Israel’s Middle East war: Yemen is definitely next, maybe Iran too

 

By James M. Dorsey

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Much like Hezbollah miscalculated with its 15-month-long war of attrition against Israel, Yemen’s Houthi rebels risk being the next target in Israel’s campaign to rewrite the Middle East’s political map.

“We will act with strength, determination, and ingenuity. Even if it takes time, the result will be the same as with other terrorist arms,” said Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu

Some Israelis suggest that to effectively target the Houthis, Israel should simultaneously emasculate Iran, already on the defensive because of the loss of ousted President Bashar al Assad’s Syria, the weakening of Lebanese Shiite Muslim militia Hezbollah, and severe Israeli damage inflicted on the Islamic Republic’s air defenses.

David Barnea, the head of Israel’s Mossad foreign intelligence service, egged on by senior military commanders and opposition leader and former defense minister, military chief-of-staff, and War Cabinet member Benny Gantz, advised Mr. Netanyahu to attack both the Houthis and Iran in response to the most recent Houthi missile attack against Israel.

Israel this week targeted Sanaa International Airport, the Yemeni capital’s Heyzaz power station, the Ras Katib power station, the Al-Salif and AlHudaydah ports, and the Ras Issa Oil Facility in Al-Hudaydah province.

The attacks didn’t prevent the Houthis from launching a projectile at Israel for the fifth time in eight days.

“We need to go for…Iran — if we only hit the Houthis, it’s not certain we’ll manage to stop them,” Israel’s Channel 13 quoted Mr. Barnea as saying.

Mr. Barnea’s notion that Israel may not be able to defeat the Houthis was shared by analysts, even though they did not necessarily favour the targeting of Iran.

Yoel Guzansky, a Gulf expert and former Israeli National Security Council official, said the Houthis "don't have a lot to lose. They cannot be deterred."

Israel's focus on Yemen sparked speculation Israel may support the United Arab Emirates' aspirations to control oil-rich southern Yemen, including the Hadramawt governorate, traditionally a preserve of Saudi influence on the Arabian Sea.

In competition with Saudi Arabia in the Yemen war, the UAE supports groups whose goals run the gamut from establishing Hadramawt as an autonomous region within a unified Yemen to reverting to the pre-1990 division of the north and south into separate independent states.

Prominent Israeli Middle East affairs analyst Ehud Yaari suggested Israeli military strikes in Yemen should be designed to fuel tension between the Houthis, who control northern Yemen, and UAE-backed groups in the south.

The Houthis’ “concern is that Israel will direct its airplanes to the areas of friction between the Houthis and the Aden government’s army and its elite units, the (Southern) Giants (Brigade), which were armed by Abu Dhabi," Mr. Yaari said.

Emblem of the Southern Giants Brigades. The inscription reads "Allah is the greatest, The Southern, Giants Brigades." Credit: Wikipedia

The analyst suggested that Houthis feared Israeli attacks would enable rival groups to cobble back territory controlled by the rebel group.

It’ worth thinking “carefully about what will agitate the Houthis more – damaging the ports and energy facilities or moves that may open the gate to their Yemenite enemies from the south," Mr. Yaari said.

So far, Israeli retaliation for repeated Houthi missile attacks has involved air strikes against Yemeni infrastructure. Mr. Yaari did not suggest what kind of targets would strengthen the Houthis’ opponents.

Mr. Netanyahu sees taking on the Houthis as dealing another devastating blow to the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance that groups non-state actors aligned with the Islamic Republic.

The Axis, which includes the Houthis and Iraqi Shiite militias, is a shadow of itself with the loss of Syria and the weakening of Hezbollah and Hamas.

Iranian support for the Houthis is one driver of Mr. Netanyahu’s wanting to target Iran. Iran’s nuclear programme is another.

For Mr. Netanyahu, the question is not if but when to strike in Iran.

Credit Euronews

Israeli media reports suggest Mr. Netanyahu will wait until US President-elect Donald J. Trump enters the Oval Office on January 20 in the belief that the incoming president, contrary to outgoing President Joe Biden, would back Israeli action against Iran.

