Hamas and Netanyahu bet on each other’s unpopularity

 

By James M. Dorsey

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This week’s Gazan anti-Hamas protests demanding an end to the war could prove to be a double-edged sword.

There is no doubt that Gazans want to see an end to the further devastation of their already war-ravaged Strip, the killing of more than 50,000 primarily civilian Palestinians, and Israel’s blocking of the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza, including food and medical supplies.

Similarly, there is little doubt that Hamas’s popularity in Gaza has hit rock bottom, which is not to say that Gazans absolve Israel, the United States, and the international community of responsibility for their desperate plight or oppose armed resistance against occupation.

A mere six per cent of Gazans polled in January by the Palestine-based  Institute for Social and Economic Progress wanted to see Hamas in power once the war ended. Only 5.3 per cent would vote for Hamas in an election.

Seventy per cent believed Hamas no longer had the power to retain control of the Strip.

In a separate poll of Gazan and West Bank Palestinians, 62 per cent said they were hopeless, while 59.2 per cent expressed anger and 48.8 per cent hatred without identifying against whom.

Less than 20 per cent of the Gazans surveyed in the second poll, 19.5 per cent, said they favoured a temporary ceasefire as opposed to an end to the war, a sharp drop from the 41 per cent surveyed in June of last year.

On the other hand, 68.7 per cent believed that boycotts, sanctions, and divestment would secure Palestinian rights, while 40.2 per cent supported armed struggle.

“Everywhere around is hit. There is not a single member of the resistance here. The occupation army, with the support of the United States, Europe, and the United Nations, destroys and kills civilians, children, and innocent people unjustly,” Emad Abu Shamaleh, the owner of a multi-story building destroyed in an Israeli airstrike in Khan Younis in the last 24 hours, told Al Jazeera.

The polls and the recent anti-Hamas protests bolstered Israel and the Trump administration’s efforts to counter Hamas’s projection of itself as a popular resistance movement seeking liberation from the yoke of Israeli occupation.

Perhaps even more importantly, Israel, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates hope the protests bear the seeds of a future Gazan administration populated by local clan leaders and businessmen with no overt connections to either Hamas or the internationally recognised, West Bank-based Palestine Authority.

Speaking after protests in late March, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu asserted that “more and more Gazans understand that Hamas brings them destruction and ruin. That’s important. It shows our policy is working.”

The participation of clan leaders in this week’s protests, encouraged Mr. Netanyahu, the Trump administration and the UAE. They conveniently neglected the emotions Palestinians expressed in the polls.

The clan leaders’ participation was a step forward compared to last month when they signalled support for the protests but remained in the background.

Hamas’ many detractors were further encouraged by the fact that the latest protests erupted despite reports that Hamas had brutally cracked down on last month’s demonstrations.

Members of the influential Abu Samra family earlier this month tracked down and killed a Hamas police officer they claimed had killed their son Abdul Rahman.

“The people of Gaza are completely against Hamas and against the group’s terror and the squandering of their lives and resources for absolutely nothing,” said Palestinian American activist Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, who lost 33 family members in the war.

Even so, US and Israeli pressure on Egypt to resettle hundreds of thousands of Gazans in exchange for the cancellation of much of the country’s national debt as part of Mr. Trump’s plan to move Palestinians out of the Strip has Egyptians reassessing Hamas’ utility, particularly after Mr. Netanyahu embraced the Trump plan and authorised the creation of a government department to facilitate the Palestinians’ resettlement.

“You're familiar with the expression of Mr. Netanyahu: we have to thin out the population of Gaza. And I think that's the stage we're in now, to leave no option, no alternative, except to leave,” said Norman Finkelstein, one of Israel’s harshest critics.

Mr. Finkelstein’s analysis, echoed by many, drives Egyptian fears.

 

Last month, the Arab League, which groups the Middle East and North Africa’s 22 Arab states, endorsed an Egyptian proposal that countered the Trump plan and would keep Palestinians on their land after the war as the war-ravaged Strip is reconstructed.

Israel has blocked the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza since early March in what it says piles on the pressure on Hamas to release the remaining 59 hostages it abducted in its October 7, 2023, attack on Israel that killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians.

