UAE emerges as the United States and Israel’s best Arab friend

 

By James M. Dorsey

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With Arab leaders gathering in Cairo later this month for an emergency summit on Gaza, the United Arab Emirates has emerged as the United States and Israel’s best Arab friend.

Almost alone among Arab states, the UAE has called for engaging with US President Donald J. Trump on his Gaza resettlement plan that calls for moving out the majority of the Strip’s 2.3 million Palestinian residents and turning it into a high-end beachfront real estate development.

Instead of rejecting the plan outright, the UAE has suggested that the Arab summit focus on its rejection of the resettlement aspect of the plan while reiterating that the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel is the only way of achieving sustainable Israeli-Palestinian peace.

Yousef al-Otaiba. Credit: Middle East Eye

Yousef al-Otaiba, the UAE's ambassador in Washington, described Mr. Trump's plan as "difficult" and "challenging." But when asked whether the UAE was working on a plan for Gaza, Mr. Al-Otaiba responded, "Not yet. I don't see an alternative to what's being proposed. I really don't. And so, if someone has one, we're happy to discuss it. We're happy to explore it. But it hasn't surfaced yet."

Seemingly, the UAE’s approach is getting legs. At the United Nations, Kuwaiti ambassador Tareq M. A. M. AlBanai engaged with Mr. Trump’s vision of a Gazan Riviera instead of confronting it outright.

“We, the Arab countries, want to see a Riveria, a Palestinian Gazan Riveria, in the independent and internationally recognized State of Palestine,” Mr. AlBanai said.

In essence, the UAE, and increasingly other Arab countries, appear to be taking a leaf out of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s handling of Mr. Trump.

Ms. Sheinbaum set an example of how to curb Mr. Trump's worst instincts when she, earlier this month, using a combination of toughness and a willingness to play ball, persuaded the president not to impose tariffs, at least temporarily.

In doing so, the UAE, despite Mr. Al-Otaiba’s denial, appears to be responding to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s assertion that Mr. Trump’s plan was not cast in stone. On the eve of his first visit to the Middle East, which includes stops in Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, Mr. Rubio urged Arab states to devise a plan of their own.

“Right now, the only plan — they don’t like it — but the only plan is the Trump plan. So, if they’ve got a better plan, now’s the time to present it... Hopefully, they’re going to have a really good plan to present (to) the president,” Mr. Rubio said.

In the Oval Office last week with Mr. Trump at his side, King Abdullah of Jordan said Egypt would present to the US president a "comprehensive vision" for the reconstruction of Gaza that guarantees Palestinians the right to stay on their land.

King Abdullah said Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman invited Egypt, the UAE, and Jordan to meet in Riyadh in advance of the Arab summit scheduled for February 27 to discuss the plan drafted by an Egyptian military committee as far back as May of last year that, according to Arab diplomats, would sideline Hamas.

King Abdullah made no mention of a Palestinian representation at the Riyadh meeting.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty visited Washington this week and shared the draft plan with Mr. Rubio.

Leaping forward, the UAE discussed with the United States and Israel before Mr. Trump disclosed his controversial plan the Emirates’ willingness to participate in a post-war interim administration of Gaza, again without any Palestinian involvement in the exchanges.

The UAE’s approach is grounded in more than hard-headed realism that tries to row with the oars it has.

With Hamas in Gaza, it is also rooted in deep-seated opposition to any expression of political Islam, an apparent willingness to shield Israel and maintain a close security relationship with the Jewish state despite the UAE’s criticism of Israeli policies.

Emirates Leaks, an anonymous Arizona-registered anti-Emirati website, alleged this month that the UAE had offered to invest billions of dollars in oil refineries if South Africa dropped its genocide case against Israel in the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The allegation could not be independently confirmed.

Similarly, the UAE last year reportedly warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad while he was still in power not to intervene in the Gaza war or allow attacks on Israel from Syrian soil.

The UAE’s policy is in part competition with Qatar, which seeks to reconcile President Mahmoud Abbas’s West Bank-based, internationally recognised Palestine Authority with Hamas. The UAE would like to position Mohammed Dahlan, a Gaza-born, Abu Dhabi-based former Palestinian security chief, as a major player in Gaza’s future.

