Biden and Hamas tie Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu up in knots.
By James M. Dorsey
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Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is tying himself
up in knots as he grudgingly, and only to a limited degree, bows to US
President Joe Biden’s demands.
In doing so, Mr. Netanyahu is puncturing Swiss-cheese size
holes into Israel’s Gaza narrative, making it easier for Mr. Biden to take him
publicly to task.
Mr. Biden has demanded that Israel allow the unfettered flow
of desperately needed humanitarian aid into Gaza, an immediate ceasefire linked
to an exchange of Hamas-held hostages for Palestinians incarcerated in Israel,
and the dropping of Israeli plans for a ground offensive in the southern Gazan
city of Rafah, home to more than a million Palestinians displaced by the
six-month-long war.
Israel
allows aid trucks to enter Gaza. Credit: AP
In recent days, Mr. Netanyahu has granted entry into Gaza to
more
than 1,200 aid trucks, significantly reduced Israel’s
on-the-ground military presence in the Strip, and raised
to 150,000 the number of displaced Palestinians that would be allowed to
return without Israeli security checks to their often destroyed homes in the
north of the territory.
In addition, Mr. Netanyahu has played games with Rafah by
claiming that
he has set an undisclosed date for a ground offensive, even though Israeli
officials are still discussing his plans with their US counterparts, and
his defence minister, Yoav Gallant, insists that there is no
date for the operation.
Even so, Mr. Gallant said the withdrawal of Israeli forces
was to prepare
for an offensive in Rafah. Israel asserts that Hamas’ remaining four armed
brigades are in Rafah. It also suspects that Hamas’ top leadership, including
Yahya Sinwar, Israel’s most wanted man, is hiding in tunnels under Rafah, shielded
by many of the Hamas-held hostages still alive.
The contradictions in Israeli statements on Rafah reflect
the knots tying up Mr. Netanyahu and the holes punctured by Israel in the prime
minister and the government’s narrative.
Displaced
Palestinian children at a refugee camp in Rafah. Credit: Saleh Salem/Reuters
By asserting that he set a date, Mr. Netanyahu hopes to
pacify his ultra-nationalist coalition partners who threaten to
topple the government if the prime minister fails to launch an offensive.
At the same time, Mr. Netanyahu is attempting to engineer a
situation in which he can blame Mr. Biden if he decides not to commence ground
operations in Gaza and/or for Israel’s overall failure to achieve its war
objectives, including the destruction of Hamas and ensuring that the Strip no
longer will be a launching pad for Palestinian resistance.
Many suspect Mr. Netanyahu of wanting to continue the war to
extend his fragile political life. He is likely betting that his far-right
partners may
not make good on their threat, given opinion polls that suggest a new
election would not return them or the prime minister to office.
The far-right may not be the only threat to the longevity of
Mr. Netanyahu’s government.
Depending on how Mr. Biden and Hamas play their cards in
ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations, Mr. Netanyahu could see a split
in his war cabinet from which the far-right is excluded.
A tough-talking politician and retired general, Mr. Gallant
suggested that Israel could be flexible in the negotiations.
"We have the absolute commitment to bringing our
hostages home, and the operational circumstances created by the IDF's constant
pressure on Hamas and our position of power achieved in battle allow us flexibility, freedom
of movement, and the ability to make difficult decisions," Mr. Gallant
said, referring to the Israel Defense Forces by their acronym.
"There will be difficult decisions, and we are prepared
to pay a price to release the hostages," Mr. Gallant added.
Israeli officials said neither
Mr. Netanyahu nor Mr. Gallant had advance knowledge of this week’s killing
of three sons and four grandchildren of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’
political bureau and a ceasefire negotiator.
CIA Director
Bill Burns (left) meets Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on 7 April 2024
during Gaza ceasefire talks. Credit: The Arab Republic of Egypt Presidency
The attack came as Mr. Biden called on Hamas to accept a ceasefire
proposal put forward by CIA Director Bill Burns. Hamas says it is
studying
the proposal even though Israel’s response fails to address its demands.
Essentially, Mr.
Burns’ proposal is a
revival of a suggestion first crafted in January by US and Egyptian
intelligence chiefs and Qatar’s Prime Minister in consultation with the head of
Israel’s Mossad foreign intelligence service. The proposal called for a
three-stage 90-day ceasefire, a phased prisoner exchange, and permanent
ceasefire talks in the second stage.
The Burns proposal envisions the exchange of 40 Hamas-held civilian
captives abducted during its October 7 attack on Israel for 900 Palestinians in
Israeli prison. Hamas has committed itself to the release of the initial batch
but has left open whether the 40 would include bodies of captives killed in the
fighting.
The Hamas position has raised doubts
whether the group still holds 40 live civilians. Many of the estimated 130
Hamas captives are Israeli military personnel who Hamas says it will only free
as part of a permanent ceasefire deal.
Of the 130, at least 40 have died in captivity.
Hamas abducted 250 people in October, more than 100 of which
were swapped in November for 240 Palestinians incarcerated in Israel.
Under the new US proposal, Hamas would have to compromise on
the number and identity of the prisoners they want released, while Israel would
have to make concessions on the return of displaced Palestinian civilians to
northern Gaza.
