Syria may be tired of war, but war may not be tired of Syria
Credit: Firstpost
By James M. Dorsey
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Syrian rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, aka Abu Mohammed
al-Jolani, appears to be a man who picks his battles.
Speaking at a Damascus mosque, Mr. Al-Jolani, a one-time
jihadist with a history as an Al Qaeda and the Islamic State operative and a
$10 million US bounty on his head, suggested Syrians were exhausted, focused on
reconstructing their war-ravaged country, and unprepared for another war.
“The country is moving towards development and
reconstruction. It’s going towards stability. People are
exhausted from war. So, the country isn’t ready for another one, and it’s not going to get into another one,” Mr.
Al-Jolani said.
Days later, Syrian state media quoted Mr. Al-Jolani as
saying, "We are not
in the process of engaging in a conflict with Israel,” adding that “There
are no excuses for any foreign intervention in Syria now that the Iranians have
left."
Mr. Al-Jolani’s problem is that Syria may be tired of war after 14 years of fighting, but war may not be tired of Syria.
The stakes are high for Mr. Al-Jolani, his rebel group,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and Syria.
Mr. Al-Jolani needs to be seen as building an inclusive
Syria that has ruptured the country’s ties to militancy, whether it’s Mr.
Al-Assad’s alliance with Iran and the Islamic Republic’s non-state partners,
Sunni Muslim radicalism, or Hayat Tahrir’s jihadist past.
The pitfalls are multiple.
The pitfalls include rivalries among a kaleidoscope of rebel
groups, some of which are supported by external powers, including Turkey, the
United States, Israel, Jordan, and Russia; Turkey’s occupation of Syrian
territory in the north of the country; the status of the Kurds in regions close
to the Turkish border; and potential sectarian violence because of revenge killings.
Foreign ministers of eight Arab countries, Turkey and the
United States alongside the European Union’s foreign policy chief and the
United Nations special envoy for Syria called this weekend for a
peaceful and inclusive political transition in Syria that leads towards
elections and a new constitution.
In a separate statement, the Arab ministers also condemned “Israel’s
incursion into the buffer zone with Syria”, its air strikes in Syria,
and demanded “the withdrawal of Israeli forces” from Syrian territory,
including the Golan Heights conquered by Israel during the 1967 Middle East
war.
Turkish Defense Minister Yaser Guler sought to preempt
calls for a withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria by offering to
discuss the issue "when necessary conditions arise.”
Credit:
Bringing Assad to Justice
Syrian exiles suggested that calls for revenge were fuelled
by the fact that most of Mr. Al-Assad’s senior associates and security
operatives vanished as the opening of the former president’s prisons lay bare the horrors of his rule.
Mr. Al-Assad’s brother, Maher, the commander of the military's
elite 4th Armoured Division, was reportedly one of the few to follow
him to Russia after flying a helicopter to Iraq. Other senior officials, including
security chief Ali Mamlouk, reportedly went into hiding in Beirut
Mr. Al-Assad’s associates and henchmen “just disappeared…
They still have their weapons. They still have a considerable amount of
financial resources… The
former regime is invisible, but it’s not gone,” warned Syrian activist
Labib al-Nahhas.
Meanwhile, Syria’s new rulers, in a bid to reassure Israel
and garner Western favour, ordered
Hamas operatives in Syria and other militant Palestinian groups to limit
themselves to political activities and not launch attacks on Israel from
Syrian territory.
The United States, backed by Israel, is likely to demand
that Syria expel the Palestinians as well as other Iran-aligned militants.
Credit: MNA
The Hayat Tahrir gesture came as Israel attacked Syrian
military infrastructure in what one security official described as “one of the largest
attack operations in the history of the Air Force.”
Israel said it had destroyed
80 per cent of its Syrian counterpart in hundreds of sorties in the past
week.
On Friday, explosions
of Israeli ordinance pockmarked mass celebrations of Mr. Al-Assad’s fall in
the streets of Damascus and other Syrian cities.