The policy further seeks to capitalise on Saudi Arabia’s more visceral response to Mr. Trump’s plan, Israel’s war conduct, and the US president’s effort to decrease world oil prices by encouraging increased US production to ensure that the UAE is in Mr. Trump’s good books.

Hamas has said it was willing to cede government in Gaza to a national committee provided it had a say in choosing its members. However, Hamas warned that it would not accept the deployment of foreign forces in Gaza without its consent.

The discussion in Riyadh was likely to centre on an Egyptian suggestion to create a post-war administration made up of Gazan technocrats backed up by an Arab-trained Palestinian security force. Egypt would convene a donor conference to secure funding for the administration and reconstruction of the Strip.

Mobile homes and heavy equipment line up at the Egypt-Gaza border. Credit: Eye on Palestine

To counter Mr. Trump’s resettlement proposal, the Egyptian plan envisions setting up "safe zones" in Gaza, furnished with mobile homes and tents to be brought into the Strips while reconstruction is underway.

The notion of safe zones is one reason why Hamas this week briefly suspended prisoner exchanges, charging that Israel had violated the ceasefire by refusing to allow aid trucks into Gaza that carry mobile homes, tents, and heavy machinery. The trucks were lined up on the Egyptian side of the border with Gaza.

The Palestine Authority submitted in advance of the Arab summit a US$31 billion five-year plan for the reconstruction of Gaza in three phases. The first phase would address Gazans’ immediate needs in a territory in which Israel destroyed or damaged much of the housing stock and critical infrastructure.

In a twist of irony, the Palestinian plan, like an outline proposed last year by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, incorporates elements of a plan drafted by George Washington University economist Joseph Pelzman that inspired Mr. Trump’s thinking.

In a paper entitled, ‘An Economic Plan for Rebuilding Gaza: A BOT Approach,’ Mr. Pelzman proposed turning Gaza into a shareholding with a 50-year lease. The residents’ sovereignty would be discussed only when the lease expires.

The shareholding would operate on the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) principle, according to which private companies construct and operate projects for several decades, after which ownership is transferred to a public authority.

Mr. Pelzman envisioned the development of beachfront hotels, restaurants and other tourist attractions in a future Gaza economy that would be based on tourism, agriculture, and high tech “because a lot of (Gazan Palestinians) are smart.”

To realise his vision, Mr. Pelzman said, “It requires that the place be completely emptied out. I mean, literally emptied out, dug up from scratch.”

The joker is that Gazans’ aspirations are not part of the calculus. Even worse, the results of a just-published opinion poll do not bode well for the sustainability of either immediate, post-war governance arrangements in Gaza or the prospects of a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The survey shows that Hamas has lost much of its popular appeal, but other contenders, including the Palestine Authority, fare even worse.

Israel’s 15-month-long assault on Gaza, rather than beating Gazans into submission, has weakened support for a two-state solution in favour of more maximalist solutions for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Support for two states dropped from 80 per cent of those surveyed before the war to 48 per cent, 47 per cent favoured the demise of Israel, and only five per cent opted for a one state solution in which Jews and Palestinians would have equal rights.

“Israel may be further from pacifying Gaza than ever. This is not just because Israel has failed to offer anything resembling a political strategy or a plausible plan for a Palestinian future while further radicalizing Palestinians to seek revenge for relatives killed and homes lost. It is also because Gazans…believe that their identity and place in the world are more imperilled than ever: a sentiment not unlike the one that inspired the establishment of the Jewish state and fostered its people’s still intense will to fight,” said Scott Atran and Angel Gomez, two of the poll’s managers.

Hamas appeared to cater to public opinion by setting up a stage in Khan Younis for the latest release of Israeli hostages that featured a picture of assassinated Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar looking at Jerusalem’s Temple Mount or Haram ash-Sharif with the caption in English, Hebrew, and Arabic, saying “No migration except to Jerusalem.”

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.