tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15931892888987308072024-03-18T15:20:16.501+08:00The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer<a href="http://blog.feedspot.com/middle_east_blogs/" title="Middle East blogs"><img src="https://blog-cdn.feedspot.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Middle-East-100-216px.png"></a>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.comBlogger2461125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-21601579378885815252024-03-18T15:19:00.001+08:002024-03-18T15:19:16.972+08:00Iran may be on the cusp of change. A conversation with Arash Azizi.<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUuGWTt19InxEowcBwCTrRXq8tKcJxNPy-p4kQrhsUjbdo79rySySnLtJOdiJrSdkf8BqGbr6DrCg9baXf4QaIzWnaPYeO0UZduHwhFigqR_28IlX7P-jCE255jDtBgqZ0VFzzkVLeMslEFq_itqDQBm5HF7WaKjGN9UesMSSuMymzZcsUlLLATlpwP5A/s1280/Arash%20Azizi.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUuGWTt19InxEowcBwCTrRXq8tKcJxNPy-p4kQrhsUjbdo79rySySnLtJOdiJrSdkf8BqGbr6DrCg9baXf4QaIzWnaPYeO0UZduHwhFigqR_28IlX7P-jCE255jDtBgqZ0VFzzkVLeMslEFq_itqDQBm5HF7WaKjGN9UesMSSuMymzZcsUlLLATlpwP5A/s320/Arash%20Azizi.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%;">By James M. Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
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subscription options. Thank you.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p style="background: white;"><a name="_Hlk161660311"><em><span style="font-family: Aptos, serif;">To watch a video version of this story </span></em></a><em><span style="font-family: Aptos, serif;">or listen to a</span></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="font-family: Aptos, serif;">n audio podcast </span></em></a><em><span style="font-family: Aptos, serif;">click </span></em><a href="https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/iran-may-be-on-the-cusp-of-change"><span style="font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "DengXian Light"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">here</span></a><em><span style="font-family: Aptos, serif;">.</span></em></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Transcript<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/8HRsCQI0BvcvVVRH5_sp3fSkpUOh4cRMpv2u1kHgtVMQTlHCI3LlV9kxSC2Jhg1qjQeTOgNFolpi79pcav1lS0i2s50?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=6.96"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:00:06</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Hello and welcome to the Turbulent World with me, James
M. Dorsey, as your host.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Iranians vote with their feet. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Earlier this month, turnout for parliamentary elections
and the 88-member Assembly of Experts that appoints Iran's supreme leader was
at 41% an all time low.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In 2022 and 2023. Iran was racked by mass protests
sparked by the death of 22-year-old Iranian Kurd Mahsa Amini while in the
morality police's custody, Mrs. Amini was detained for allegedly violating
Iran's strict rules requiring women to cover their hair with a hijab, or
headscarf. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Many hoped the demonstrations, like multiple earlier
protests, signaled the beginning of the end of Iran's clerical regime that came
to power in the 1979 Islamic revolution. The revolt overthrew the Shah, the
first toppling in the last 40 plus years of an icon of US influence in the
Middle East. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Hardliners in the United States and elsewhere have
called for supporting civil society opposition.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/qpcGR9VvXbuqVh258SLD7yJMCcfwreMihqjSqRNKQTAyESqrPNY89BLl0PcDTcGTER5b6UKypMX0AdGZ9gKKhtBRdpw?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=85.32"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:01:25</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Others advocate breaking Iran apart by supporting
ethnic and religious minorities in the country. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">A historian and political scientist at South Carolina's
Clemson University, Arash Azizi argues that Iran may be on the cusp of change.
