Neither Saudi Arabia nor market concerns dent Dubai’s real estate market
By James M. Dorsey
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If real
estate is anything to go by, Dubai is snubbing its nose at Saudi efforts to replace
it as the Middle East's go-to business and expatriate hub.
Saudi
Arabia’s insistence that corporations doing government-related business in the
country, many of which have their regional base in Dubai, move their offices to the kingdom by 2024 has yet to dampen the
appetite for Emirati real estate.
Last week,
the kingdom eased its rules by exempting companies that are sole
bidders on a government contract and enterprises with annual foreign operations
worth less than one million Saudi riyals ($266,000).
Similarly,
big-ticket Saudi projects have so far failed to dent the Dubai real estate
market.
Prominent
among those projects is Neom, a US$500 billion futuristic,
25,000 square kilometre desert city on the Red Sea.
Saudi Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman expects Neom, which seems more like a vignette in a
science fiction novel than a real-world project, to become home to nine million
people.
In addition,
the new city s slated to host the Middle East’s first international
winter sports tournament in 2029.
Neom takes a
leaf out of Dubai’s marketing strategy that has successfully touted the
Emirate’s projects in superlatives.
Conceived as
a linear metropolis, the city in the making envisions
creating 15 islands in its first phase alongside “a complete mobility system,” the
"largest marina on Earth," and a commitment to sustainable energy and
turning 95 per cent of the city into a natural reserve.
If indeed
built as envisioned in the mind-boggling plan for the city, Neom, a metropolis
centred on The Line, a 34 square kilometre linear smart
city, will run on 100 per cent renewable energy with no carbon emissions, have
no roads or automobiles, and retain most of its area for wildlife thanks to its
smaller infrastructural footprint.
Meanwhile,
Dubai’s real estate market is soaring.
In October, Indian
billionaire Mukesh Ambani bought 5,534 square metres of land
priced at US$163.4 million on Palm Jumeirah, an artificial island populated by glitzy hotels and posh
villas and apartment towers.
Mr. Ambani
also acquired an US$80 million mansion for his youngest son.
Weeks later,
a mystery buyer purchased an eight-bedroom, 18-bathroom villa on Palm Jumeirah
for US$82.4 million.
A large
influx of ultra-high-net-worth, often cash-paying individuals, many of them
Russians, fuels real estate demand in Dubai that last year drove prices up by
70 per cent.
The
freewheeling deals were one reason why the Financial Action Task Force (FATF),
an anti-money laundering and terrorism finance watchdog, put the UAE on its
grey list.
FATF has
since said that as a result of reforms, UAE, keen to be seen as a transparent
international financial hub and a model global citizen, had become “compliant” with 13 of its 40
recommendations,
“largely compliant” with 23 recommendations and “partially compliant” with four.
Even so,
Dubai appears to have no intention of publicizing its property registry.
Critics assert authorities have little incentive to increase oversight or
transparency because that would dampen interest at a moment when Saudi Arabia
is seeking to unseat the Emirate, at least as far as corporates are concerned.
Moreover,
discretion is one reason the Dubai real estate market goes from height to
height at times of crisis, like the Ukraine war and the recent pandemic.
Beyond
Russians, recent buyers include cash-rich Gulf nationals, Israelis, people
leaving China since the easing of Covid-19 restrictions, and those shifting
operations out of London in the wake of Britain’s exit from the European Union.
In a
statement last year, the UAE said that it “takes its role in protecting the
integrity of the global financial system extremely seriously. This includes
embedding a clear regulatory framework for real
estate brokers,” who
are obliged to file reports to the government's Financial Intelligence Unit for
real estate purchase and sale transactions.
Nevertheless,
the Dubai real estate market has witnessed its up and downs.
Many see the
2008/2009 crash as the fallout of the global financial crisis, even though
research by major real estate companies predicted a downturn before and
independent of the economic collapse.
Analysts
caution that debt refinancing because of the rising cost of borrowing poses a
threat in a market in which 19 per cent of banks’ credit-risk exposure is real
estate-related.
Developers
are less concerned.
“Do I worry
about a tsunami or typhoon? Well, it's like the pandemic, no one saw it coming,
but it came. You can’t really worry about that,” said Murat Ayyildiz, chairman of
Alpago Properties, a Dubai luxury property developer.
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