The CIA director’s proposal goes some way to meet Hamas’
demands for a permanent ceasefire, a complete Israeli troop withdrawal, the
unfettered flow of aid into Gaza, and the return of displaced Palestinians to
their homes in the north.
Mr. Netanyahu and Israel’s problem is that appearing to
comply with Mr. Biden’s demands, including facilitating a ceasefire agreement,
is self-incriminating.
A renewed prisoner exchange amounts to an admission that six
months of military action has failed to free the hostages and, in effect, hands
Hamas a victory.
For Mr. Netanyahu, that is a double-edged sword. While a
prisoner exchange would take some of the stings out of growing domestic public
demands that he prioritise the release of hostages, it would likely encourage mass demonstrations
demanding the prime minister’s resignation.
Displaced
Palestinians wait for food at Al-Shaboura camp, in Rafah. Credit: World Health
Organisation
Moreover, the entry into Gaza this week of more than 1,200
aid trucks in three days is evidence that Israeli restrictions constitute the
main obstacle and cause of the humanitarian food and medical crisis rather than
international
organisations’ lack of capacity, a breakdown of law and order in Gaza, or
allegations that Hamas hijacks aid convoys, even if all of that plays a
role.
Moreover, while Israel’s failed attempt to incite a popular
revolt against Hamas by depriving Gazans of the basics of life is the main
reason for the crisis threatening the lives of innocent Palestinians, it is not
the only culprit.
Hamas, like Israel and the West Bank-based Palestine Authority (PA), Hamas’ archrival, sees aid distribution as a battleground that will shape the contours of the post-war administration of the Strip.
While humanitarian organisations will not surrender control
of distribution, Hamas believes it should play a role in securing the movement
of aid trucks in Gaza and maintaining a semblance of law and order.
Hamas believes Israel is attempting to circumvent the group
by approaching Gazan clan leaders and businessmen who have no ties to the
Islamists as well as, albeit reluctantly, senior Palestine Authority
intelligence officials to assist in securing and distributing aid.
Recently, Hamas
detained six Authority representatives, two of whom were reportedly killed
when Hamas fighters opened fire.
The officials were escorting
aid convoys organised by the Authority in cooperation with the Egyptian Red
Cresent that Hamas sought to prevent from traveling in the Strip. Hamas
charged the officials were undercover security operatives seeking to sow chaos
and division in Gaza.
“Two interesting conclusions emerge from this affair: Hamas
will use all means available to thwart alternatives to its civil control of the
Strip, and the Palestinian Authority is trying to stir the pot behind the
scenes, even at the cost of Hamas harming the (Authority’s) own people,” said
Israeli journalist Amos Harel.
Gaza
devastation. Credit: AP
Mr. Netanyahu and Israel are also tying themselves up in
knots when one compares the wanton death and destruction in Gaza that Israel
claims was unavoidable in its effort to take out Hamas with the precision of
targetted Israeli strikes against Iranian and Palestinian officials in
residential neighborhoods in Lebanon and Syria.
Praising “the
remarkable precision of Israeli attacks on Iranians and (Lebanese) Hezbollah
operatives in Syria.” Middle East scholar Andrew J. Tabler calculated that
Israel launched 50 air strikes on targets in Syria in the last six months, killing
50 Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah, and Hamas operatives, and 75
Syrians.
It is unclear how many innocent civilians were among the Syrian casualties, but even if all were civilians, that would be a kill ratio of 1.5 Syrians for every operative targeted by Israel.
Israel
attacks Iranian consulate in Damascus. Credit: AP/ Omar Sanadiki
The New York Times suggested that the operatives were part
of a network
smuggling arms into the West Bank. Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic intelligence
service, said days before the attack that it had discovered
an arms cache smuggled into the West Bank.
An Israeli
drone strike the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh kills Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri.
Credit: Mohamed Azakir/Reuters
Israel was equally precise in its killing in January in a
residential Beirut neighborhood of senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri. All
seven people killed by a drone targeting their third-floor office in what
appeared to be a four-story building were Hamas operatives.
In Gaza, assuming that 13,000 Palestinian
fighters, the number of fighters Israel says it has killed, are included in
the Gaza health ministry death count of more than 33,000, the kill ratio would
be 1.5 too.
However, the casualty ratio is far higher if one takes into
account the more than 70,000 wounded and maimed Palestinians, which, according
to Israel’s estimate, would include less than 17,000 fighters based on its
estimate that Hamas
had 30,000 fighters under arms at the outset of the Gaza war.
Those casualty figures are stark even if one allows for
urban fighting and the added complication of Hamas’ underground tunnel system.
The contrast has much to do with geopolitical and military
restraints Israel accepts in Beirut and Damascus in terms of ensuring that
conflicts do not spin out of control and an Israeli
military culture in which the number of people killed in Gaza becomes a
goal in and of itself rather than a last resort in the conquest of territory or
self-defence.
“The rules that I know are that if one of your enemies has
his hands up, you don’t
shoot at him, only in a life-threatening situation. So, our interest was
all along the fighting in Gaza…that if terrorists surrender, we shot
them?... When we talk about
‘eliminating’ and ‘killing,’ those are the people of Messianic Judaism and the
Jewish superiority; they want a territory clean of Arabs,” said former defense
minister and chief of staff Moshe Ya’alon, a leader of the protests demanding
Mr. Netanyahu’s resignation.
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.
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