Middle East analyst Ehud Yaari noted that Israel had long supported
commanders of some of the 25 rebel groups in
southern Syria.
“Some of those commanders regularly met Israeli officers in
(the Israel city of) Tiberias and other places. Many villages in this region
have benefited…from Israel’s Good Neighborhood operation, which provided
humanitarian aid on a large scale, and many (fighters) were treated in a field
hospital established especially for them on the Israeli side of the border,”
Mr. Yaari said.
Commanders who fought Mr. Al-Jolani, Hayat Tahrir, and the
group’s jihadist predecessor, Jabhat al-Nusra, during the civil war and last
week participated in the rebel takeover of Damascus, including those backed by
Israel, met in
recent days with their former nemesis to discuss cooperation.
Similarly, Mr. Al-Jolani warmly welcomed Turkish
intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin during his visit to Damascus this week. A
video posted on social media suggested the
rebel leader personally drove his Turkish visitor around the city.
Turkey’s long-standing relations with Hayat Tahrir will
likely complicate Mr. Al-Jolani’s inevitable efforts to restore sovereignty
over all Syrian territory.
Yet, his effort to secure international support hinges in
part on managing his relations with Turkey as well as Israel.
“Were the incoming government to challenge Israel’s
aggression, amidst the latter’s heightened security concerns, the likely result
would be an immediate decline in the HTS’ political and military viability,”
said international relations scholar Nath Aldalala’a in an RSIS Commentary.
To rub it in, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu
insisted that the Golan Heights would remain
Israeli “for eternity.”
US President-elect Donald J. Trump recognised Israel’s 1981
annexation of the mountainous region during his first term in office.
That could put Mr. Al-Jolani at odds with Mr. Trump as the
Syrian leader seeks to restore government control over all of Syria.
Mr. Al-Jolani’s potential predicament creates opportunities
for Iran as well as Russia, Mr. Al-Assad’s other main backer. Iran and Russia
may bet on potential strife in Syria to salvage what can be salvaged, including
Russia’s military bases in Syria.
“Given
Iran’s proven ability to exploit regional chaos, Syria’s transition could
present new opportunities for influence… The emerging power vacuum and
tensions between various factions - particularly Kurdish-Turkish animosity -
might create openings for a different kind of Iranian influence,” said Iran
nuclear policy scholar Nicole Grajewski.
Middle East security scholar Michael Knights noted that the
Al-Assad regime’s fall “does not mean its former patron Iran will simply give
up on using Syria as a corridor for reconstituting Hezbollah next door in
Lebanon. Quite the opposite:
Iranian arms smuggling has historically thrived in collapsed or weak state
environments.”
Similarly, a Russian diplomat suggested that “a lot can happen in
Syria. The events there may just be the beginning. There is a
colorful coalition with different factions. Some of these groups maintain close
ties with Moscow…. So, there is still a field of play for Russia.”
Credit:
United 24
So far, Mr. Al-Jolani has been conspicuously quiet about the
future of Russia’s military bases.
Instead, Hayat Tahrir responded to a Russian bombing of
rebel positions before Mr. Al-Assad’s fall by calling on Moscow to side with
the Syrian people.
“We affirm that the Syrian people seek to build positive
relations based on mutual respect and common interests with all countries of
the world, including
Russia, which we consider a potential partner in building a bright future
for a free Syria,” Hayat Tahrir said.
Mr. Al-Jolani said the rebels had feared resistance from Mr.
Al-Assad’s military and his supporters, Iran and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed
Lebanese Shiite Muslim militia. “Their removal is the solution for Syria. The
current situation won’t allow for a return to panic,” Mr. Al-Jolani said.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander-in-chief General
Hossein Salami. Credit: Ahram Online
In response, General Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief
of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), conceded that “we have to
live with the realities of Syria; we look at them and act based on them.