It's just that the change may come from within the regime rather than from the
street. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The change is likely to involve a polishing of the
sharp edges of the Islamic Republic rather than a transition to democracy. Even
so Arash, the author of two books, a biography of Qassem Soleimani, the
commander of Iran's notorious Quds Force who was killed in 2020 in an American
drone strike, and a just published volume on the recent women's protest
movement argued in The New York Times that Supreme leader Ali Khamenei's inner
circle is populated by technocrats and pragmatists rather than ideologues and revolutionaries
who want to perpetuate the status quo. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Few will challenge the notion that the eventual passing
of the baton by 84-year-old Mr. Khamenei, who is believed to be in poor health,
embodies the potential of change, even if the recent Assembly of Experts
election was stacked against reformers who were banned from being candidates. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Counterintuitively, Arash sees a ray of hope in the
eventual transition to a new Supreme Leader reason enough to welcome Aash to
the show. Aash, it's a pleasure to host you today.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/CveK2wVb5wsCrZ2eva0z7VAqVKnSacX9iClWuvOyt2RfaUG56Ktx4uwF6rH1Gy_whHVTtNVchqDXjyKeJy0y1jskf5E?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=189.01"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:03:09</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Thank you, James. It's great to be with you.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/DNSBfHnh0UOszpfFVmJomhKJnNyWR8m8ACV16S1M9ejzRVdq80xuzKIHH2SoqhC594hOxOod4Eu5ppFDLR3baS5Jve0?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=191.68"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:03:11</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Let's kick off with you giving us a bit of your
intellectual biography and your engagement with Iran. Allow me to note that
links to Arash's books will be at the bottom of the transcript of this podcast,
which you will be able to find on my Substack newsletter early next week.
Arash, the ether is yours.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/moEoHl3HJRxf7FHTamOUp5q35BzXs-JZbRLqkkF1Utxi-wFmr-DIGJtGDt0g01gL54pZTHH8yHp3b_jrxTKsI-XqrfM?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=213.61"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:03:33</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Thank you. My name is Arash. As said, I'm from Iran and
when it comes to my intellectual biography, especially when it comes to Iran's
struggle for democracy, it's really sort of inseparable from my life. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">I was born in Teran in 1988, Iran is the country I grew
up in, and I had the privilege of, and I really do see it as a privilege of
growing up in one of the most fascinating periods in Iranian history in the
late 90s. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">When I was nine years old, Iran elected the reformist
president Muhammad Khatami. And it's not so much just about him or internal
politics of the Islamic Republic, but this election really opened the new era
in Iranian history where millions of people were seeking change. Millions of
people really had beliefs that Iran could be democratized, that it could change
very quickly. It was a time of artistic and cultural and journalistic
excellence.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/49yzGkakv6xIe6ErIA9xuDSNkmI8CPLCF-Ib6nsCDNLfjbYuVnoZIQSlroxYyXhdLZHx5DGlg5S_-Sm6ivzpsMEbJEY?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=272.02"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:04:32</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">There were tons of newspapers everywhere in the
society. Everyone spoke about possibilities of change. It's really exciting
time to grow up in, and I was and am from early on I identified as a Marxist
and I still see myself always on the left side of things. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But what definitely hasn't changed is me being part of
the Iranian quest, seeing myself as part of the Iranian quest to change things
and to bring a freer and more democratic and more just Iran. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Now, I was a journalist for many years. I was a TV
anchor. I then turned to academia, got a PhD in history and Middle Eastern
studies from NYU. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But these are really all details. The broader picture
remains, remains the same as I said with the broader reference, which is I am
still really that Iranian citizen trying to imagine a different Iran and
hopefully bring about a different Iran as part of a different world.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/38hTk7Fg1kcD8g0P8I_dIpQa7yzZpJdPyyJqsMTs9_dloweUqXcGXJLNr7P_JVOjq7iVv2Pjkjg4V98GevS0ifmm4iE?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=346.6"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:05:46</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">And yet you left Iran.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/ZWwlGEFu9U4XqSKFIKbUjV8xAHohvbvjpVyRb4N-2AFfunwxUVrAkqmmnOGw013uV1IgZ-a2QiIJk3yoYXCKv_cI82U?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=349.96"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:05:49</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">That's right. Yeah. I mean I've left Iran in 2008
actually. So, I haven't been back like millions of Iranians. I unfortunately
