Faltering ceasefire negotiations and rising global backlash – JMD on Radio Islam

 

To listen or watch the broadcast, go to: https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/faltering-ceasefire-negotiations

Nearly two years into Israel’s devastating war in Gaza, ceasefire negotiations remain stalled, the humanitarian toll continues to mount, and international divisions are deepening. Despite mounting global pressure, Israel has resisted calls for a permanent ceasefire, insisting on unfeasible conditions.

During this week’s Middle East Report, James M. Dorsey analysed the faltering ceasefire efforts.

Dorsey outlined the core of the impasse: a mounting divergence between Israeli and much of the international community, and Hamas’s demands on the other. In August, Hamas accepted an Israeli-endorsed US proposal for a 60-day ceasefire. Yet, Israel and US envoy Steve Witkoff shifted the narrative, insisting any truce be permanent and linked to full hostage release—effectively changing the negotiated goalposts.

Dorsey warned that this tactical shift by Israel and the United States amounts to deliberate undermining of ceasefire momentum.

“So, in effect, what Israel is doing is sabotaging a ceasefire,” Dorsey said.

The Trump administration has enacted sweeping punitive measures against Palestinians: preventing Palestinian officials—including President Mahmoud Abbas—from attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York; barring  Palestinian passport holders from US entry; and sanctioning Palestinian human rights groups supporting South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Dorsey observed that diplomatic and economic pressure on Israel remains insufficient—yet potentially poised to escalate.

“Private sector and limited government sanctions are troubling Israelis, but not enough to push Prime Minister Netanyahu to reconsider his policies,” Dorsey said.

At the same time, civil society in Europe and elsewhere are campaigning for sanctions against Israel.

“If and when sanctions start to kick in by the Europeans, serious sanctions that start to hit where it hurts, that’s something that Israel is going to have to take account of,” Dorsey said.

Dorsey also spotlighted the latest flotilla of 50 ships from 44 countries—including activists from Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar—that has set sail to break the siege of Gaza. He flagged the unprecedented involvement of Gulf nationals as “remarkable,” given the suppression of pro-Palestinian expression of support in much of the Middle East.

Finally, Dorsey touched on Lebanon’s entanglement: the Lebanese government, under US pressure, has committed to disarming Hezbollah, though the group has refused to comply.

On paper, this move is framed as a step toward consolidating state sovereignty by ensuring the monopoly of arms rests with the state. But in practice, it places Beirut in an impossible bind. Hezbollah, still reeling but not broken from its latest confrontation with Israel, has declared it will not give up its weapons as long as Israeli forces occupy Lebanese land. This creates a standoff between Hezbollah, which commands loyalty across significant sections of Lebanese society, and the fragile Lebanese state.

For ordinary Lebanese, this uncertainty compounds daily struggles. The country is still reeling from years of financial crisis, the 2020 Beirut port explosion, and one of the world’s worst currency devaluations. Analysts warn that pressure to confront Hezbollah militarily could trigger fresh conflict in a society exhausted by instability. At the same time, Washington insists that Lebanon must show it can rein in armed groups operating independently of the state.

As Dorsey put it, this leaves Lebanon “between a rock and a hard place,” trying to navigate American demands without igniting a civil confrontation that could spiral into another round of violence.