Qatar’s Gaza war mediation may be a double-edged sword.
By James M. Dorsey
The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
the support of its readers. If you believe that the column and podcast add
value to your understanding and that of the broader public, please consider
becoming a paid subscriber by clicking on the subscription button at http://www.jamesmdorsey.substack.com and choosing one of the
subscription options. Thank you.
To watch a video version of
this story on YouTube please click here. An audio podcast is available
on Soundcloud.
Qatari mediation in the Gaza
war threatens to become a double-edged sword.
Norman Goldstein, uncle of Hersh
Goldberg-Polin, whom Hamas is holding hostage in Gaza, addresses about 50
people in front of the Qatari embassy in Washington, D.C. on Feb. 2, 2024.
Photo: Andrew Bernard
Ron Halber, executive director
of the Jewish Community Relations Council of Greater Washington, told the
Washington gathering that the demonstrations were meant “to thank the Qataris
and at the same time to press them to push Hamas. Those two things are not in
conflict: You’ve done a good job, you really need to do more of a good job.”
Earlier, Israeli protesters rallied
at Qatar’s Washington embassy, striking a far more strident tone. Their message
was “Qatar is Hamas.”
The Israeli nationals held the
Gulf state responsible for Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel in which more than
1,100 people, mostly civilians, were killed and some 240 were taken hostage.
“We are here today to call out
Qatar for what it really is: a terror supporting state seeking to destabilize
the Middle East region. We will not allow Qatar to wash its hands (of) its
responsibility (for) what happened on October 7,” said Nimrode Pantz, a lawyer and protest organiser.
Another speaker vowed that the
protesters would “hunt (Qatari diplomats) in every place you will be until we
see (the hostages) back.”
In November, Qatar negotiated
a week-long truce during which Hamas exchanged more than 100 hostages,
kidnapped during the October 7 attack.
Hamas still holds 136 hostages
and bodies of captives killed in the fighting in Gaza.
Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed
Abdulrahman al-Thani, together with the intelligence chiefs of the United
States, Israel, and Egypt have drafted a plan based on proposals by Hamas and
Israel, involving a pro-longed ceasefire and swap of all hostages and bodies
for an unspecified number of Palestinians in Israeli prisons.
Qatari foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed
bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. Photo: Vahid Salemi/AP
The main obstacle to an
agreement is that Hamas insists on a permanent ceasefire that would end the war
while Israel maintains that ending the war is non-negotiable.
The parties also have yet to
agree on the staggered ratio of Palestinians to be released for each Hamas-held
hostage and the identity of the Palestinians to be freed.
Considering Hamas' main
bargaining chip is its hostages, the group might insist on keeping a few
hostages to make sure Israel abides by an agreement – a demand Israel is
certain to reject.
Alternatively, a Hamas official
suggested that the group may seek guarantees from the United States, Qatar, and Egypt that the ceasefire amounts to an end to the war.
“Our aim is to finish this as
soon as possible…to bring the hostages back, but to put a closure for the
war as well,” Mr. Al-Thani told National
Public Radio.
It’s going to take fancy
language to bridge the gap.
The trick will be a formula
that allows both parties to claim they have achieved their irreconcilable goals.
One formula may be a lengthy
ceasefire, potentially described as transitional rather than permanent. This
would allow Israel to maintain that the war will continue while Hamas could
claim the contrary.
Israeli Prime Minister
Binyamin Netanyahu has not made things easier by adopting a hardline in recent
days. He has not only rejected ending the war, but also the release of
“thousands of terrorists” and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza any
time soon.
Mr. Netanyahu may sing a
different tone this weekend in talks with US Secretary of State Antony J.
Blinken, on his sixth visit to Israel since the war began, but any hostage swap
agreement will likely entail provisions that could prompt his far-right
coalition partners to withdraw from the government.
Mr. Netanyahu may hope that
Hamas will rescue him by rejecting anything less than an end to the war and the
release of thousands of Palestinians in Israeli prison in exchange for the
hostages.
The State Department
and British Foreign Secretary David Cameron, in an apparent attempt to pressure Mr. Netanyahu to
soften his rejection of the creation of an independent Palestinian state and
approach to the hostage negotiations, are exploring possibilities of
recognising Palestine as a state.
