Can the Gaza ceasefire agreement hold?

 

James M. Dorsey from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies weighs in on the Israel-Hamas Gaza ceasefire deal and discusses whether Israel will commit to the agreement.

To watch the video, go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/can-the-gaza-ceasefire-agreement

[Auskar Surbakti] James M. Dorsey is an adjunct senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Really good to have you back with us, James.

This has been a long time in the making. We have another ceasefire deal that's been agreed upon by all parties. As we heard from Nizar, a number of nations including Turkey, the United States and Qatar are guarantors of this deal.

Are you hopeful that this deal will last?

[James M. Dorsey] Oscar, good to be with you. I think, as a number of analysts have suggested, we're going to see a ceasefire. The question is for how long.

We're going to see the release of Amash-held captives in exchange for Palestinians incarcerated by Israel. First of all, we don't know exactly what the modalities of all of this are. It seems—one must assume that even though the modalities have not been announced, they have been agreed upon, which I think is encouraging to believe that this first phase of the agreement will take place.

What happens after that is anybody's question. In other words, we don't know that Israel is going to be committed to this agreement. Israel has been clear from the beginning that it was forced to sign on to the Trump 20-point proposal.

At the same time, Hamas is probably not going to be very happy with this. Hamas is putting its trust in the fact that President Trump, the U.S. president, has pressured Netanyahu to enter into this agreement, and has committed that Israel will stop the war in Gaza and will cooperate in executing the rest of the 20 plans. And in a sense, he's given his guarantee by saying that he will remain engaged in putting his credibility with this agreement on the line.

But we're going to have to wait and see how that all plays out.

[Auskar Surbakti] Yes, and a number of people have agreed, like you have, that Trump has been a key figure in this second ceasefire deal. Is there an element of self-interest here on his part? We know he's made no secret of the fact that he's vying for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Do you think that has had a part to play in this?

[James M. Dorsey] I have no doubt about it. He projects himself as a peacemaker. He prides himself on having already resolved seven conflicts in his statement since he came back into office in January.

But the two major conflicts, Ukraine and Gaza, have eluded him until now. And so, securing a ceasefire in Gaza is a major achievement. I think we've got to keep in mind that this would not have happened without Donald Trump.

Now, it also would not have happened without the other mediators—Ghatta, Egypt, Turkey. It would not have happened with both the Israeli public, the Palestinian public, and, for that matter, much of the American public wanting to see this conflict, this war, end. But, as with anything, Donald Trump is going to exploit this for his political and personal interests.

[Auskar Surbakti] Yes, you mentioned the pressure that Israel had faced both internally and externally. It seemed, though, for a while that the Israeli government simply didn't care about the growing calls and condemnation over its genocide in Gaza. Has that played a part in getting Israel to come on board to this deal, do you think, the growing international pressure, as well as the pressure at home?

[James M. Dorsey] I think it played a part in Donald Trump's calculations. I'm not sure it played a part in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's calculations. He has been immune to the enormous reputational damage that Israel has suffered as a result of its conduct of the war.

And it's going to take Israel quite a bit, despite Trump's promise that he wanted to help Israel repair its image. It's going to take a long time and quite a bit of work. I think that if Netanyahu had had his way, this war would continue.

[Auskar Surbakti] Okay. James M. Dorsey, thank you, as always, for joining us on the programme.

[James M. Dorsey] Always a pleasure. Thank you for having me.