The Indonesian presidential election produces an unexpected twist.
By James M.
Dorsey
The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
the support of its readers. If you believe that the column and podcast add
value to your understanding and that of the broader public, please consider
becoming a paid subscriber by clicking on the subscription button at http://www.jamesmdorsey.substack.com and choosing one of the
subscription options. Thank you.
To watch a video version of
this story on YouTube please click here. An audio podcast is available
on Soundcloud.
In a surprise move, Muhaimin Iskander,
leader of the National Awakening Party (PKB), founded in 1998 by five Nahdlatul
Ulama clerics, including the movement’s one-time leader and former Indonesian
president Abdulrahman Wahid, joined Anies Baswedan, as his vice-presidential candidate.
A US-educated political scientist and
former Jakarta governor with close ties to conservative Muslim circles and a
penchant for identity politics, Mr. Anies is supported in next February’s election
by the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the PKB's arch-rival widely believed to
be affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood.
“This is concerning,” said a senior
CDI official.
Nahdlatul Ulama quickly denied a PKB
assertion that the movement backed Mr. Muhaimin’s move. Nahdlatul Ulama emphasised
that it was not endorsing any presidential candidate.
“There should not be any contenders
that (present themselves) on behalf of the NU. If there are any, they are doing
it on their own capacity and track record,” said Nahdlatul Ulama chairman Yahya
Cholil Staquf.
Mr. Staquf’s relationship with Mr. Muhaimin
has long been strained.
Mr. Anies’ choice of Mr. Muhaimin
appears to be a ploy to win votes in Nahdlatul Ulama’s Javan strongholds. The
move underscores the movement’s political influence.
Like Indonesian President Joko
Widodo, the country's most popular politician, Nahdlatul Ulama is positioned to
play an influential backroom role.
For now, Mr. Anies is trailing in
opinion polls behind the two other leading presidential candidates, Defence
Minister Prabowo Subianto and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo.
Messrs. Prabowo and Ganjar expect to
nominate their running mates in the coming weeks. Mr. Muhaimin hoped he would
be Mr. Prabowo’s nominee.
However, the presidential candidate
appears to lean towards either Gibran Rakabuming, President Joko Widodo's
eldest son; Yenny Wahid, a daughter of the former Nahdlatul Ulama leader; or
State-owned Enterprises Minister Erick Thohir, a businessman and member of the five-million-strong
Nahdlatul Ulama militia.
Mr. Prabowo met Ms. Wahid earlier this
week.
To appoint Mr. Gibran, the
Constitutional Court would have to lower the age of presidential and vice-presidential nominees to 35, an issue the court is debating.
While Mr. Muhaimin's association with
a Muslim Brotherhood affiliate would be sufficient to suspend PKB's CDI
membership, CDI will likely monitor developments at this point.
“It’s a long-term game,” said one analyst.
Past attempts to unseat Mr. Muhaimin have failed.
Mr. Anies’s partnership with Mr. Muhaimin
has prompted the Democratic Party to withdraw from the presidential candidate’s
three-party Coalition of Change for Unity (KPP).
The Democratic Party expected Mr. Anies
to nominate Agus Yudhoyono, the party’s chairperson and the eldest son of
former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, as his running mate.
For its part, the PKS said its religious advisory board would need to approve Mr. Anies’s choice of Mr. Muhaimin. Analysts noted that the PKS was absent when Messrs. Anies
and Muhaimin announced their partnership.
The PKS attacked Mr. Staquf in 2018
for visiting Israel at the invitation of the American Jewish Committee.
A former PKS head and parliament
speaker, Hidayat Nur Wahid, refused in 2020 to join a Saudi-led groundbreaking
to Auschwitz, the Nazi death camp in Poland.
Mr. Hidayat has long-standing ties to
the Muslim World League, a Saudi government-controlled non-governmental
organisation that, before Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s rise in 2015, was
populated by Muslim Brotherhood figures.
For Nahdlatul Ulama and CDI, the
optics are complicated given that the PKB nominally has four ministers in
President Widodo’s cabinet, including Religious Affairs Minister Yaqut Cholil
Qoumas, an influential Nahdlatul Ulama figure who heads the movement's militia
and Mr. Staquf’s younger brother.
In addition, Mr. Muhaimin is one of
16 vice presidents of CDI, which groups 109 right-wing parties in 83 countries.
Like Nahdlatul Ulama, CDI is
virulently opposed to the Brotherhood and political Islam.
Driven by Mr. Staquf, Nahdlatul Ulama
has embraced a concept of Humanitarian Islam that propagates religious as well
as political pluralism and unambiguous endorsement of the Universal Declaration
of Human Rights.
The movement advocates reform of religious jurisprudence that removes from Sharia outdated, obsolete, and discriminatory tenets,
such as the notion of a kafir or infidel, and replace the concept of a
caliphate with that of a nation-state.
“This will play out over time. Where this leads to may only be clear
after the election,” the analyst said.
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Honorary Fellow at
Singapore’s Middle East Institute-NUS, an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang
Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and
the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.
Comments
Post a Comment