Jamal Khashoggi rejiggers the Middle East at potentially horribly cost
By James M. Dorsey
The fate of missing Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi,
assuming that his disappearance was the work of Saudi security and military
officials, threatens to upend the fundaments of fault lines in the Middle East.
At stake is not only the fate of a widely respected
journalist and the future of Turkish-Saudi relations.
Mr. Khashoggi’s fate, whether he was kidnapped by Saudi
agents during a visit to the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul to obtain proof of
his divorce or murdered on its premises, threatens to severely disrupt the
US-Saudi alliance that underwrites much of the Middle East’s fault lines.
A US
investigation into Mr. Khashoggi’s fate mandated by members of the US Congress
and an expected
meeting between President Donald J. Trump, and the journalist’s Turkish
fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, could result in a US and European embargo on
arms sales to Saudi Arabia and impact the kingdom’s brutal proxy war with Iran
in Yemen.
It also would project Saudi Arabia as a rogue state and call
into question US and Saudi allegations that Iran is the Middle East’s main
state supporter of terrorism.
The allegations formed a key reason for the United States’
withdrawal with Saudi, United Arab Emirates and Israeli backing from the 2015
international agreement that curbed Iran’s nuclear program and the
re-imposition of crippling economic sanctions.
They also would undermine Saudi and UAE justification of
their 15-month old economic and diplomatic boycott of Qatar that the two Gulf states,
alongside Egypt and Bahrain, accuse of supporting terrorism.
Condemnation and sanctioning of Saudi Arabia by the
international community would complicate Chinese and Russian efforts to walk a
fine line in their attempts to ensure that they are not sucked into the
Saudi-Iranian rivalry.
Russia and China would be at a crossroads if Saudi Arabia
were proven to be responsible for Mr. Khashoggi’s disappearance and the issue
of sanctions would be brought to the United Nations Security Council.
Both Russia and China have so far been able to maintain
close ties to Saudi Arabia despite their efforts to defeat US sanctions against
Iran and Russia’s alliance with the Islamic republic in their support for
Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.
A significantly weakened Saudi Arabia would furthermore
undermine Arab cover provided by the kingdom for Mr. Trump’s efforts to impose
a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that would favour Israel at
the expense of the Palestinians.
Finally, a conclusive determination that Saudi Arabia was
responsible for Mr. Khashoggi’s fate would likely spark renewed debate about
the wisdom of the international community’s support for Arab autocracy that has
proven to be unashamedly brutal in its violation of human rights and disregard
for international law and conventions.
Meanwhile, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has
suffered significant reputational damage irrespective of Mr. Khashoggi’s fate,
raising the question of his viability if Saudi Arabia were condemned internationally
and stability in the kingdom, a key tenant of US, Chinese and Russian Middle
East policy, were to be at risk.
The reputational damage suffered by Prince Mohammed embarrasses
UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, who together with his aides and
representatives in world capitals, worked hard to project his Saudi counterpart
as the kingdom’s future.
Saudi Arabia has so far done itself few favours by
flatly rejecting any responsibility for Mr. Khashoggi’s disappearance
with no evidence that the journalist left the consulate at his own volition; asserting
that claims that it was involved were fabrications by Turkey, Qatar and the
Muslim Brotherhood; seeking to defame
Mr. Khashoggi’s fiancé and supporters; and refusing
to fully cooperate with Turkish investigators.
Saudi reluctance to cooperate as well as the US
investigation and Ms. Cengiz’s expected meeting with Mr. Trump complicate apparent
Turkish efforts to find a resolution of the escalating crisis that
would allow Saudi Arabia to save face and salvage
Turkey’s economic relationship with the kingdom.
Turkey, despite deep policy differences with Saudi Arabia
over Qatar, Iran, and the Muslim Brotherhood, has so far refrained from
statements that go beyond demanding that Saudi Arabia prove its assertion that
Mr. Khashoggi left the Istanbul consulate at his own volition and fully
cooperate with the Turkish investigation.
Reports
by anonymous Turkish officials detailing gruesome details of Mr. Khashoggi’s
alleged murder by Saudi agents appear designed to pressure Saudi
Arabia to comply with the Turkish demands and efforts to manage the crisis.
Widely acclaimed, Mr. Khashoggi’s fate, irrespective of
whether he as yet emerges alive or is proven to have been brutally murdered, is
reshaping the political map of the Middle East. The possibility, if not
likelihood is that he paid a horrendous price for sparking the earthquake that
is already rumbling across the region.
Dr.
James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International
Studies, co-director of the University of Würzburg’s Institute for Fan Culture,
and co-host of the New Books in Middle Eastern Studies podcast.
James is the author of The Turbulent World
of Middle East Soccer blog, a book with the same title and a co-authored
volume, Comparative Political Transitions between Southeast Asia and
the Middle East and North Africa as well as Shifting
Sands, Essays on Sports and Politics in the Middle East and North Africa
and just published China
and the Middle East: Venturing into the Maelstrom
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