The Trump administration’s ‘brain trust’ aims to change the paradigm of US-Israeli relations

 

By James M. Dorsey

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The Trump and Netanyahu administrations may diverge on immediate issues, including Iran, Gaza, and Syria, but are weighing a long-term strategy to strengthen Israel militarily while making it less dependent on the United States.

The strategy, developed by the conservative Washington-based Heritage Foundation,  calls for a winding down of US military aid to Israel as part of a long-term effort to “re-orient (the US’s) relationship” with the Jewish state that would elevate Israel from being a “security aid recipient” into a “true strategic partnership” with the United States.

The foundation argued in a report that the renegotiation of the Obama administration’s 2016 US$38 billion ten-year US-Israeli memorandum of understanding provided an opportunity to implement its strategy.

Released in March, the report, entitled ‘From Special Relationship to Strategic Partnership,’ suggested that the United States “transition its military financing of arms procurements to direct military sales to Israel.”

The United States and Israel would achieve this by increasing the memorandum ‘s annual US$3.8 billion US assistance to Israel to US$4 billion, while reducing it by $250 million each year starting from 2029 until 2047, when the aid would cease.

At the same time, Israel would be required to increase its purchases of US defense equipment by $250 million per year, starting in 2029.

“Just as Israel once advanced from a financial assistance recipient to an economic partner of the United States, so, too, should it move from a military financing recipient to a security partner,” the report said.

If implemented, the plan would ensure that by 2047, Israel will be positioned to celebrate its 100th anniversary in 2048 as an independent and full partner to the US.”

The Heritage Foundation is widely believed to have influenced Mr. Trump’s second-term administration with many of its policies outlined in Project 2025, the foundation’s strategy to reshape the United States’ federal government.

The long-term benefits for Israel of the Heritage Foundation’s proposal are beyond doubt. Even so, Israel needs to ensure that its differences with the Trump administration over Iran, Gaza, and Syria and the Gulf states’ enhanced positioning in Washington do not jeopardise those benefits.

“In terms of international relations and US Middle East policy, (Mr. Trump’s recent Gulf) trip demonstrated a remarkable and arguably unprecedented reality: Washington is now decidedly closer, at least in terms of policy goals and perspectives, to Saudi Arabia than it is to Israel,” said analyst Hussein Ibish.

“The dollar signs were everywhere in a trip that was almost all about money,” Mr. Ibish added.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar pledged up to US$3.6 trillion in investments in the United States during Mr. Trump’s three-nation ‘business’ trip.

Acknowledging that the United States gives Israel annually “close to $4 billion for weapons,” Mr. Netanyahu echoed the Heritage plan when he suggested earlier this month that  “we'll reach a point where we wean ourselves off it, just as we weaned ourselves off economic aid."

Mr. Netanyahu spoke after Israel and its Washington allies suffered setbacks, including Mr. Trump’s focus on negotiations with Iran rather than military action, the truce with Yemen’s Houthis that did not halt the rebels’ missile attacks on Israel, and willingness to talk to Hamas directly.

Mr. Netanyahu’s remarks also came as Mr. Trump fired dozens of National Security Council officials, including senior pro-Israel figures Eric Trager, the senior director for the Middle East and North Africa — the lead official on the Middle East — and Merav Ceren, the director for Israel and Iran.

Mr. Trager, an expert on Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood, was part of US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff’s Iran negotiating team.

Officials said the firings were part of an effort to centralise foreign policy decision-making.

Last month, Mr. Trump removed National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, known for his close ties to Israel, and fired several of his top aides. Secretary of State Marco Rubio replaced Mr. Waltz.

Pointing to Mr. Trump’s remarks during his recent visit to Saudi Arabia, Israeli officials fear that the president has allowed the Make America Great Again crowd in his administration to get the upper hand.

Mr. Trump railed against “the so-called nation-builders, neocons or liberal nonprofits like those who spent trillions and trillions of dollars failing to develop Kabul, Baghdad, so many other cities.”

Many in the Make America Great Again crowd argue that US and Israeli interests do not always coincide and that the United States should protect its interests, even if that is to Israel’s detriment.

Even so, the Heritage Foundation plan suggests that the Make America Great Again crowd is not about to throw Israel to the wolves.

Mr. Netanyahu stymied a public launch of the Heritage plan in another indication that the prime minister is more concerned about his short-term political interests and what he believes are Israel’s immediate concerns rather than the Jewish state’s long-term interests.

Heritage cancelled its March public presentation of the plan after Yechiel Leiter, Israel’s ambassador to the United States, cancelled his participation in the event.

With Mr. Trump’s focus on business deals, many involving technology, Israeli technology entrepreneurs, like the Heritage Foundation, believe that the renegotiation of the military assistance memorandum of understanding presents an opportunity to alter the US-Israeli relationship qualitatively.

The entrepreneurs worry that the Gulf states’ leveraging of their financial muscle to dominate Middle Eastern-US technology cooperation will sideline Israel’s technological prowess.

“You try not to compete in areas where you have a disadvantage. We have a capital disadvantage. So, we should compete where we have an advantage, which is on innovation and technology,” said Israeli venture capital firm Aleph co-founder Michael Eisenberg.

“We’re the lab. The Gulf can be the scale-up market. There’s a powerful opportunity for synergy, not just competition,” added Jon Medved, the Israel-based CEO of OurCrowd, a global venture investment platform.

Michael Oren

The entrepreneurs echoed former Israeli ambassador to the United States and onetime member of the Knesset Michael Oren’s suggestions a decade earlier. In 2016, Mr. Oren was the only Israeli lawmaker to vote against the US-Israeli memorandum.

“Isn’t it time—with the Obama MOU set to expire in 2027—to begin asking whether Israel can continue to depend on US military aid, whether its downsides outweigh its benefits, and whether or not more secure and mutually advantageous alternatives exist? Mr. Oren argued at the time.

“The answers to these questions may well lie in moving from the current donor-to-recipient model to a collaborative relationship based on both countries’ interests and strengths. Such an arrangement would provide for investment in joint research in artificial intelligence, directed energy (lasers), and cyber—all fields in which Israel excels, Mr. Oren added.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.