Ceasefire approved but is peace in sight?

 

Israel has approved a ceasefire deal with Hamas. But with one explosion reported in Gaza hours after the deal was passed, can we still expect peace as Israel begins withdrawing from parts of Gaza? Lance Alexander and Daniel Martin speak with correspondent Blake Sifton and James M. Dorsey, Adjunct Senior Fellow, RSIS

To listen to the podcast, go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/ceasefire-approved-but-is-peace-in

[Anchor] It's a Singapore Today top story with Lance and Daniel on CNA 938. Israel has approved a ceasefire deal with Palestinian militant group Hamas. This clears the way to suspend hostilities in Gaza within 24 hours and free Israeli hostages held there within 72 hours after that.

The Israeli cabinet agreed to the deal roughly 24 hours after mediators announced an agreement to free Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. But with one explosion reported in Gaza hours after the deal was passed, how secure will this period of peace truly be? Before we go to our Middle East expert for insights, let's get the latest from Blake Sifton, who joins us from Tel Aviv in Israel.

Blake, with this ceasefire now in effect, are we still expecting a hold on hostilities in Gaza within 24 hours and Israeli hostages to be freed within 72 hours after that?

[Blake Sifton] Good evening. So the deal has only just begun, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty. Now, according to the deal as it was signed, as we understand, the ceasefire was meant to come into effect the moment the Israeli government signed off on it.

So that would have been early this morning. Now, however, there's been, yesterday a government spokesperson said it would be within 24 hours. Now, there has been tank shelling and gunfire in Khan Yunis.

And so we'll see whether it ends sooner than the 24-hour period they outlined. Now, what we do know, hostages are withdrawing as we speak. They are expected to complete their withdrawal sometime today.

And once they have completed that withdrawal, within 72 hours of that period, that's when the clock starts ticking on the release of the hostages. Hamas must release all 48 hostages, living and dead. We understand that there may be some flexibility on returning the bodies of the hostages because it may be difficult for Hamas to find them or access them because they could be buried under rubble.

Now, when it comes to the release of the live hostages, the living hostages, we understand that they will be handed to the Red Cross. The Red Cross will then deliver them to Israeli forces inside Gaza. They'll then be taken out of Gaza into Israel and be taken to hospitals.

Now, it's going to be very different than the previous hostage releases we've seen. There will be no ceremonies by Hamas. There will be no spectacles.

[Anchor] Quick point, Blake, before we tap out with you. We just want to know, as you've just described, there are many phases, many timelines, many milestones to this agreement. What can we expect right now with the earliest phase, with phase one, and is everything in line with what needs to happen for it to happen?

[Blake Sifton] Yes, this phase is looking good. I think it's important to note that this is really more at this stage of a ceasefire agreement, which we've had before, hostage release, prisoner exchange for a ceasefire. But what's being envisioned by President Trump is a comprehensive peace plan.

That would be discussed and negotiated in later phases, and that will be much more challenging to overcome. But this part, we're on track.

[Anchor] We'll leave it there with Blake. Blake, thank you very much. We understand it's probably very difficult getting that signal out of where you are right now.

He's reporting to us live from Tel Aviv in Israel, Blake Sifton, our correspondent. We're understanding the Israel-Gaza ceasefire deal that is kicking in real time, actually, as we speak here on Singapore Today. We're joined by James Dorsey, Adjunct Senior Fellow at RSIS, to break down the latest developments around this landmark ceasefire deal.

James, let's talk about the main factors that really pushed both sides towards accepting this time round. What was it about October in 2025? Was it because it was the anniversary of the initial October 7th attack?

Was it because of strains and resources on either side? Was it because, potentially, of agreements made behind the scenes between the Americans and the Iranians and the Saudis or the Israelis that we know of? What do you think finally pushed both sides to accept?

[James M. Dorsey] It may have been a bit of your last point. I don't think it was anything of the other points. I think the key issue here is that Donald Trump put his foot down and put his name to this, put his foot down.

And therefore, it's Donald Trump's credibility on the line, in part. Nobody in the Middle East wants to cross Donald Trump. And even if they were unhappy with aspects of the proposal that he put on the table, they were not going to go against it.

So I think that's one reason for it. And as a result of that, I think there was pressure on Hamas to concede, certainly, on the hostage issue, in a sense. I think what various Arab states were arguing is that the hostages which had given Hamas leverage until now were turning into a liability for the group.

And at the same time, Hamas has made some major concessions here. There is no irrevocable link between the release of all the hostages and a permanent end to the war, and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Hamas is basically betting on Trump following through, remaining engaged, and following through in terms of saying that this is the end of the war, and that this has to lead to a process.

[Anchor] Mr. Dorsey, this is such a fragile truce, and it's a long road ahead of us. A brief statement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said the cabinet approved the outline of a deal to release the hostages, without mentioning other aspects of the plan that are quite controversial. Is there a concern once hostages dead or alive are released, Israel could perhaps start something and breach that ceasefire?

[James M. Dorsey] There's definitely a concern. It's very clear that what Netanyahu has done is he wants the hostages back. He doesn't want an end to the war.

He's been forced into this. Now, having said that, or let me put it differently, Netanyahu's history is one of breaking deals in this war, is one of manipulating the situation so that he can continue the war. That could very well remain the case, but it's equally possible that Netanyahu will see an advantage in this, in terms of we're about a year away from scheduled elections in Israel.

And Netanyahu has to start taking that into account. Keep in mind that a majority of Israelis want to see this war ended, first and foremost because of the hostages, but also because the country's become tired. It's cost the country a great deal.

