Is Algeria Next?

 

By James M. Dorsey

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Algeria may be the latest target in efforts to garner further Arab recognition of the Jewish state, despite its Gaza war conduct and rejection of Palestinian national aspirations.

To that end, a Philadelphia-based far-right pro-Israeli organisation, the Middle East Forum, has put Algeria in its crosshairs in an apparent attempt to build pressure on the North African state to establish diplomatic relations with Israel.

Algeria would be a prize catch.

Representing a gas and oil-rich state with revolutionary credentials, Algerian ambassador to the United Nations, Amar Bendjam, has been a driving force in getting the UN Security Council to condemn Israel’s war conduct and impose a ceasefire in Gaza, albeit with limited success.

The pressure on Algeria builds on neighbouring Morocco’s 2020 recognition of Israel, alongside the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, and Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s declaration in February that his country would recognise Israel once a Palestinian state is established.

"This aligns with the position of my predecessors, Presidents Chadli and Bouteflika, who had no issue with Israel. Our only concern is establishing a Palestinian state,” Mr. Tebboune said.

Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika talks to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak in 1999

In a seven-minute encounter at the funeral of Moroccan King Hassan II in 1999, Abdelaziz Bouteflika told then-Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak that he would support the Israeli leader’s peace efforts.

At the time. Mr. Barak put forward a plan that would have accepted Palestinian sovereignty in much of the territories conquered by Israel in the 1967 war, including East Jerusalem.

Even so, the timing of Mr. Tebboune’s recent statement was significant.

By reiterating the policy, Mr. Tebboune sought to counter Morocco’s inroads into the Trump administration, capitalise on the signing of a US-Algerian Military Cooperation Memorandum of Understanding two days after Mr. Trump returned to the Oval Office, and align Algeria with Saudi Arabia in advance of President Donald Trump’s May 13 visit to the kingdom with recognition of Israel high on his agenda.

Saudi Arabia, the crown jewel in a further Arab opening to Israel, has hardened its insistence on Israel irreversibly committing to the creation of a Palestinian state as a precondition for the establishment of diplomatic relations.

In his first term in office, Mr. Trump rewarded Morocco for establishing diplomatic relations with Israel by recognising Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, a disputed former Spanish colony on the northwest African coast.

This week, the pro-Israel Middle East Forum sought to persuade the Trump administration to step up the pressure on Algeria by advocating that it designate the Algerian-backed West Saharan liberation movement, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el-Hamra and Río de Oro or Frente Polisario, as a terrorist organisation.

The United Nations has recognised Frente Polisario as the legitimate representative of the Sahrawi people. The group's self-declared Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic is a member of the African Union, and 46 countries have recognised it.

Operating out of Algeria’s Tindouf province, Frente Polisario has waged a guerilla war against Moroccan forces that control 80 per cent of the Western Sahara since Spain withdrew from the territory in 1975.

This month, Frente Polisario denied media reports that Iranian Revolutionary Guards had trained hundreds of its fighters during the civil war in Syria, many of whom have been detained since President Bashar al-Assad was toppled in December.

Moroccan officials have long asserted that Frente Polisario has close ties to Hezbollah, Lebanon’s Iran-backed Shiite militia and political movement.

“After decades of passivity, it is time for the international community to recognise the Polisario for what it is—a terrorist group—and to support the only regional power capable of restoring order and stability: the Kingdom of Morocco,” said Wissam El Bouzdaini, the editor of Moroccan weekly, Maroc Hebdo, in an article on the Middle East Forum’s website.

Maroc Hebdo twice sparked controversies in the last 15 years, in which it was accused of prejudiced coverage of black African migration and homosexuality.

In a Times of Israel article, Forum Writing Fellow Amine Ayoub argued immediately after Mr. Tebboune's remarks that Morocco's strategic advantage because it recognised Israel fueled recent Algerian anger rather than the plight of the Palestinians.

Algerian “outrage was less about Palestine and more about Morocco gaining a strategic advantage in their regional rivalry,” Mr. Ayoub said.

The journalist suggested that Algeria may be more amenable to ties with Israel “if Algeria finds itself increasingly isolated due to its rigid position,” a reference to potential Saudi-Israeli relations and Syria’s reported conditional willingness to recognise Israel.

Similarly, Mr. Ayoub opined that a downturn in oil and gas revenues because of current trade wars could persuade Algeria to soften its position.

“Should the benefits of normalization outweigh the political costs, Algeria could find a way to justify a change in policy while maintaining its rhetorical support for Palestine,” Mr. Ayoub said.

Algeria's parliament has not moved on a draft law that would ban dealings with foreign companies with operations in Israel for the past six months.

In September, Algeria’s ambassador to the United States, Sabri Boukadoum, hired BGR Group to lobby in Washington on his country’s behalf. At the time, Mr. Barak, the former Israeli prime minister and Israel's most decorated soldier, served on the company's advisory board.

BGR Group represented Bahrain when the Gulf state established diplomatic relations with Israel in 2020.

 BGR donated to Magen David Adom, Israel’s International Red Cross-affiliated national emergency service, barely a week after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7.2023, and Israel launched its assault on Gaza.

In a separate article on the Forum’s website, Benjamin Weinthal, another Writing Fellow, called for US pressure on Algeria to release 75-year-old French-Algerian author Boualem Sansal, a long-standing advocate of Algerian-Israeli relations.

Critics charge that Mr. Sansal’s sentencing to five years in prison for allegedly asserting that western Algeria was part of Morrocco was intended to pressure France amid strained relations, in part, because of French support for Morocco in the Western Sahara.

Noting that the United States withheld more than US$100 million in aid to Egypt in 2001 to compel the release of an Egyptian-American sociologist, Mr. Weinthal said, “It should be a US interest…to signal to Algeria that there will be no business as usual, let alone military cooperation, until it releases Sansal and takes a hands-off approach to other Algerian intellectuals who support liberalism and peace.”

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.