Widening rift with the military puts Netanyahu in a tight spot
By James M. Dorsey
Thank you for joining me today. I am grateful to those who have become paid subscribers. I need some more to enable me to continue cutting through the fog of kinetic and information wars and offer fact-based analysis. No doubt, you will have noticed that The Turbulent World has no sponsors and no advertisers. This guarantees the column and podcast’s independence. Instead, The Turbulent World depends on the support of its readers and listeners to cover the cost of producing the column and podcast. You can contribute by clicking on Substack on the subscription button at http://jamesmdorsey.substack.com and choosing one of the subscription options.
To watch a video version of this story or listen to a n audio podcast click here .
Thank you for your support and loyalty.
Anarchy in Gaza. Credit:
Haaretz
Imagine Gaza if Israel were to agree today to a permanent
ceasefire and a complete troop withdrawal from the Strip. One of two things
would happen: Hamas would return to power and/or continued anarchy in the
absence of a credible post-war administration of the territory.
Anarchy is already the rule of the land, with crime,
violence, robberies, killings, smuggling, and protection rackets on the rise.
Nevertheless, in its quest for a permanent ceasefire,
virulently opposed by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his far-right
coalition partners, Hamas may have found a common interest with its nemesis,
Israel’s military. Not that the armed forces have given up on destroying Hamas.
On the contrary.
Even so, nine serving and former senior commanders told The
New York Times the military favours a
ceasefire, even if it allows Hamas to regain control of Gaza temporarily, that
would free 120 dead or alive Hamas-held hostages, and enable the military to
regroup and prepare for a potential full-fledged war with Lebanese Shiite
militia Hezbollah.
Informed sources said the General Staff Forum, which groups
several dozen generals, including Chief of Staff Lt.
Gen. Herzi Halevi, the army, air force, and navy’s commanders, and the head
of military intelligence, discussed the notion of a ceasefire.
The discussion followed public statements by the military’s
spokesman, Daniel Hagari, and Mr. Netanyahu’s national security advisor, Tzachi
Hanegbi, arguing that the prime minister’s war goal of destroying Hamas
militarily and politically was unachievable.
Chief of
Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi confers with an air force commander. Credit: IDF
The generals believe a ceasefire and regrouping is necessary
given that the military is fighting in Gaza its longest war in Israel’s
history. The Gaza war is in its ninth month. Israeli wars usually last weeks at
best.
They also feel that a ceasefire could end hostilities across
the Lebanese-Israeli border with Hezbollah and potentially avert an all-out
conflagration on Israel’s northern frontier.
Responding to the commanders’ position, Mr. Netanyahu
thundered, “I’m here to make it unequivocally clear: It won’t happen.
We will end the war only after we have achieved all of its goals, including the
elimination of Hamas and the release of all our hostages.”
Referring to the Israel Defence Forces by their initials,
Mr. Netanyahu insisted, “The IDF has all the means to achieve (the goals). We
will not succumb to defeatism… We are filled with the spirit of victory.”
Israeli
military rescues two hostages on June 8. Credit: IDF
Hamas took 250 Israelis and foreign nationals hostage during
its October 7 attack on Israel. More than 100 were freed in a ceasefire and
prisoner exchange in November. The Israeli military has been able to rescue
only seven hostages in nine months of fighting.
The commanders are unlikely to get their way as long as Mr.
Netanyahu heads a government of ultra-nationalists and ultra-conservatives.
Even so, the commanders' willingness to entertain a
temporary return of Hamas, despite their agreement that a long-term arrangement
with the group is impossible, constitutes a Hamas public relations victory.
If the commanders got their way, Hamas could declare victory
in the war. It would put Mr. Netanyahu in the awkward position of having failed
to achieve his war objectives at a terrible cost to Palestinians and Gaza and
potentially herald the collapse of his government.
The widening rift between Mr. Netanyahu and the military
stems primarily from the prime minister’s refusal to articulate a clear and
realistic plan for post-war Gaza.
The government has been mulling various
proposals for an administration that would exclude President Mahmoud Abbas’s
West Bank-based, internationally recognised Palestine Authority, and Hamas.
Mr. Hanegbi, the national security advisor, last week
optimistically predicted that a "local leadership that is ready to live
alongside Israel and not dedicate its existence to trying to kill
Israelis" would be in
place in northern Gaza within days. “It will put Hamas under great
pressure," Mr. Hanegbi said.
