The logic in Trump’s madness

 

By James M. Dorsey

Columns like The Turbulent World are essential reading in a world of sharply diminished coverage of international affairs by mainstream media. The Turbulent World offers fact-based, in-depth, and hard-hitting reporting and analysis of the Middle East and the Muslim world as global power shifts and the region’s relationship with Asia emerges as a pillar of a new world order.

Paid subscribers of The Turbulent World gain access to the column’s extensive archive, exclusive posts, and polling. They can leave comments, join debates, and know they are supporting independent writing, reporting, and analysis that lets the chips fall where they fall.

The Turbulent World can only sustain and expand its independent coverage free of advertisements and clickbait with the support of its readers.

So, please consider pledging your support by clicking here.

To listen to the podcast or watch the video, please click here.

There is logic to Donald J. Trump’s madness.

Irrespective of the merits of the US president’s ethics, policies, and style, Mr. Trump’s grenade-throwing shock-and-awe approach has galvanised Arab states into action over Gaza, much like it did with the Europeans regarding their defense and Ukraine policies.

“Love him or hate him, Trump has shaken things up… Before him, Gaza had no real roadmap. Now, the Arab world is singing a new tune: No Hamas, No Arms,” said journalist Amjad Taha.

Mr. Trump’s proposal to resettle Gaza’s 2.3 million destitute Palestinians in Egypt, Jordan, and elsewhere and turn the Strip into a high-end beachfront real estate development sent shock waves through the Arab and Muslim world.

The proposal raised the spectre of a repeat of the 1948 expulsion of some 750,000 Palestinians when Israel was created and appeared to cater to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his ultra-nationalist coalition partners’ wildest dreams.

Left with no choice and encouraged by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Mr. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, Arab leaders adopted an alternative 112-page, US$53 billion Egyptian reconstruction plan.

The leaders knew that, at least for now, the prospects of implementing their plan were as dim as Mr. Trump’s chances of turning his vision into a reality.

Instead, the Arabs hoped that selling their plan to the US president would drive a wedge between Messrs. Trump and Netanyahu.

The White House and the Israeli foreign ministry quickly dashed the Arabs’ hopes even if the administration left the door open for further discussions.

“We look forward to further talks to bring peace and prosperity to the region,” said National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes, while asserting that “President Trump stands by his vision to rebuild Gaza free from Hamas” given “the reality that Gaza is currently uninhabitable, and residents cannot humanely live in a territory covered in debris and unexploded ordnance.”

Artificial intelligence video distributed by Donald J. Trump

In discussions with administration officials in Washington before the summit, Egyptian businessmen and former officials appealed to Mr. Trump's and his envoy's real estate instincts, Mr. Witkoff, another real estate magnate.

The Egyptians argued that the Arabs’ plan and the president’s proposal funded by Gulf states were not mutually exclusive.

The US rejection of the Arab plan does not bode well for the Gaza ceasefire as it teeters on the brink of collapse.

Scheduled to arrive in Israel later this week in an effort to salvage the Gaza ceasefire after Israel refused to enter into negotiations on the truce’s second phase, Mr. Witkoff delayed his departure until after the Arabs announced their plan.

The White House’s response to the plan suggests that Mr Witkoff will support Mr. Netanyahu’s demand that Hamas agree to extend the ceasefire’s first rather than insist on second-phase negotiations as stipulated in the agreement.

To pressure Hamas, Israel has stopped the flow of all aid into Gaza. A spokesman for Mr. Netanyahu said Israel did not rule out cutting Gaza's electricity and water to increase the pressure on Hamas.

Mr. Netanyahu refuses to discuss the ceasefire’s second phase because it would involve ending the war, completely withdrawing Israeli forces from Gaza, and installing an interim Palestinian administration in the Strip.

The Arab plan, welcomed by Hamas, builds on implementing the second phase.

It proposes that a committee of independent Gazan technocrats govern post-war Gaza for six months under the auspices of the West Bank-based, internationally recognised Palestine Authority, after which the Authority would take over.

The plan envisions long-overdue elections in a year in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem a year after an end to the war.

Hamas grabs power in Gaza in 2007

A force that would include Palestinian police and security officials who served in an Al-Fatah unit until Hamas ousted the Authority from Gaza in 2007 would handle security in the Strip.

President Mahmoud Abbas’ Al-Fatah movement constitutes the Authority’s backbone.

The security leg would likely open the door for the return to Gaza of Abu Dhabi-based Mohammed Dahlan.

A Gaza-born protégé of UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed, Mr. Dahlan, was the Al-Fatah security chief in the Strip before 2007. He is well-connected in Washington and Jerusalem’s political circles.

The summit papered over differences over whether a disarmed Hamas could play a discreet political role in post-war Gaza alongside a dominant Palestine Authority.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt favour a backseat role for Hamas, despite Saudi and Egyptian wariness over the group’s Muslim Brotherhood roots.

Egypt has long fostered efforts to reconcile Hamas and the Authority with little success.

At the other end of the spectrum, the UAE, like Israel, opposes a future for Hamas but joined the Arab consensus in favour of the Authority.

Israel wants neither Hamas nor the Authority because accepting either would encourage continued agitation for Palestinian national rights. Israel has called for exiling Hamas’ Gaza leaders.

Mr. Trump's proposal threw Mr. Netanyahu a lifeline by legitimising the notion of the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians and making it a mainstream topic of discussion.

The Israeli foreign ministry noted in its rejection of the Arab plan that the leaders didn’t “give President Trump’s plan a fair chance, saying that it would provide free will for the Palestinian people of Gaza to leave.”

In an indication of how ethnic cleansing resonates across Israeli political and ideological divides, Ruth Wasserman Lande, an advisor to former Prime Minister Shimon Peres, who many celebrated as a peace dove, and one-time member of the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, advocated resettling Gazans to Qatar.

“They have the money, they have the infrastructure, and nobody can tell me they don’t have the area, the land, because their land is at least 30 times bigger than the Gaza Strip. So, by all means, that would be the perfect solution,” Ms. Lande said.

Ruth Wasserman Lande on Instegram

While acknowledging the risks involved in Mr. Trump’s proposal to move Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan, Ms. Lande ignored the demographic impact and likely political fallout in the Gulf of moving 2.3 million foreigners to a country where the citizenry accounts for, at best, 15 per cent of the population.

Projecting the move as a reward for Qatar’s alleged support for Hamas, Ms. Lande also overlooked the fact that the United States, with Israeli acquiescence, encouraged Qatar to host Hamas as a back channel to the group.

At Mr. Netanyahu’s request, Qatar funded the Hamas government in Gaza. By maintaining Hamas in power, Mr. Netanyahu helped maintain the rivalry between the group and the Palestine Authority.

The rivalry rendered the Palestinian polity divided and weakened to the point that it was and is incapable of standing up for Palestinian national rights.

Few in Israel take issue with the notion of ethnic cleansing or attempts to force Hamas into submission over the backs of some two million innocent destitute Palestinians by depriving them of food, medicine, and temporary shelter in violation of all international legal and universally accepted moral norms.

Neglecting the fact that no Arab state can afford to be seen to be participating in Israel’s blockade of Gaza, some critics suggested Arab states follow in Mr. Netanyahu’s footsteps by “present(ing) Hamas with a stark choice. Down one path would be a massive reconstruction plan for Gaza… Should Hamas refuse, the alternative would be stark: no full-scale reconstruction aid, a continued maximal blockade by Israel and Egypt, and only limited humanitarian relief,” suggested Dan Perry, a Tel Aviv-based former Associated Press Middle East editor.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.