Saudi Arabia banking on Muslim and Arab summits to strengthen its hand. Don’t believe the hype
Asian Angle by James M. Dorsey
Saudi Arabia banking on Muslim and Arab summits to strengthen its hand.
Don’t believe the hype
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·
Strongly worded statements are the
most likely outcome given the divisions in the region after eight years of war
in Syria and inaction over Yemen’s humanitarian crisis
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Riyadh hopes three high-level
gatherings in two days will bolster its position as a leader of the Islamic and
Arab world
Published: 5:49pm, 31 May, 2019
Saudi King
Salman opened the Arab summit with a call for a “decisive and repelling stand”
that would stop alleged Iranian aggression. Photo: AP
Three back-to-back, high-level Muslim and Arab summits held over the past two days are
likely to yield very little despite the hype surrounding them.
Saudi Arabia,
which is hosting the meetings against the backdrop of mounting tension between
the
United States and Iran, expects
the gatherings to back its campaign to force the Islamic Republic to halt its
support for regional proxies, including the Houthis in Yemen and
Hezbollah in Lebanon.
It is banking on the site and timing
of the summits – Mecca, as Ramadan nears its end – to strengthen its standing as
the custodian of Islam’s two holiest cities and facilitate its ability to
project its stand on Iran and other issues as one representing the Islamic and
Arab world.
That could prove
easier said than done. The three organisations involved – the 57-nation
Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the 22-member Arab League and the
six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – are deeply divided over Iran, how
to restore regional security, and a host of other issues.
The Iranian flag. Tensions with the
republic are a topic of discussion at the summits. Photo: Reuters
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Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan,
Algeria, Morocco, Oman and Qatar have adopted less strident positions towards
Tehran. Some are believed to be backchannelling between the US and Iran.
Behind the scenes,
various Muslim and Arab leaders, including some of Saudi Arabia’s closest
allies, are likely to urge Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to prevent tensions
with Iran from escalating into military conflict.
Officials from the United Arab
Emirates, in a bid to dial down tensions, have so far refrained from
apportioning blame for the sabotage of oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and a drone
attack on a Saudi oil pipeline, pending the outcome of an investigation.
Some leaders are
likely to advise Salman to entertain Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad
Zarif’s proposal that Iran and the Gulf states sign a non-aggression pact.
First indications
are that the advice is likely to fall on deaf ears.
Iranian President Hassan Rowhani.
Photo: EPA
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Saudi King Salman
opened the Arab summit with a call for a “decisive and repelling stand” that
would stop alleged Iranian aggression. He accused Iran of developing nuclear
and ballistic missiles, ignoring the denials coming out of Tehran.
The belligerent Saudi
tone was set before the summit, when the country’s foreign minister, Ibrahim
al-Assaf, urged an OIC foreign ministers gathering before the Mecca meeting to
confront with “force and firmness” the oil tanker sabotage and drone
attack. Arab News, a newspaper owned
by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s brother, Turki bin Salman al-Saud, called
for the US to carry out “surgical strikes” against Iran.
But despite King
Salman’s call, Iraq has deflected the attack, reflecting the division among
Arab states. Its president, Barham Salih, told leaders at the summit that the
security and stability of Iran is “in the interest of Muslim and Arab states”,
adding that he hopes Tehran’s “security is not targeted”.
A boy looks at destroyed houses in
Sanaa, Yemen, where residents are suffering through the world’s worst
humanitarian crisis. Photo: EPA
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The prospects for
concrete results from the three summits are further clouded by the fact that
Iran is but one of a host of issues discussed – and Muslim and Arab leaders are
deeply divided on most of them. These include US proposals to resolve the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, relations with Israel, the war in Yemen, the rift
in the Gulf between Qatar and the Saudi-UAE-led alliance, the conflict in
Libya, and the popular revolts in Algeria and Sudan.
The US peace plan,
in particular, is likely to be rejected in starker terms than Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman would like. The prince and his UAE counterpart, Mohammed
bin Zayed, as well as Bahraini leaders, have privately supported the American
effort, despite the widespread perception that it favours Israel and ignores
Palestinian aspirations.
Similarly, the
presence at the Arab and GCC summits of Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Abdullah
bin Nasser bin Khalifa al-Thani has raised hopes that a resolution to the
two-year-old blockade of his country may be at hand. This is unfounded.
Sheikh Abdullah’s
presence in Mecca constitutes the highest-level contact between Qatar and its
detractors since the blockade was imposed, but he is only there because the
country’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, decided not to attend. This
suggests a breakthrough or loosening of the embargo is a remote possibility, at
best.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman. Photo: AFP
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Finally, one major
reason to expect little will come from the summits is the track record of the
three organisations involved: they have no history of shaping policy and
translating it into effective action.
Given these
factors, one would be wise to temper expectations. Strongly worded statements
are the most likely outcome. Given the entrenched, opposing positions of Muslim
and Arab countries after eight years of war in Syria and inaction as Yemenis
suffer the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, that might be deemed a success.
The bar has indeed been set low.
Indeed, the final
communique of the GCC summit, the group in which Saudi Arabia has perhaps the
most leverage, was a harbinger of things to come: it made no apparent mention
of the sabotage of oil tankers, but condemned attacks by Houthi militias on oil
pipelines and insisted that Iran halt its support of the rebels.
The best the Saudis
can hope for is that they will walk away from the summits bolstered by a
blanket condemnation of “terrorism”. Riyadh will then be free to interpret this
– and trumpet it – as a reference to Iran and its ambitions.
James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at Nanyang
Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and an
adjunct senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle
East Institute
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