There is no indication that Israel is succeeding in creating
a Palestinian administration in its image, with the Israeli military fighting
in areas it evacuated in the false belief that it had eliminated Hamas’
presence. Hamas’ whack-a-mole strategy raises the spectre of a ‘forever war.’
Workers
repair electricity lines. Source X
This week, in an indication of the hoops Israel has to jump
through because it refuses to allow either the Palestine Authority or Hamas to
administer Gaza, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant authorized the restoration of electricity
at a Gazan desalination and water plant.
Israeli officials said the revived plant would be
administered by the Authority’s Ramallah-based Palestinian Water Authority,
despite Mr. Netanyahu’s refusal to engage with Mr Abbas’s administration.
The officials suggested handing the plant’s administration
to the Authority constituted a softening
of Mr. Netanyahu’s rejection of any role in post-war Gaza for the West Bank
entity, even if the prime minister continues to insist that Gaza be
administered under Israeli tutelage by Palestinians with no affiliation with
the Authority or Hamas.
Gazan workers have begun repairing the plant’s
energy infrastructure. The plant services Deir al-Balah in Central Gaza and
Al Mawasi, an Israeli-designated safe zone on the coast for displaced
Palestinians, that has not shielded it against repeated Israeli attacks.
Israeli officials said the repairs and hooking up to
Israel’s power grid would enable the plant to provide
20,000 cubic meters of water daily. Currently, the facility, powered by
generators and solar panels, delivers only 1,500 cubic meters due to the lack
of electricity.
Sewage
floods Gaza. Credit: NBC
The revival of the plant may help Central Gaza’s sewage
crisis. Sewage floods what is left of the area's roads, enveloping whole
wrecked neighborhoods in its stench in the summer heat.
“The sewage has entered homes… The stench causes diseases
for our children and little ones. We cough… Our children complain of itching,
bed bugs, and other strange things. We can’t sleep at night because of the
mosquitos,” said Mohammed el Bayouk, a resident of Khan Younis.
Marwan al-Homs, a medical doctor, reported the spread of
Hepatitis, respiratory illnesses, skin diseases such as chickenpox and scabies,
and diarrhea as a result of unclean water.
Messrs. Al-Bayouk and Homs’ portrayal of Gazan reality
bolstered by images emerging from Gaza contrasts starkly with Israel’s
assertion that it has the world’s ‘most moral’ military and is working to
ensure the flow of aid into Gaza.
Shades of grey recently emerged in a
rare discussion between Israeli soldiers, members of a student group
associated with far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, and a
harsh Israeli critic of the Gaza war.
Holocaust
scholar Omer Bartov debates Israeli soldiers-cum-students. Source: X
The soldiers-cum-students angrily confronted Omer Bartov, a
Brown University Holocaust scholar, who has accused
Israel of committing crimes against humanity and raised the question of
whether its conduct constituted genocide, at a lecture at Ben Gurion
University.
“They are looking at things through a particular prism. They
want to think that they’re doing the right thing. They want to think that it’s
not just revenge, and that they’re fighting a just war, but they’re also seeing
things and they can’t admit to themselves that they’re seeing. They’re seeing
the vast destruction, the suffering there, the lack of food, the numbers of
innocents who were killed. They see that and they have to somehow rationalize
it,” Mr. Bartov said.
Notwithstanding the conflicting emotions and reality on the
ground, Israel’s restoration of electricity to the desalination plant does not,
in all likelihood, signal an Israeli intention to fully restore electricity in
the Strip or start a broader reconstruction of its energy infrastructure.
Israel’s Coordinator for the Government's Activities in the
Territories (COGAT) said the move was a humanitarian gesture.
US officials and representatives of international
organisations pressured Mr. Gallant, during his visit to Washington last week,
to lift
Israeli restrictions on the flow of energy and aid to Gaza.
The resupply of the desalination plant was as much an
attempt to appease the Biden administration and the Israeli military as it was
an effort to shore up Israel’s tarnished image.
Even so, it sparked controversy in Mr. Netanyahu’s cabinet.
“Mr. Prime Minister, stop this
foolishness,” tweeted ultra-nationalist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
Israel vowed to cut off essential goods and services to Gaza
immediately after the October 7 attack. The Israeli military has since reduced
the Strip’s infrastructure to rubble and allowed only a drip feed of fuel and
energy to enter Gaza.
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.
Comments
Post a Comment