Jockeying for position in post-war Gaza

 

Nasser al-Kidwa (left), Ehud Olmert (right(). Credit: Prospect

By James M. Dorsey

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Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and onetime Palestinian foreign minister Nasser Al-Kidwa have put forward a proposal designed to keep a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict alive.

 

The proposal caters to Palestinian national aspirations as well as Israeli efforts to groom a Palestinian leadership that is not tied to Hamas or the internationally recognised, West Bank-based Palestine Authority and is more amenable to Israeli concerns.

The proposal is unlikely to be embraced by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, his government, Hamas, or the Palestine Authority.

Even so, major elements of the proposal, based on a plan first tabled by Mr. Olmert in the 2000s when he was prime minister, could emerge as building blocks of a transition phase when the guns in Gaza fall silent.

Mr. Olmert’s original plan was dismissed by Palestine Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Jordanian King Abdullah, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and the European Union because it had not been negotiated by Israelis and Palestinians.

Nevertheless, the significance of Messrs. Olmert and Al-Kidwa’s proposal is rooted in details that the media have largely ignored.

Credit: The Times of Israel

In a concession to Israeli security concerns, the two men concede from the get-go that an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel would be demilitarised with only a police force to maintain law and order.

Messrs. Olmert and Al-Kidwa envision land swaps that would ensure a majority of West Bank settlers remain under Israeli rather than Palestinian jurisdiction.

Jerusalem’s Palestinian-majority neighborhoods would be the capital of Palestine, while its Old City, home to Jewish, Muslim, and Christian holy sites, would be administered by a trust of five states, including Israel and Palestine.

Mr. Al-Kidwa’s endorsement of the proposal boosts its significance.

Mohammed Dahlan

A nephew of legendary Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, Mr. Al-Kidwa, is an associate of Mahmoud Dahlan, a United Arab Emirates-backed Gazan native and controversial former Fatah security chief, who has been touted as a potential post-war leader in the Strip.

Born into poverty in Khan Younis, Mr. Dahlan, a wealthy businessman, is close to UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed and well-connected in Israeli, US, and European political circles despite having been arrested in Israel several times.

Since going into exile in Abu Dhabi in 2007, Mr. Dahlan has operated on the margins of Palestinian politics after Hamas defeated his Al Fatah security force in bloody clashes in Gaza.

Nevertheless, he retains a political party and a network in the Strip that could populate a future Palestinian security force. He has also rebuilt his bridges to Hamas.

Earlier this year, Mr. Dahlan rejected an Israeli request to head a post-war Gazan administration that would replace Hamas and operate under Israeli tutelage.

Instead, Mr. Dahlan, like Mr. Al-Kidwa, insists that Hamas has to be part of the post-war political process.

Palestinian opposition figures, including Nasser al-Kidwa, meet Hamas leaders in Doha in 2023. Source: X

“I am no friend of Hamas.  But do you think anybody is going to be able to run to make peace without Hamas?” Mr. Dahlan asked.

To fill the void, Messrs. Olmert and Al-Kidwa propose that a “Council of Commissioners composed of professional technocrats and not of political representatives” initially administer Gaza.

Linked to the Palestine Authority, the council would remain in place until elections are held in Gaza and the West Bank within three years of the ceasefire taking effect.

Hamas and the Palestine Authority, which convicted Mr. Dahlan in absentia on corruption charges, have indicated they would support a technocrat administration provided they approved its members.

Hamas has suggested it would not oppose Mr. Dahlan being part of a post-war transition in Gaza.

Mr. Al-Kidwa and others close to Mr. Dahlan have called for a “peaceful divorce” with Mr. Abbas, suggesting the Palestinian president’s role should be ceremonial.

Credit: Arabian Daily

Messrs. Dahlan and Al-Kidwa’s views on the future of Gaza and Palestine track closely those of key regional players, including Gaza ceasefire mediators Qatar and Egypt, as well as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The UAE and other Gulf states have indicated they would only fund reconstruction if there were a credible and irreversible pathway to an independent Palestinian state.

Mr. Al-Kidwa argues that Palestinian youth have no interest in pathways and pro-longed peace negotiations. The Oslo peace process that started in the early 1990s demonstrated to them that dragged-out deliberations lead nowhere.

Palestinian youth “don’t want to see more of the same. They are right. We should stop talking about a process, a horizon. Statehood should be an accepted commitment from the beginning. There is no solution but dividing the land into two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace,” Mr. Al-Kidwa said.

Messrs. Olmert and Al-Kidwa’s proposal may seem pie in the sky amid the fighting in Gaza and the West Bank, but its Gaza elements could become the most realistic game in town the day the guns fall silent.

For now, the question is not if but when the fighting In Gaza will stop and at what further cost to innocent Palestinian and Israeli lives.

This weekend, Israeli troops recovered the bodies of six hostages. It was unclear whether they were killed in the fighting. Several of the hostages likely would have been among the initial prisoners exchanged had a ceasefire been in place.

Israel claimed Hamas had killed the hostages. Hamas military spokesman Abu Ubaida appeared to confirm the killings, saying “new instructions” had been issued to Hamas fighters “assigned to guard the prisoners regarding dealing with them if the occupation army approached their place of detention.

Abu Ubaida said the instructions were issued in June after Israeli forces rescued four hostages held in northern Gaza’s Nuseirat refugee camp.

Mr. Netanyahu’s critics, including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, accuse the prime minister of risking the hostages’ lives by dragging his feet on a ceasefire. Weaking Hamas’ negotiating position at the expense of the hostages may well be part of Mr. Netanyahu’s calculus.

Israeli hostage negotiator (left) and his Hamas counterpart, Ghazi Hamad

A former negotiator, Gershon Baskin, who helped negotiate the release in 2011 by Hamas of an Israeli soldier, suggested Israel and Hamas could agree to a ceasefire quickly.  

Mr. Baskin said it took him two weeks to negotiate a ceasefire deal with Hamas on behalf of the families of hostages held by the group. Mr. Baskin said Israeli security had initially asked him to mediate but he was then told to step aside, allegedly on Mr. Netanyahu’s instructions.

“About two weeks ago, the hostage families' forum asked me to try to conduct a direct negotiation with Hamas on their behalf. That's what I did, and within two weeks, I obtained agreement to a three-week deal - the release of all 107 Israeli hostages, the end of the war, an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and an agreed release of the names and number of Palestinian prisoners,” Mr. Baskin said on X.

“The entire Hamas leadership agrees to this outline, but our Netanyahu does not want to end the war. This is the situation today,” Mr. Baskin added.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.