Will he, or won’t he? That is the question as US frustration with Netanyahu mounts

 

By James M. Dorsey

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Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu appears determined to depopulate Gaza by hook or by crook, even if he has bowed to US pressure by agreeing to a reduced military presence in the Strip as part of a temporary ceasefire.

The reduced presence, involving a withdrawal from the Morag Corridor that separates Rafah from the rest of Gaza, would complicate Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz’s plans to corral hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in a tent camp on the flattened ruins of the Strip’s southernmost city close to the Egyptian border.

That hasn’t stopped Israel from seeking to depopulate Gaza by ensuring that the Strip is unliveable and uninhabitable in the hope that Palestinians will ‘voluntarily’ relocate to a third country.

While allowing some food and essential goods into Gaza after preventing any humanitarian aid from entering for 130 days, Israel continues to throttle the flow so that it remains far below what is needed.

In addition, Israel complicates access to whatever aid makes it into Gaza by restricting distribution to the one site operated by the controversial Israel and US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation near Rafah and some United Nations-managed points.

Daily Israeli attacks kill tens of desperate Palestinians, as many risk travelling to the Foundation’s distribution hub or looting the UN convoys allowed entry.

In what appeared to be an attempt to coerce Hamas into a ceasefire agreement, Israel this week issued a forced evacuation order for Palestinians in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza.

Israeli leaflets dropped urged Palestinians to leave because the military was about to “operate in areas where it has not operated in the past.”

Simultaneously, Israel’s Arabic-language military spokesman Lt Col Avichay Adraee announced the imminent Israeli operation on X.

Many of those Hamas commanders Israel has not killed are believed to be hiding in eastern parts of Deir al-Balah that have so far been spared the brunt of Israeli assaults.

The families of Hamas’ remaining hostages, kidnapped during the group’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, fear that their loved ones may also be in eastern Deir al-Balah.

At the same time, Israel has stepped up its efforts to persuade third countries to accept large numbers of Palestinian refugees.

Sources claimed that Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Libya indicated a willingness to accept Palestinians pushed out of Gaza.

David Barnea, the head of Israel's Mossad foreign intelligence agency, travelled to Washington last week to solicit US help finalising potential deals by offering interested countries incentives.

Egyptian diplomats rejected a reported US offer to resolve the country’s dispute with Ethiopia over a Nile River dam if Egypt agreed to Defence Minister Katz’s plan to corral Gazans in Rafah.

Egypt fears that the corralling would be a prelude to pushing Palestinians across the border into the Sinai Peninsula.

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto said in April that his country would temporarily accept 1,000 wounded, traumatised, and orphaned Palestinians who would return to Gaza once they had fully recovered from their injuries and the situation was safe.

In May, the US embassy in the Libyan capital, Tripoli, denied reports that the Trump administration was working on the possible relocation of Gazans to Libya.

The embassy described the reports as "completely unfounded."

Arab pressure has reduced US President Donald J. Trump's enthusiasm for an idea that he first made public during a visit to the White House in February by Mr. Netanyahu.

As a result, US officials were careful not to endorse Mr. Barnea's request. They told the Israeli spy chief that it was up to Israel to find countries willing to participate in a scheme that risked Arab and Muslim ire.

Mr. Trump initially suggested that Gaza's 2.3 million Palestinians be moved to third countries so that the Strip that straddles the Mediterranean Sea can be turned into a high-end luxury real estate development.

Mr. Trump has reiterated his proposal on several occasions but left discussion of resettlement with journalists to Mr. Netanyahu when the prime minister last visited him earlier this month.

Mr. Netanyahu has made Mr. Trump's proposal official Israeli policy.

Hundreds of Gazans have recently joined Survival_Attempt, a Whatsapp group that offers a discission forum on ways to leave Gaza, in a sign that Mr. Netanyahu’s strategy may be producing results.

"This isn't about leaving our homeland. It's about survival. We are not calling for people to leave their homeland. We are calling for people to live. To survive.", said Khaled Abu Sultan, the group’s 33-year-old founder.

Mr. Abu Sultan insisted he would not return to Gaza if he managed to escape the Strip. "Even if this place became paradise overnight, I wouldn't come back. Gaza didn't just die for me, it died for future generations,” Mr. Abu Sultan said.

