Indonesia’s writing on the wall: Gaza drives hardening Muslim public opinion

 

By James M. Dorsey

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A recent opinion poll in Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim-majority state and democracy, throws a damper on Israeli and US hopes that Middle Eastern and Muslim states may recognise the Jewish state without a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

Even more concerning, the poll suggests that public opinion is turning against a compromise two-state solution that would see the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel as advocated by an overwhelming majority of the international community, including Arab and Muslim states.

The poll indicates that Israeli plans for a ground occupation of Gaza, Israel's US-backed devastation of Gaza to create an environment conducive to depopulation of the Strip, and its repressive West Bank settlement policy are driving the hardening of public attitudes.

Moshe Dayan eulogises a killed Israeli farmer in Gaza.  "Without the steel helmet and the cannon's fire we will not be able to build a home," he concluded. Credit: Israel Defence Forces archive

Depopulation and settlements increasingly complicate, if not make impossible, the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, and reaffirm former Israeli defence minister Moshe Dayan's prophecy in the 1950s that Israel must live by the sword.

Speaking at the 1956 funeral of an Israeli farmer brutally murdered by Palestinian militants, Mr. Dayan acknowledged the plight of the Palestinians. Still, he insisted, “This is our life’s choice—to be prepared and armed, strong, and determined, lest the sword be stricken from our fist and our lives cut down.”

Mr. Dayan’s warning articulated Israeli policy from the outset.

The Indonesian poll is the writing on the wall, indicating that life by the sword will be increasingly difficult to sustain in a world in which Israel has squandered its reputation, international standing, and whatever goodwill it enjoyed because of its conduct of the Gaza war, West Bank policies, and refusal to recognise Palestinian national rights.

The poll suggests that the future of the rulers and governments of Middle Eastern states and stability in Muslim-majority countries is likely to be partly contingent on their stance in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, given mounting public anger in the Muslim world and beyond, and hardening attitudes towards Israel.

In the short term, the poll suggests that, like Middle Eastern states, Muslim-majority countries are unlikely to extend Israel a helping hand in extricating itself from the hole it has dug for itself with its war conduct and rejection of Palestinian rights without a fundamental change of Israeli policies.

As a result, the hole is likely to become deeper as anti-Israel international public opinion solidifies and Israeli policy forces Israel to take responsibility for the well-being of Gaza, including rebuilding a minimum of basic services and infrastructure that it destroyed.

Adding fuel to the fire, an Israeli ground occupation of Gaza will likely mire Israel in an energy-and resource-draining war of attrition in the Strip that will engender widespread empathy in the Middle East and the broader Muslim world.

To avoid the pitfalls of its policies, Israel needs the assistance of the international community, particularly Middle Eastern states and the Muslim world, including support for a credible post-war Palestinian administration of Gaza backed by a multi-national peacekeeping force.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said as much in a recent Fox News interview.

"We don’t want to keep (Gaza). We want to have a security perimeter, but we don’t want to govern it. We don’t want to be there as a governing body," Mr. Netanyahu said.

Ultimately, Mr. Netanyahu said, Israel hoped to “hand (Gaza) over to Arab forces that will govern it properly, without threatening us, and giving the Gazans a good life.”

The Indonesian poll suggests that, beyond Arab states refusing to become instruments of Israeli designs, Muslim-majority states are unlikely to engage without linking engagement to a credible and equitable pathway to a resolution of the conflict.

That hasn't prevented Indonesia from agreeing to accept 2,000 injured Gazans, including their families, for treatment in a medical facility that is being readied on Galang Island off the coast of Sumatra.

Careful to ensure that the gesture is not perceived as acquiescence to Israel's depopulation policy, Indonesia insists the Gazans would return to the Strip once they have recovered.

By insisting on the return of the Gazans, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is countering persistent Israel-inspired claims that his country could be the next Muslim-majority state to recognise Israel, and playing to domestic public opinion.

Mossad chief David Barnea tells US President Donald J. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, about contacts with Indonesia

Last month, David Barnea, the head of Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service, unsuccessfully tried to persuade the Trump administration to offer incentives to Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Libya to accept hundreds of thousands of Gazan Palestinians.

“Israel is trying to play with our expectation…that everyone is waiting to sell out the Palestinians, which is part of the history, and Israel uses that for what I would suggest is a spin and disinformation game. It wants us to believe that more normalisation is just around the corner. So, it will spread stories that Indonesia…was in secret talks; it’s about to happen. Utter nonsense, not happening,” said former Israeli peace negotiator Daniel Levy.

Responding to Israeli-inspired media reports and Mr. Barnea’s effort, Mr. Subianto said Indonesia would be willing to establish diplomatic relations with Israel once Israel recognised a Palestinian state.

The Indonesian poll, conducted by MEDIAN, a Jakarta-based survey and research company, revealed that a majority of Indonesians follow news from the Middle East several times a week, if not daily, with an emphasis on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Credit: MEDIAN

Conducted in June, the survey showed a ten-point drop in public Indonesian support for the notion that both Israel and Palestine have the right to a state, with 30,2 per cent endorsing a two-state solution compared to 40.5 per cent in a similar survey in February.

In the same vein, the percentage of Indonesians believing that only Palestinians are entitled to a state rose in June to 67.3 per cent as opposed to 56.9 per cent in February.

Credit: MEDIAN

A whopping 74.9 per cent of those surveyed in June argued that Indonesia should never establish diplomatic relations with Israel or recognise the Jewish state.

A 2022 poll conducted by Saifulmujani, another Jakarta-based research consultancy, showed 51 per cent of Indonesian Muslims harbouring serious misgivings about having Jewish neighbours. Fifty-seven 57 percent opposed allowing Jews to teach in public schools, and 61 per cent objected to Jews becoming government officials.

In 2023, the alliance of Islamic scholars on the Javan island of Madura, a region with a history of intolerance, protested the participation of an Argentinian rabbi, known for her advocacy of human rights, in a summit of religious leaders organised by Nahdlatul Ulama, the world’s largest and most moderate Muslim civil society movement, under the auspices of than Indonesian President Joko Widodo.

That same year, world soccer body FIFA stripped Indonesia of its FIFA Under-20 World Cup hosting rights after the governor of Bali refused to allow the Israeli squad to compete in the tournament.

Credit: MEDIAN

The incidents shone a spotlight not only on pro-Palestinian sentiment in Indonesia but also on the at times blurred distinction between criticism of Israel and anti-Jewish sentiment.

Similarly, MEDIAN’s most recent poll serves as a bellwether for hardening attitudes across the Muslim world with real-time consequences for Israel’s efforts to destroy Palestinian national aspirations and involve Middle Eastern and Muslim states in its ambition to rewrite the Middle East map.

Analysing what the poll means for the Indonesian president, Indonesia scholar Leonard C. Sebastian and MEDIAN executive director Rico Marbun, concluded in an S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies commentary that “the greater danger for Prabowo is the loss of political support from his political Islam constituency if he pushes” a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Indonesia is likely indicative of trends in Muslim public opinion rather than the exception that confirms the rule.

It serves as a warning that a two-state solution risks becoming a double-edged sword, particularly for the rulers of Middle Eastern and Muslim-majority countries.

“There is a very delicate position that many Arab leaders find themselves squeezed into. On the one hand, if they displease America, they are in some trouble, and if they displease their people, they will also have troubles on their hands. In a way, it’s a Gordian knot… It’s a very tough and contradictory situation,” said former Jordanian deputy prime minister and foreign minister Jawan Anani.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.