Saudi Arabia's Revolution From the Top Has No Place for Critics (JMD quoted on Bloomberg)
Saudi Arabia's
Revolution From
the Top Has No Place
For Critics
By
·
·
Radical change
could bring chaos without a ‘very firm hand’
Few would describe Mohammed Al-Arefe as a defender
of
women’s rights. In one infamous video, the Saudi
The kingdom’s powerful preachers were getting with the
Under Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman,
Saudi Arabia is
seeking
to reintroduce itself to the world -- opening its
of
women’s rights. In one infamous video, the Saudi
cleric
explains exactly how a man should beat his wife.
But
when the government decided to allow women to
drive
cars, up popped Al-Arefe on state TV to say what a
good
idea that was. “A modest woman will remain modest
whether
she drives or not,” he told the nation. Other
religious
leaders, once hostile to any departure from
traditional
ways, joined the chorus of approval.
The kingdom’s powerful preachers were getting with the
program.
A couple of weeks earlier, they’d seen what
happens
to those who don’t. More than a dozen prominent
clerics,
activists and businessmen were arrested and accused
of
“pushing an extremist agenda.”
Under Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, Saudi Arabia is
seeking
to reintroduce itself to the world -- opening its
economy
to global business, and its society to practices once
deemed
un-Islamic. At the same time, the limited space for
criticism
and debate that once existed in this absolute monarchy
is
being stifled.
‘More
Repressive’
The kingdom has become “more repressive than in the past,”
“The
Salmans do not tolerate any criticism whatsoever.”
Things began to change when King Salman succeeded his
His
economic program is based on a radical shift from public
The kingdom has become “more repressive than in the past,”
said
James Dorsey, a Middle East specialist at Singapore’s
Nanyang
Technological University. “It’s a break with the era of
King
Abdullah, who often sought to forge consensus,” he said.
“The
Salmans do not tolerate any criticism whatsoever.”
Saudi factions used to compete for influence at the royal court.
Conservatives
carried much more weight, and were allowed
sway
over social policies and education; liberals were
sometimes
appeased with small steps toward reform.
Inertia
ruled.
Things began to change when King Salman succeeded his
brother
Abdullah in 2015. The transformation accelerated
--
and the circle of decision-making narrowed -- with the rise
of
Salman’s son to a dominant position in the government.
Prince Mohammed envisions a “vibrant society,” with more
women
in the workforce and more entertainment options.
His
economic program is based on a radical shift from public
to
private sector, and diversification out of oil. He’s cited the
disruptive
innovators of Silicon Valley, like Facebook Inc.’s
Mark
Zuckerberg, as role
models.
‘Under Attack’
It’s not all coercion. The crown prince has cozied up to many
“You need a very firm hand to see this through without
A search for consensus would be futile, he said, because
It’s not all coercion. The crown prince has cozied up to many
potential
critics. He posed for a photo with Al-Arefe, the
smiling
preacher’s arm wrapped around him, and held a
personal
meeting with a once-oppositional cartoonist.
But ultimately, change on this scale can only come from the
top
down, some supporters say.
“You need a very firm hand to see this through without
provoking
chaos,” said Ali Shihabi, who’s close to the
government
and executive director of the Arabia Foundation
in
Washington. “The country is going through a generational
succession,
the government is undertaking a herculean effort
to
restructure the country amid low oil prices, and it’s under
attack
by Shiite and Sunni jihadis and Iran.”
A search for consensus would be futile, he said, because
“the
political spectrum between the conservatives and the
liberals
is so wide as to be impossible to reconcile.”
‘Kingdom of Fear’
Critics see it differently, even if they increasingly have to
“Saudi Arabia never was an open society, but it never was
That’s also affecting liberals, often a term of abuse in the
The government’s new Center for International
Critics see it differently, even if they increasingly have to
leave
the country in order to say so.
“Saudi Arabia never was an open society, but it never was
a
kingdom of fear,” said Jamal Khashoggi, a senior journalist
and
former government adviser now living in self-imposed
exile
in the U.S. The wave of arrests is “part of the closing
down
of space for freedom of expression,” he said.
That’s also affecting liberals, often a term of abuse in the
kingdom.
On the night of the driving decision on September
26,
authorities began calling prominent women’s rights
advocates
and warning them not to publicly celebrate -- or
face
consequences, according to four people familiar with
the
matter. One of them speculated that the government
didn’t
want activists to get any credit for the decision,
preferring
to highlight the role of the leadership.
The government’s new Center for International
Communications
denied the claim, saying that “no one has
been
censored or warned about expressing their views.”
‘Manage the Narrative’
Shihabi said the government didn’t want activists provoking
It all amounts to a “global public-relations coup,” said Tim
Outside Saudi borders, controlling the narrative is harder.
Shihabi said the government didn’t want activists provoking
the
conservative base, preferring the airwaves to be
“dominated
by voices from the religious establishment.”
“They need to manage the narrative,” he said.
After decades of unresponsive communications, the
government
has hired new public relations firms and
appointed
a U.S.-educated spokeswoman for its embassy in
Washington.
Its new media office in Riyadh is staffed by
young
and tech-savvy English speakers.
It all amounts to a “global public-relations coup,” said Tim
Cooper,
a London-based economist for BMI Research, a
unit
of Fitch Group. The driving announcement was a success
on
those terms, he said: “If Saudi Arabia wants to demonstrate
that
it’s open to foreign investment, these are the sort of things
that
continue to put it on the map.”
Outside Saudi borders, controlling the narrative is harder.
Khashoggi
aired his concerns in a Washington Post op-ed last
month,
declaring the kingdom had become “unbearable.”
‘Tough Judgement’
The crackdown continued last week when 22 people were
Prince
Mohammed’s bold departures on economic and social
matters
are matched by a newly assertive foreign policy. In
in
the Twitter hashtag “black list,” launched by royal court
The crackdown continued last week when 22 people were
arrested
for “inciting public opinion” on social media. Some
educated
and previously outspoken Saudis are making plans to
leave
the country. During a recent conversation, one elite Saudi
lowered
his voice to say he’s looking for a way out. He said he
loved
the country and wanted its transformation plan to succeed,
but
was worried that only “yes-men” could thrive in the current
climate.
matters
are matched by a newly assertive foreign policy. In
Yemen
and Qatar,
concrete results have proved elusive. Still,
patriotic
fervor is running high. Images of Prince Mohammed
are
all over state media. Even orange-juice cartons in grocery
stores
are adorned with pictures that celebrate Saudi power:
fighter
jets, saluting soldiers, clenched fists.
in
the Twitter hashtag “black list,” launched by royal court
adviser
Saud Al Qahtani in August. He urged Saudis to name
and
shame people who took Qatar’s side in the Gulf dispute.
There’ll
be “tough judgment and pursuit” for every “mercenary”
who
gets blacklisted, he wrote.
The
hashtag has taken on a life of its own. Recent targets
include
a famous comedian who makes satirical YouTube videos,
and
a female activist arrested years ago for driving. Khashoggi
has
also been attacked online, labeled a traitor and mercenary.
“The media and the electronic army are being encouraged to go
after
those people,” he said. “It’s very Orwellian.”
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