A look at key events of the Israel-Hamas war in the past year

 

Staring at minute 04:18, James discusses the Gaza ceasefire talks on CNA

To watch the video, go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/a-look-at-key-events-of-the-israel

Transcript

[Anchor] Broken truces, unreleased hostages, expanded military operations and accusations of genocide as the Israel-Hamas war enters its third year. We take a look at key events of the conflict in the past year. A chance encounter in southern Gaza meant the end of Israel's enemy number one.

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar marked the second year of the devastating war between Israel and Hamas in the enclave. Israel had identified the 61-year-old as the architect of the October 7th attack that sparked the conflict. In November, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Hamas and Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for alleged war crimes.

By then, the death toll had soared past 44,000, with thousands more injured or missing. But then, a reprieve in January after 15 months of war. A ceasefire deal took effect the same month, resulting in a pause in fighting and the release of Hamas hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.

But that peace was short-lived. Less than a month in, both sides traded accusations of truce violations. In March, Israel again cut off aid to the enclave.

Not long after, it resumed strikes across the Strip and enforced a punishing blockade. In May, it gave the green light for a handful of trucks to resume aid delivery to starving Palestinians. For the United Nations, it was a drop in the ocean.

In August, the UN confirmed a famine in the enclave, a charge Israel denied, while their counter-terrorism efforts were operations in Gaza City. Efforts for a new truce hit a major roadblock in September. Israel struck at the heart of Qatar, targeting Hamas officials who were discussing ceasefire proposals.

A week later, the IDF launched a major ground offensive in Gaza City, forcing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to flee once again. For an independent UN investigating team, it was clear. Last month, several Western nations made clear their support of a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly.

A landmark change in diplomatic tide amid mounting pressure from the International Civil Society. But Israel insists letting an independent Palestinian state exist would be rewarding terrorism. The U.S. president seems to think differently. His 20-point peace plan to end the war includes creating a pathway for a Palestinian state. It means the immediate end to the war itself, not just Gaza. It's the war itself.

Israel has agreed, while Hamas has stopped short of accepting it unconditionally. It may be the closest both sides have come to a permanent ceasefire. But an air of uncertainty lingers as the war enters its third year.

I'm joined by James M. Dorsey. He is Adjunct Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University here in Singapore.

Dr. Dorsey, 20 points, this peace plan by U.S. President Donald Trump. For you, the word plan in this instance might be a misnomer.

[James M. Dorsey] Indeed, so what we have is a set of principles that would guide ending the war and theoretically eventually ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The problem here is severalfold. First of all, there are no terms for the implementation of those principles, nor is there a mechanism suggested how these terms would be implemented.

I think the second thing is that despite the overall and general acceptance of the plan, nobody really likes the principles as they are stated. However, they are the only game in town. And equally importantly, they involve the engagement of the single most important player in all of this, the U.S. President Trump. All right. Dr. Dorsey, if no one likes the deal, but they still have to sign up to the deal, does it matter whether or not they in fact like it, whether or not they agree or disagree, as long as they agree to the terms of any ceasefire? Well, that's the whole issue, if you wish.

We have the principles and what we're seeing at the moment in the negotiations that are going on in Cairo is trying to negotiate the terms of this. So you have on the one side Hamas, which says we're willing to exchange the Hamas held captives who were taken, who were abducted on October 7 two years ago during the Hamas attack in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, but equally importantly, in exchange for a permanent end to the war and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. On the other hand, what we're seeing from the Israelis are that their acceptance at this point involves focussing on the release of the Hamas held captives rather than on what that would entail and how to get to the release of those captives.

[Anchor] So there's a huge gap and there's no indication at this point, despite the optimism, that that gap is being bridged. It stands to reason that either side, each with its own vested and likely contradictory interests, is likely to be emphasising what they want to see and downplaying what they do not want to see. Is there any overlap in terms of what they might agree with, even if they might not like to agree to those terms?

[James M. Dorsey] Let's put it this way. I have little doubt that the Palestinians want to see an end to this. I think there's a question mark whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to see an end to this.

There are reports that it took some arm twisting by the U.S. president to get Netanyahu to at least nominally accept the plan. But unless you can agree on the terms of release of captives and release of prisoners and on the terms of what a process, a ceasefire would entail, it's going to be very difficult to bring the two sides together. Our pressure from Washington likely exacerbated by irritation from the White House when Israel chose to bomb Qatar, even as Hamas was looking closely at that proposal from Steve Whitcock, U.S. special envoy, and that quite clearly frustrated President Trump. U.S. pressure, should the U.S. choose to exert that pressure, could that make the difference in Prime Minister Netanyahu actually going the extra mile to sign this agreement? Qatar may have been the straw that broke the camel's back, but we've seen moments of frustration, irritation on the part of Trump towards Netanyahu actually from the beginning of his second term in office. The real question is, and that's what I think is missing at the moment in Cairo, is whether or not Trump is going to exert the kind of pressure that is going to force Netanyahu to end this war.

What we're right now seeing in Cairo is the Egyptians and the Qataris negotiating with Hamas and the Israelis standing by, and that's not a very hopeful indication. On the question of whether U.S. pressure on Israel would make the difference, if the U.S. were to take real measures, that is to partially at least impose a weapons embargo, curtail financial aid, be more cooperative with other parties in the United Nations Security Council, that's pressure that the Israeli prime minister cannot ignore. So we look at progress from these talks and certainly what's happened in the last few days, including continued bombardment by Israel of Gaza, despite Washington demanding an end to any strikes so that these talks can proceed as they should.

[Anchor] What does that tell you in terms of where Washington is really putting the pressure?

[James M. Dorsey] Well, I think one has to be careful with jumping to conclusions, but certainly first impressions are that the pressure is at this moment on Hamas and that if the talks were to fail, in a sense, Hamas is being set up to be the fall guy. And indeed, the fact that Trump on Friday clearly said, I want the bombings to stop now, and it's now Tuesday, and those bombings continue, even if they may be less intense, is an indication or can be construed as an indication that Trump may not want to go all the way in pressuring Netanyahu.

[Anchor] And a final question here, Dr. Dorsey, do you see, as some hope, perhaps you might find incremental progress, so achieving first phase progress and results, for example, exchange of prisoners, release of prisoners, hostages on one side, prisoners on the other, and building on that to larger and far more complicated agreements of withdrawal and governance of the Gaza Strip? Is that even a realistic hope? Incremental progress.

[James M. Dorsey] The fact that the talks are taking place is in and of itself hopeful. There's no question about that.

However, the captives that Hamas holds is its major trump card at this moment. It's highly unlikely that Hamas will surrender all of those trump cards. In other words, 48 Hamas-held captives, whether dead or alive, without having guarantees for an end to the war and an Israeli withdrawal.

[Anchor] Are there interim measures possible? Yes, it's possible. Will Israel and the United States agree at this point to a partial release of captives?

[James M. Dorsey] Hard to say. Both Trump and Netanyahu have insisted that all captives need to be released at this point in one go.

[Anchor] Thanks, James M. Dorsey, the Adjunct Senior Fellow at the S.Rajaram School of International Studies right here in Singapore at NTU.