Are Trump and Netanyahu approaching crunch time?

 

By James M. Dorsey

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US President Donald Trump is turning the screws on Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu as policy towards Israel and the Middle East emerges as a main faultline in the president’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) support base.

In recent days, Mr. Trump has pressured Mr. Netanyahu to abide by the Gaza ceasefire, facilitate the surrender of trapped Hamas fighters, refrain from provocative attacks in Syria, and engage in negotiations with Lebanon.

Throwing Mr. Netanyahu a bone, Mr. Trump has sought to mollify him by pushing Israeli President Isaac Herzog to pardon the prime minister, who is on trial in three cases in which he is charged with corruption and/or breach of trust.

Mr. Trump’s pressure on Mr. Netanyahu, exerted in a phone conversation with the prime minister on Monday, has produced initial results.

Mr. Netanyahu has agreed to open the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza partially, allow Israeli officials to participate in US-led talks with Lebanon, suggested that a security agreement with Syria was possible, and keep the door open to an Israeli withdrawal from Syrian territory that Israel has occupied since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad a year ago.

How far Mr. Trump is willing to go in ensuring that Israel reduces tension with Syria and Lebanon and cooperates constructively in the implementation of his Gaza ceasefire proposal by helping pave the way for an international stabilisation force to police the truce will likely be evident when the president meets Mr. Netanyahu in the White House in late December.

It will be Mr. Netanyahu’s fifth visit to Washington since Mr. Trump returned to the Oval Office in January. No other foreign leader has met with Mr. Trump that often, suggesting that the president may mean business.

One card Mr. Trump could play is reviving his October suggestion that he may push Mr. Netanyahu to release Marwan Barghouti, widely viewed as the most popular Palestinian politician, a potential future president, and a proponent of a two-state resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Marwan Barghouti

Mr. Barghouti is serving five life sentences plus 40 years in an Israeli prison after being convicted in 2004 of planning attacks in which five civilians were killed. While behind bars, Mr. Barghouti has sought to bridge differences between Hamas and Al-Fatah, the backbone of the Palestine Authority, , the West Bank-based, widely discredited, legally recognised representative of the Palestinians.

The timing of Mr. Trump’s efforts to put Mr. Netanyahu on a leash is as much driven by developments on the ground in the Middle East as by sharp differences within Mr. Trump’s Make America Great Again base over Israel.

Influencer and former white nationalist Richard Hanania argues that Israel is the last friction point in a far-right takeover of much of conservative America.

He noted that the Make America Great Again crowd had adopted four of the far right’s key principles, including reducing immigration to preserve white dominance, a perception of relations between whites and non-whites and Christians and non-Christians as a zero-sum game, the ranking of Americans according to race, religion, and how far back they can trace their ancestors’ presence in the country, and identity politics.

Mr. Hanania suggests that attitudes towards Israel and Jews are the far right’s last frontier.

“Nearly every ambitious Republican politician and right-wing influencer thinks whites are oppressed and immigration should be significantly reduced, if not ended, and that it is wrong to ever denounce anyone on their side for racism or sexism. But the Jews remain the final boss of Republican establishment taboos,” Mr. Hanania said.

However, “with young Republicans more likely to be anti-Israel and adopt anti-Semitic attitudes, and major right-wing influencers sounding more and more like (Nick)Fuentes…there is more pushback here from GOP (Republican) donors, so the ultimate Groyper victory is taking longer. But the trends are unmistakable,” Mr. Hanania added.

Mr. Hanania was referring to the white nationalist far right by its moniker, Pepe the Frog, an Internet meme. Mr. Fuentes is a controversial 28-year-old white supremacist anti-Semite, widely viewed as a Groyper leader.

In the latest indication of the shift in attitudes of young Republicans, a New York City-based Republican club said it would honour Markus Frohnmaier, a leader of Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, at its annual gala, weeks after the club’s statewide counterpart was disbanded over a group chat in which members praised Adolf Hitler.

Meanwhile, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is attempting to take advantage of the growing far-right turn against Israel by embracing reforms demanded by the United States, Europe, and Arab states of the Palestine Authority.

Mr. Abbas hopes that, like Mr. Netanyahu, whose response to Mr. Trump essentially amounts to motion without movement, his more or less performative reforms will position the Authority as a key player in the second phase of Mr. Trump’s Gaza ceasefire proposal.

This week, Palestinian Foreign Minister Varsen Aghabekian reiterated support for the international stabilisation force in Gaza as envisioned in Mr. Trump’s proposal and mandated by a United Nations Security Council resolution.

“These forces would help restore security, protect humanitarian operations, monitor the ceasefire, and support Palestinian institutions. They would support — not replace — the Palestinian government,” Ms. Aghabekian said.

She spoke as the Saudi ambassador to Jordan and Palestine, Mansour bin Khalid bin Farhan Al Saud, presented Palestinian Acting Finance Minister Istifan Salameh with a US$90 million check to cover public sector salaries.

Potential Arab contributors to the stabilisation force want to be invited by the Authority as part of ensuring that the Trump proposal constitutes the launching pad for the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.

Like with Hamas, Mr. Netanyahu has ruled out any role for the Authority because that would put Palestinian national rights and the goal of a two-state resolution of the Israel-Palestine conflict at the centre of moves to implement the second phase of the Trump Gaza proposal.

Hamas has rejected the formula and demanded safe passage for the fighters to areas of Gaza controlled by the group.

Some Israeli sources believe Mr. Netanyahu’s agreement to open the Rafah crossing for Palestinians leaving Gaza was in part to provide a pathway for the departure of the fighters, provided they agreed not only to disarm but also to go into exile.

“Why are you killing Hamas members trapped in the tunnels instead of allowing them to leave and surrender?" Mr. Trump asked Mr. Netanyahu in Monday’s telephone conversation.

This month’s Oval Office meeting could be crunch time if Mr. Trump continues to pressure Mr. Netanyahu.

To be sure, one predicts Mr. Trump’s next steps at one’s peril.

Even so, summoning the prime minister for a fifth White House discussion, shifting attitudes in the president's support base, and pressure from his increasingly important Saudi and other Gulf allies suggest that Messrs. Trump and Netanyahu's forthcoming meeting could mark a milestone.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Contributing Editor to WhoWhatWhy, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.