Gaza mediators work at cross purposes

 

By James M. Dorsey

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Pursuing diametrically opposed objectives, Gaza's ceasefire mediators are working at cross purposes.

The divide among the mediators, the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, significantly diminishes the chances of the ceasefire talks succeeding and, if they do, reaching a deal that would lead to an end of the war.

Hamas's renewed acceptance by Hamas of a months-old Israeli-endorsed US proposal for a 60-day-ceasefire was as much a product of the mediators working at cross purposes as it was a Qatar-Egyptian attempt to get the talks back on track.

It was also an effort to re-engage US President Donald Trump, who, faced with mounting criticism of Israel’s Gaza starvation policy from segments of his support base, has gone silent on the ceasefire talks.

Finally, Qatar and Egypt hope the revived talks will keep open the door to a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Qatar, Egypt, and other Arab states that pressured Hamas to make a conciliatory move see the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel as the only way of resolving the conflict.

In a break with long-standing US policy, the Trump administration has progressively walked away from supporting a two-state solution and aligned itself with the Israeli government’s hardline ultra-nationalism.

Hamas announced its renewed acceptance as the United States and Israel changed the goal posts of the ceasefire talks by rejecting a temporary halt of hostilities and insisting that Hamas’s remaining 50 hostages, abducted during the group’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, be released in one batch rather than in stages.

In addition, Mr. Trump has on at least two occasions in recent weeks greenlighted expanded Israeli military operations to take ground control of Gaza and forcibly free the hostages.

“The situation has to end, it’s extortion and it has to end,” Mr. Trump said, adding that it would be “safer, in many ways,” to free the hostages militarily, instead of negotiating a deal with Hamas that would allow the group to survive.

Earlier this month, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu demanded a one-time release of all hostages rather than in stages, as he had wanted in the past, because it would prolong the war.

Furthermore, Mr. Netanyahu insisted that the war end on his terms, which include the disarmament of Hamas and the exiling of its leaders, a continued Israeli presence in Gaza and control of the Strip’s airspace and territorial waters, and the installation of a Palestinian and/or Arab administration subservient to Israel.

“The situation has to end, it’s extortion and it has to end,” Mr. Trump said, adding that it would be “safer, in many ways,” to free the hostages militarily, instead of negotiating a deal with Hamas that would allow the group to survive.

Earlier this month, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu demanded a one-time release of all hostages rather than in stages, as he had wanted in the past, because it would prolong the war.

Furthermore, Mr. Netanyahu insisted that the war end on his terms, which include the disarmament of Hamas and the exiling of its leaders, a continued Israeli presence in Gaza and control of the Strip’s airspace and territorial waters, and the installation of a Palestinian and/or Arab administration subservient to Israel.

In effect, Mr. Netanyahu was demanding Hamas’s surrender, which he sees, coupled with his rejection of a role for the group or the West Bank-based, internationally recognised Palestine Authority in post-war Gaza, as the way to squash Palestinian national aspirations.

Hama’s acceptance, which included several concessions, forced Mr. Netanyahu to agree to a revival of the ceasefire negotiations, while insisting that his military would proceed with plans to occupy Gaza City.

This way, Mr. Netanyahu hopes to avoid being blamed if the talks fail, which is likely assuming he sticks to his demands.

To force Mr. Netanyahu’s return to the negotiating table, Hamas dropped its demand that Israel withdraws from the Philadelphi Corridor, which runs parallel to Gaza’s border with Egypt, agreed to the continued presence in Gaza of the controversial US and Israel-backed Gulf Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), acquiesced in a larger buffer zone in the Strip, and indicated flexibility on the terms of an exchange of the hostages for Palestinians incarcerated by Israel.

To be sure, it’s hard to argue against the release of all Hamas’s hostages in one go.

Even so, many see Mr. Netanyahu’s changing of the goal posts for what it is: a manoeuvre to prolong the war and further reduce the chances for a two-state solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Prominent journalist Ronen Bergman noted that Israel’s return to negotiations was anchored in a Cabinet decision that hostilities would only end when Israel has security control of the Strip, an international entity that excludes Hamas and the Palestine Authority takes over the administration of Gaza, and Israel has destroyed Hamas.

“The (Israel Defence Forces) IDF estimates it will take three to five years to do this. In other words: the cabinet's decision is the continuation of the war for many years,” Mr. Bergman said.

As a result, Mr. Netanyahu 's return to the negotiating table with famine spreading in Gaza and Israeli military operations killing scores of mostly innocent Palestinians daily will do little to improve the prime minister and Israel's badly damaged international standing or grant Israel a victory in its uphill battle to win the information war.

UK Foreign Secretary David Lamy addressing parliament on July 22: “I firmly believe the Israeli government’s actions are doing untold damage to Israel’s standing in the world.” Credit: The London Standard

Nor will the fact that credible Israeli sources frequently debunk Mr. Netanyahu and Israel's assertions and justifications.

In the last week, an investigation by The Guardian, +972, an Israeli-Palestinian publication, and the Hebrew-language outlet Local Call, disclosed that figures from a classified Israeli military intelligence database show that as of May, five out of six Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in Gaza were civilians.

The figures put the number of Palestinian fighters killed up until May at almost half of the Israeli assertions.

