Crunch time may be approaching for Netanyahu

By James M. Dorsey

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The coming days will tell whether it’s crunch time for Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

The litmus test will be whether US President Donald J. Trump forces Mr. Netanyahu to lift his almost two-months-long blocking of the flow of humanitarian aid into war-ravaged Gaza.

With the United Nations World Food Program saying it had run out of stocks in Gaza and could no longer supply hot meal kitchens, Mr. Trump said he was pressuring Mr. Netanyahu to lift the blockade.

Speaking aboard Air Force One, Mr. Trump said, “There's a very big need for…food and medicine, and we're taking care of it.”

Mr. Trump’s remark was the first indication that he might be willing to twist Mr. Netanyahu’s arm since he forced the Israeli prime minister in January to accept a ceasefire in the 19-month-old Gaza war that has cost the lives of more than 50,000 Palestinians.

Mr. Netanyahu declared the blockade in violation of international law on March 3 to force Hamas to release its remaining 59 hostages abducted in the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel that killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians.

For Mr. Trump, lifting the blockade is about more than coming to the aid of a Gazan population that is on the verge of starvation.

A giant billboard in Washington, Jerusalem, and Tel Aviv tells the story.

Credit: The Media Line

The billboards were erected by the Coalition for Regional Security, a grouping of over 100 Israeli security, diplomatic, and business leaders, that advocates an end to the Gaza war on Israel’s terms and an alliance with Arab states, including Saudi Arabia.

The coalition erected the billboards three weeks before Mr. Trump embarks on a tour of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.

In a potential sign of the times, Mr. Trump has so far not included Israel in his first visit to the Middle East, since taking office in January.

Mr. Trump was not being altruistic when he said, “We've got to be good to Gaza ... Those people are suffering.”

Beyond the humanitarian necessity to lift Mr. Netanyahu’s blockade, Mr. Trump needs the flow of food and medicine into Gaza to be restored before he travels to the Gulf.

Credit: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

The president has a tall agenda when he arrives in Saudi Arabia on May 13.

He wants to advance his goal of engineering the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has kept the possibility of recognition of Israel open, despite the Gaza war, but has hardened his stance by insisting Israel would have to irreversibly commit to the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside the Jewish state.

In Saudi Arabia, Mr. Trump will find that without a ceasefire there can be no discussion of diplomatic relations, even if that would be insufficient for Mr. Bin Salman to entertain the notion of recognising Israel.

Moreover, Gaza is but one item on Messrs. Trump and Bin Salman’s agenda, even if the various items may, at least to some degree, be linked.

Mr. Bin Salman wants US security guarantees, unfettered access to US weaponry, and US support for his plan to build 16 nuclear reactors.

During his visit to Saudi Arabia, Mr. Trump reportedly hopes to announce arms sales to the kingdom worth well over $100 billion.

Finally, Mr. Trump will want to lock in Saudi and Emirati promises to invest a whopping $2-2.4 trillion in investments in the United States over the next decade.

While Mr. Trump made no reference to a ceasefire in his remarks, he knows that the reinstated flow of humanitarian aid will only be possible if Mr. Netanyahu is forced to halt his renewed assault on Gaza.

Mr. Netanyahu unilaterally declared the January ceasefire null and void when he ordered his military to renew its assault on Gaza on March 18 in violation of the truce that called for a second phase in which Israel and Hamas would negotiate an end to the Gaza war.

In an indication that Mr. Netanyahu may be feeling the pressure, he dispatched the head of Mossad, Israel's foreign intelligence service, to Doha this week to discuss a ceasefire proposal tabled by Qatari and Egyptian mediators.

The prime minister was likely seeking to appease Mr. Trump by returning Mossad chief David Barnea to the negotiations after replacing him two months ago with Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a more hardline Netanyahu confidante.

Earlier this week, a working-level Israeli team travelled to Cairo for talks with mediators. A Hamas delegation arrived in the Egyptian capital a day later.

The Qatari-Egyptian proposal calls for a ceasefire of up to seven years and the exchange of the remaining hostages for a large number of Palestinians incarcerated in Israeli prisons.

The proposal envisions an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza on condition that Hamas agrees to lay down its arms but not surrender them.

Despite having long rejected disarmament, Hamas officials have not rejected the proposal out of hand.

At the same time, Hamas has long accepted that it will not be part of a post-war administration of Gaza.

Mr. Netanyahu has vowed not to end the war until Israel has destroyed Hamas.

The mediators also floated a “bridging” proposal that calls for a 45-day ceasefire, involving a staggered exchange of the remaining hostages, the lifting of the blockade on day two of the truce, and the start of negotiations to end the war on day three to be completed in six weeks.

Hamas was likely to reject the plan because it envisions an “Israeli military redeployment” and an agreed upon “security perimeter” rather than a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

For its part, Hamas has reiterated its proposal for a one-time exchange of all Hamas-held prisoners in return for a permanent end to the war and a full Israeli pullback.

The notion of a multi-year ceasefire strokes with Hamas’ long-standing endorsement of a two-state solution that would entail a long-term ceasefire between the Israeli and Palestinian states but leave Palestinian recognition of Israel to the next generation.

Beyond the prospects of Saudi deals, Mr. Trump’s interest in a ceasefire for whatever period may also be fuelled by his administration’s reported desire to evacuate 20 US citizens from Gaza before he travels to the Gulf.

To position the internationally recognised, West Bank-based Palestine Authority as the post-war governor of Gaza, President Mahmoud Abbas echoed Mr. Netanyahu’s demand that Hamas release the hostages and lay down its arms.

“Sons of dogs, release the hostages and block their justifications,” Mr. Abbas said, referring to Israel’s insistence that its assault and blockade of Gaza was the primary way to achieve the return of the Hamas-held captives.

Even so, Mr. Abbas stopped short of supporting the Israeli prime minister’s insistence that Hamas’s existence in Palestine as a political entity be dismantled.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.

CORRECTION: My April 24 column, Netanyahu’s allies turn Jews into potential scapegoats, mistakenly identified ADL chef Jason Greenblatt as a former Trump international negotiators. Mr. Greenblatt’s namesake, Jason D. Greenblatt, was Mr. Trump’s negotiator and is now a businessman.