Gaza ceasefire talks tiptoe in a mine field

 

By James M. Dorsey

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If US President Donald J. Trump had his druthers, he would announce a Gaza ceasefire on Monday when Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu visits him in the Oval Office for the third time this year.

That may be easier said than done despite Mr. Netanyahu’s endorsement of the latest US ceasefire proposal and Hamas’s ‘positive’ response.

Mr. Netanyahu and Hamas have responded positively to the proposal, even though it doesn’t bridge the most significant issue dividing them: whether to end the war and on what terms.

Even so, neither Mr. Netanyahu nor Hamas wants to get on Mr. Trump’s wrong side and shoulder the blame for another failure to get the guns to fall silent in the devastated Strip.

Reading between the lines of the two parties’ responses, the cracks are apparent.

Nevertheless, the parties appear inclined to accept what amounts to cosmetic changes that paper over the gap in their positions, which have not narrowed.

Israel refuses to end the war as long as Hamas exists militarily and politically, while Hamas wants guarantees that a temporary 60-day ceasefire will lead to a permanent halt of hostilities and a withdrawal of Israeli forces.

Israeli officials suggested that Mr. Netanyahu has not signed on to language in the US ceasefire proposal that refers to guarantees that the initial pause is a prelude to a permanent end of the war.

Israel’s far-right Channel 14 reported that, as part of the proposed deal, Mr. Trump would write a letter “guaranteeing that Israel will be able to resume the fire if its demands regarding the disarmament of Hamas and the exile of its leaders are not met.”

In an attempt to secure an end-of-war agreement, Hamas stated that it was willing to immediately begin talks on implementing the ceasefire.

In an encouraging sign, the US proposal reportedly envisions the re-involvement of the United Nations, international aid organisations, and the Palestinian Red Crescent Society in the distribution of food, medicine, and other essential goods.

After preventing the entry of aid for months, Israel and the United States tried to supplant UN agencies and other groups that have provided aid for decades through hundreds of distribution points, with the newly created Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.

Hundreds of desperate Palestinians have been killed as they flooded the Foundation's few militarised distribution points that a private US security company secures.

This week, two of the company’s employees told The Associated Press, backed up by videos, that their colleagues had used live ammunition and stun grenades as hungry Palestinians scrambled for food.

Beyond provisions for an increased flow of aid, few details of Hamas’ “positive” response are known, including what amendments Hamas is seeking, what an initial withdrawal of Israeli forces would entail, and how many Palestinians incarcerated by Israel would be exchanged for Hamas-held hostages abducted during the group’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel.

Of the 50 hostages remaining in Gaza, the proposal calls for the release during the ceasefire of 10 living hostages and 18 deceased.

Similarly, it’s uncertain whether Hamas will agree to Israeli demands that the group disarm and send its remaining Gaza-based leaders, many of whom Israel killed during the war, into exile.

Hamas officials based outside of Gaza have hinted that the group may agree to put their weapons arsenal in the custody of the West Bank-based, internationally recognised Palestine Authority. The officials also suggested that the group may acquiesce in the exiling of its Gaza-based leadership.

It’s unclear whether Hamas leaders in Gaza would agree to Israel’s demands, given that the group has conceded that it will not be part of the territory’s post-war administration.

Hamas officials asserted that a media blitz in recent days expressing optimism that Israel and the group were on the verge of an agreement was designed to pressure Hamas and set it up as the fall guy if the ceasefire talks failed for the umpteenth time.

“It’s psychological warfare,” one official said, insisting that an agreement was possible.

“Netanyahu may be seeking to put on a show for the Americans. He'll demonstrate a willingness to seal a deal even as he signals to Hamas that his demands remain unyielding, with the goal of laying the blame for failure on the enemy,” added military affairs journalist Amos Harel.

Ceasefire talks have so far faltered on the US, Qatari, and Egyptian mediators’ inability to bridge the gap between Hamas’ insistence on guarantees that a 60-day ceasefire would lead to a permanent silencing of the guns and Mr. Netanyahu’s refusal to commit to ending the war.

"There will not be a Hamas. There will not be a 'Hamastan'. We're not going back to that. It's over. We will eliminate Hamas down to its very foundations," Mr. Netanyahu told an energy conference in advance of his departure for Washington.

