Gambling on Trump: Is Netanyahu grasping at straws?

 

Credit: Yoav Zitun

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Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may be grasping at straws in his hope that US President Donald J. Trump will continue to back his refusal to end the Gaza war and resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The prime minister is placing a risky bet that Mr. Trump’s recent suggestion that he is focussing on Iran nuclear negotiations, China, and Russia rather than Gaza means that the continued rise of Make America Great Again protagonists within his administration will not shift the president’s attitude towards the war.

Speaking about his feud with billionaire Elon Musk, Mr. Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, "Honestly, I've been so busy working on China, working on Russia, working on Iran... I'm not thinking about Elon Musk.”

By implication, Mr. Trump suggested that he was also not thinking of Gaza by not mentioning the war as part of his agenda.

To be sure, by doing so, Mr. Trump was allowing Mr. Netanyahu to continue the war.

Nevertheless, Mr. Netanyahu could be on shaky ground with pro-Israel figures in Mr. Trump’s administration losing battles to Make America Great Again proponents.

The Make America Great Again crowd does not see US and Israeli interests always overlapping and has successfully argued that the United States should protect its own interests, even if that is at the expense of Israel.

That could include listening to America’s Gulf partners rather than to Mr. Netanyahu.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are pumping billions, if not trillions, of dollars into the US economy and want to see the war end.

Moreover, Israel’s throttling of the flow of food and other humanitarian essentials into Gaza, recent attacks on the southern suburbs of Beirut in violation of the November Lebanese ceasefire, and nurturing of criminal gangs in the Strip may force Mr. Trump to refocus on Israeli actions.

In line with the Make America Great Again thinking, Mr. Trump has recently engaged in nuclear negotiations with Iran, despite Israeli objections, and concluded a truce with Yemen’s Houthi rebels that halted attacks on international shipping and US navy vessels in the Red Sea but not on Israel.

Even so, Mr. Netanyahu likely also took heart from Acting US United Nations Ambassador Dorothy Shea's justification for vetoing a Gaza-related Security Council resolution as an indication that the president's policy shift would not affect his attitude towards the war.

Echoing Mr. Netanyahu’s war goals, Ms. Shea told the UN Security Council that the Gaza “conflict could end tomorrow if Hamas released the hostages, laid down its arms, and left Gaza forever… The United States supports Israel and its right to defend itself from groups that have attacked it.”

Ms. Shea was referring to Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack that sparked the Gaza war.

Furthermore, a potential US decision to fund the controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s troubled food distribution in Gaza to the tune of US$500 million would boost Mr. Netanyahu’s confidence that, at least in the Strip, Mr. Trump sees eye-to-eye with him.

Finally, Mr. Netanyahu is likely convinced that even if Mr. Trump refocuses on Gaza, he is unlikely to exploit potential opportunities created by the war to revive a process to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict once a ceasefire has been achieved.

That, too, could prove to be a risky bet.

Mr. Trump did not object to recently toughening European attitudes towards Israel, including the possible European Union’s suspension of its trade and association agreement with the Jewish state.

However, the president drew a line at potential French, British, and Canadian recognition of a Palestinian state.

The administration persuaded France and Britain not to announce their recognition at a June 17 conference in New York sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia under the auspices of the United Nations on a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

At the conference, France and Saudi Arabia may propose a plan for a ceasefire that would involve the disarmament of Hamas but allow the group to continue operating in Gaza as a political entity.

The conference’s focus on a two-state solution clashes with Mr. Trump’s universally condemned plan to resettle Gaza’s 2.1 million Palestinians elsewhere and turn the Strip into a high-end real estate development.

Mr. Netanyahu has used Mr. Trump’s plan to make ethnic cleansing an official Israeli policy and a war goal.

Israel’s new settlements. Credit: Peace Now

To stymie the international community’s push for a two-state solution involving the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, Mr. Netanyahu’s government last month approved 22 new Israeli West Bank settlements -- the biggest expansion in decades.

Domestic pressures on the Netanyahu government “are tied to a longer-term policy to reshape the West Bank strategic situation in accordance with a more openly declared political and ideological vision—that of preventing the creation of a Palestinian state and establishing more Israeli settlements,” said Neomi Neumann, a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former head of research of Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic security service.

While Mr. Netanyahu is rallying the wagons, the French-Saudi conference is an effort to capitalise on potential shifts in Palestinian attitudes towards forcing Israel to acknowledge Palestinian national aspirations.

Israel’s devastation of Gaza has prompted a significant number of Palestinians, including members of Hamas, to question on social media and in discussions within the group the notion of forcing Israel to recognise Palestinian national aspirations on the battlefield.

“There is mounting criticism levelled at the late (Hamas leaders) Mohamad Deif and Yahya Sinwar for embarking upon an uncoordinated offensive that is resulting in a ‘Second Nakba’—a repeat of the defeat and mass displacement caused by launching the war in 1948” when Israel was created, said Middle East analyst Ehud Ya’ari.

Israel killed Messrs. Deif and Sinwar during the war.

A recent Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research poll found that Palestinian support for armed struggle had significantly decreased, as had endorsement of Hamas’ October 7 attack.

Credit: Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research

Fifty per cent of those surveyed favoured unarmed popular resistance as the way to achieve Palestinian aspirations as opposed to 45 per cent in October of last year. Forty percent opted for continued armed struggle in the latest survey, compared to 51 percent in October.

In addition, Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt, have piled pressure on Hamas by conditioning the funding of Gazan reconstruction on Hamas disarming and agreeing not to be part of the Strip's post-war administration.

In response, Hamas has conceded that it would not be part of a future administration.

Some Hamas officials have even suggested that the group may agree to put its weapons arsenal under the supervision of the West Bank-based, internationally recognised Palestine Authority.

The officials also hinted at a possible willingness of Hamas leaders and fighters to go into exile.

Hamas ceasefire negotiator Khalil al-Hayya suggested in April that the group would disarm if a Palestinian state were established next to Israel.

Mr. Netanyahu has studiously ignored shifting Palestinian attitudes. There is no guarantee that Mr. Trump will continue to do so.

“Israel’s current approach rests on a belief prevalent among the right that the Trump administration will offer unwavering support or, at the very least, show no interest in the Palestinian issue,” Ms. Neumann, the former Shin Beit official, said.

“Although it is hard to see how this trend could be reversed as long as Israel believes that this is Washington’s posture, such a US shift may begin in areas where there are direct American interests, such as ending the war in Gaza,” Ms. Neumann added.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.