Pushing Saudi Arabia to be an Israeli copycat

 

By James M. Dorsey

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With Saudi recognition of Israel off the table, pro-Israeli and Israeli pundits and far-right and conservative pro-Israel groups in the United States are pushing the kingdom to become an aggressive regional player in Israel's mould.

The pundits and groups want Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to abandon his de-escalation policy, including the kingdom's fragile freezing of its differences with Iran, and to reignite his ill-fated 2015 military campaign against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen that sparked one of the world's worst humanitarian crises.

Proponents of a Saudi Arabia, that like Israel would impose its will with military force, believe that a more assertive kingdom would allow Israel to outsource its fight with the Houthis, revive the notion of an Israeli-Gulf anti-Iran and anti-Turkey alliance, help Saudi Arabia resolve differences with the United Arab Emirates, Israel's best Arab friend, and potentially give the possibility of Saudi recognition of Israel and a key role in post-war Gaza a new lease on life.

To garner support among US administration hawks and President Donald J. Trump's isolationist Make America Great Again (MAGA) support base, the pundits and conservative think tanks argue that Saudi Arabia's de-escalation policy and informal ceasefire with the Houthis have enabled rebel missile attacks against Israel and US naval vessels and commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

Saudi Arabia and Iran restored diplomatic relations, broken off in 2016 after the ransacking of the kingdom’s embassy in Tehran, in a deal brokered by China in 2023.

The restoration was part of a regional de-escalation effort that included the 2020 recognition of Israel by the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, and the dialling down of tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE on the one hand, and Qatar, Turkey, Syria, and Iran on the other.

Israel and the United States long envisioned Saudi recognition of Israel as part of a three-way deal, involving US guarantees for the kingdom’s security and support for its peaceful nuclear programme.

Israel’s conduct of the war in Gaza, attempts to weaken the government of Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the 12-day June war with Iran have turned the notion of Saudi recognition of Israel into a pipedream for the foreseeable future.

Once amenable to fomalising its relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia has hardened its position because of the Gaza war, insisting that recognition would be conditioned on Israel irreversibly committing to a pathway for the creation of an independent Palestinian state, alongside the Jewish state.

Israel’s refusal to end the war is rooted in its rejection of Palestinian national rights and determination to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state.

Israel has rejected efforts by Saudi Arabia, together with Qatar and Egypt, to entice Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu by joining Europe in calling for the disarming of Hamas and exclusion of the group from a role in the post-war administration of Gaza.

Moreover, an undeclared sea change in Israeli defence strategy, prompted by Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, while demonstrating the country’s military and intelligence prowess, despite its failure to achieve its goals in Gaza, has also projected Israel as a loose cannon and a potential threat to regional stability.

The change means that Israel seeks to emasculate its foes militarily, rather than rely on its military superiority and a sledgehammer approach as deterrents.

Israel’s strategy was apparent in its war with Iran, its denigration of the military capabilities of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite Muslim militia and political movement, and destruction of Syrian military infrastructure and weaponry.

Even so, Israel has yet to realise that its wars may have put on display its military superiority but have changed the geopolitical balance of power in the Gulf states’ favour.

Mr. Netanyahu and his far-right, ultranationalist coalition partners have suggested that Israel was doing Arab states, incapable of defending themselves, a favour by establishing diplomatic relations with them.

Even before Gulf states changed their perceptions of Israel, Saudi Arabia and others viewed relations with the Jewish state as a helpful option rather than a sine qua non, contingent on Israel equitably resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Saudi Arabia and other Arab states have not given up on attempts to entice Israel to withdraw from lands it occupied during the 1967 Middle East war and agree to the creation of a Palestinian state, even though their attempts to do so with the 2002 Arab peace plan that offered Israel peace for land and the Emirati, Bahraini, and Moroccan recognition of Israel.

Instead, no longer trusting Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states have raised the bar. They do not take Israel at its word and want to see ironclad Israeli promises before they contemplate recognition of the Jewish state.

Meanwhile, the Houthis have largely abided by a truce with the United States announced by Mr. Trump earlier this year that exempted rebel attacks on Israel, and according to the rebels, Israel-related vessels traversing the Red Sea.

The Houthis agreed to the deal at the end of seven weeks of US air strikes against rebel targets.

The pundits and pro-Israel groups pushing Saudi Arabia to be more assertive believe that if backed by the Make America Great Again crowd, they stand a chance of changing the kingdom’s attitudes.

Michael Rubin, a Middle East scholar at the conservative Washington-based American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and editor of the Middle East Quarterly, published by the far-right Philadelphia-headquartered Middle East Forum, recently sought to equate Saudi attitudes towards the Houthis with the kingdom’s approach to Al Qaeda and the perpetrators of the 9/11 attacks in 2001.

“Saudi authorities…reprise the plausible deniability they embraced toward Al Qaeda in the pre-9/11 era. Then, the Saudi government denied involvement but ignored Saudi elites’ private donations to the group. Now, while the Saudi government denies funding terrorists, Saudi princes and businessmen pour millions of dollars into Islah, Yemen’s Muslim Brotherhood group, whose leaders collude with both the Houthis and Al Qaeda,’ Mr. Rubin wrote in an article published by the Institute and the Forum.

“Prior to September 11, 2001, Saudi Arabia flirted with being a state sponsor of terrorism. Almost a quarter century later, it repeats itself as America sleeps,” Mr. Rubin added.

In an article published by The Media Line, a US Middle East-focussed online news website funded by the evangelical Nathaniel Foundation, and The Jerusalem Post, journalist Mark Lavie called for a renewed Saudi offensive against the Houthis, despite its disastrous first-round failure.

Mr. Lavie argued that US air strikes against Houthi targets earlier this year, before Mr. Trump announced a truce with the group, and Israeli retaliation for Houthi missile attacks “are just a first stage. Ground troops are needed. A large, well-equipped military, ready to move, could take care of that problem once and for all.” That military is Saudi, Mr. Lavie added.

Advocating renewed US strikes against Houthis, pro-Israel Foundation for Defence of Democracies CEO Mark Dubowitz and researcher Koby Gottlieb warned in The National Interest, a conservative publication owned by the Center for the National Interest that “de-escalation at all costs…sends the message that violence brings rewards—and that violating a ceasefire with the world’s most powerful military has no real consequences.”

The silver lining in all of this is that even proponents of greater Saudi assertiveness concede that a Saudi-led, Israel-backed regional alliance will remain wishful thinking as long as the Gaza war continues and Israel rejects a resolution of its conflict with the Palestinians.

Even so, Mr. Lavie argues that “elimination of the Houthi threat and reunification of Yemen under Saudi protection” would be a “first step.”

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.