And they don't see the sense of this war, even though they may share Netanyahu's war goals in terms of Hamas and the Palestinians. And one option for Netanyahu, although this is pure speculation, is that he would go for a snap election or an early election because he now has a success in bringing the hostages home.

[Anchor] You mentioned the idea that he has a history of pulling out of or not following through on these agreements. We've seen reports of an explosion in Gaza just hours after the deal was passed. Already, how fragile would you say this ceasefire looks?

[James M. Dorsey] Well, first of all, I think, let's be clear, as your correspondent mentioned earlier, there's a contradiction in terms of what the agreement or the proposal says and what is happening on the ground. With other words, the guns should have fallen silent last night. They didn't.

The Israelis said they need 24 hours. While the cabinet was meeting and throughout the night, there was more than one explosion. There was tank fire.

There were bombings, not quite at the scale as they had been before, but they were there. So I wouldn't just write on this one explosion. This is fragile, and it will remain fragile throughout.

[Anchor] What of the other Middle Eastern nations, there may be a ceasefire currently on in Gaza, but could Israel continue conducting military action in countries like Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran?

[James M. Dorsey] Israel acts with impunity, yes, it could, and it may very well. I mean, this is a ceasefire that is exclusively regarding Gaza. It's not even regarding the West Bank, where you have significant problems.

So if Israel felt that there was or felt that there was a need for a strike in southern Lebanon or in Lebanon as such, something it's been doing since the ceasefire that was concluded with Hezbollah in November of last year, or if it feels that it needs to strike in Syria or in Iran, Israel will do so, Gaza ceasefire or not.

[Anchor] Do you think that everything could change or pivot if and when the hostages are fully returned?

[James M. Dorsey] I don't think anything fundamentally pivots. The problem remains what it is. Without Hamas-held hostages and without Palestinians incarcerated in Israel, this is a conflict of the fundaments of which go far beyond captives and prisoners.

[Anchor] Okay, let me rephrase. Do you think that at the point where the hostages are returned fully, that it would be the opportunity for Israel to back out of the rest of the agreement?

[James M. Dorsey] Absolutely. I mean, that's what the fear is, and that's where the engagement of Donald Trump is going to be crucial. Again, Netanyahu may have reasons to stay in the agreement for a while.

Fact of the matter is, however, that the notion of opposition to an independent Palestinian state is something that goes far beyond Benjamin Netanyahu, far beyond the far-right, ultra-nationalist elements in his cabinet. There's a lot of popular support for things like depopulation of Gaza, even if there may not be popular support to act on that now. So yes, Netanyahu could at any point in which he thinks it's politically convenient, he could opt to move out of this agreement.

The question is to what degree he's willing to take on a confrontation with Donald Trump.

[Anchor] Mr. Dorsey, you mentioned the West Bank. So what happens now? Because we know U.S. President Donald Trump has said he will not allow Israel to annex the occupied West Bank. We already know half a million Israeli settlers are there in the West Bank. It's considered illegal by the International Court of Justice. What happens there?

[James M. Dorsey] Unless there is a credible process, and I don't see that happening, which would have to involve land swaps, a halt to further Israeli settlement on the West Bank, nothing happens. With other words, it remains the same. One of the most crucial points right now is that Israel several weeks ago said it was going to start construction of more than, I think, 3,000 housing units in what is called the E1 sector.

The E1 sector is a sector that extends out of Jerusalem into the West Bank and for all practical purposes cuts the territory in two, which would mean that if that project goes ahead, putting together a contiguous Palestinian state is going to be very difficult.

[Anchor] Looking at it from the U.S. perspective right now, politically, how important is this for U.S. President Donald Trump to hold together, taking into account the U.S. government shutdown, taking into account the global tariff war that exists right now, amongst his own supporters, amongst his own political base, how important is it for him to hold it together as it is written in the agreement?

[James M. Dorsey] Well, obviously, Trump has a lot of fish to fry and some very big ones. Having said that, you've seen a significant shift in public opinion, as well as within Trump's own Make America Great Again support base, a shift that is far more critical of Israel, that wants to see an end to the Gaza war. And therefore, that's something that Trump has to take into account, even if he has a lot on his plate.

Now, what happens when you no longer get the pictures out of Gaza that we've had from the hospitals with no provisions and so on? That's an open question. One of the issues, of course, is going to be that Israel will presumably want to control and severely limit access to the Gaza Strip, particularly by the international media, because they don't want the pictures of the devastation that they've caused to be broadcast around and independent interviewing of Palestinians on the ground.

[Anchor] What happens to the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu? We know he's up for corruption charges. Like you said, fresh elections are due next year, if I'm not mistaken.

Will he still stay in power, you think, if there is truce and it holds?

[James M. Dorsey] I think we still have to wait and see what impact the ceasefire and the release of the hostages are going to have on Netanyahu's polling. At this point, he is unlikely to become the next prime minister. Now, the one thing I think one has to caution about, which is that, you know, the next prime minister of Israel will not necessarily be a panacea.

He obviously may not have the narcissistic elements of Netanyahu's personality. But fundamentally, policy may not—and he may also be more willing to avoid open confrontation with the international community. But fundamentally, those policies are not going to be that different.

[Anchor] With this ceasefire, will we finally see humanitarian aid getting into Gaza?

[James M. Dorsey] I think we're going to see that immediately. I would expect that to kick in any minute. And that's obviously enormously crucial for Palestinians in Gaza.

But I think that's one of the first things that we'll see alongside the exchange of hostages and prisoners.

[Anchor] Thank you, James Dorsey, who is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at RSIS. This has been a Top Singapore Today story.