haven't been back to Iran for that many years, close to two decades now. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">And it's funny, when I left in 2008, I couldn't have
imagined that I won't be able to go back. I mean, I really didn't imagine that
at all. In 2009 we had a grand movement called the Green Movement that started
from contesting a presidential election, basically contestation over the
results, but really morphed into a grand anti-regime movement. And really a lot
of us thought this is it, and the regime would be gone. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">I remember, I lived in Canada at the time and I was
renting a place and I told this landlord, ‘Oh, I can't sign for another year
because the regime would be overthrown.’ 40 years is over and I have to go
back. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">So, this is really kind of the perhaps naivete that you
have also as to, I was 20 years old or something, but yeah, I left. I lived in
many other countries. I lived in Malaysia, I lived in Britain, Germany, Canada,
and now the United States.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/-UVthHAUC_x5o0nHd2_-oWYr8qNmJcNenKWbtdElTziXTyjibKTSgJaBDBdATBQgED5Y13T6mWm768LklxkFOW3tIHM?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=425.99"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:07:05</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">And you seem to come to the conclusion that it won't be
popular revolts that provoke change in Iran. Tell us why you think change will
come from the top rather than the bottom and what that change may look like.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/QiFDhsv9cuVUzSghEbrH9pA5CjHyn7Zuftk-ktzQMIZFePFdgz8i0qyD4hWP6BRNPG7EUjsWUiVBcIxh2aF-sitgy_M?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=442.34"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:07:22</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Yeah, it's a very tough reality to sort of admit, if
you will, and that sort of, I wrote this piece for The New York Times that you
referred to where I'm talking about this, but also in the epilogue to my book,
and this is a book that I wrote really with all my heart. It's called ‘What
Iranians Want: Women, Life, Freedom.’ <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">This is a book that on every page of it I wrote about
people that I really consider my heroes. These are my fellow Iranians, trade
unionists, environmental activists, feminist activists. These are people who
really, this era that I spoke about from late 90s to now, they wage the heroic
struggle over decades against the Islamic Republic. They embody all the
wonderful ideas that the regime doesn't…This book is really…a testament to
them.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/o-pz7_0ZbuQZMIMoEc3ojvXQUYVa4jaro-AoCbi-Sfg3elR1OytJ53pV3tZyunAxL34t0GdmPX2U-yiXVFXl-dUro6E?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=503.4"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:08:23</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The reason I wrote it is that I wanted Iran to not be
reduced to what you usually have in the headlines of whether it's a nuclear
program or all the soldiers or the mullahs. And I wanted to see that there is a
different Iran and much of the work that I do in fact is an attempt to ensure
that there is this different Iran. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">However, even in the epilogue of this book, when I'm
trying to predict the future of Iran, if you will, I have to admit, one has to
be honest, that it's not clear that it's these movements that will be the only
ones who are calling the shots. I mean, it's clear that that won't be the case,
right? And one has to be brutally honest. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Now, the reality is that the grand movements for civil
liberties, for democracy that I talked about have had a basic failure in the
last couple of decades, and that has been a failure to translate their power
and their demands into a political channel.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/6ioXCLKbt668odeF70W2fIjZA6o13wVb674fFZjXd3blq_GFAAPiqLCQ3yBou4KtXMEYI3TABotrHQVhk45rPwypdK0?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=565.77"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:09:25</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">This is a very important thing and I think it's an
important ailment. Basically, I think we have a political deficit around the
world. I often when in this conversation, I often point to this new </span><a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/vincent-bevins/if-we-burn/9781541788978/" style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">book by Vincent Bevins about
the missing decade of the 2010s</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">.</span><em><span style="font-family: Aptos, serif;"> </span></em><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white; text-align: center;"><em></em></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><em><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIf5aN4dzV3p5yOx9hky6ju_lJOYN2TysmoIJpmKne6G9eMVWr0IyGttQIIEKR-9xEBYVF2Kclq12luiYXmo-fQ4_JVKMQ7M3ue8hXV7xC1xuovq673J6pRT57ldFM9RWxrZDdGwRGEBn9Y2u0TCUKrQINfFNh1v48GczCiJXWIqD85L30Wn21ktmqPwA/s522/Vincent%20Bevins%20book.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="522" data-original-width="337" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIf5aN4dzV3p5yOx9hky6ju_lJOYN2TysmoIJpmKne6G9eMVWr0IyGttQIIEKR-9xEBYVF2Kclq12luiYXmo-fQ4_JVKMQ7M3ue8hXV7xC1xuovq673J6pRT57ldFM9RWxrZDdGwRGEBn9Y2u0TCUKrQINfFNh1v48GczCiJXWIqD85L30Wn21ktmqPwA/s320/Vincent%20Bevins%20book.jpg" width="207" /></a></em></div><p style="background: white; text-align: center;"><em><em><br /></em></em></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">This is a writer, a journalist, who goes and looks at
