Soccer threaten to spark protests as Iran goes to the polls
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visits Iranian national team
By James M. Dorsey
With four days left in the run-up to Iran’ presidential
election, Supreme Leader Sayed Ali Khamenei has more to worry about than
ensuring that a sufficiently malleable candidate emerges as winner. A crucial
victory on Tuesday in Iran’s 2014 World Cup qualifier could bring thousands
into the streets in celebrations that have in the past turned into
anti-government protests.
The risks mount if none of the eight presidential candidates
wins 50 percent. A second round on June 21 would follow on the heels of the
Iranian national team’s final qualifier against South Korea on June 18. An
Iranian victory in that game would provide Iranians two opportunities to
celebrate: on match day and when the victorious team returns to Tehran shortly
thereafter.
If the past is any yardstick, World Cup soccer victories are
volatile moments in Iran. This time round, a soccer victory could prove to be
particularly volatile. Discontent in the Islamic republic is bubbling at the
service. While the elections as a result of the disqualification of former
president Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, who is seen as a reformer, are less likely to
provoke mass protests as they did in 2009 against a poll that was perceived to
have fraudulently returned President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to a second term in
office, soccer could provide the spark.
The strength of a desire for change among a significant segment
of the public is reflected in the emergence of Hassan Rohani, a cleric who was
Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator in the early 2000s, as a reformer and potential
frontrunner. The importance of sports in general and soccer in particular is
highlighted by the fact that political interference has become an important
theme in the election campaign.
Presidential candidate and former foreign minister Ali Akbar
Velayati vowed in one of three televised debates among the candidates that he
would ensure that sports management is shielded from interference by the
government and the Revolutionary Guards by returning it to professionals. By
the same token, Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baker Qalibaf, widely viewed as a
conservative, prepared for his candidacy by using his municipality and its bank
to sponsor clubs.
Mr. Qalibaf’s move is in line with the growing influence of
the Revolutionary Guards and other security officials in the management of the
country’s major soccer clubs by either taking over ownership or ensuring that
they play an influential role in management. This includes clubs like
Persepolis, Iran’s most popular club that has its roots in the left and
historically catered to Iran’s lower social classes, and Traktor Sazi. Based in
Tabriz, the capital of the predominantly Azeri province of Eastern Azerbaijan, Traktor
Sazi has emerged as a symbol of an Azeri national identity. Its stadium has
been the scene of environmental and nationalist protests in recent years.
The potential of World Cup qualifiers to create opportunity
for protest in Iran was demonstrated in 1997, 1998, 2002 and 2006. When Iran’s 1997
victory against Australia qualified it for the first time in two decades for
the World Cup finals, public celebrations quickly turned into protests. They
erupted barely a month after the election of Mohammed Khatami as president held
out the promise of a less restricted society. Men and women honked their car
horns, waved Iranian flags and danced in the streets together to blacklisted
music and sang nationalist songs as they did six months later when Iran
defeated the United States. Some chanted, “Death to the Mullahs.” Some 5,000 women stormed Teheran’s Azadi
stadium where the team was being welcomed in protest against their banning from
attending soccer matches in defiance of calls in the media for them to watch
the ceremony on television at home.
Bahrain’s defeat of Iran four years later in a World Cup
qualifier sparked mass protests against a backdrop of mounting disappointment
with Mr. Khatami’s failure to implement change. Shouting anti-government
slogans, soccer fans attacked banks and public offices and clashed with
security forces. Khatami’s younger brother, the then deputy speaker of
parliament, warned that the protests reflected popular frustration with
unemployment and low standards of living and a rejection of the regime’s
“excessive interference in people’s private lives.” The protests ignited heated debate in parliament
and on the pitch about where the Islamic republic was heading.
Like in 1998, women celebrated soccer victories in 2002 and
2006 by discarding their veils and mixing with the opposite sex. When Iran’s
chances were dashed by Bahrain, rumors abounded that the match had been fixed
to ensure a loss so that people would not take to the street. Journalist Nicole
Byrne, who attended a match against Ireland in Tehran’s Azadi Stadium days after
Iran’s loss reported that “under an enormous mural of the late Ayatollah
Khomeini, Iranians ripped out and set fire to seats, tore down banners
depicting images of the country's senior mullahs and trashed the windscreens of
several hundred cars outside.”
An Iranian sports journalist notes that “in terms of freedom
of expression, soccer stadiums are nearly as important as the Internet in Iran
now. The protest is more secure there because the police can't arrest thousands
of people at once. State television broadcasts many matches live and the people
use it as a stage for resistance. They're showing banners to the cameras and
chanting protest songs, which is why some games are broadcast without sound
now.”
Mr. Ahmadinejad, a player and fan, who was at the forefront
of increased Revolutionary Guard influence in soccer in a bid to use soccer’s
popularity to enhance his image, visited the Iranian national team in advance
of the match against Lebanon. Unable to run for a third term and having failed
to position a presidential candidate close to him, Mr. Ahmadinejad is concerned
about his legacy and the possibility of charges of corruption and economic
mismanagement once he no longer enjoys immunity.
Lebanon’s national team coach, German-born Theo Buecker, holds
out little hope for Mr. Khamenei’s ability to avoid potential soccer-related
protest. He notes that Iran has to win on Tuesday. The match “is not important
for us,” he says, adding that he is not able to field some of his top players
because they were suspended in a match-fixing scandal. That raises the likelihood
of celebrations and increases the risk of protests on the eve of the
presidential election.
James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam
School of International Studies, co-director of the University of Würzburg’s
Institute of Fan Culture, and the author of The Turbulent World of Middle East
Soccer blog.
Comments
Post a Comment