The Khashoggi crisis: Saudi Arabia braces for tougher post-election US attitude
By James M. Dorsey
Saudi Arabia is bracing itself for a potentially more
strained relationship with the United States in the wake of Democrats gaining
control of the House of Representatives in this week’s mid-term elections and mounting Turkish efforts
to corner the kingdom in the Khashoggi crisis.
To counter possible US pressure, the kingdom is exploring
opportunities to diversify its arms suppliers and build a domestic defense
industry. It is also rallying the wagons at home with financial handouts and new
development projects in a bid to bolster domestic support for crown
prince Mohammed bin Salman.
The Democrats’ election victory has strengthened Saudi
concerns that the Trump administration may pressure the kingdom to back down on
key issues like the Yemen war that has sparked the world’s worst humanitarian
crisis since World War Two and the 17-month old Saudi-United Arab Emirates-led
economic and diplomatic boycott of Qatar.
US officials have argued that Saudi policies complicate
their efforts to isolate and economically cripple Iran.
The officials assert that the boycott of Qatar and the
fallout of the October 2 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi
consulate in Istanbul constitute obstacles to the creation of a Sunni Muslim
alliance against the Islamic republic, dubbed an Arab NATO, as well as the
achievement of other US goals in the Middle East, including countering
political violence and ensuring the free flow of oil.
Going a step further, senior Israelis say they have given up
on the notion of a Sunni Muslim alliance whose interests would be aligned with
those of the Jewish state and see their budding relations with Gulf states
increasingly in transactional terms.
The Trump administration signalled its concerns even before
the killing of Mr. Khashoggi.
“Our regional partners are increasingly competing and, in
the case of the Qatar rift, entering into outright competition to the
detriment of American interests and to the benefit of Iran, Russia and China,”
National Security Adviser John Bolton wrote to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in a letter late summer, according to Reuters.
With the House expected to be tougher on arms sales to the kingdom
and possibly go as far as imposing an arms embargo because of the humanitarian
crisis in Yemen caused by Saudi and UAE military operations, Saudi Arabia has
wasted no time in casting around for alternative weapons suppliers.
In apparent recognition that the Saudi military, reliant on
US and European arms acquisitions, would find it difficult to quickly shift to
Russian or Chinese systems, Saudi Arabia appears for now to be focussing on
alternative Western suppliers.
That could prove to be risky with anti-Saudi sentiment
because of the Yemen war also running high in European parliaments and
countries like Spain and Germany either teetering on the brink of sanctions or
having toyed with restrictions on weapons sales to the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia, nonetheless, has in recent days contracted Spanish
shipbuilder Navantia to jointly
build five corvettes for the Saudi navy and offered South African
state-owned defense group Denel $1 billion to help
the kingdom build a domestic defense industry.
The partnership with Denel would involve Saudi Arabia taking
a minority stake in German defense contractor Rheinmetall, which designs armoured
fighting vehicles and howitzers.
With sale of the US-made precision-guided munitions bogged
down in Congress, Spain
has stepped in to address Saudi Arabia’s immediate need. The
question is however whether Spain can fully meet Saudi demand.
A US refusal already before the Gulf crisis and the
Khashoggi incident to share with Saudi Arabia its most advanced drone
technology, paved the way for Chinese agreement to open its first
overseas defense production facility in the kingdom.
State-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology
Corporation (CASC) will manufacture its CH-4 Caihong, or Rainbow drone, as well
as associated equipment in Saudi Arabia. The CH-4 is comparable to the US armed
MQ-9 Reaper drone.
Saudi Arabia also fears that Democratic control of the House
could strengthen opposition
to a nuclear energy agreement with the kingdom. Five Republican
senators called on President Donald J. Trump days before the mid-term election
to suspend talks with Saudi Arabia.
Development of a defense industry would over time serve
Prince Mohammed’s efforts to diversify the Saudi economy and create jobs.
So would King Salman’s
inauguration this week of 259 development
projects worth US$6.13 billion ranging from tourism, electricity,
environment, water, agriculture, housing, and transport to energy. King Salman launched the projects during a curtailed
visit to Saudi provinces designed to bolster support for his regime as well as
his son, Prince Mohammed
On the other hand, the government’s most recent decision to restore
annual bonuses and allowances for civil servants and military personnel without
linking them to performance constitutes an attempt to curry public
favour that runs contrary to Prince Mohammed’s intention to streamline the
bureaucracy and stimulate competition.
Bonuses were cut in 2016 as part of austerity measures. They
were restored last year and linked in May to job performance.
In a further populist move, King Salman also pardoned prisoners
serving time on financial charges and promised to pay the debts up to
US$267,000 of each one of them.
King Salman’s moves appear designed to lessen Saudi
dependence on US arms sales and project a united front against any attempt to
implicate Prince Mohammed in the death of Mr. Khashoggi.
The moves come as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
insists that the order to kill the journalist came “from
the highest levels of the Saudi government” and the Trump
administration demands Saudi action against the perpetrators and those
responsible for the murder.
Failure to be seen to be taking credible action may not
undermine King Salman’s rallying of the wagons at home but will do little to
weaken calls in Washington as well as European capitals for tougher action in a
bid to force Saudi Arabia to come clean on the Khashoggi case and adopt a more
conciliatory approach towards ending the Yemen war and resolving the Gulf
crisis.
Dr.
James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International
Studies, co-director of the University of Würzburg’s Institute for Fan Culture,
and co-host of the New Books in Middle Eastern Studies podcast.
James is the author of The Turbulent World
of Middle East Soccer blog, a book with the same title and a co-authored
volume, Comparative Political Transitions between Southeast Asia and
the Middle East and North Africa as well as Shifting
Sands, Essays on Sports and Politics in the Middle East and North Africa
and just published China
and the Middle East: Venturing into the Maelstrom
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