all the different mass movements in the 2010s to show some of the reasons that
they failed. I mean, he looked at it, whether the Arab Spring or a movement in
Brazil and a lot of other places, even in Ukraine. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In some sense, actually what becomes clear is that
there is a failure to translate these mass movements into a political channel,
the political proper political channel, especially because there is a lack of a
tradition of political parties, organized political forces that were very
powerful in the 20th century. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">And somehow by the end of the 20th century, we
convinced ourselves, I might say we on the left and on the right, it's
interesting, there's sort of convergence on the left in the name of Autonomism
or Horizontalism, and on the right and the language of end of ideology and all
that becomes that this was sort of all
the bad 20th century stuff and we don't need anymore.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/VdA3q0RlckAeA3ZOT3pjynz4kuRRYoHadYT2f5h6r-eyAcDdGdEHdESzaRwKY7vg5rv59Ql-HBBdf2Kz_xJzAsrpAvk?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=643.86"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:10:43</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">All we need now are hashtags and it is spontaneous
people coming together, but unfortunately you don't get political change like
that. So, unfortunately in Iran, for a variety of reasons, these movements that
I am very proud to be a part of have failed politically to cohere into a
political alternative. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">And we have to be honest, right? Everyone loves to,
whenever you lose in politics, everyone loves to say you scored a moral
victory. Unfortunately, moral victories don't change history. They don't change
people's lives in politics. It's about winning. It's about being able to
dislodge the dictators that are in power and there is no clear path for this
sort of freedom movements in Iran to do so. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/NRGwYU-P-xbzrSweY9iENbzVsK39O1ur0rwGd7Kt6qWa5074Ato4QfK8-N89Nx2yDHSUCKzjnlqXyohNBTpMncoS6BE?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=696.64"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:11:36</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">If I can interject, I think of course, just to sharpen
what you're saying, I agree with you. I think the problem that you see with
popular revolts, and you see that going back to 1986 with People Power in the
Philippines and certainly with the popular Arab revolts in 2011, it's that
there are two tensions. One is translating street action into backroom
bartering and politics. And it's always the question, at what point do you
surrender the street? Because once you've surrendered the street, you can't
retake it.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC30ZUV42_g_R7Fwtf_nhNlyqjF4129cnwJ0qe1AUHNCkxZZB42RoMgDgYvsEoEyQcOxzhIVKbXFgSSbZV8YWL1Zu4d-_0gUreeqVXk2XPB2WFDtIfq3DhQtTWPld8MKCcIA-PQkHx6NAueU-vHPlcEKkFsOeWHVZFMykpeEPnYWu9yttMdPFMhc6zjy8/s624/Edsa.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="435" data-original-width="624" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC30ZUV42_g_R7Fwtf_nhNlyqjF4129cnwJ0qe1AUHNCkxZZB42RoMgDgYvsEoEyQcOxzhIVKbXFgSSbZV8YWL1Zu4d-_0gUreeqVXk2XPB2WFDtIfq3DhQtTWPld8MKCcIA-PQkHx6NAueU-vHPlcEKkFsOeWHVZFMykpeEPnYWu9yttMdPFMhc6zjy8/s320/Edsa.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">People gathered at
Quirino Grandstand for Tagumpay ng Bayan (Victory of the People) rally where
Cory Aquino calls for a campaign of civil disobedience. Credit: LIFE Photo
Collection.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/4EyZ7lPqEMBBYTgXXQLQNt3KEl7LXF6yTqbirJDuFo2LDW52mJFG-YQ7fGPyp_JyTpL-FpG3IYJacGCpHwW-q0WGwBE?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=740.5"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:12:20</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Yeah, absolutely. It's a fascinating way of looking at
it. It's interesting that you brought up Philippines. I don't know enough about
it, but you look at it actually as a positive example in some ways, because at
least in Philippines, they were able to, when I look at countries that have
gone through some sort of a democratic transition, I mean I look at Philippines
as one and that one in which an authoritarian system was replaced by a very
imperfect democracy. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But at any rate, it is a democracy. People are electing
their leaders in the polls, which would be a dream for Iranians, frankly, if we
got to a place where we had anything like that. But I'm fascinated by the way
you put it because that's precisely the point though. Yes, you are right, that
if when you give up the street to the backroom, then you cannot take it back.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/Ins1GkwMgoO6hD1D0Rv1y3OOQf_8NDwzw2Sp25teE5qwc8cwg40NLk1PC6WF-R0cF_AW48SSgw3gZTxZz_KxAoZNJ-Q?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=784.81"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:13:04</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But also, you cannot keep the street forever, right?
