Shaping a 21st-century world order amounts to a patchwork
By James M.
Dorsey
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What do
Moroccan arms sales to Ukraine, a transnational Russian Iranian transit
corridor, and US assistance in developing a Saudi national strategy have in
common?
Together
with this week’s Russian-Iranian financial messaging
agreement and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s
December visit to Saudi Arabia, they are smaller and bigger fragments of a 21st-century
world order in the making that is likely to be bi-polar and populated by
multiple middle powers with significant agency and enhanced hedging
capabilities.
So is the competition between rival US and
Chinese technologies
for which the jury is still out.
For the two
likely dominant powers, the United States and China, the building blocks are
efforts to line up their ducks in a bipolar world.
For Russia, they
involve hanging on to its pre-Ukraine war status, in part by deploying its Wagner Group
mercenaries to the Sahel; devising ways to circumvent sanctions; and hoping that time will work
in its favour in what was supposed to be a blitzkrieg but has turned into a
drawn-out slugging match.
For middle
powers, the name of the game is carving out their own space, leveraging their
enhanced influence, and seeking advantage where they can.
The result
is that weaving the 21st century's tapestry amounts to a patchwork
in which some fragments will have long-term effects while others may not even
register as a blip on the radar.
Take, for
example, Morocco’s decision to give Ukraine some 20 refurbished
Russian-made T-72B battle tanks. The deal made Morocco the first African, if not the first
Global South nation, to militarily aid Ukraine.
The move,
almost a year into the Ukraine war, is likely to have been motivated by
short-term considerations, including Russia's close ties to Morocco's
arch-rival Algeria and US recognition of Morocco's claim to the formerly
Spanish Western Sahara, rather than long-term 21st-century world
order considerations.
Even so,
Morocco's breaking ranks with much of the Global South serves the US goal of
sustaining the current world order in which it is the top dog, even if its
power diminishes.
It doesn't
fundamentally affect China's goal of rebalancing power in the existing order to
ensure that it is bi- rather than unipolar.
The loser in
the deal is Russia, which, like Iran, wants to see a new world order in which
the United States is cut down to size.
The tank
deal may not be a significant loss for Russia, but it does suggest that horse
trading is a critical element in weaving the fabric of a new order.
So is mutual
interest.
Like the
arms sale, the agreement between Russia and Iran to create a financial
messaging system that would allow their banks to transfer funds between one
another and evade sanctions that block their access to the global SWIFT system
is unlikely to have a major impact on the structure of the new world order.
The transport corridor would help reshape trade and supply
networks in a world that seems set to divvy up into rival blocs. Moreover, it
could shield Russia and Iran from US and European sanctions as they forge
closer economic ties with fast-growing economies in Asia.
Russia and
Iran are not just looking at India, which sits at one extreme of the corridor.
They also
expect to capitalise on their links to China. All three are members of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and China and Iran are close to becoming
members of the Russia-dominated Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) free trade zone.
Of a similar
potential impact on a future world order is US assistance in Saudi Arabia's
development of a first-time-ever long-term vision for
the kingdom’s national security, an essential building block in Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman's effort to modernize his military.
Saudi Arabia
expects to disclose its strategy later this year. It would codify “the
kingdom’s strategic vision for national security and regional security,”
according to Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, the top commander of US forces in the
Middle East, who is advising his Saudi counterparts.
Shaping
Saudi strategy as well as military modernization may be the United States’ best
bet to imbue at least some of its values and complicate the establishment of
similar defense ties with China or Russia. Moreover, it would enhance the
kingdom's ability to absorb and utilize US weapons systems.
“The Saudis,
under MBS's (Mohammed bin Salman’s) leadership, now recognize (their) deficiencies
and seem, for the first time, determined to address them in
partnership with the United States and to a degree with the United Kingdom," said political-military
analyst and former Pentagon official Bilal Y. Saab.
That will
undoubtedly register on the geopolitical chessboard, even if small moves also count
for something.
Thank you for joining me today. I hope you enjoyed the
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Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning
journalist and scholar, an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological
University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of
the syndicated column and blog, The Turbulent World of Middle East
Soccer.
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