Israeli security demands threaten to upset Syria’s apple cart

 

By James M. Dorsey

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Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has reduced his security toolkit to overwhelming military force and landgrabs.

Following on the heels of Israel’s devastation of Gaza, weakening of Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, and assault on Palestinian refugee camps in the West Bank, Mr. Netanyahu is now demanding that the Syrian army and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the insurgent group that led the ouster of former President Bashar al-Assad, refrain from deploying south of the capital Damascus.

“We demand the complete demilitarization of southern Syria in the provinces of Quneitra, Daraa, and Suwayda from the forces of the new regime. Likewise, we will not tolerate any threat to the Druze community in southern Syria,” Mr. Netanyahu said.

Earlier, Israel insisted it would remain for the foreseeable future on Syrian territory beyond the Golan Heights, occupied in the 1967 Middle East war. Israeli troops moved into a United Nations buffer zone in Syria immediately after Mr. Al-Assad’s overthrow.

Satellite images show that the military has established at least seven new outposts in the buffer zone.

Mr. Netanyahu presumably believes that Western caution towards the new Syrian government gives him a degree of cover.

Western nations have shied away from lifting all sanctions imposed on Mr. Al-Assad’s Syria because it supported militant groups and brutal civil war conduct.

Even so, Europe and the United States have eased sanctions, saying a complete lifting would depend on Mr. Al-Sharaa keeping his promise of an inclusive, more moderate Syria.

This week, Mr. Al-Sharaa opened a national dialogue conference to discuss a new path for the nation, which will shape the drafting of a new constitution, new economic frameworks, and a plan for institutional reform.

Meanwhile, Israel’s most-watched commercial television channel, Keshet 12, provided insights to support Mr. Netanyahu’s demand.

Channel 12 journalist Italy Anghel highlighted Mr. Netanyahu’s security concerns by filming his unfettered and uncontrolled access to abandoned Syrian military bases, including “secret Syrian facilities hidden for years,” and Iranian command centres.

Israeli journalist visits Syrian military base. Source: Keshet 12

“I cannot believe myself as an Israeli that I can walk around here. Everything here is available; I can even take the warheads of the missiles.” Mr. Anghel said.

What is unavailable may be equally important, and Israel may dangle a potential hook in front of Mr. Al-Sharaa.

Although it is unthinkable at the moment that the Gaza ceasefire is on the verge of breaking down and Mr. Netanyahu threatens to resume the war, the prime minister could offer to help transitional Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa tackle Syria’s severe electricity shortage.

Gas pipelines between Israel, Jordan, and Egypt. Credit: Haaretz

Israel pumps gas through Jordan to Egypt, where it was previously reexported to Jordan as “Egyptian gas.”

Washington Institute for Near East Policy energy scholar Simon Henderson noted that a 2021 study established that, technically, the gas could be pumped from Jordan to Syria under the same label.

Energy will be a high priority for Mr. Al-Sharaa when he visits Jordan this week for talks with King Abdullah.

Despite his jihadist past, Mr. Al-Sharaa has responded cautiously to Israel’s encroachment on his country’s territory.

While calling on Israel to withdraw from territory it grabbed since Mr. Al-Assad’s fall, Mr. Al-Sharaa has tried to reassure Israel that he does not want conflict and will not allow Syria to be a base for attacks against Israel.

Members of the Druze community, a heretic Muslim sect that populates areas Israel has occupied since Mr. Al-Assad's fall and the Golan Heights, have complained that Mr. Al-Sharaa has ignored their plight despite initial contacts with the new government.

Meanwhile, Israel is developing a pilot program that would allow Syrian Druze to work in construction and agriculture on the Golan Heights.

Israel annexed the Heights in 1981. US President Donald J. Trump recognised the annexation during his first term in office.

While calling on Israel to withdraw from territory it grabbed since Mr. Al-Assad’s fall, Mr. Al-Sharaa has tried to reassure Israel that he does not want conflict and will not allow Syria to be a base for attacks against Israel.

Members of the Druze community, a heretic Muslim sect that populates areas Israel has occupied since Mr. Al-Assad's fall and the Golan Heights, have complained that Mr. Al-Sharaa has ignored their plight despite initial contacts with the new government.

Meanwhile, Israel is developing a pilot program that would allow Syrian Druze to work in construction and agriculture on the Golan Heights.

Israel annexed the Heights in 1981. US President Donald J. Trump recognised the annexation during his first term in office.

With Mr. Al-Sharaa struggling to establish control of Kurdish-dominated and Turkish-occupied areas in northern Syria and ensuring the Druze and Alawites, followers of the Shiite Muslim sect from which Mr. Al-Assad hails, have a stake in the new Syria, Israeli officials have called for support of the Kurds.

Countering Turkish demands that the United States withdraw its 2,000 troops from Syria, Israel has insisted they remain to maintain the fight against the Islamic State.

Turkey has long opposed US support for the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that provided the ground troops in confrontations with the Islamic State.

Turkey asserts that the SDF is an extension of the outlawed Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) and its Syrian arm that has waged a four-decade-long low-intensity war in southeastern Turkey.

Although he initially favoured withdrawing the US troops, Mr. Trump backed down on recalling them during his first term in office. It is unclear whether the president will follow his instincts in his current term.

The SDF controls oil-producing areas and the Euphrates, Tabqa, and Tishreen dams, which supply electricity to a quarter of Syria.

SDF commander Mazloum Abdi said he and Mr. Al-Sharaa agreed on “general principles,” including integrating his Forces into the new Syrian military and the notion of a unified Syria, but disagreed on the “practical details.”

The SDF wants autonomy for Kurds in a federated Syria and wants the Syrian military to absorb the Forces as a bloc. Most other rebel groups have disbanded and disarmed, with fighters joining the military as individuals. Moreover, Mr. Al-Sharaa wants a unitary, not a federated Syria.

“A unified army is not an option; it’s necessary,” Mr. Al-Sharaa told the national dialogue conference in Damascus.

For Mr. Abdi, the differences with Mr. Al-Sharaa were substantial enough to stay away from the conference.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.