Strategies must change according to the circumstances; we cannot solve numerous
global and regional issues with stagnation and employing the same tactic.”
At the same time, the IRGC accused the United States and
Israel of exploiting “instability in Syria” and warned that it would “not be
passive in confronting any plan or scheme that seeks to disrupt the resistance
and weaken the power and authority of the countries in the region.”
The IRGC was referring to what remains of the Axis of
Resistance, an alliance of Iran-backed militant non-state actors, after the
fall of Mr. Al-Assad and Israel’s weakening of Hezbollah in the recent Lebanon
war.
Earlier, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei asserted that the
United States and Israel had planned Mr. Al-Assad’s overthrow. Mr. Khamenei
hinted at Turkey having also played a role in the alleged conspiracy.
The loss of Syria and Hezbollah has crippled Iran’s forward
defense strategy that centered on Mr. Al-Assad and the Lebanese militia serving
as deterrents by virtue of their presence on Israel’s borders. It forces Iran
to rethink its defense strategy and regional policies.
As a result, it’s hardly surprising that Hezbollah described
Mr. Al-Assad’s overthrow as a “major,
dangerous and new transformation.”
The Hezbollah statement contrasted starkly with the congratulations
heaped on Hayat Tahrir by Sunni Muslim Islamist groups.
Military analyst Elijah J. Magnier said Israel’s assault on
Syrian military facilities involved taking out Hezbollah weapon
stockpiles moved to Syria in the early days of the 14-month-old Gaza war to
shield them from Israeli attack in Lebanon.
Credit: Al
Jazeera
Mr. Magnier said Mr. Al-Assad had facilitated Hezbollah’s
weakening by preventing the group from firing its Syria-based heavy weaponry
toward Israel in the vain hope that the gesture would position him as a bulwark
against Islamists and jihadists.
Mr. Al-Assad used restrictions to convince Arab states and
the international community that “I am on the side (of the conflict); I am not
interfering.” Mr. Magnier said.
Mr. Al-Assad’s ploy did not pay off.
Even so, to reconstruct Syria, Mr. Al-Jolani needs his
government to garner international recognition and to ensure the United Nations
takes Hayat Tahrir off its designated terrorist list.
This week, the rebel's transition government thanked Qatar,
Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Italy, Jordan, Oman, and Saudi Arabia for resuming
their diplomatic activities in Damascus.. Meanwhile, Turkey reopened its
embassy in the Syrian capital after closing it down 12 years ago.
The diplomatic moves serve Mr. Al-Jolani's most immediate
goal of persuading the United States and the United Nations to lift economic
sanctions and give him the benefit of the doubt.
‘Fifty per cent of government receipts before the civil war
came from oil and gas. Today, Syria has no oil and gas industry, and what small
amount is being produced is under the control of the Americans. The first thing
this government is going to have to do is ask for that back, ask for sanctions
to be lifted,” said Syria scholar Joshua Landis.
The rebels said this week they had taken control
of the small Al-Taym oil field in Deir ez-Zur, which produces 5,000 barrels
per day.
Geir
Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria
Geir Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, said Hayat
Tahrir could be removed from the UN terrorism list if it formed a truly
inclusive transition government. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said US
officials had echoed a similar sentiment in direct contacts with Hayat
Tahrir.
“This means we need orderly, inclusive arrangements,
ensuring the broadest possible representation of Syrian society and parties. If
this is not happening, we risk new conflict in Syria,” Mr. Pedersen said.
“My message is Syria cannot be run like Idlib,” Mr. Pedersen
added, referring to Hayat Tahrir’s governance of its erstwhile stronghold in
northern Syria.
In a statement two days later, Hayat Tahrir said it would hold fighters accountable
for violating orders, including a ban
on demands that women dress ‘modestly’ and the obligation to protect public
and private property, respect public institutions, and treat former Syrian military
personnel properly.
That didn’t stop Mr. Al-Jolani from asking a woman to
cover her hair in his presence in a video that circulated on social media.
