Palestinian Statehood in More Than Name?

 

Guest: Dr James M. Dorsey, Adjunct Senior Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies

To listen to the podcast, go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/palestinian-statehood-in-more-than

Recognition of a Palestinian state at the UN is gaining momentum, with Australia, the UK and France joining over 145 countries in support. Yet, major players like the US and Japan remain hesitant. What impact does this have on a long lasting solution to the war in Gaza? BFM 89.9 discusses this with Dr. James M. Dorsey, Adjunct Senior Fellow at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

Presenter: Elaine Boey, Shazana Mokhtar, Wong Shou Ning

Producer: Tun Hizami Hashim

TRANSCRIPT

[Anchor] Let's turn our attention to what is going on over in the Middle East and also at the UN. So, Western nations including Australia, the UK, Canada and France have now recognised a Palestinian state and this was done recently at the United Nations as tensions in Gaza and the West Bank continue to escalate.

This brings the total to over 145 UN member states that already recognise Palestine, showing growing international support for a two-state solution. However, countries like Singapore, Japan, Germany, Italy, South Korea and the US have not extended recognition and full UN membership for Palestine also remains blocked by Security Council vetoes.

So, given this development, what implications could it have for the future of Israel-Palestine negotiations for peace and how might Israel and its allies respond to this new wave of support for Palestinian statehood and what does it really all mean? For some analysis on this, we speak with Dr. James Dorsey, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

James, good morning. So, we've seen a slew of countries, particularly from the West, officially recognise a Palestinian state. How significant is this move? Is it really more symbolic than substantive at this point?

[James M. Dorsey] Good morning, pleasure to be with you. I think measured in terms of what this means for an end to the Gaza war, the impact is zero beyond giving Palestinians a badly needed moment of good news and a sense of hope that presumably is going to be fleeting. On a state level, it does have some meaning in the sense that it upgrades Palestine as being a sovereign state rather than an entity.

It lets it enter into agreements, for example, in theory trade agreements with other states, even though that is restricted by the fact that Israel controls Palestine's borders and in fact much of its land. Thirdly, and that may be the most important, it underlines the growing isolation of Israel and by extension the United States. It puts more pressure, particularly on the Europeans, the only other party that in theory at least has some leverage with Israel.

It puts greater pressure on them to force Israel or pressure Israel to bring an end to the Gaza war.

[Anchor] So there are about 45 countries, including Japan and Singapore, that do not recognise Palestine. What are their main concerns driving behind this reluctance?

[James M. Dorsey] I think the concerns differ from country to country. Part of them are historical or historically rooted, like in the case of Germany. Part of them are the belief that making recognition at the end of a peace process encourages the Palestinians to engage more seriously and some of them fear that or do not want to get on the wrong side of the United States, fearing that the United States may take action against states that do recognise Palestine.

[Anchor] James, how do you anticipate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government to respond to this increased recognition of Palestinians as a state?

[James M. Dorsey] I think we're going to have to wait and see. Much of it is going to rest on what happens when the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets President Trump presumably next week, Monday. Netanyahu and Israeli officials have hinted that there are various options.

One option would be to target states that have recently recognised Palestine individually. For example, in terms of closing down their consulates in Jerusalem or forcing them to reduce the level of diplomatic representation in Israel. That's one set of options.

The second set of options would be far more consequential and that would be that Israel assigns a price tag to recognition of Palestine in terms of it responding by annexing parts of the West Bank. That's a move that presumably could force those countries, first and foremost the West European countries, Britain, France, Portugal, to take real action against Israel in terms of sanctions, arms embargoes in response to the annexation. So I think we're going to have to wait and see what Trump says to Netanyahu in terms of what he will green light and what he will not.

[Anchor] Now James, earlier you brought up that this just makes Israel more isolated as a state. Do you think Benjamin Netanyahu really doesn't care? At the end of the day the only country that he needs to get along with is the US.

[James M. Dorsey] The US is obviously the major player in terms of diplomatic cover for Israel, in terms of financial support, in terms of military support. But Europe is being underestimated. I think you have to keep in mind that Europe, not the United States, is Israel's largest trading partner by far.

At the same time Europe is a larger investor in Israel than the United States is and Israel invests more in Europe than it does in the United States. Roughly 30% of Israeli arms acquisitions are in Europe. Germany is the second largest arms supplier to Israel.

So that gives Europe some significant leverage and I think one shouldn't underestimate that.

[Anchor] But in the meantime, James, given Israel's ongoing settlement expansion in the West Bank and the situation in Gaza, will there be a state for Palestinians to actually run in the end?

[James M. Dorsey] I think we're at a crucial cross point. Contrary to much of common wisdom that it was already too late for a two-state solution, I think that option was still possible until now. Particularly given the fact that if you look at not the dots on the map of the West Bank signifying Israeli settlements, but if you look at concentration of settler population, the settlers are for about 80% concentrated close to the green line of the pre-1967 war boundaries between Israel and the West Bank.

And therefore, they could be brought under Israeli sovereignty were a Palestinian state to be established very easily by enacting land swaps. Now you're seeing Israeli moves with the E1 project that was recently approved by the Israeli government that would create settlements that virtually cut the West Bank in half. And that makes a two-state solution far more difficult.

[Anchor] So, on that note, what can Palestine do now? What strategies can they pursue to strengthen its standing, its negotiation, its statehood?

[James M. Dorsey] Look, the Palestinians in a sense are caught between a rock and a hard place.

I think there are the two most important things that they can do is the Palestine Authority, which is the West Bank based internationally recognised representation of the Palestinians, has to get its act together. It's perceived as incompetent, as corrupt, as fledgling. It has to enact serious reforms that enhance its credibility, not only with the international community as the party that would govern Palestine once the Gaza war is over and we have an agreement on the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but it has to earn credibility among its own people.

It's got a very low ranking. But the other part of it is the Palestinians as such, with other words, the Palestine Authority, as well as the various Palestinian factions, including the militants like Hamas, have to realise that their divisions are part of what is weakening the Palestinian negotiating position.

[Anchor] James, thank you very much for speaking with us. That was Dr. James Dorsey, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, helping us understand the implications of growing recognition of Palestinian statehood and the many obstacles in the way to true sovereignty for now.