Negotiations to achieve a new ceasefire have faltered because Israel refused to end the war and withdraw from Gaza in exchange for the swapping of the captives for Palestinians incarcerated in Israeli prisons.

Hamas has refused further prisoner exchanges that saw the swap of 192 October 7 captives for thousands of Palestinians incarcerated in Israeli prisons unless they are embedded in an agreement to permanently end the war and completely withdraw Israeli forces from Gaza.

Most recently, Hamas this week reiterated its offer to release all hostages in one go if Israel agrees to end the war and pull out of the Strip.

Mr. Netanyahu’s spokesman, Omer Dostri, rejected the offer out of hand.

In a pre-recorded statement, Mr. Netanyahu asserted, “If we surrender to Hamas’s demands now, all the tremendous achievements gained by our soldiers, our fallen, and our wounded heroes—those achievements will simply be lost.”

He argued that allowing Hamas to remain in Gaza means “President Trump’s important (resettlement) vision could never be realised.”

Even so, many in Egypt and elsewhere believe Israel’s blocking of humanitarian aid also serves to push Gazans to leave the Strip “voluntarily.”

Tellingly, Al Ahram, Egypt’s government-controlled flagship newspaper, published this month several articles by columnists and associates of the Al Ahram Center for Political & Strategic Studies rejecting Israel’s demand that Hamas disarm and go into exile.

“Will Gaza be liberated if Hamas gives up the resistance and is exiled abroad? Of course not. On the contrary, Israel will take over the Strip and its residents will be ousted, willingly or by force… "The spirit of resistance…is a…blessed one that must be preserved and fostered in the younger generations’ hearts to…to protect our homelands from an enemy that aspires to realise the dream of Greater Israel,” said Al-Ahram contributor and Islamic University of Gaza health scholar Wa'el Laithi.

Egypt, which governed Gaza until Israel conquered the territory during the 1967 Middle East war, has long-standing ties to the Strip’s powerful families and clans with hundreds of thousands of loyal relatives and members.

One of three mediators in the Gaza war, alongside Qatar and the United States, Egypt has a complex relationship with Hamas founded in the 1980s under Israeli occupation as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Egyptian general-turned-president Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi has brutally repressed the Brotherhood since toppling President Mohammed Morsi, a Muslim Brother and Egypt’s first and only democratically elected leader, in a 2013 military coup.

Israel’s hardline, reinforced by its renewed assault on Gaza in violation of a ceasefire that was in place until March 18, is as much informed by Mr. Netanyahu’s personal and coalition politics as it is by uncertainty about how steadfast US support for Israel is.

If Israel is betting on Palestinians increasingly standing up to Hamas, Hamas is gambling on mounting Israeli opposition to Mr Netanyahu’s insistence on continuing the war at the expense of the hostages.

In a shot across Mr. Netanyahu and his Republican supporters’ bow, Mr. Trump expanded the portfolio of Adam Boehler, the president’s hostage negotiator who sparked a storm by becoming in March the first US official to meet face-to-face with Hamas, a group labelled a terrorist organisation by the United States.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Mr. Boehler did not rule out further meetings with Hamas but insisted that nothing would move until the group releases the remaining hostages.

This weekend, Adi Alexander, the father of Edan Alexander, a dual US-Israeli national held by Hamas, called on the administration to renew direct talks with the group.

"I think we should engage back with them directly and see what can be done in regards to my son, four American dead hostages, and everybody else," Mr. Alexander said.

Mr. Trump’s backing of Mr. Boehler came weeks before the president embarks on a tour of the Gulf that will likely shape the region’s relations with the United States.

Saudi Arabia wants to move forward with increased security and economic cooperation but has toughened its position on recognising Israel, which ranks high on Mr. Trump’s wish list.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman insists the kingdom will only establish diplomatic relations with Israel if it irreversibly commits to the creation of an independent Palestinian – the exact opposite of Mr. Netanyahu’s goal of emptying Gaza of Palestinians.

“Whether Trump will accept the Saudi hardened view on Israel and not push harder for Riyadh to change its position remains to be seen. If, as it is likely, Saudi leaders maintain their current stance, tension in the relationship might very well start to appear,” said Marwan Muasher, a former Jordanian deputy prime and foreign minister currently serving as a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace vice-president.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.