Britain's
former prime minister and appointed Foreign Secretary David Cameron. Photo: REUTERS/
Suzanne Plunkett
So far, the US and Britain
have recognised President Mahmoud Abbas’ West Bank-based Palestine Authority as
the entity governing the West Bank and official Palestinian interlocutor under
the 1993 Oslo accords between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organisation
(PLO).
This week’s US sanctioning of four vigilante Israeli West Bank
settlers sent a similar message.
Even though small in number,
the demonstrations in the US and Canada echo Mr. Netanyahu’s recent criticism of
Qatar.
"You don't hear me thanking Qatar... It is essentially no different from the UN or Red
Cross, and in a certain sense is even more problematic – I have no illusions
about them… They have leverage over (Hamas). Why do they have leverage? Because
they finance them,” Mr. Netanyahu told hostage families earlier this month,
ignoring that Qatari funding of Hamas in
Gaza was at his behest.
“Qatar hosts the heads of
Hamas; it also funds Hamas; it has leverage on Hamas…They placed themselves as
mediators – so start proving it and bring back our hostages,” Mr. Netanyahu said
in a subsequent news conference.
This week,
the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), founded by Yigal Carmon, a
former advisor to Israel’s West Bank and Gaza occupation authority and Prime
Ministers Yitzhak Shamir and Yitzhak Rabin, sought to bolster Mr. Netanyahu’s
argument. MEMRI reported that Qatar regularly trained Hamas’ police
force.
In response, Qatar’s Foreign
Ministry accused Mr. Netanyahu of “undermining the mediation
process for reasons that appear to
serve his political career instead of prioritizing saving the lives of
innocents, including Israeli hostages.”
Echoing Mr. Netanyahu’s criticism and American Jewish leaders'
frustration, Democrats and Republicans in the US Congress have asked the Biden
administration to pressure Qatar. The lawmakers
also called for Hamas’ expulsion from Qatar.
The United States agreed with
Qatar in October to revisit the Gulf state’s
relationship with Hamas once
all hostages have been released.
Officials of both countries
left open whether the review would lead to the expulsion of Hamas
representatives or to restrictions on their ability to operate from the Gulf
state.
What the review will entail is
likely to depend on whether and in what state Hamas survives the Gaza war. A
Hamas survival could mean that the United States, and for that matter Israel,
will have a continued need for a backchannel.
Nevertheless, the criticism
threatens to put a dent in Qatari relations with the American Jewish community,
a pillar of its largely successful soft power strategy in the United States.
Hamas has maintained a
presence in Qatar since 2012 at the request of the United States and with Israel’s acquiescence.
Qatar and the administration
have pushed back at the criticism.
"I've been hearing this a
lot about the leverage and the pressure. Qatar needs to be understood clearly
in this context. Our role as a mediator is to try to bring the parties to
bridge the gaps between them," Mr. Al Thani said in an on-stage interview
at the Atlantic Council, a Washington thinktank.
"Beyond this leverage, we don't see that Qatar is a superpower that can impose
something on this party or another
party to bring them to that place. Basically, were using our good offices to
connect, to bridge gaps, to put solutions and come up with some
alternatives," he added.
Roger Carstens, US President
Joe Biden's top hostage envoy, told the Hostages' Families Forum and the
American Jewish Committee that Qatar is "doing everything we're asking.”
Roger Carstens, special presidential envoy
for hostage affairs, at the State Department in February. Photo: Eric Kayne for
Yahoo News
Members of the Forum met last
week with Mr. Al-Thani to thank him for his efforts.
Even so, Emily Moatti, a
member of the Forum’s diplomatic team and a former Israeli parliament member,
suggested the families were holding their nose while working with Qatar.
The Forum “thinks that the
only way hostages will be released is through negotiations, and as unfortunate
as it may be – we would prefer Egypt – Qatar is totally a partner in this,” Ms.
Moatti said.
In a twist of irony, a Qatar-funded consultant, Jay Footlik, helped the
families get meetings with Mr.
Al-Thani and other Qatari officials and coached them on how to approach those
encounters. Qatar pays Mr. Footlik’s, consultancy, ThirdCircle Inc., US$40,000
a month.
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct
Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M.
Dorsey.
Comments
Post a Comment