RSIS
presents the following commentary Gulf Security: A Risky New US-Saudi Blueprint
by James M.
Dorsey. It is also available online at this link.
(To print it, click on this link.).
No. 225/2013 dated 10 December 2013
Gulf Security:
A Risky New US-Saudi
Blueprint
By James M. Dorsey
Synopsis
Eager to
reassure Saudi Arabia that the United States remains a reliable partner
despite its
apparent rapprochement with Iran, Washington has backed a new Gulf
defence
arrangement which would strengthen Saudi Arabia’s regional hegemony that
has sparked
criticism from other Gulf states.
Commentary
IN A BID to
reassure Gulf states worried about a US-Iranian rapprochement and
critical of
American Middle East policy, the Obama administration has opted to back
Saudi
efforts for regional hegemony through greater integration of Gulf military
capabilities
in the framework of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
The United
States-backed Saudi blueprint would effectively establish the kingdom as
the region’s
military superpower and first line of defence while allowing the US to
balance its
commitment to the region with its goal of pivoting towards Asia. But it
risks
splitting the GCC which was established to enhance Gulf security.
Giving Saudis what
they want
Speaking at
a think-tank dialogue just a stone’s throw away from Bahrain’s restive
Shiite
neighbourhoods, Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel made this move on his first
visit to the
Gulf since last month’s agreement between the United Nations Security
Council
permanent members – the US, China, Russia, Britain and France – plus
Germany and
Iran aimed at resolving the Iranian nuclear crisis. Hagel handed Riyadh
what it
wanted: a first step towards a union of the GCC member states – Saudi Arabia,
the United
Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman – with the kingdom as
the dominant
power.
In doing so,
Hagel went beyond seeking to reassure Saudi Arabia and its closest allies
within the
GCC that its rapprochement with Iran would not be at the expense of the
energy-rich,
fragile Gulf autocracies. The US also wanted to show that it would remain
committed to
its defence umbrella for the region despite focusing increasingly on Asia.
Confidence
between the US and Saudi Arabia, home to a fiercely anti-Shiite puritan
interpretation
of Islam, has eroded as a result of Saudi opposition to the Iranian
agreement
because of the prospect of Shiite Iran reintegrating into the international
community
and emerging as a power house capable of rivalling the kingdom.
Saudi
confidence has been further undermined
by American support for the popular
uprisings in
the Arab world; failure to provide Syrian rebels with the arms needed to
defeat the
regime of embattled president Bashar al-Assad; inability to force a
resolution
of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; and an increased US focus on Asia rather
than the
Middle East and North Africa. Saudi concerns have sparked a series of critical
statements
of US policy and persuaded the kingdom to demonstratively refuse to join
the UN
Security Council when it was elected to a seat.
Fear of being
swallowed
By laying
out a series of steps to put the GCC, in which Saudi Arabia is by far the most
powerful
member, rather than individual Gulf states at the centre of US defence policy,
Hagel
effectively endorsed Saudi calls for a union of Gulf states. This is a move
that so
far has been
thwarted by fears among some of its smaller members that they would be
swallowed by
their big brother. Indeed, the Saudis failed in their initiative in the last
year
to forge a
union with Bahrain, where Saudi and UAE troops are based since the brutal
squashing of
a 2011 popular uprising to bolster the regime.
In a rare
public statement against Gulf union, Omani minister of state for foreign
affairs
Yousef bin
Alawi Al Ibrahim, a onetime representative of a separatist movement,
confronted
his Saudi counterpart, Nizar Bin Obaid Madani, in no uncertain terms. “We
absolutely
don’t support Gulf union. There is no agreement in the region on this …. If
this
union
materialises, we will deal with it but we will not be a member. Oman’s position
is
very clear.
If there are new arrangements for the Gulf to confront existing or future
conflicts,
Oman will not be part of it,” he said.
Al Ibrahim
suggested that the Gulf’s major problems were internal rather than external
and should
be the region’s focus. Last year, Ahmed al Saadoun, at the time speaker of
the Kuwaiti
parliament, rejected a Gulf union, saying that as a democracy Kuwait could
not united
with autocratic states.
Barely a
hundred metres from where he spoke, police vehicles and machine-gun
mounted
armoured vehicles patrol the perimeter of the Shiite neighbourhood of Karbad.
Graffiti on
its walls reflects the area’s mood. Slogans include: ‘Down with King Hamad’,
‘Martyrdom
is our habit’, ‘Our goal is toppling the regime’, and ‘we bow only in front of
God’. A
local resident said: “This will never end. It’s gone too far. Reform is the
only way
out.”
Saudis pleased, but
not smaller Gulf states
Hagel
couched the new US approach in terms of “strategic agility” and “wise
deployment
of our
influence”. The US would help the GCC integrate its missile defence
capabilities, he
added, by
emphasising the GCC as a “multilateral framework that is the best way to
develop
an
inter-operable and integrated regional missile defence”. This would include
missile
defence in
annual meetings of US and Gulf air force commanders and officials; making
missile
defence, marine security and counterterrorism-related sales to the GCC as a group
rather than
to individual member states; and instituting an annual US-GCC defence ministers
conference. Hagel said the first such conference should be held in the next six
months.
Saudi
officials, endorsing Hagel’s proposals, said the defence secretary had
understood the
kingdom’s
needs and in doing so had supported their effort to achieve a Saudi-led Gulf
union. “This
fits our agenda perfectly,” one official said.
Integrating
regional defence as a step towards union is likely to prove easier said than
done
due to more than just political resistance by
smaller Gulf states. The GCC for one has no
mechanism to
make military purchases despite its members having signed a joint security
agreement a
year ago. Even if it did, Gulf states would likely squabble over every detail
of the
acquisition.
In addition,
smaller Gulf states are hesitant to rely on Saudi Arabia for their defence not
only
for political reasons but also because of the
kingdom’s checkered military record. Saudi
Arabia was
unable to defend Kuwait against Iraq’s 1990 invasion of the Gulf state. More
recently,
Saudi troops had a hard time confronting Houthi rebels on the other side of
their
border in
the north of Yemen.
“The Omani
foreign minister’s remarks were unprecedented. Other Gulf states may not say
publicly no,
but they certainly won’t buy into it,” said an analyst from one of the smaller
Gulf states.
James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S.
Rajaratnam School of International Studies,
co-director of the University of Würzburg’s
Institute for Fan Culture, and the author of
Click here for past
commentaries.
Due to the
high number of publications by our RSIS Centre for Non-Traditional Security
Studies
(NTS), RSIS maintains a separate subscription facility for the Centre. Please
click
here
to subscribe to the Centre's publications
|
Comments
Post a Comment