Remembering Syria: Iran struggles with potentially explosive environmental crisis
By James M. Dorsey
Iranian leaders are struggling, three
months after anti-government protests swept the Islamic republic, to ensure
that environmental issues that helped sparked a popular uprising in Syria in 2011
leading to a brutal civil war don’t threaten the clergy’s grip on power.
Like Syria, Iran has been confronting a drought that has affected
much of the country for more than a decade with precipitation dropping to
its lowest level in half a century. Environmental concerns have figured
prominently in protests in recent years, often in regions populated by ethnic minorities
like Azeris,
and Iranian
Arabs.
Unrest among ethnic minorities, who
account for almost half of Iran’s population, takes on added significance with
Iran fearing that Saudi Arabia’s activist crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman,
and the Trump administration’s antipathy towards the Islamic republic bolstered
by the appointment of a hardliner, John Bolton, as the president’s national
security advisor.
Mr. Bolton has called for regime
change in Iran, aligning himself with a controversial exile opposition group,
while Prince Mohammed is believed to have tacitly
endorsed thinking about stirring unrest among Iran’s ethnic minorities even
if he has yet to decide whether to adopt subversion as a policy.
Iran has repeatedly accused Saudi Arabia
in the past year of supplying
weapons and explosives to restive groups like the Baluch and the Kurds.
Yet, concern about environmental
degradation and its potential political fallout goes beyond fear that it could
facilitate interference by external powers. Demonstrators in the province of Isfahan
last month clashed with security forces after they took to the streets to protest
water shortages. The protest occurred some three months after Iran was
wracked by weeks of anti-government demonstrations.
The protest was the latest in a series of
expressions of discontent. Anger at plans
in 2013 to divert water from Isfahan province sparked clashes with police. The
Isfahan
Chamber of Commerce reported a year later that the drying out of the
Zayandeh Roud river basin had deprived some 2 million farmers or 40 percent of
the local population in the Zayandeh-Roud basin of their income.
“Over 90% of (Iran’s) population and
economic production are located in areas of high or very high water stress.
This is two to three times the global average in percentage terms, and, in
absolute numbers, it represents more people and more production at risk than
any other country in the Middle East and North Africa,” Al-Monitor
quoted Claudia Sadoff, director general of the Sri Lanka-based International
Water Management Institute, as saying.
A panel of
retired US military officers noted in December that “since the 1979
revolution, the per capita quantity of Iran’s renewable water supplies has
dropped by more than half, to a level commonly associated with the benchmark
for water stress. Even more troubling, in large swaths of the country, demand
for fresh water exceeds supply a third of the year. Fourteen years of drought
have contributed to the problem, as has poor resource management, including
inefficient irrigation techniques, decentralized water management, subsidies for
water-intensive crops like wheat, and dam building. As a result, parts of the
country are experiencing unrest related to water stress.”
By identifying water as one of the
country’s foremost problems, the government recognized that mismanagement leading
to acute water shortages risks becoming a symbol of its inability to efficiently
deliver public goods and services.
The government has sought to tackle the
issue by promoting reduced water consumption and water conservation, halting
construction of dams, combatting evaporation by building underground water
distribution networks, introducing water metres in agriculture, encouraging
farmers to opt for less water-intensive crops, multiplying the number of treatment
plants, and looking at desalination as a way of increasing supply.
With agriculture the main culprit in Iran’s
inefficient use of water, Iranian officials fear that the crisis will accelerate
migration from the countryside to urban centres incapable of catering to the
migrants and, in turn, increase popular discontent.
A US study
suggested in 2015 that decades of unsustainable agricultural policies in Syria;
drought in the north-eastern agricultural heartland of the country; economic
reforms that eliminated food and fuel subsidies; significant population growth;
and failure to adopt policies that mitigate climate change exacerbated
grievances about unemployment, corruption and inequality that exploded in 2011
in anti-government protests in Syria.
The Syrian government’s determination to
crush the protest rather than engage with the protesters sparked the country’s
devastating war, currently the world’s deadliest conflict<.
“We’re not arguing that the drought, or
even human-induced climate change, caused the uprising. What we are saying is
that the long-term trend, of less rainfall and warmer temperatures in the
region, was a contributing factor, because it made the drought so much more
severe.” said Colin
Kelley, one the study’s authors.
“The uprising has…to do with the
government’s failure to respond to the drought, and with broader feelings of
discontent in rural areas, and the growing gap between rich and poor, and urban
and rural areas during the 2000s, than with the drought itself,” added Middle
East water expert Francesca de Chatel.
Adopting a different emphasis, Ms. De
Chatel argued that demonstrations in Syria, despite the drought, would not have
erupted without the wave of protests that by then had already swept the
presidents of Tunisia and Egypt and subsequently toppled the leaders of Libya
and Yemen.
She asserted further that the protest
movement-turned-war in Syria would not “have persisted without input and
support from organised groups in Syria who had been planning for this moment
for years and certainly since before 2006 or the start of the drought.”
For Iranian leaders, the threat is real
irrespective of the difference in emphasis between Mr. Kelly and Ms. De Chatel.
Former Iranian
agriculture minister Issa Kalantari warned in 2015 that left unresolved the
water crisis would force 50 million Iranians to migrate in the next 25 years.
In other words, the environmental crisis
that drives migration and unemployment and fuels discontent risks political
upheaval. Similarly, multiple groups and external powers have for years
contemplated regime change in Tehran.
The issues that were at the core of the
initial protests in Syria in 2011 – unemployment, corruption and inequality –
were at the heart of Iranian anti-government demonstrations in December and
January.
Despite a renewed focus on the water
crisis, the government’s Achilles Heel could prove to be the fact that its
response has included shooting the messenger who bears the bad news as
environmentalists increasingly find themselves in the firing line.
Authorities arrested in January Kavous
Seyed-Emami, a dual Iranian-Canadian nation who directed the Persian
Wildlife Heritage Foundation, and six other environmentalists. It asserted two
weeks later that Mr. Seyed-Emami had committed suicide in jail after confessing
to being a spy for the United States and Israel.
Three more environmentalists were
arrested a month later while Mr.
Seyed-Emami’s wife was prevented from leaving Iran.
State TV subsequently reported that Mr. Seyed-Emami
and his colleagues had told Iran’s enemies that the country could no longer
maintain domestic agriculture production because of water shortages and needed
to import food.
Said Saeed
Leylaz, a Tehran-based economist and political analyst: “Public opinion has
become sensitized to environmental issues. So the government may see the
organizations and institutions who work on environmental issues as
problematic.”
Dr.
James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International
Studies, co-director of the University of Würzburg’s Institute for Fan Culture,
and co-host of the New Books in
Middle Eastern Studies podcast. James is the author of The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer blog, a book with the same title as well
as Comparative
Political Transitions between Southeast Asia and the Middle East and North
Africa,
co-authored with Dr. Teresita Cruz-Del Rosario, Shifting Sands, Essays on Sports and
Politics in the Middle East and North Africa, and
the forthcoming China
and the Middle East: Venturing into the Maelstrom
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