Blinken touts problematic UAE plan for post-war Gaza
Credit: The Atlantic
By James M.
Dorsey
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US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken is jumping through hoops on his 11th Middle East tour in the past year.
As he attempts to revive the stalled Gaza ceasefire talks and secure agreement on post-war arrangements in the Strip, Mr. Blinken is discovering that Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may not be the only party pooper.
So is Mahmoud Abbas, the internationally recognised, West Bank-based Palestinian president.
Mr. Blinken is touting a United Arab Emirates proposal for the administration of Gaza once a ceasefire has been achieved. The proposal was crafted with input from Israel but not the Palestinians.
That’s where the rub starts.
Credit: Hindustan Times
Palestinian sources said a senior US official shared the
Emirati proposal with Mr. Abbas and his dysfunctional Palestine Authority only
days ago.
The sources said Mr. Abbas rejected the proposal for one reason: it did not involve Palestinians in determining their future and governance. They also said Mr. Abbas opposed Emirati involvement in post-war Gaza.
Some US officials fear that the UAE and Israel see the proposal as a way to marginalize Mr. Abbas’ Palestine Authority, even though they need it to give the plan a Palestinian veneer of legitimacy.
The plan’s first phase envisions “a temporary international mission that responds to the humanitarian crisis, establishes law and order, lays the groundwork for governance, and paves the way to reuniting Gaza and the occupied West Bank under a single, legitimate Palestinian Authority,” according to UAE assistant minister for political affairs and special envoy of the foreign ministry Lana Nusseibeh.
Lana Nusseibeh
In an op-ed in July, Ms. Nusseibeh said the UAE would
contribute to an international security force provided it was invited by the
Authority and led by the United States. Egypt, other Arab states, and European
countries would likely provide contingents. The force would replace Israeli
troops in Gaza in phases.
Israeli officials said the force would initially not include Palestinian security personnel but could incorporate private security companies.
Ms. Nusseibeh suggested the Authority and its security forces could play a more significant role once it introduces "meaningful reforms and (is) led by a new prime minister who is empowered and independent."
The proposal calls for an initial Palestinian administration made up of former government technocrats, including carefully vetted members of Hamas. The administration would be supervised by an international body that would include the United States and the UAE.
Salam Fayyad
Israeli officials suggested Salam Fayyad, a former
Palestinian prime minister and International Monetary Fund official, could head
a post-war Gaza technocratic administration.
Mr. Fayyad has long been a proponent of Palestinian
reconciliation, which would return Hamas to the Palestinian mainstream and
reform the Palestine Authority to root out corruption, improve its governance,
and upgrade its security forces.
“What needs to happen is to expand the PLO in order to include in its ranks all Palestinian factions…especially Hamas (and) Islamic Jihad… The Palestinian position is best presented to the world by a united Palestinian polity…. There is no other solution to the current impasse,” Mr. Fayyad said earlier this year.
Mr. Fayyad has yet to comment on leaked elements of the
Emirati proposal.
Earlier this week, Hamas political bureau member Mousa Abu Marzouk asked Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov to mediate between Hamas and its archrival, Al-Fatah, the backbone of Mr. Abbas’ Palestine Authority in anticipation of the formation of a Palestinian national unity government.
According to US, Israeli, and Emirati officials, the Emirati proposal is the product of ideas that were bounced around for months by Mr. Blinken, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed, Egyptian President Abdul Fattah Al-Sisi, former British prime minister Tony Blair, and Mr. Netanyahu.
Even so, Mr. Netanyahu opposes linking Gaza’s post-war transition to an eventual two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Mr. Netanyahu also rejects giving the Palestine Authority pride of place in Gaza’s administration once it has been reformed.
Mr. Netanyahu has given no indication that he has softened his position on a Gaza ceasefire and post-war arrangements in the Strip in the wake of last week’s Israeli killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. For that matter, neither has Hamas.
Even so, Mr. Netanyahu
authorized Israeli negotiators to discuss a ceasefire in Doha with Qatari
Prime Miniter Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and CIA Director Bill Burn on
Sunday.
Earlier this week, Mr. Blinken told families of the remaining 101 Hamas-held hostages that he was working to secure a two-week temporary truce that would involve the release of fewer than ten hostages to test Hamas’ commitment to ending the war.
Hamas has long insisted that a ceasefire end the war and facilitate the withdrawal of Israeli troops. For his part, Mr. Netanyahu maintains he needs to continue the war to free the remaining hostages.
Mr. Netanyahu’s rejection of a permanent ceasefire and his limited endorsement of the UAE plan hasn’t stopped him from creating facts on the ground.
Mr. Netanyahu is considering hiring Global Delivery Company (GDC), an Israeli-US private security company, to take charge of aid distribution in Gaza.
The move would serve to preempt efforts by a post-war Gaza administration to rehabilitate the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNWRA), the foremost humanitarian operator in the Strip.
Asserting that UNRWA is intertwined with Hamas, Mr. Netanyahu is determined to put the UN agency out of business.
Hiring GDC would allow Mr. Netanyahu to address mounting US pressure to increase the flow of aid into Gaza. The US has threatened to suspend arms sales if Israel fails to significantly enhance the flow.
Moti Kahana. Credit JTA
Haaretz journalist Noa Landau warned that employing GDC “would
privatize military rule over Gaza.” She described GDC CEO Moti Kahana’s
suggestion that “if something happens, we'll send a message to Gaza's residents
– you
don't want to mess with us” as a “genuine mafia-style line.”
In interviews with Israel’s Yediot Aharonot and The Guardian, Mr. Kahana demonstrated little empathy for war-ravaged Palestinians or understanding of the extent of Gaza’s devastation.
Mr. Kahana said he would subcontract an unidentified British security firm working in Iraq to operate on the ground in Gaza. “These are British special forces. They know what they’re doing,” Mr. Kahana told Yediot Aharonot.
Speaking to The Guardian, Mr. Kahana suggested lightly armed teams would use small armoured trucks to distribute aid in designated areas.
He said the teams would have riot control gear, including plastic bullets and water cannons. If the distribution teams were attacked, a nearby, more heavily armed rapid reaction force would intervene, Mr. Kahana said.
Mr. Kahana’s plan envisages expanding distribution areas into “gated communities” under armed guard. Biometrics would control access to the areas to keep Hamas operatives out.
“It’s the same as a Miami gated community, but without the pool, tennis court and golf course or whatever. The idea is that it’s gated, it’s safe. We just provide the security and people run their own lives, and take humanitarian supplies into their communities,” Mr. Kahana said.
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.
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