Hezbollah fights to survive, uncertain of the level of Iranian support
Credit:
Jerusalem Post
By James M. Dorsey
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In some
respects, Israel and Iran have traded places when it comes to Lebanon.
Iran sees a ceasefire as a way to shield Hezbollah, the
Shiite Muslim militia, against US and Israeli efforts to degrade the group not
only militarily but also politically and secure continued Iranian support for the
militia..
That is what Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu believes
he can prevent by continuing to wage war.
To justify his assertion, Mr. Netanyahu portrayed Hezbollah’s
recent drone attack on his Caesarea residence in central Israel as an
“assassination attempt” by “agents of Iran.”
It is unclear whether Hezbollah knew that the prime minister
would not be in Caesaria at the time of the attack.
The prime minister based his claim on long-standing Israeli
assertions that Hezbollah is Iranian-controlled rather than Iranian-backed.
Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps-linked group celebrates the targeting of Binyamin
Netanyahu’s Caesaria residence. Source: Instagram
By linking Iran to an alleged assassination attempt, Mr.
Netanyahu raised the stakes and kept his options open on the targeting and
severity of Israel’s anticipated retaliation for Iran’s
October 1 missile attack on Tel Aviv.
Mr. Netanyahu may also have wanted to exploit
recently-elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s failure to build the
bridges to the West needed to reopen nuclear negotiations and secure sanctions
relief.
Speaking in Oman, a past US-Iranian back channel, Iranian
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said efforts to revive the talks were on hold
in the absence of a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon.
“As long as we cannot overcome the current crisis, we do
not see a basis for these discussions, and we must decide whether to resume
negotiations or not,” Mr. Araghchi said.
Mr. Netanyahu’s assertion of an attempt on his life may also
have been informed by Israeli intelligence reports that Iranian military
officers are seeking to help Hezbollah fill the vacuum created by Israel’s
killing of scores of the group’s top and middle-rank commanders.
Veteran Israeli Middle East analyst Ehud Ya’ari suggested
that Iran was seeking to
steer Hezbollah towards a ceasefire rather than escalation of the conflict
and ensure it doesn’t lose its domestic political clout in Lebanon.
In a twist of irony, more than a year into the war,
Hezbollah finds itself in a situation like that of Hamas in Gaza.
Many
in Lebanon accuse Hezbollah of provoking Israel’s attack by unilaterally
initiating hostilities across the Lebanese-Israeli border in support of the
Palestinians, a day after last year’s October 7 Hamas attack on Israel that
sparked the Gaza war.
Al-Akhbar
reports Israeli demands conveyed by US envoy Adam Hochstein. Credit: The
Turbulent World
Even so, Al-Akhbar, a Lebanese newspaper close to Hezbollah,
reported the group had rejected
a US ceasefire proposal that incorporated Israeli demands for changes in United Nations Security Council
resolution 1701.
Iran is likely to have backed Hezbollah’s rejection of an
amendment of 1701 that would accommodate the Israeli demands.
Hezbollah insists on the implementation of the resolution as
adopted to end the 2006 Lebanese war and create the United Nations Interim
Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), the UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon.
Israel demanded the resolution be amended to extend the
peacekeeping force’s geographic mandate beyond the Litani River, 30 kilometres
north of Lebanon’s border with Israel.
Israel also wants the Security Council to expand UNIFIL’s policing
powers in southern Lebanon and to include Lebanese ports, airports, and border
crossings with Syria.
Hezbollah and Iran fear that the United States, Europe, and
Gulf states will link the implementation of resolution 1701 and support for the
reconstruction of war-ravaged areas of Lebanon to Security Council resolution
1559 adopted in 2004.
They are also concerned donors will make aid conditional on
reducing Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanese politics.
Resolution 1559 called for the disarmament of non-state
militias and the withdrawal of foreign forces.
Even so, Iran’s effort to shield Hezbollah appears half-hearted.
Iran has been careful not to be seen as joining the Lebanese fray despite its
financial, technological, and military support of the group.
