Saudi Arabia sees opportunity as Israel takes on Hezbollah and weighs retaliation against Iran

 

Mohammad Ali al-Husseini. Credit: WAM

By James M. Dorsey

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 Mohammad Ali al-Husseini personifies the complexity of escalating tensions tearing the Middle East apart.

A onetime associate of Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader Israel killed, Mr. Al-Husseini, a Lebanese Shiite cleric, has emerged as a controversial figure in Saudi efforts to counter Iran and its allies by making inroads into non-Saudi Shiite Muslim communities, particularly in Lebanon.

Mr. Al-Husseini’s renewed Saudi media appearances suggest continued Saudi-Iranian rivalry despite efforts by both countries to reduce tensions since they reestablished diplomatic relations last year.

Saudi Arabia broke off relations in 2016 after Iranian crowds ransacked the kingdom’s diplomatic missions in protest against the execution of a prominent Shiite cleric.

Meeting Gulf leaders last week at a gathering in Doha of Asian nations, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said, “We consider Islamic countries, including Saudi Arabia, as our brothers, and we emphasise the importance of setting aside differences to enhance cooperation.”

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian meets Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan in Doha. Credit: The National

With Gulf leaders reassuring Iran of their neutrality in the Islamic Republic’s conflict with Israel, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan responded, “We aim to permanently close the chapter on our differences and focus on resolving issues, developing relations as two friendly and brotherly countries.”

The two men spoke amid fears that Iran could attack Gulf oil facilities if Israel strikes at Iranian oil installations in retaliation for Iran’s firing last week of some 200 ballistic missiles at military and intelligence targets near Tel Aviv.

"The Gulf states think it's unlikely that Iran will strike their oil facilities, but the Iranians are dropping hints they might from unofficial sources. It's a tool the Iranians have against the US and the global economy," said Ali Shihabi, an analyst close to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Mohammad Ali Husseini meets Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Source: X 

Even so, Mr. Al-Husseini attracted attention by predicting on Saudi television that Israel would assassinate the Hezbollah leader days before he died last week in an airstrike involving bunker-busting bombs. Mr. Al-Husseini advised Mr. Nasrallah to draft his will.

Since then, Mr. Al-Husseini has charged that Iran “sold” Mr. Nasrallah to Israel in an apparent attempt to fuel anti-Iranian sentiment among some Hezbollah supporters who accuse Iran of not coming to the group’s aid in its fight with Israel.

Mr. Al-Husseini further predicted Israel’s ground offensive days before Israeli troops began crossing the border into Lebanon, suggesting that they would attempt to create a buffer zone.

Mr. Al-Husseini’s predictions took on a life of their own, given that the Shiite cleric was convicted more than a decade ago by a Lebanese court to five years in prison for having had contact with Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service.

Mr. Al-Husseini made his predictions as Hezbollah sought to identify how Israel had penetrated the group, allowing it to disrupt the group’s communications and target its political and military leaders and weapon depots.

Israel pounds Beirut. Credit: RFI

Mr. Al-Husseini’s history and favorable attitude towards Israel are fodder for conspiracy theories, even if it is unlikely that he would have retained access to Hezbollah’s inner circle or the group’s sensitive operational information.

Released early from prison as part of a domestic Lebanese political deal, Mr. Al-Husseini was granted Saudi citizenship in 2021 under a scheme intended to ensure Saudi Arabia can compete for foreign talent with the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Singapore;

Mr. Al-Husseini projects his naturalization as evidence of Saudi pluralism and tolerance.

“The glowing truth that cannot be contested is that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is open to everyone…and does not look at dimensions of…a sectarian type," Mr. Al-Husseini said, ignoring his new homeland’s history of discrimination of its Shiite Muslim minority.

Mr. Al-Husseini's association with Saudi Arabia, coupled with his promotion of Saudi efforts to engage with Jewish communities and his advocacy of relations with Israel as a way of countering Iran's regional influence, has done little to enhance his credibility in a broad swath of Shiite public opinion in Lebanon and Iraq.

Saudi Arabia, together with the United Arab Emirates, has maintained its designation of Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation, depite a statement by the Arab League that groups the Middle East and North Africa’s Arab states that it no longer would label the Lebanese militia as terrorists.

Mohammad Ali al-Husseini (left) and Hassan Nasrallah (right). Source: YouTube

Mr. Al-Husseini has sought to deflate the controversy by emphasizing his history as a co-founder of Hezbollah, posting on social media pictures of himself with Mr. Nasrallah, and asserting that he had “liberated the South together” with the late Hezbollah leader.

The cleric was referring to Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000 after 18 years of occupation. Hezbollah is widely seen as having forced Israel to withdraw.

Mr. Al-Husseini’s maneuvers are an attempt to capitalise on broader efforts to exploit Hezbollah’s perceived weakness.

With many Lebanese accusing Hezbollah of dragging their country into a war that is not theirs, Hezbollah seems eager to prevent its popular base from eroding. It has signaled its willingness to break Lebanon’s two year-long political stalemate that blocked the appointment of a new president.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a veteran Shiite Muslim politician empowered by Hezbollah to negotiate on its behalf, opened the door to a resolution by telling acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati he supported the election of a president who doesn't represent "a challenge" to anyone. Hezbollah’s insistence that Lebanon’s next president should be a Christian ally of the group was one reason the appointment of a new head of state has stalled.

US officials suggested Mr. Berri’s offer reflected Hezbollah’s weakened position as a result of Israeli body blows, including Mr. Nasrallah’s killing.

"We have made clear for some time that we think the Lebanese government needs to overcome the dysfunction in the system — one of the primary instigators of that dysfunction being the Hezbollah veto over who the next president would be — and elect a president,” said US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller.

At the same time, a 2023 video resurfaced on social media featuring Hashem Safieddine, one of Mr. Nasrallah’s potential successors whom Israel attempted to kill in recent days, warning Christians that Hezbollah would not wait indefinitely for them to put forward an acceptable presidential candidate.

“What is being proposed to some Lebanese now, if they don’t grasp it quickly, the time will come when they won’t be able to secure the offer being presented today. It’s better if you hurry; delaying is not in your interest because you lack the leverage…you imagine you have but no longer possess,” Mr. Safieddine said a year into the political deadlock.

Mr. Safieddine was referring to Lebanon’s demography, which had evolved since 1932 when Christians accounted for 53 per cent of the population and Shiite Muslims for 19.7 per cent. In 2022, the CIA put Shiite Muslims and Christians at roughly one-third each, with the Maronites constituting the majority among Lebanon’s minority Christians.

The 1932 census constituted the basis for an unwritten 1943 national pact that reserved the presidency for a Maronite, the position of prime minister for a Sunni Muslim, and the parliament speaker’s job for a Shiite Muslim.

Neither Israel nor Hezbollah have commented on Mr. Safieddine’s fate.

However, Gulf media, including Saudi Arabia’s Al Hadath TV, cited Israeli security sources as saying he had been killed in the bombing of Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Al Hadath quoted sources as saying the bombing’s intensity left "no possibility of survival."

A Lebanese security source said Mr. Safieddine has been out of contact since Friday.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.