Ceasefire brings Lebanon’s chicken home to roost

 

Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati arrives in Riyadh in November 2024 to attend a summit of Arab and Muslim leaders. Credit: SPA

By James M. Dorsey

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Gulf leaders told Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati what they said to Palestinians when he asked the region’s wealthy energy exporters to fund the reconstruction of areas devastated by Israel’s war machine: “We will not pour money into a black hole. Call us when you have put your house in order.”

Speaking earlier this month at a summit of Arab and Muslim leaders, Mr. Mikati put Lebanon’s war losses at US$8.5 billion. That includes Israel’s destruction of 100,000 homes and substantial impacts on health, education, and agriculture, according to the World Bank.

The Gulf leaders advised Mr. Mikati on the sidelines of the summit that Lebanon would need to elect a new president and implement reforms to secure funding. The leaders are likely to reiterate their position at a Gulf summit in Kuwait this weekend.

“Saudi Arabia is pushing the Lebanese to strengthen institutions,” an Arab diplomat said.

The Gulf states see Iran-backed Hezbollah’s military setbacks and post-war vulnerability as an opportunity to further reduce the group and Iran’s influence in Lebanon.

“What good is it if the Gulf people return with their money while Iran returns with its weapons and ability to impose its authority…?” asked Al-Arab, a London-based, Qatari-funded newspaper.

Iran funded half of the $400 million cost of reconstructing the southern suburbs of Beirut after the 2006 Lebanon war. This time around, the cost of rebuilding Lebanon is likely to be a multiple of the total $3.6 billion bill in 2006.

Visiting Beirut for talks with Lebanese and Hezbollah officials, Ali Larijani, a close aide of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, suggested Iran would do what it takes to contribute to Lebanese reconstruction.

“Pre-landing planes heading to Beirut’s airport in Amman for inspection? No problem. Pre-docking ships en route to Beirut Port in Dubai for the same purpose? No problem, either. The important thing is that Tehran has a financial foothold here on the day after (the war),” Mr. Larijani was quoted as saying.

Middle East scholar Yezid Sayegh said it was unclear whether Hezbollah would be able to bring Iranian funds into Lebanon, “let alone sufficient money to rebuild shops, businesses, and livelihoods.”

This week’s ceasefire could depend on Western and Gulf states’ ability to strike a balance between using aid to push Lebanon towards reform and ensuring the government and the army have what it takes to implement the ceasefire and reforms.

Lebanese Army chief Joseph Aoun insisted that he would have to recruit and train at least an additional 6,000 troops to implement the ceasefire without withdrawing troops from areas bordering Syria. Iranian shipments to Hezbollah often traverse Syria.

The ceasefire obliges the military to take control of south Lebanon together with United Nations peacekeepers, dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the area, prevent the group from importing weapons by land and sea, primarily from Iran and Syria, and work towards disarming Hezbollah and other militias in line with United Nations Security Council resolution 1559.

“If Israel assumes (or hopes) that Lebanon cannot deliver its end of the agreement, then it might already be looking past the 60-day plan to restart fighting if that long,”  warned scholar Dahlia Scheindlin.

Haaretz Middle East affairs analyst Zvi Bar’el suggested that among Israelis, “the fundamental assumption is that Hezbollah (weakened by the war) will make every effort to replenish its ranks with field fighters and commanders, restock its weapons and ammunition warehouses, and eventually spill over into southern Lebanon once again to restore the balance of deterrence against Israel.”

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri summons parliament to elect a new president on 9 January.  Credit: albawaba_english

Mr. Mikati, the Lebanese prime minister, hopes that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s summoning of the assembly to elect a new president on January 9 will demonstrate Lebanon’s determination to put its house in order and the fact that Hezbollah is forced to sing a tone lower.

In his first statement since the ceasefire took effect, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem promised “to contribute to the election of a president in accordance with the constitution.”

Lebanon has been without a president since President Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022. Neither Hezbollah and its allies nor the group’s opponents have been able to muster the parliamentary majority needed to elect Mr. Aoun’s successor.

A Gulf diplomat said the election would constitute a litmus test of the Lebanese state’s ability to reign in Hezbollah.

The new president would be empowered to appoint a prime minister capable of offering the military the political support it needs to implement the ceasefire agreement.

Although entrusted by Hezbollah to negotiate the ceasefire on the group’s behalf, Speaker Berri, who heads Amal, Hezbollah’s main Shiite political rival, stands to be a main beneficiary of the political fallout of a war that was started by Hezbollah last year, a day after Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel.

Many Lebanese, including Hezbollah supporters, feel the group provoked a war in support of the Palestinians that had nothing to do with them.

“Hezbollah has been diminished. There is no question about that… Its remaining military capability is still sufficient to make it a major player inside Lebanon, and it will not be disarmed any time soon,” said Mr. Sayigh, the Middle East scholar.