Mr. Netanyahu takes his cue from hardline pro-Israel nominees like Mr. Trump’s National Security Advisor-elect advisor Mike Waltz, who this week said Mr. Netanyahu deserved much of the credit for the rapid changes in the Middle East.

Mr. Waltz pointed to Israel’s “taking down Hezbollah, which everyone said couldn't be done and would be too provocative” and exposing Iran's air defenses, so they literally are naked right now and on their back foot…hitting their finances across the region and the money that has been flowing out of Tehran into Beirut and its proxies in Syria and elsewhere."

Some analysts say under-the-radar-nominees for second-tier level positions in the new administration suggest Mr. Netanyahu could encounter more resistance than he expects.

Source: X

Haaretz Washington correspondent Ben Samuels pointed to Elbridge Colby, Mr. Trump’s incoming undersecretary of defense for policy.

In Mr. Trump’s first term, Mr. Colby objected to blanket US support for Israel as a bulwark against a nuclear Iran.

“Look, Iran's a bad regime. We don't want them to have a nuclear weapon. We don't want to support groups attacking Israel, etc., etc. But haven't we learned the lesson over the last 25 years about the ill-advised nature of very significant conflicts in the Middle East that don't have clear goals and connection to American interests?" Mr. Colby asked.

In Mr. Trump’s new administration, Mr. Colby is expected to play a role in negotiating a new US-Israel memorandum of understanding, that would involve military assistance.

Similarly, Vivek Ramaswamy, who together with Elon Musk, will oversee the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency, has questioned US military aid to Israel.

“Tt is at least reasonable to ask the question of whether the supposedly protected blanket that the US provided may have attributed to the intellectual inertia of Israel's defenses,” Mr. Ramaswamy said.

Mr. Waltz described the possibility of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon as "catastrophic."

"If Iran gets a nuke, the Saudis are going to want a nuke, the Turks are going to want a nuke. The Middle East exploding – not literally but figuratively – in a nuclear arms race should scare every American," Mr. Waltz said.

Credit: Middle East Monitor

The national security advisor-in-waiting suggested that the Trump administration may withdraw from Syria the 2,000 US troops in the country.

“We do not need American boots running around Syria in any way, shape, or form,” Mr. Waltz said, defending a move that would abandon the Kurds, who played a crucial role in the fight against the Islamic State.

Arguing against a withdrawal of US troops, former CIA operative Marc Polymeropoulos warned that “a Syria descending into chaos would be a boon for the Islamic State and a counterterrorism headache for the US and Europe.”

Mr. Waltz left unaddressed whether the administration would endorse Israeli support for Syrian Kurds battling a pro-Turkish militia seeking to dislodge them from their strongholds in northern Syria.

Potentially pitting Israel against Turkey, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said earlier this week that Israel should consider helping Syria’s Kurds, describing them as  Israel’s “natural allies.”

Turkey has long opposed US support for the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which it considers a terrorist organisation linked to the outlawed Kurdish Workers Party (PKK).

The PKK has waged a four-decade-long low-intensity war in southeastern Turkey for recognition of Kurdish rights, in which some 40,000 people have died.

Locked into battle with the SDF, the Syrian National Army (SNA) is seeking to drive the Kurds out of areas in northern Syria close to the Turkish border and prevent them from creating an autonomous region.

Contrary to constituent elements of the Syrian National Army, the Syrian Democratic Forces did not attend this weekend’s gathering in which militia commanders agreed to surrender their weapons and integrate their forces into a unified Syrian military under the authority of the defense ministry.

In response, Turkish President Recep Erdogan vowed, referring to the Kurdish Workers Party and the Islamic State, that “these separatist murderers will either lay down arms or be buried in Syria.”

Mr. Erdogan’s vow appeared to bear out US Senator James Lankford, Republican of Oklahoma’s warning that “if the United States withdraws, we’ll see a proliferation of (the Islamic State) throughout that area. The Turks will actually slaughter the Kurds.”

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.