|
RSIS Commentary is a
platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant
commentary and analysis of
topical issues and
contemporary developments. The views of the authors are their own and do
not represent the official
position of the S.
Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU. These commentaries may be
reproduced
electronically or in
print with prior permission from RSIS and due recognition to the author(s)
and RSIS.
No.
114/2017 dated 8 June 2017
Gulf Crisis:
Rewriting
the Political Map?
By
James M. Dorsey
Synopsis
A rupture in Arab diplomatic
and economic relations with Qatar as well as the
Gulf state’s involvement with a
Saudi-led, 41-nation Sunni Muslim military
alliance threatens to force
non-Arab Muslim nations as well as China to c
hoose sides.
Commentary
SAUDI ARABIA and the United
Arab Emirates (UAE), by breaking off
diplomatic relations and
seeking to impose an economic boycott of Qatar,
have opened the door to a
rewriting of the political map of the Gulf, with
potentially far-reaching
consequences for nations across the globe.
The dilemma for non-Arab
nations like Malaysia, Indonesia and Pakistan
is most immediate. Qatar’s
expulsion from the 41-nation, Saudi-led, Sunni
Muslim Islamic Military
Alliance to Fight Terrorism complicates their
strenuous efforts to avoid
being sucked into an increasing visceral power
struggle between Saudi Arabia
and Iran. So does the fact that the crisis is
likely to be prolonged given
that Qatari acceptance of Saudi and UAE
demands would not only
humiliate the Gulf state, proud of a history of
charting an independent course
for decades, but also turn it into a vassal
of its bigger Gulf brethren.
Political Fallout
The demands are believed to
include the muzzling if not closing of Qatar-
backed media such as Al
Jazeera, expulsion of leaders of the Muslim
Brotherhood and Hamas, the
Palestinian group that controls the Gaza Strip,
and the limiting of Qatar’s
relations with Iran to issues associated with the
fact that it shares the world’s
largest gas field with the Islamic republic.
The fallout of the crisis in
Asia is likely to be initially more political than
economic. Saudi and UAE
isolation of Qatar could push the Gulf state to
draw closer to Iran, Turkey and
Russia, a move that would increase regional
polarization and could
significantly weaken the Gulf Cooperation Council.
The GCC groups the region’s six
monarchies: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar,
Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain.
Saudi soft power across the
Muslim world is also complicating efforts by
non-Arab Muslim states to
remain on the side lines of the escalating Saudi-
Iranian rivalry and an
increasingly aggressive UAE-driven campaign against
expressions of political Islam
that is now also targeting Qatar.
Decades of Saudi funding in
what amounts to the largest public diplomacy in
history has bought the kingdom
significant influences in branches of
government in multiple Muslim
majority countries.
The timing of the crisis in the
Gulf was for Malaysia, for example, particularly unfortunate. It came weeks
after Malaysian Foreign Minister Datuk Seri
Anifah Aman visited Qatar to
further enhance relations with Qatar. Malaysian
defence minister Datuk Seri
Hishammuddin Hussein had earlier announced
that Malaysia and Qatar were
elevating their diplomatic ties by forming a
High-Level Committee (HLC) to
focus on the structural framework of both
countries' defence
institutions.
Responding to the rupture in
diplomatic relations and the military suspension,
sources close to the Malaysian
foreign ministry said that the government was
advising its agencies to remain
neutral in the dispute. Some sources cautioned
however that the defence and
interior ministries may adopt a more independent
approach.
A Global Boycott?
The dilemma for Pakistan is no
less acute. Pakistan’s diplomatic relations with
Saudi Arabia and the UAE
initially soured after the Pakistani parliament in 2015
rejected a Saudi request for
Pakistani military assistance in Yemen. The
unprecedented decision
ultimately left Pakistan with no choice when the kingdom
two years later asked it to
allow General Raheel Sharif, who had just retired as
chief of army staff, to take
over the command of the Saudi-led military alliance.
Despite insisting that Sharif
would use his position to mediate between Saudi
Arabia and Iran, Pakistan has
seen violence along its volatile border with Iran
increase, relations with the
Islamic republic deteriorate, and prompted calls for
Pakistan to recall Sharif.
Equally worrying for Muslim and
non-Muslim countries like China and
Singapore alike are indications
that Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies may
want to turn their cutting of
air, land and sea links to Qatar into a more
global boycott.
Saudi Arabia’s state-owned
Saudi Press Agency reported that the kingdom
would “start immediate legal
procedures for understanding with fraternal
and friendly countries and
international companies to implement the same
procedure as soon as possible
for all means of transport to and from the State
of Qatar for reasons relating
to Saudi national security”.
The statement appeared to be
referring to Saudi transport links with Qatar
but seemed to hold out the
possibility of Saudi Arabia pressuring its public
and private economic and
commercial partners to follow suit in cutting ties
with the Gulf state. Leaked
emails showed the UAE ambassador in Washington,
Yousef Al Otaiba, campaigning
against Qatar and supporting efforts to
persuade US companies not to
pursue opportunities in Iran. That approach
could be also applied to Qatar.
Rewriting the Gulf Political
Map
The crisis in the Gulf could
also complicate implementation of China’s One
Belt, One Road (OBOR) now known
as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
A potential effort to force
countries to join the boycott adds to Chinese fears
that Saudi Arabia intends to
expand its proxy war with Iran into Balochistan, a
key Pakistani node of OBOR, in
a bid to destabilise Iran.
The crisis could also
complicate Chinese efforts to keep its Middle East policy
in sync with that of the United
States, the major power in the region, if
Washington were to side with
Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
From the perspective of Saudi
Arabia and the UAE, the confrontation with Iran
as well as Qatar is an
existential battle for survival of absolute monarchies. It
increasingly threatens to
become a battle in which they take no prisoners and
adopt a “you are with us or you
are against us” approach that would put Muslim
and non-Muslim nations in a
bind.
The outcome of the Gulf battle,
irrespective of who wins, is likely to rewrite the
political map of the region and
force Muslim and non-Muslim nations to take
stock. The map is already
changing with Turkey and Iran coming to Qatar’s aid
and Turkish troops being
dispatched to the Gulf state. If Qatar survives the battle
with its controversial policies
and media assets intact, it will have put the
limitations of Saudi and UAE
power on public display. By the same token, a
Qatari defeat would allow Saudi
and UAE-inspired sentiment against Iran and
political Islam to reign
supreme.
James M. Dorsey is a Senior
Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies (RSIS),
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore and
co-director of the Institute of
Fan Culture of the University of Wurzburg, Germany.
Click HERE
to read this commentary online.
Nanyang
Technological University
Block S4, Level B3, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 639798
Tel: +65 6790 6982 | Fax: +65 6794 0617 | www.rsis.edu.sg
|
Comments
Post a Comment