Absolutely. If you're in politics, you either cash it in at some time or it
dissipates because people…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Yes, if you are in your early 20s and you love going to
demonstrations, this is a big part of your life, you come under the illusion
that, goodness, wouldn't this be great if this was life basically, right? That
all the time we did was this. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But even leftists themselves who say this, usually they
get to an age where they get a job and they get married, whatever, and they're
not interested in doing this every day. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Certainly, most people, they're not trying to be
political actors every day. They're trying to live their lives. If they can
help it, perhaps they like to even not think about politics as much, and we can
be critical of that, but means that you have to work with new ones that you
have.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">So, I think the key thing is to know whether it's for
popular worlds or any sort of political action, it's key thing to know what is
your strategy and how you can channel it. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/wZJrUN5Nl-yzzTETCgb1agT5MMJ1n_IFBgOWDBFnIxg7PjUfVSoPIJj2YJlVNOA5-YkotN7Cx2dC-FB-2ckDez0HA7M?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=852.91"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:14:12</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Yeah, let me just interject…. This is a fascinating
discussion, but I do want you to come back to my question.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/wrkmfT8BerUGB8Vzq8Hrijz_ynslvQb7p5l2Pe8bYCxN1lDONxIAsBWlTnAU3-8vo62m8ZjRkLqJYWq-UJo5XQ1Tzqo?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=859.66"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:14:19</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Yeah, of course.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/Ew1Ho-tvDQnCUCUeoiYDnbaTDYb9_Bh2kGBhppS-p88xNe5iHY0QMOmnnmXtG-WjVLcqvAQatY82sixAjSA-u2dZw24?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=861.01"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:14:21</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">I co-authored a book several years ago, which compared
political transition in the Philippines, sorry, in Southeast Asia and the
Middle East. And what we concluded was that in the case of the Philippines, in
the case of Indonesia, and in fact also in the case of Myanmar prior to the
military coup, what worked was that there were three players in this. There was
a strong civil society, but there also was a faction of the military that saw
an advantage or an interest in supporting change. And so that's what you really
had in Southeast Asia, and that's what in a lot of ways you lacked in the
Middle East.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/4QE-4bqt5TqJiNXZ153PCWRh0H4rONKS-BM_dOoyubFS56zX13TTm8MWDKvq419SSCLbNg37lSlx7UBkMdG45VrDISo?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=924.23"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:15:24</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Well, if there was ever a segue that said, yeah, that's
really fascinating. Exactly sort of what I'm trying to explore in regards to
Iran.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/jlZ0YD_f0gB4NESN6sNa77SZfae3gAALDneDif-LAzz6kYdk_RjZRp81jwHMWUnHvBWcxmcwEVro9Cc8JmyOzhCQ69U?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=939.44"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:15:39</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Let's go back to Iran. Indeed.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/k0MR-cm5s203PeGTthVLHKBHs_l7WNzHpJkyiXjt0v_ssEzo8N_cu6wTaDtJR7xUtiS8XWDDQqzCGnJGBanMAZvknus?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=942.2"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:15:42</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Yeah, no, but I mean it's exactly this question. To go
back to your original question, which relates to this point about the
comparison between Southeast Asia and the Middle East, the way I would put it,
by the way as I write in The New York Times, it's an op-ed, you need to always
extend to it the point a little too much. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The way I would put it is not so much that, oh, the
change will come from the top, not the bottom. Although there is also truth to
that. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But let me put it here if I may. I basically think that
a variety of, let's call 'em civic movements, it's pro-democracy movements.
