.
Bahrain reportedly hinted last month that the Gulf states
boycotting Qatar may re-open
airspace to flights bound from and to Doha. The continued closure
has forced Qatar Airways to fly longer routes to circumvent Saudi, UAE and
Bahraini airspace at considerable cost to the airline. The report was widely
seen as a trial balloon.
Similarly, Mr. Erdogan travelled last week to Germany with
which it has had strained relations in a bid to increase his options following
a summit with Vladimir Putin and Hassan Rouhani, the presidents of Russia and
Iran, in which he for now delayed a Syrian-Russian assault on Idlib that would
have sent hundreds of thousands, if not millions fleeing towards the Turkish
border.
The limitations of the notion, apparently shared by German
chancellor Angela Merkel and Mr. Erdogan, that deep differences can easily be
put aside to pragmatically focus on issues of common interest, a key pillar of
Middle Eastern alliances, were on display with the European Parliament this
week voting to withhold
70 million euros in pre-accession funding because Turkey had failed
to reverse its moves towards authoritarianism.
Dr.
James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International
Studies, co-director of the University of Würzburg’s Institute for Fan Culture,
and co-host of the New Books in Middle Eastern Studies podcast.
James is the author of The Turbulent World
of Middle East Soccer blog, a book with the same title and a co-authored
volume, Comparative Political Transitions between Southeast Asia and
the Middle East and North Africa as well as Shifting
Sands, Essays on Sports and Politics in the Middle East and North Africa
and just published China
and the Middle East: Venturing into the Maelstrom
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