US President Biden plays high-risk poker with Israel’s Netanyahu
By James M. Dorsey
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US President Joe Biden doesn’t fit the mould of a high-risk
gambler.
Yet, gambling is the crux of his velvet glove dealings with
Israel. With one eye on Israeli politics and the other on presidential
elections in the United States in six months, Mr. Biden is walking a tightrope.
The stakes and the costs couldn’t be higher.
At its core, despite the administration’s escalating verbal
criticism of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and the suspension of an arms
shipment to Israel, Mr. Biden is sticking to his bearhug approach towards
Israel with a twist rather than taking coercive steps that could force Mr.
Netanyahu’s hand.
Credit: CNN
The administration’s refusal to endorse a full-scale Israeli
ground offensive in the southern Gazan enclave of Rafah, criticism of Mr.
Netanyahu’s war tactics that have failed to destroy Hamas and the prime
minister’s insistence on not planning for a post-war administration of the
Strip, and close coordination with Mr. Netanyahu’s rivals in his war cabinet
and the opposition, aims to tighten the noose around the Israeli leader’s neck.
The strategy, initiated in early April with opposition leader Yair Lapid's visit to Washington, may
have begun to produce results.
In the most frontal assault to date on Mr. Netanyahu’s
policies from within the prime minister’s Cabinet, Israeli Defence Minister
Yoav Gallant this week publicly
challenged the prime minister to come forward with a plan for Gaza’s
post-war administration and to disavow Israeli military rule of the war-ravaged
Strip.
Echoing
unidentified military officials quoted in Israeli media, Mr. Gallant warned
that in the absence of Israeli planning for the day the guns fall silent in
Gaza, “only two negative options remain: Hamas' rule in Gaza or Israeli
military rule.”
Israeli
Defence Minister Yoav Gallant challenges Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Source: YouTube
Military officials have insisted that their failure to
destroy Hamas and the group’s ability to resurface in parts of Gaza evacuated
by Israeli troops was due to Mr. Netanyahu’s refusal to devise a strategy for
the day the war ends.
Backed by the Biden administration and supported by his
fellow war cabinet member, Benny Gantz, Mr. Gallant said he opposed Israeli
rule. Mr. Gallant demanded that Mr. Netanyahu publicly forswear the Israeli
administration of the Strip.
“I call on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a
decision and declare that Israel will not establish civilian control over the
Gaza Strip, that Israel will not establish military governance in the Gaza Strip,
and that a governing alternative to Hamas in the Gaza Strip will be raised
immediately," Mr. Gallant said.
A senior US official was quick to say that the Biden
administration “share(s) the Minister of Defense Gallant's concern that
Israel has not developed any plans for holding and governing territory the IDF
(Israel Defence Forces) clears, thereby allowing Hamas to regenerate in those
areas. This is a concern because our objective is to see Hamas defeated."
US Air Force
personnel unload a KC-135 Stratotanker at an undisclosed location in the Middle
East. Credit: US Air Force
Israeli military officials have downplayed the impact of Mr.
Biden’s suspension
of a shipment to Israel of high payload 2,000 and 500-pound bombs and threat
to halt the supply of other offensive weapons.
The Israel Defence Forces “has weapons for the missions it
is planning. And also for the missions in Rafah, we
have the weapons we require,” said military spokesman Daniel Hagari.
Even so, Mr. Biden’s submission to Congress of a
US$1 billion weapons package for Israel aimed to alleviate concerns in the
Israeli military and encourage senior commanders to stand up to Mr. Netanyahu
and appease the president’s pro-Israeli critics that include donors and members
of his Democratic Party as well as potentially undecided pro-Israel voters.
The bulk of the weapons, including tank ammunition, tactical
vehicles, and mortar rounds, have yet to be produced and will not be delivered
for months at the earliest.
At the core of the dispute over post-war planning is a
cornerstone of any future resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict:
Palestinian self-rule and independence, a notion that Mr. Netanyahu rejects.
In separate statements in recent days, Mr. Netanyahu
insisted that the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel “would be a reward
for terrorists” and that he would “not
replace Hamastan with Fatahstan," a reference to Al Fatah, the
backbone of President Mahmoud Abbas’ internationally recognised, West
Bank-based Palestine Authority.
Mr. Netanyahu has insisted that Israel maintain security
control of Gaza and the West Bank indefinitely and argued that there's no point
in drafting a post-war plan before Hamas is completely defeated.
"Indecision is, in essence, a decision. This leads to a
dangerous course, which promotes the idea of Israeli military and civilian
governance in Gaza,” Mr. Gallant said.
Israeli
National Security Minister demands war. Source: YouTube
An aide to Mr. Gallant warned that “this current trajectory
serves the interest of the most radical elements in the Israeli government
— (National Security Minister) Itamar Ben Gvir and (Finance Minister) Betzalel
Smotrich — who fantasise about full Israeli control over Gaza and rebuilding of
settlements."
To make the point, Mr. Ben Gvir
this week told thousands of Israeli settlers, ”We in the Cabinet demand war
now. Demand to enter Rafah. Demand targeted assassinations... Without
liberating Gaza there will be no solution. The solution is to return home…to
the Land of Israel…to liberate, to colonise and also to bequeath. (Gaza) has
always been ours and will stay ours.”
Contrary to Messrs. Netanyahu and Ben Gvir, Messrs. Galant
and Gantz, as well as the Biden administration and the overwhelming majority of
the international community, favour the Palestine Authority taking control of
Gaza.
Despite the Authority’s loss of credibility under Mr. Abbas
in the eyes of Palestinians, control of Gaza would recreate the Strip and the West
Bank as one entity under Palestinian administration that could evolve into an
independent Palestinian state.
It would also potentially help pave the way for Arab
participation in a possible international peacekeeping force in Gaza and
negotiations to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The Biden administration hopes that it would open the door
to a Middle East mega-deal involving Saudi recognition of Israel and tighter
US-Saudi military and nuclear cooperation.
Credit:
UNICEF
In gambling on his ability to tighten the noose around Mr.
Netanyahu’s neck, Mr. Biden is not only risking his chances of winning a second
term in office.
Even though Israel has reduced its Gaza kill rate eight
months into the Gaza war, tens of Palestinians daily still pay the ultimate
price for Israel’s refusal to end the war and Mr. Biden’s failure to put his
foot down firmly.
In addition, even if Mr. Biden succeeds in cornering Mr.
Netanyahu, the prime minister's potential successors, whether that is Mr.
Gallant, Mr. Gantz, or Mr. Lapid, envision a future emasculated Palestinian
entity.
That is a far cry from Palestinian aspirations for a state
that is fully independent and exercises full sovereignty over its territory.
To be sure, undermining Mr. Netanyahu is a worthwhile
endeavour. Even so, Mr. Biden could discover that his gamble may produce results
that were not worth the risks.
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.
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