Trump puts Israelis and Palestinians on a knife’s edge

 

By James M. Dorsey

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Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may welcome two Middle East policy goals articulated by US President-elect Donald J. Trump in response to the Gaza ceasefire but may not like what it will take to achieve them.

The same is true for the Palestinians, including the West Bank-based, internationally recognised Palestine Authority and Hamas.

The ceasefire demonstrated to Mr. Netanyahu that Mr. Trump can twist his arm when the two men’s interests diverge.

Mr. Trump wanted a ceasefire before his January 20 inauguration, no matter what, forcing Mr. Netanyahu to accept terms he had rejected since outgoing President Joe Biden first put them forward in May of last year.

Taking credit for the Gaza breakthrough not without reason, Mr. Trump said he would capitalise  on the “epic” ceasefire to “continue promoting PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH throughout the region, as we build upon the momentum of this ceasefire to further expand the Historic Abraham Accords.”

Mr. Trump presided over the 2020 accords which involved the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. Messrs. Trump, Biden, and Netanyahu have long wanted Saudi Arabia to follow suit.

US and Israeli officials believe a deal was in the cards before Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel in which some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed. The attack sparked the Gaza war.

Speaking this week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States would have rewarded the kingdom for recognising Israel by being granted the status of a US treaty ally and the signing of agreements on defense cooperation, US support for Saudi Arabia’s civil nuclear programme, and the boosting of bilateral trade and investment.

The deal is still on the table. Mr. Netanyahu’s problem is that Israel’s Gaza war conduct has significantly raised the price Israel would have to pay in terms of advancing Palestinian national rights.

Before October 7, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman appeared confident that Saudi and Muslim public opinion would allow him to get away with a recognition of Israel with only a fig-leaf reference to the Palestinians.

 

Two weeks before the October 7 attack, Mr. Bin Salman said, “Every day we get closer” to establishing diplomatic relations.

The crown prince added that Saudi Arabia had “a good negotiations strategy till now” to “reach a place that will ease the life of the Palestinians and get Israel as a player in the Middle East.” The crown prince made no mention of a Palestinian state.

Mr. Bin Salman’s strategy needed upgrading; vague references to the Palestinians were insufficient.

Saudi Arabia has been increasingly vocal during the war that it will settle for nothing less than an independent Palestinian state. Escalating the kingdom’s rhetoric, Mr. Bin Salman accused Israel in November for the first time of committing genocide in Gaza.

Mr. Trump’s pursuit of the Gaza ceasefire, disregarding what Mr. Netanyahu wanted, sends a loud and clear message to the prime minister: as president, Mr. Trump will go some way in attempting to force Israel to pay the Palestinian price for formal relations with Saudi Arabia rather than support Israeli annexation of part, if not all, of the occupied West Bank.

As with Saudi Arabia, Mr. Netanyahu will likely welcome Mr. Trump’s second Middle East policy objective, which coincides with one of the prime minister’s Gaza war goals.

Binyamin Netanyahu and Steve Witkoff. Credit: Prime Minister’s Office

“With this (ceasefire) deal in place, my National Security team, through the efforts of Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, will continue to work closely with Israel and our Allies to make sure Gaza NEVER again becomes a terrorist safe haven,” Mr. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Mr. Netanyahu may be less enamoured with what that means in practice, notably if it entails renewed Palestine Authority control of Gaza. What it means will be evident in yet-to-be-negotiated post-war Gazan governance arrangements.

Mr. Netanyahu has consistently rejected the Authority’s return to Gaza after Hamas effectively ousted Al Fatah, the Authority’s political backbone, from the Strip in a bloody conflict in 2007.

For its part, Hamas will not agree to be written out of the equation, particularly after Mr. Netanyahu agreed to ceasefire terms that ensure the group will remain a player, even if its popularity has all but vanished.

Speaking in Oslo this week, Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa rejected a proposal discussed by the United States, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel for an international post-war administration in Gaza.

“It is important to stress that it won't be acceptable for any other entity to govern the Gaza Strip but the legitimate Palestinian leadership and the government of the state of Palestine," Mr. Mohammed said.

Mr. Mohmmed was responding to Mr. Blinken’s disclosure that “for many months, we have been working with our partners to develop a detailed post-conflict plan…that would provide for Gaza’s governance, security, and reconstruction.”

Under the plan that the US and others would present to the United Nations Security Council, the Palestine Authority would “invite international partners to help establish and run an interim administration with responsibility for key civil sectors in Gaza, like banking, water, energy, health, civil coordination with Israel,” Mr. Blinken said.

A senior United Nations official would oversee the interim administration, which would include Gazans and Palestine Authority representatives.

Mr. Blinken suggested that "partner nations and vetted Palestinian security personnel" would contribute to an interim security mission responsible for border security.

Donald J. Trump’s pro-Israel line-up. Credit: The Forward

Mr. Trump’s articulation of his immediate post-Gaza war goals has likely put Mr. Netanyahu and the Palestinians on a knife’s edge. That may be in and of itself a good thing.

However, with an administration populated by pro-Israel hardliners, that does not necessarily mean that Mr. Trump’s pursuit of his goals will be equitable.

At the bottom line, Mr. Trump instinctively leans toward Israel, even if he will twist Mr. Netanyahu’s arm when it suits his purpose.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.