The database accepted as accurate the casualty figures published by the Gaza health authorities, despite Israeli spokespeople insisting that Hamas inflates the figures.

A leaked audio clip added fuel to the fire.

Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, the former head of Israeli military intelligence, asserted in the clip, believed to have been recorded in March, that Hamas’s killing of 1,200 people, mostly civilians,  in its October 7 attack, justified the killing of tens of thousands of Palestinians, including children, as “necessary and required for future generations.”

In line with genocidal teachings of ultra-conservative far-right rabbis in government-subsidised pre-military academies, Mr. Haliva, referring to the Hamas attack, asserted that "for every one person on October 7, 50 Palestinians must die. It doesn’t matter now if they are children.”

Mr. Haliva was head of Israeli military intelligence when Hamas launched its attack. He resigned his position in April 2024 over his “leadership responsibility” for the Israeli military’s intelligence and operational failures on October 7. Mr. Haliva was the first senior military officer to do so.

If that were not enough to undermine Israeli government assertions, two American private security guards employed by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation accused the Israeli military and the guards of being responsible for the bulk of the deaths of more than 1,000 Palestinians desperate for food who were killed at the Foundation’s distribution sites.

Credit: CBS News

Israel and the Foundation have denied the allegations.

And on top of all this, a United Nations report presented by UN Undersecretary for Humanitarian Coordination Tom Fletcher declared a famine in Gaza this week. The UN's Integrated Food Security Phase Classification rarely declares an official famine.

The report warned that more than half a million people in Gaza, about a quarter of its population, face catastrophic levels of hunger, with many at risk of dying from malnutrition-related causes.

Mr.  Netanyahu may not care about the reputational impact of Israel’s war conduct, his systematic sabotaging of ceasefire negotiations, and the mounting pressure on some of the Jewish state’s closest allies to impose sanctions.

Ronit Harpaz, the founder of a European Union-funded medical device startup, warned that European sanctions would be the death knell for Israel’s high-tech industry and military-industrial complex.

The European Union has raised the spectre of suspending Israel’s association agreement and trade arrangements with the group.

“The termination of Israel's participation in the (European Union’s research) Horizon programme will be a strategic death sentence, not only for the high-tech industry, but also for the defence establishment,” Ms. Harpaz said.

Earlier this month, Germany suspended the export of arms to Israel that could be used in Gaza, while Turkey banned all maritime traffic with Israel. Italy halted arms exports to Israe in June.

“Germany's arms embargo could affect the replacement of Merkava tank engines. This means some tanks are out of commission, and the military's ability to operate in Gaza could take a hit,” said military affairs journalist Amos Harel.

Mr. Netanyahu is equally oblivious to hundreds of thousands of Israelis protesting in demand of an end to the war to secure the release of the hostages, and public opinion polls that indicate that a majority of Israelis agree with the protesters.

Recent opinion polls show that an election would deprive Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition of a majority in parliament, despite his Likud Party retaining its position as Israel’s largest political party.

Credit: Haaretz

Long dismissive of International public opinion or criticism from Israel's allies, Mr. Netanyahu recently indicated that he had lost hope of winning the information war on the back of an ill-conceived communications strategy and the overwhelming evidence that discredits Israeli assertions and arguments.

As a result, Mr. Netanyahu is shifting gears. Rather than attempt to refute allegations against Israel, Mr. Netanyahu wants to tackle the issue by influencing social media algorithms.

Mr. Netanyahu hopes to repeat his success in enlisting the United States in cracking down on freedom of expression and assembly as well as academic freedom in universities and public squares by persuading social media operators like Meta, the owner of Facebook and Instagram, and X, formerly Twitter, owned by Elon Musk, to manipulate their algorithms in Israel's favour.

Internal Meta data leaked in April showed that the company had cracked down on posts critical of Israel or supportive of Palestinians as part of a campaign orchestrated by Israel, the foremost originator of takedown requests globally.

Mr. Netanyahu's quest to influence or control algorithms would expand Israeli censorship efforts, enthusiastically implemented by the Trump administration.

 Even if he succeeds, Mr. Netanyahu and Israel are unlikely to turn the tide in their backfiring information war.

Just how much of an uphill battle Mr. Netanyahu is waging is evident in the emerging counterwinds from within his and his coalition partners' support base.

People like Daniel Pipes, the founder of the Philadelphia-based Middle East Forum, an influential advocate of hardline Israeli positions, and right-wing Israeli journalist Menachem Horowitz have called on Mr. Netanyahu and his ultra-nationalist coalition partners to end the war.

“Many on the right, and I am among them, wanted to see a clear decision in Gaza…. I believed…like many in Israel, that massive immigration of Palestinians to Arab countries could happen and that we could even return some settlements to the Strip… I also thought that a policy of withholding almost all aid would create enough pressure on Hamas. Reality has shown us otherwise, and after so much destruction and victimisation, we are very far from those plans… A large majority of the Israeli public understands this,” Mr. Horowitz said.

The government “can boast a very nice list of Israeli war achievements. Hamas hardly functions militarily, Hezbollah was defeated in Lebanon, we destroyed the entire Syrian army, and even attacked Iran. Only in Gaza are we still stuck with no way out,” Mr. Horowitz added.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.