In Idlib, Hayat Tahrir respected religious minorities’
rights, establishing a directorate of minority affairs within its technocratic Salvation
Government, but did not grant them representation in the region’s legislature.
“So, while they might not be harassed, their
needs might not be met or at least not as efficiently as those of the
majority Sunni community,” said Islamic militancy scholar Aaron Y. Zelin.
Mohammed al-Bashir, the rebel-appointed interim prime
minister, has yet to publicly name many members of his Cabinet, but minority
representatives already complain that they are not represented.
Sinam
Sherkany Mohamad with President Joe Biden
“What we have seen now is the new temporary government they
have established; it is only from their own people and the HTS. No one from the
minorities, no Kurds, no Syriacs, no Christians. This is not a good sign,” said Kurdish activist Sinam Sherkany Mohamad.
Ms. Mohamad and representatives of other minorities expect
to derive leverage from the fact that Mr. Al-Jolani will be more attentive to
their demands because Syria will be competing for international attention and
resources with Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine, Sudan, and other flashpoints in dire
need.
Ms. Mohamad is the US representative of the Syrian
Democratic Council (SDC) in the United States, the political wing of the
predominantly Kurdish US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern
Syria.
The SDF provided the ground troops in the US-led fight that
deprived the Islamic State of its territorial base in chunks of Syria and Iraq.
The SDF manages detention
camps and prisons holding thousands of men, women, and children affiliated
with the Islamic State.
Balancing Turkey and the Syrian Kurds may prove to be one of
Mr. Al-Jolani’s foremost challenges.
In Aleppo, Hayat Tahrir sought before Mr. Al-Assad’s fall to
reassure the Syrian Defence Forces that the Islamists had no
beef with the Kurds. SDF fighters were allowed to leave Aleppo with their
weapons for Kurdish areas in the north.
That could change if President-elect Trump takes Turkey up
on its offer to take over the management of the detention camps and remains on
the sidelines when Turkey acts on its vow, in the wake of Mr. Al-Assad’s fall,
to “eliminate”
the People's Defense Units (YPG), the Syrian Defence Forces’ backbone.
Turkey views the YPG as the Syrian arm of the outlawed
Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) that has waged a more than four-decade-long
low-intensity insurgency in Turkey in which more than 40,000 people were killed.
Turkey has long demanded that the United States drop its
support for the Syrian Defence Forces, withdraw some 900 US troops from
northern Syria, and task the Turkish military with confronting the Islamic
State.
The Turkish foreign ministry thought to appease the US,
saying after talks in Ankara between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Turkey prioritized preventing “terrorism
from gaining ground (in Syria) and preventing
Islamic State and the PKK from dominating there."
In recent days, Turkey’s proxy in northern Syria, the Syrian
National Army (SNA), forced
the SDF out of two cities in the region, Tal Rifaat and Manbij, and is
targeting the town of Kobani.
In doing so, the Syrian National Army has largely achieved
Turkey’s goal of moving the SDF east of the Euphrates River.
“There will be no ceasefire until every PKK fighter is
completely removed from Syrian territory… Our mission is to eradicate terrorism
on Syrian soil,” vowed Saif Polat, an SNA commander in Manbij, in an Al Jazeera
interview.
In response, the Syrian Defence Forces warned this week that
it would have to halt
its efforts to contain the Islamic State if the SNA attacks continue.
Even so, Turkish author and scholar Mustafa Akyol sees a
silver lining in developments related to the Kurds.
“One thing good has happened in Turkey… Lately, Turkey has
been giving signals of reconciliation with the PKK in Turkey… If the region is
lucky, if Turkey softens its tone inside Turkey vis a vis reconciliation and a
peace process, and if the SDF, the Kurdish forces in Syria, keep giving
conciliatory messages...we
could be on the right path,” Mr. Akyol said.
Dr.
James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological
University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of
the syndicated column and podcast, The
Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.
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