Trump’s Gaza plan turns the Middle East on its head

 

By James M. Dorsey

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US President Donald J. Trump’s plan to expel Palestinians and take control of Gaza threatens to render second phase ceasefire negotiations to the dustbin of history and kill prospects for Saudi recognition of Israel.

So has Mr. Trump’s suggestion that he would decide in the next month whether to endorse Israeli annexation of the West Bank occupied by Israel since 1967.

Mr. Trump’s propositions take Palestinian aspirations off the table. They fulfill visiting Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s wildest dreams.

For starters, the propositions are likely to consolidate ultra-nationalist support for Mr. Netanyahu's government, which had been weakened by the prime minister's acceptance of the ceasefire.

"A lot of plans change with time," Mr Trump noted when asked before Mr. Netanyahu arrived at the White House if he was still committed to a plan like the one he laid out in 2020 that called for a Palestinian state.

Disregarding international law, Mr. Trump asserted in a White House press conference with Mr. Netanyahu that the United States would take ownership of Gaza and turn it into a regional beach resort. Gazans would be resettled in whichever states accept them.

Mr. Trump seems to live in a world satirically depicted by songwriter Randy Newman whose 1972 track, Political Science, suggested a similar approach to the world at large.

“No one likes us. I don't know why. We may not be perfect. But heaven knows we try. But all around, even our old friends put us down. Let's drop the big one. And see what happens.“ Mr. Newman’s lyrics read.

Mr. Trump’s remarks suggested that there was no daylight between the president, Mr. Netanyahu, and Israel’s ultra-nationalists when it comes to the endgame in the Middle East: US and Israeli control of Palestinian lands.

In his press conference, Mr. Trump’s only mention of a Palestinian state was to deny that Saudi Arabia insists it will only establish diplomatic relations with Israel if Israel commits credibly and irrevocably to the creation of an independent Palestinian state.

“Everyone is demanding one thing — peace,” Mr. Trump said.

Mr. Trump’s remarks strengthened Mr. Netanyahu and his ultra-nationalist allies in their rejection of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

For their part, Egypt and Jordan have repeatedly rejected Mr. Trump’s suggestion that the bulk of the Gazans be resettled on their territory.

Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry wasted no time in responding to Mr. Trump, reiterating in a statement that Saudi Arabia would not establish ties with Israel without the creation of a Palestinian state.

The statement said Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had affirmed the kingdom's position in “a clear and explicit manner” that does not allow for any interpretation under any circumstance.

Beyond jeopardising prospects for Saudi recognition of Israel, Mr. Trump’s propositions will likely end the president’s discussions with Mr. Bin Salman about up to US$1 trillion in Saudi investments in the United States in the next four years.

Credit: The Daily Upside

Some Arab and Palestinian officials hope that the loss of those investment prospects, coupled with Mr. Trump’s inability to implement his Gaza plan, will prompt the president to rethink.

They noted that Mr. Netanyahu may have been Mr. Trump’s first foreign visitor since his return to the Oval Office, but not his first phone call with a foreign leader. Mr. Trump accorded that honour to Mr. Bin Salman.

Even so, Mr. Trump implicitly suggested that his proposition would resolve the core issues to be negotiated in the second phase talks, making the ceasefire permanent rather than temporary and determining who should administer post-war Gaza.

The opposite is true. With Palestinians, the rest of the Middle East, and much of the international community, unlikely to endorse Mr. Trump’s proposition, Gaza is likely to witness another round of ruthless violence.

Mr. Trump said as much, warning that a Hamas failure to release in the second and third phases of the ceasefire all remaining hostages abducted during its October 7, 2023, attack on Israel “will just make us somewhat more violent. I will tell you that. Because they would have broken their word.”

Ahmad Saadat and Marwan Barghouti

Mr. Netanyahu could use any number of issues to collapse the second phase ceasefire talks, and resume the war, including an insistence by Hamas that Israel free as part of the prisoner exchanges its most prominent Palestinian prisoners, politician and paramilitary leader Marwan Barghouti and Ahmad Saadat, the head of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP).

The hostages are Hamas’ foremost trump card in negotiations, no pun intended.

Mr. Trump’s proposition increases their value by removing any incentive for Mr. Netanyahu to negotiate in good faith Israel’s withdrawal in the second phase ceasefire talks.

Standing beside Mr. Trump, Mr. Netanyahu repeatedly insisted that the Gaza war would not end until he had achieved his goals of destroying Hamas, freeing the hostages, and ensuring that Gaza does not reemerge as a launching pad for attacks on Israel.

Mr. Trump’s proposition upends earlier US discussions with the United Arab Emirates, Israel, and the West Bank-based, internationally recognised Palestine Authority that were reflected in the ceasefire’s first phase terms.

The talks focussed on an international interim administration of Gaza once Israeli troops withdraw that would eventually hand power to the Authority.

In anticipation of the creation of an international administration at the Authority’s invitation, Israel allowed Authority officials to assist in running the Gazan side of the Rafah border with Egypt alongside a European force and Egyptian security, despite Mr. Netanyahu’s insistence that there was no place for the Authority in post-war Gaza.

Based on Mr. Trump's plan, Mr. Netanyahu could risk the first phase of the ceasefire, which ends in early March, by demanding the withdrawal of the Authority personnel.

Elie Dekel, a former Israeli military intelligence official, insisted this week that Israel needed to retain control of a three-kilometre-deep buffer zone along the Rafah border to ensure Egypt does not help Hamas rearm.

Egypt has “a great interest” in preserving Hamas’ capabilities, Mr. Dekel said.

There is no independent or Egyptian indication to support Mr. Dekel’s assertion.

On the contrary, Egypt has long viewed Hamas as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has cracked down on the Brotherhood since overthrowing Mohammed Morsi, a Muslim Brother and Egypt’s first and only democratically elected leader, in a 2013 military coup.

However, in theory, Mr. Trump’s Gaza plan could persuade Egypt to see Hamas as a way of disrupting an attempt to move Palestinians from Gaza into the Sinai desert.

Hamas demonstrated its abilities in recent weeks as an organized armed force that has retained command and control and is capable of enforcing discipline, securing public spaces, and choreographing prisoner exchanges despite having been relentlessly battered by the Israeli military for 15 months.

Hamas officials vowed to thwart Mr. Trump’s plans.

"We consider it a recipe for creating chaos and tension in the region. Our people in the Gaza Strip will not allow these plans to pass. What is required is an end to the occupation and aggression against our people, not their expulsion from their land," said Sami Abu Zuhri, a Hamas spokesman.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.