“That said, it will have to cede on things like selecting a president and maybe handing over influence in areas like the airport and seaport,” Mr. Sayigh added.

Even so, American University of Beirut international affairs scholar Joseph Bahout counselled caution.

"I'd love to say there's a rosy future with the war over," Mr. Bahout said.

Instead, he pointed to the political paralysis that has confounded Lebanon for years and brought it to the brink of economic collapse.

The war’s weakening of Hezbollah raises questions about the veracity of the group’s perceived military capability.

 

Touted as the world’s foremost non-state military actor, Hezbollah demonstrated resilience in 14 months of escalating hostilities but little evidence of its alleged capability to field 100,000 battle-hardened fighters backed by an arsenal of 150,000 missiles.

Hezbollah bolstered projections of its perceived strength by successfully operating surveillance drones that filmed critical Israeli infrastructure and military and intelligence sites, building an underground tunnel and arsenal network, and ability, at times, to overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile defence system.

Reeling from Israel’s body blows, Hezbollah boosted perceptions of its strength by retaining a measure of command and control and the ability to target population centers in Israel with missile barrages and complicate Israel’s ground invasion of southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s resilience allowed the group to claim victory on the principle that survival is victory in a battle between an inferior non-state actor and a well-equipped, battle-hardened military.

"We won because we prevented the enemy from destroying Hezbollah. We won because we prevented the enemy from destroying the resistance,” Mr. Qassem, the group’s leader, said.

Indeed, Hezbollah has survived. However, the group did not field tens of thousands of fighters, nor did it fire the number and sophistication of missiles that would have wracked on Israeli cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa, the kind of death and destruction Israel’s military rained on Beirut and southern Lebanon.

“Hezbollah fooled the Lebanese, itself, and the public by exaggerating its strength. Now, the Lebanese should not fool themselves by believing Hezbollah has been defeated in the war with Israel,” an Arab diplomat cautioned.

Like in Gaza, Israel would have wanted to destroy Hezbollah militarily and politically. But in contrast to Hamas in Gaza, destroying Hezbollah was not a sine qua non.

Israel will have achieved its primary war goals if Hezbollah adheres to the ceasefire, withdraws militarily from southern Lebanon, and security is restored on its northern border.

Even so, survival may not be good enough to justify Hezbollah’s continued existence as an extra-statal military force in Lebanon.

Basing its claim on forcing Israel to end in 2000 its 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah insisted that retaining its military wing would allow it to protect Lebanon against Israeli incursions. Israel shattered that myth in the latest round of fighting.

Credit: Middle East Eye

That was not the message of Hezbollah supporters waving the group’s flag as the ceasefire took effect in the ravaged southern suburbs of Beirut or returning to devastated homes in towns and villages in southern Lebanon that have no water and electricity. Their message was one of defiance: ‘We are still standing.’

Speaking to reporters in a damaged sports stadium in Bint Jbeil, a town with Israeli troops on its outskirts barely a kilometre from the Lebanese-Israeli border, Hezbollah member of parliament Hassan Fadlallah asserted, “Today we come to announce from Bint Jbeil and with confidence that we have won over the Israeli killing machine.”

Mr. Fadlallah conceded “that there is destruction, martyrs and sacrifices, but in front of the goal set by the enemy, the price paid was worth the great results that were achieved,’ including preventing Israel from occupying south Lebanon and destroying Hezbollah.

Mr. Fadlallah’s choice of Bint Jbeil was not coincidental. Road signs commemorate the town as “the capital of the resistance.” Bint Jbeil earned the moniker for holding out for 33 days against Israel during the 2006 Lebanese war and preventing it from occupying the city.

Fending off renewed occupation, Hezbollah projected its performance in recent weeks as a repeat of Bint Jbeil in 2006.

“This is victory. As long as the resistance is here – the Israelis will not be able to enter, then we have won,” Mohammed, a Bint Jbeil resident, told The Guardian.

Mohammed spoke before Mr. Qassem, the Hezbollah leader, appeared to confirm that, in accordance with the ceasefire, the defense of southern Lebanon was the Lebanese military’s prerogative.

Mr. Qassem suggested that the group may focus on politics and the provision of services rather than a regional military role in Syria and in confronting Israel.

"The coordination between the resistance and the Lebanese Army will be at a high level to implement the commitments of the (ceasefire) agreement," Mr. Qassem said, adding that "no one is betting on problems or disagreements" with the army.

"Hezbollah will work to preserve national unity and enhance Lebanon's defensive capabilities… Together with our people, we will continue the reconstruction process to provide decent housing." Mr. Qassem said.

Mr. Qassem insisted that Hezbollah would "cooperate with and talk to all forces that want to build a unified Lebanon within the framework of the Taif Agreement," the 1990 accord that ended the country’s 15-year-long civil war.

"We want to return Lebanon to be more beautiful than it was," Mr. Qassem said.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.