In the more assertive Saudi Arabia
that’s emerging after the
Arab Spring, war is no longer taboo
as an instrument of policy
and Washington’s approval isn’t
required.
Once known for cautious diplomacy,
the oil-rich kingdom is
turning more frequently to hard
power. The shift has been
under way since unrest swept across
the Arab world in 2011.
It accelerated after the succession
of King Salman in January,
Saudis have started an air war in
Yemen against Shiite
Muslim rebels they accuse of being
tools of Iran.
“We are witnessing the first real attempt
to see whether Saudi
Arabia can become the new military
and political superpower
of the Arab world,” said David
Ottaway, a senior scholar at the
Wilson Center in Washington. “A
younger generation of
impatient Saudi hawks is coming to
power that is fed up with
the failure of the kingdom to project
its military and political
influence.”
The changes may not be entirely
welcome to the U.S., the
kingdom’s historic defender, just as
recent American policies
-- especially the pursuit of a
nuclear deal with Iran, Saudi
Arabia’s chief regional rival --
haven’t gone down well in the
Gulf. This week’s summit of Arab
leaders with President
Barack Obama at Camp David can’t
disguise the fact that the
longtime allies are drifting apart.
King Salman won’t attend,
and his nephew and son -- the prime
movers of the new policy
-- will head the Saudi delegation.
Bahrain Uprising
The Saudi readiness to use force
predates the change of kings.
It was on display in Bahrain in the
early months of the 2011
Arab revolts. As protests spread
among Bahrain’s Shiite
majority, Saudi Arabia sent troops in
to crush the uprising,
at the head of a coalition of Sunni Gulf
monarchies. As in
Yemen today, the Saudis alleged an
Iranian role in the unrest.
“Military intervention in Bahrain
marked the beginning of the
country’s muscular foreign policy,
one that is independent of
the U.S. security umbrella,” said
Fawaz Gerges, professor of
Mideast politics at the London School
of Economics.
The Saudis have also played a role in
Syria’s civil war, backing
opposition groups and criticizing the
U.S. for being too soft on
President Bashar al-Assad.
Intellectual Roots
Pressure for a change of approach has
been percolating through
the opaque Saudi political system for
some time. There’s a school
of policy thinkers voicing support
for the kingdom’s assertiveness.
Two of its leaders are Mohammed bin
Nawaf, the Saudi
ambassador to the U.K., and Nawaf
Obaid, a visiting fellow at
Harvard University.
The ambassador wrote in a December
2013 editorial in the New
York Times that Saudi Arabia will act
to fulfill its perceived
responsibilities in the region “with
or without support of our
Western partners.”
Obaid had a similar message when the
Saudi-led coalition
started bombing Yemen. The
intervention “should serve notice
to the world that a major
generational shift underway in the
kingdom is sure to have far-reaching
geopolitical ramifications,”
‘Asserting
Independence’
The stance of both men “is defiant of
American guidance,” said
Chas Freeman, a former U.S.
ambassador to Riyadh, in a phone
interview Monday. “It’s not just
indifferent. It actually takes some
pleasure in asserting independence.”
There’s still a bedrock of commercial
ties. Saudi Arabia ranked
as America’s 10th-largest trade
partner last year. The kingdom
sells oil, while weapons are among
its main purchases. Saudi
military outlays jumped 17 percent to
exceed $80 billion last
Scoring Points
In charge of the army is Salman’s son
Mohammed bin Salman,
promoted this year from a low-profile
job to become the
kingdom’s third most-powerful man.
He’s steering the Yemen
war and will attend the Camp David
summit along with
Muhammad bin Nayef, the king’s nephew
and crown prince.
For all their sophisticated military
hardware, it’s not clear how
much progress the Saudis are making
in Yemen, where their
declared goal is restoring the
government ousted by the Shiite
Houthi rebels. After more than six
weeks of airstrikes against
the Houthis, the rebels are still
making gains and striking
targets inside the kingdom.
“For the first time, the kingdom is
using its high-tech military
capabilities to score points,”
Freeman said. Whether they’re
being “used in an effective way to
advance policy and achieve
political objectives is another
question.”
fighting has persisted. Saudi Arabia
bombed the rebels as they
attempted to advance in Aden, Fatthi
Mohammed, a resident,
said by telephone.
‘Another Hezbollah’
Inside the kingdom, there’s
widespread support for the war.
Analysts argue that the kingdom had
to act to stop the Houthis
from seizing all of Yemen. The
official line that the Houthis are
clients of Iran and the Shiite
Lebanese militia Hezbollah –
accepted by most Saudis.
“The threat is on our border,” said
Khalid al-Dakhil, a Saudi
political sociologist. “Saudi Arabia
can’t allow another
Hezbollah on its border.”
Beyond Yemen, the Saudis are
concerned about a wider
change to the balance of power in the
Middle East
The kingdom has the financial clout
that comes from being
the world’s biggest oil exporter, and
a special status among
Islamic countries as the home of the
religion’s holy cities.
Without matching military prowess,
though, it risks being
“outclassed” by other regional
powers, said James Dorsey,
a senior fellow in international
studies at Nanyang
Technological University in
Singapore. He cited Turkey,
Iran, Egypt and Israel.
‘Raw Intimidation’
“The Saudis are exploiting a window
of opportunity” to close
the gap, Dorsey said. It’s a
high-risk policy and, in countries
like Yemen, “short-sighted because it
doesn’t solve problems
and may well be aggravating them,” he
said.
That may be the Saudi purpose,
according to Freeman, the
former U.S. ambassador.
After the invasion of 2003, the U.S.
left “a pile of rubble in
Iraq and had no plan to organize it
in any way,” Freeman said.
“Israel has done the same with Gaza.
The main point there
seems to be just raw intimidation,
which may be the point
with the Saudis in Yemen.”
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