To coerce Hamas, an Israeli official threatened, “We’ll do to Gaza City and the central camps what we did to Rafah. Everything will turn to dust. It’s not our preferred option, but if there’s no movement towards a hostage deal, we won’t have any other choice.”

The official’s remarks put flesh on Mr. Trump’s earlier warning on Truth Social, his social media site, that he hoped “for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better — IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE.”

An Arabic language version of the US proposal submitted to Hamas and obtained by Drop Site reportedly reads, “The United States and President Trump are committed to work to guarantee the continuation of the negotiations with goodwill until they reach a final agreement.”

 

Mr. Trump’s commitment “to work to guarantee” falls short of an absolute guarantee. The question is whether Hamas would be willing to accept, at this point, what in effect is a face-saving formula.

Hamas will not have forgotten that Mr. Trump supported Israel when Mr. Netanyahu unilaterally violated an earlier ceasefire in March by resuming his military’s assault on Gaza because he refused to enter into negotiations on an end to the war as stipulated in the agreement.

With that in mind, a Hamas official described the latest proposal as containing mainly “rhetorical changes,” but acknowledged that some of the amended language reflected Mr. Trump’s desire to end the war.

Even so, there are scenarios in which Israel and Hamas may reach an agreement in the absence of a meeting of the minds that bridges the gap between them.

Mr. Trump could jump the gun during his meeting with Mr. Netanyahu by unilaterally announcing a ceasefire. In doing so, the president would put the prime minister and Hamas on the spot in the knowledge that neither wants to be seen as crossing him.

During Mr. Netanyahu's last visit to Washington earlier this year, Mr. Trump publicly revealed his intention to Mr. Netanyahu to engage in nuclear talks with Iran, despite the prime minister's objections.

The president also concluded a truce with Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels that halted attacks on US naval vessels and international shipping in Gulf waters but did not prevent the group from targeting Israel.

Some of the cautious optimism that a ceasefire may be within reach stems from Mr. Netanyahu's newfound willingness to engage in semantics and make minor concessions.

Mr. Netanyahu may feel that a ceasefire and release of Hamas-held hostages would give him the boost he needs to call an early election confidently.

Opposition leaders Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz sought to encourage Mr. Netanyahu by offering to support the prime minister from the aisle should his ultra-nationalist coalition partners seek to collapse the government in a bid to torpedo a Gaza deal.

No matter what, a fragile agreement on a temporary ceasefire will not enhance Messrs. Trump and Netanyahu’s chances of leveraging a deal to persuade more Arab and Muslim states, including Saudi Arabia and Syria, to recognise Israel, for the very reasons that the ceasefire would be shaky at best.

Moreover, no Arab or Muslim state is likely to establish formal relations with Israel as long as the Gaza war has not ended, Israeli troops remain in the Strip and/or continue to besiege the territory, and Israel rejects an irreversible pathway to an independent Palestinian state.

This week, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud emphasised that the kingdom's top priority was achieving a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

"What we are seeing is the Israelis are crushing Gaza, the civilian population of Gaza. This is completely unnecessary, completely unacceptable, and has to stop,” Mr. Bin Farhan said.

Some officials and analysts have suggested that the prospect of key Arab and Muslim states recognising Israel may be one way of pushing Mr. Netanyahu past the Gaza ceasefire finishing line.

A remote prospect at best, recognition of Israel is complicated by the fact that Gulf state see Israel as a potential ally and a loose cannon threatening regional stability because of its Gaza war conduct, assaults in the West Bank, and attacks on Iran, Syria, and Lebanon, even if Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite Musim militia and political movement, initiated the Lebanese hostilities.

That hasn’t stopped Syria from engaging in US-mediated talks with Israel on security arrangements that would halt Israeli interference.

Israel has occupied Syrian land beyond the Golan Heights, which it conquered during the 1967 Middle East war, destroyed Syrian military infrastructure and weapon arsenals in hundreds of attacks since the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad in December, and projected itself as a protector of Syrian minorities such as the Druze and Kurds.

Israel and Syria may achieve an agreement on immediate security issues, but it’s hard to see Syria recognising the Jewish state without the return of the Heights, which Israel annexed in 1981.

Mr. Trump recognised the annexation during his first term in office.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.