Iran carefully calibrated its October
1 missile attack on Tel Aviv to avoid provoking an all-out war with Israel.
The attacks were meant to keep up appearances after Israel’s
July 31 assassination
in Tehran of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and the September 27 killing
in Beirut of Islamic Revolutionary Guard General Abbas Nilforoushan and
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
In a twist of irony, Hezbollah, like Hamas, is discovering
the limits to solidarity in the Iranian-backed Axis of Resistance that brings
together the two groups, Syria, Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Iraqi Shiite
militias.
Iran eulogised the recently assassinated Hamas leader Yahya
Sinwar but put
the burden of revenging his death on the Axis’ non-state members.
Meanwhile, M. Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, included
Jordan and Egypt, two US allies with long-standing peace treaties with Israel,
in his tour
of regional countries designed to garner support in anticipation of an
Israeli retaliatory strike against Iranian targets while publicly maintaining
support for the Axis.
Credit:
@hxhassan on X
“Hezbollah sacrificed 5,400 fighters defending Syria. We expect thousands of
Syrians to volunteer to help Hezbollah. Arms transfers are not enough,”
said a prominent pro-Hezbollah Lebanese media figure, lamenting Syria’s lack of
gratitude.
So far, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been missing in
action.
Mr. Ya’ari, the Middle East analyst, reported that Maher
al-Assad, the president’s brother and commander of the Syrian Army's core 4th
Armoured Division, instructed his troops to refuse to transfer arms to Lebanon
or give shelter to Hezbollah associates.
The strains in Hezbollah-Syria
relations were apparent in August when Mr. Nasrallah, the late Hezbollah
leader, refused to emerge from hiding to meet with Mr. Al- Assad’s visiting
intelligence chief, General Hussam Louka. Mr. Louka had to make do with Mr.
Nasrallah’s deputies.
Mr. Al-Assad fears
that support for Hezbollah could jeopardise his efforts to improve relations
with Gulf states, even if that puts his relationship with Iran at risk.
Saudi Arabia, the
United Arab Emirates, and Iran supported anti-government rebels during Syria’s
decade-long civil war to counter Iranian backing for Mr. Al-Assad’s regime.
Mr. Al-Assad's
refusal to be drawn into escalating hostilities in Lebanon was likely bolstered
by US strengthening of the Syrian Defense Forces'
air defense capability by
arming the anti-Assad rebels with its Avenger Defense System.
A Syrian withdrawal from the Axis, whether formal or
informal, would constitute a significant setback for Iran and Hezbollah and put
at risk the flow through Syria of Iranian military and other supplies to the
group.
Iranian exile media quoted an Israeli intelligence source as
claiming that Israel’s assassination of senior political and military leaders
and attacks on the group’s infrastructure has already disrupted Iran’s monthly
transfer of US$50 million to Hezbollah, a substantial part of which was
moved through Syria.
The Israeli military said in early October it had killed
Muhammad Ja’far Qassir, the commander of Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, and his
successor. The military said the unit manages the transfer of Iranian funds and
weapons to the group.
Earlier this week, Israel targeted branches
of the Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association (AQAH), a pillar of Hezbollah’s social
services network. Al-Qard Al-Hassan provided financial services to residents in
parts of Lebanon where Hezbollah has broad public support.
Al-Qard al-Hassan had more than 30 branches across Lebanon
before the Israeli strikes and many of them were located on the ground floor of
residential buildings.
Israel and the United States, which designated Al-Qard
Al-Hassan as a terrorist organisation, accused the group of funding Hezbollah’s
military operations.
Like Hamas, Hezbollah had hoped for greater Axis support in
its escalating confrontation with Israel.
Instead, rather than confronting Israel as a unified front
in support of Palestine, “Hezbollah is no longer fighting for Gaza - it is
fighting for its very existence,” with Israel backed by Arab regimes, the
United States, and European nations, Mr. Yaari, the Middle East analyst, said.
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct
Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World
with James M. Dorsey.
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