Putting Humpty Dumpty together in Syria

 

By James M Dorsey

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In Syria, putting Humpty Dumpty together again is no mean task.

Israel’s demolition of the ill-equipped Syrian military and the recent occupation of additional Syrian territory beyond the Golan Heights it conquered in the 1967 Middle East war is just one obstacle.

So is a daunting list of challenges that, if unresolved, threaten the new Syrian rulers’ ability to rebuild an economy ravaged by 14 years of civil war and, potentially, the country’s territorial integrity.

The challenges include Turkey’s military presence in northern Syria, fighting between a pro-Turkish militia and Syrian Kurds, differences over whether Syria should be a centralised state or a federation, the failure of large numbers of Al-Assad conscripts to turn in their weapons despite being promised amnesty, and concerns about the place of religious minorities in the future Syria.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group that led the toppling of Mr. Al-Assad, insists it will build an inclusive Syria, has sought to prevent retaliation against former Al-Assad government officials, and promised judicial due process in holding those accused of war crimes accountable.

The challenges are evident on the streets of Homs, Latakia, and Tartous, where law enforcement, primarily populated by units of Hayat Tahrir, hunt for former regime officials, seek to prevent the emergence of an armed resistance, possibly backed by Iran, and collect arms of former conscripts.

Only an estimated 50,000 former personnel of Mr. Al-Assad’s 150,000-strong, primarily Alawite military, have reportedly turned in their weapons. Even so, there were no reports of serious clashes in Hayat Tahrir’s security sweep.

Many Alawites, adherents of a Shiite Muslim sect to which Mr. Al-Assad belongs, were happy to see an end to the former president’s rule but are uncertain about their place in the new Syria. The raids have fueled anxiety.

Credit: Syria in transition

The challenges are also evident in suspicions of the new government’s vision of a four-year transitory run-up to elections and the drafting of a new constitution in which Hayat Tahrir leader Ahmed al-Sharaa would remain Syria’s leader.

Mr. Al-Sharaa justified the four years, saying the civil war’s displacement of 13 million people, half of which fled Syria, made it necessary to conduct census in advance of elections.

Many in Syria want to see elections in the next two years. A litmus test of Mr. Al-Sharara's intentions will be the representation of minorities in the transition government that he said would replace the post-Al-Assad Hayat Tahrir caretaker government in March.

Differing visions of the transition and Syria’s future have complicated Hayat Tahrir’s plans to hold a national dialogue this month in which all segments of society would participate to chart the country’s transition and future course.

Mr. Al-Sharaa sparked opposition by seemingly insisting leaders of political and rebel groups could participate as individuals, not as representatives of their organisations.

Similarly, Hadi al-Bahra, the head of an Istanbul-based opposition alliance that enjoyed international recognition during the civil war but has served its purpose with Mr. Al-Assad’s downfall, said the grouping had not been invited to the dialogue.

The different visions of Syria's future also colour the new rulers' effort to reconstitute the military from a myriad of rebel groups that agreed last month to lay down their arms and become part of a force capable of ensuring domestic security. The rebels would be joined by some Al-Assad-era conscripts.

Druze leader Hekmat al-Hijri

Like Syrian Kurds, Hekmat al-Hijri, the spiritual leader of the Druze, a sect considered heretics by mainstream Islam, vowed that the group would not surrender its arms until the nature of the future state was decided and a constitution had been drafted that guaranteed Druze rights.

In apparent support for a federated Syria where minorities would enjoy a degree of autonomy, Mr. Al-Hijri said a “decentralised system is most appropriate for Syria.”

Even so, Mr. Al-Hijri recently met with the Kurdish National Council, a one-time popular Syrian Kurdish group that has lost ground to the Democratic Union Party (PYD).

Turkey accuses the party and the associated US-backed Kurdish militia, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of being extensions of the outlawed Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) that has waged a four-decade-long low-intensity war in southeastern Turkey for Kurdish rights.

Turkey rejects Syrian Kurdish demands for autonomy. Unconfirmed media reports suggested Turkey and Syria were discussing defense arrangements that would include Turkey operating two military bases in Syria.

Mr. Al-Sharaa, seemingly concerned that external powers would use a federated Syria as a geopolitical playground by playing one group against another, has insisted on a centralized state.

Mouzlam Abdi, the military leader of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) speaks with France 24

The Syrian leader met earlier this week for the first time with the SDF. The SDF were the US military’s shock troops in the fight against the Islamic State.

The SDF, unlike the Syrian National Army (SNA), a misnomer for the Turkish-supported militia with which the Kurds are locked into battle, was not included in the rebel disarmament talks.

The SDF is reluctant to join the other rebel groups without an agreement on the status of Syrian Kurds and guarantees, if the group agrees to disarm and integrate into the Syrian military, that SNA elements will not harass their troops.

The SNA is expected to be influential alongside Hayat Tahrir in the reconstituted Syrian military.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot 

On a visit to Damascus on Friday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot insisted that "a political solution must be reached with France's allies, the Kurds, so that they are fully integrated into this political process that is beginning today."

Mr. Barrot, together with his German counterpart, Annalena Baerbock, advised Mr. Al-Sharaa that diplomatic recognition of Syria’s new government depended on a resolution of the Kurdish issue, the destruction of the Al-Assad regime’s chemical weapons stockpiles, and a clear pathway towards an inclusive political transition to democracy.

In negotiations with Hayat Tahrir, the SDF may well take its cue from developments in Turkey, where two Turkish lawmakers said imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan had indicated that he may call on the group to lay down its arms.

The pro-Kurdish lawmakers were allowed to visit Mr. Ocalan, in prison since 1999, for the first time in almost a decade.

Meanwhile, if there is one thing that Kurds, Druze, and Alawites share, it’s a deep-seated distrust of Sunni Muslim militancy, including Hayat Tahrir.

Burdened with a jihadist history that it has sought to shed over the past decade, Hayat Tahrir sparked outrage this week with the introduction of changes to primary and secondary school curricula. Critics charged the changes Islamicised the curricula.

Syrian Education Minister Nazir al-Qadr. Credit: BBC

Many of the education ministry’s changes removed references to Mr. Al-Assad’s regime, including photographs and references to the military and national anthem.

However, the materials removed also included the word ‘deities,’ references to pre-Islamic deities, and Zeinobia, a pre-Islamic queen of ancient Palmyra. In a bow to Islamic history and Turkey, a long-time supporter of Hayat Tahrir, the changes rolled back criticism of the Ottoman Empire.

The ministry also deleted chapters about the origin and evolution of life, the evolution of the brain, and Chinese philosophy.

Insisting that the old schoolbooks would remain until a committee could audit them, Education Minister Nazir al-Qadr conceded that “incorrect” interpretations of Quranic verses were removed.

That did little to convince critics that the textbook changes were not pointers in the direction of where Hayat Tahrir was taking Syria.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.