Netanyahu hardens his position despite pressure to lift the Gaza blockade

 

By James M. Dorsey

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Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu knows he doesn’t need to bother about this week’s International Court of Justice (ICJ) hearings on Israel’s legal humanitarian obligations to the Palestinians.

Two months into blocking the entry into Gaza of all food and medical supplies, Mr. Netanyahu is correct to assume that the Court’s findings are a non-binding foregone conclusion.

The hearings highlighted Israel’s international isolation.

Of the 40 countries and international organisations testifying in five days of hearings, only two, the United States and Hungary, are expected to defend Israel.

None of this matters.

Mr. Netanyahu feels confident that the United States will veto any attempt to give the Court’s likely conclusion legs by anchoring it in a United Nations Security Council resolution or by the Council endorsing a move by the UN General Assembly to expel Israel from the international body.

The prime minister demonstrated Israel’s disdain for the Court by submitting its defense in writing rather than sending legal experts to the proceedings in The Hague.

Mr. Netanyahu may also feel emboldened by President Donald J. Trump’s failure to date to follow up on his insistence earlier this week that Israel needed to restore the flow of food and medicine into the Gaza Strip.

Even so, Mr. Netanyahu may force Mr. Trump to choose between two drivers of his Middle East policy, money and mediation, as the president prepares for a Gulf tour in mid-May.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, demanding an immediate end to the Gaza war, have dangled a whopping US$2 to 2.4 trillion in investments in the United States over the next decade.

Ali Osman, chief investment officer of Abu Dhabi’s artificial investment firm MGX, said this week that his company planned to invest up to US$10 billion in AI infrastructure and businesses, mainly in the US.

“We remain optimistic that the technology will revolutionise the way we create value in the economy, and the United States continues to be at the bleeding edge of this technology,” Mr. Osman said.

Last month, NVIDIA and Elon Musk’s xAI joined the AI Infrastructure Partnership, a platform formed by BlackRock, Microsoft, and MGX.

 

Mr. Trump’s real estate business, Trump Organization, leased its brand to two Saudi projects weeks before he assumed office and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pledged to invest US$600 billion in the United States.

Determined to break the backbone of Palestinian national aspirations, Mr. Netanyahu reiterated his maximalist positions on the eve of the Court’s proceedings without mentioning Israel’s blocking of the flow of humanitarian aid.

In addition to failing to respond to Mr. Trump’s assertion that he was pressuring Mr. Netanyahu on the aid issue, the prime minister felt equally emboldened to dash the president’s hopes of advancing his goal of engineering Saudi recognition of Israel when he visits the kingdom.

Mr. Netanyahu categorically rejected the notion of the creation of an independent Palestinian state, a Saudi condition for establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, suggested that he may restore Israeli military rule of Gaza, and rejected any role in the Strip’s future of not only Hamas but also the West Bank-based, internationally recognised Palestine Authority.

Using Mr. Trump’s Gaza resettlement plan as political cover, Mr. Netanyahu insisted that he intended to oversee the “voluntary relocation” of Gazan Palestinians to third countries.

Mr. Netanyahu’s hardline remarks dampened prospects for a ceasefire in Gaza mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt.

Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said hours before Mr. Netanyahu spoke, there had been “a bit of progress” in the ceasefire negotiations.

Hamas has insisted that a revived ceasefire would have to lead to an end to the Gaza war and a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Strip.

Mr. Netanyahu spoke days after Palestine President Mahmoud Abbas appointed Hussein al-Sheikh, a senior Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) official, as the Authority’s first vice president.

The Council’s appointment catered to Saudi and Arab demands that the Authority, widely viewed as corrupt, dysfunctional, and discredited, embrace reforms so that it can constitute the backbone of a future administration of Gaza populated by Gazan notables and businessmen.

Arab officials, including UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed, who is among the most empathetic to Israeli concerns, congratulated Mr. Al-Sheikh.

Speaking about the possibility of Israeli military rule, Mr. Netanyahu asserted, "We will not succumb to any pressure not to do that."

Mr. Netanyahu went on to say that, “We're not going to put the Palestinian Authority there. Why replace one regime that is sworn to our destruction with another regime that is sworn to our destruction? We won't do that."

A 2021 exchange of notes between Hamas Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar and Qatar-based Political Bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh, in which they discussed a long-term ceasefire with Israel as a way of destroying the Jewish state from the inside likely bolstered Mr. Netanyahu's insistence on continuing the war.

“If the occupation (Israel) decides to go in this direction, it would tear it apart from within and lead to internal division and civil war,” Mr. Sinwar wrote.

The Hamas leader believed that an Israeli rejection of a ceasefire would isolate it internationally.

Israeli troops found the exchange dating to the 2021 Gaza war, in which both sides claimed victory, during their current operations in the Strip.

Israel killed Mr. Sinwar in Gaza last October and Mr. Haniyeh in July in Tehran.

The Gaza war has demonstrated that international isolation is not what will persuade Israel to change course as long as the United States has its back.

If anything, Mr. Netanyahu has hardened his positions, despite overwhelming international condemnation of his maximalist positions and Israel’s war conduct, genocide proceedings against Israel in the International Court of Justice, and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for the prime minister.

More than 51,000 Palestinians have died in Israel’s 18-month-old assault on Gaza in response to Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel that killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians.

“Israel is doing everything possible to turn itself into an international pariah with its policies,” said Haaretz columnist Gideon Levy.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.