Hamas military spokesman Abu Ubaida warned that a failure to achieve a temporary Gaza ceasefire could persuade the group to revert to its all-or-nothing approach: release of the remaining Hamas-held hostages in one go, rather than in stages, in return for a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Strip and an end to the war.

While not reflecting it publicly, either approach is, in part, designed to thwart Israeli plans to depopulate Gaza.

Because he refused to end the war, Mr. Netanyahu, rather than Hamas, insisted from the outset on the staggered release of hostages. Hamas preferred a one-time deal that would halt the fighting and free all hostages at once.

Mr. Netanyahu has succeeded in prolonging the war but has failed to liberate the captives militarily or force Hamas to surrender because of the ferocity of Israeli attacks and the blocking or throttling of the entry into Gaza of desperately needed humanitarian aid.

In an indication that predictions by Messrs. Trump and Netanyahu that a ceasefire agreement was imminent may be overstated, US special envoy Steve Witkoff has repeatedly delayed his departure for Qatar, where he would be expected to finalise a deal.

Even so, US optimism is fuelled by expectations that Mr. Netanyahu will be more flexible after July 27, when the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, goes on recess until October, preventing far-right and ultra-nationalist lawmakers from questioning any deal or collapsing the government.

Mr. Netanyahu's greater flexibility may not be enough to stymie mounting White House frustration with the Israeli prime minister.

In the wake of Israel's recent attack on the Syrian defence ministry in support of the Druze minority in the southern city of As-Suwayda and its 'mistaken' strike at Gaza's only Catholic church, US officials warned that Mr. Netanyahu appeared to be out of control.

The officials said the prime minister's trigger happiness could put his relationship with Mr. Trump at risk.

"The president doesn't like turning on the television and seeing bombs dropped in a country he is seeking peace in and made a monumental announcement to help rebuild," one US official said, referring to Mr. Trump’s endorsement of Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and lifting of sanctions against Syria.

Last week, US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, a Christian Zionist, described the killing of a Palestinian American as "a criminal and terrorist act."

He also condemned as an "act of terror" last week's settler attack on a 5^th-century church in the Christian West Bank town of Taybeh.

“To commit an act of sacrilege by desecrating a place that is supposed to be a place of worship, it is an act of terror, and it is a crime. There should be consequences, and it should be harsh consequences because it is one of the last bastions of our civilization, the places where we worship," Mr. Huckabee said.

In response to the church attack, Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene voted, alongside progressive Democrats Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar, in favour of an amendment to strip Israel of US$500 million in military funding.

The House of Representatives rejected the amendment in a 422-6 vote.

Sayfollah Musallat, a 20-year-old dual US citizen, was beaten to death by Israeli settlers in the West Bank town of Sinjil on Friday.

In a further sign of strains in Israel's longstanding ties to the evangelical community, a pillar of US support for Israel, Mr. Huckabee also took Israel to task for restricting visas for evangelical groups.

"It would be unfortunate if we were forced to publicly disclose that Israel is engaging in harassment and displaying a negative stance toward these groups," Mr. Huckabee said in a letter to Israeli Interior Minister Moshe Arbel.

Israel has started demanding that groups applying for visas detail their religious beliefs, activities, and assets in Israel.

The far-right One America News Network, in yet another indication of strains in relations with segments of Mr. Trump's Make America Great Again support base, last week aired a report on Mr. Musallat's killing as part of a segment on the visa restrictions and attacks on Christians in Israel.

Far-right and conservative media have until now largely ignored the mounting attacks on Palestinians by Israeli settlers on the West Bank.

“The truth is, this isn’t an isolated tragedy. It’s part of a pattern of Israeli settler attacks on Palestinian communities that include the torching of homes, farms, and lives, all while protected by Israeli forces who are funded by US tax dollars,” said anchor and former Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz.

Mr. Huckabee's remarks and the One America report came on the back of mounting criticism of Israel by influential Make America Great Again figures, including podcast host Tucker Carlson, comedian Dave Smith, and Ms. Taylor Greene.

The question is whether the White House's frustration with Mr. Netanyahu and Israel's strained relations with segments of Mr. Trump's support base, will persuade the president to further pressure the prime minister to clinch a Gaza ceasefire agreement. The coming days will provide the answer.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.