These people that I wrote this book about, these people who want democracy for
Iran and who are idealists, I don't mean that in a negative way, but I mean
there are those who have ideals, right? <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">They want a different Iran, they have substantive ideas
about gender justice, about social justice. They'll continue to be a big part
of future of Iran, and that's sort of the camp that I consider myself part of. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In fact, whatever change happens at the top, I even do
say whatever change happens at the top, they're not going to stop fighting,
they're going to stop. They're going to continue the struggles.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/CBVX1KS6yX5Ql9Qm7UFy2mrRY18V9gMdxp9zj9SzntELskIZLkqMhEq0bIeZnH8QGeKJKupLSXFiEA4FbJbSk3iproA?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1019.66"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:16:59</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But the thing is the Islamic Republic is not just that
it falls short of these more substantive ideas of justice, but that it's in a
really moment of crisis in which it's suffering from acute incompetency and
acute sort of legitimacy crisis. It follows policies that seem to be in favor
of no one really. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">It's funny, we often like to compare the late Islamic
Republic as we call it, a bit hopefully with the late Soviet Union saying that,
oh, there was an ideological crisis, there was an economic crisis. But when you
look at the late Soviet Union, it's doing rather great compared to the Islamic
Republic.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/OZJ_Tmct3wvHaH970b6Yzfu0l1ve5n9Tz45agdcOFEx5eDpf16mGgWZaIdQB_Fq9AyfgIWepjPCE8q59vEBPqlLf3lA?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1061.84"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:17:41</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">At the end of the day, whatever you say about the state
socialism, it had some coherence. It was followed around the world. There were
millions of people around the world who saw some hope. With the Islamic
Republic, it's really hard to see anyone really believing in it as an
alternative model.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">So, to make the story short, what I'm arguing is that Khamenei
is going to be 85 next month. He is going to die and pass away at some point,
and it's not just that his passing is important, but at the moment he is really
the only thing that holds together this highly disparate system of people who
have sharp segments with each other. The vie forpower, and no one really
believes in the ideals of this revolution anymore. The idea of 1979 revolution,
it hasn't been able to create even a coherent form of alternative. Iran is not
more religious. Iran is ever more capitalistic.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/6d8u6THCLbdHuYcpIZU_3GMyH7UDxi6iig5ZIM_EFMngdItV84kW8_gdopO0PilWRDGvSnQommj6VSGaeQ_kim30m90?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1120.41"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:18:40</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">It really, you cannot look at this and say, oh, this is
a sort of Islamic model of life. If you look at all these foreign supporters of
the Islamic Republic who come to Iran, it is very rare for them to praise the
domestic regime. The most they can do is say, oh, Iran is great because it's
supporting anti-Israel forces in the region. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">So, my argument is that elements in the leadership of
the Islamic Republic today and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, IRGC,
see this militia as the ones who are most likely to come on top after the death
of Khamenei. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">I think popular movements will make their attempt, but
frankly, I think it's most likely that these other established forces will come
on top, at least initially, and that I do believe that they will make some
fundamental changes in Iran because they want to make the country less of a
basket case, frankly less of a crisis mode. So that that's sort of the root of
this prediction or prognosis that I have for the immediate future of Iran.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH3wvwINSFxfYGbOgRLe4oXdla0hqaF-R7NP84vFFUlg_5B-o4aHdpI2_LiyZWzLkoWLbwpVGMnMaBnMESr2gGyEZ1uUR8-nPf4wraOIw9Q-ORZ3huV5hJA_ePZz2d0CKJjsHbfOFQQx2rYf9FrdQ-JkV6hRKukN2OuKn3jT2e4lPdup2RXeyQlowvamU/s624/Khamenei-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="328" data-original-width="624" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH3wvwINSFxfYGbOgRLe4oXdla0hqaF-R7NP84vFFUlg_5B-o4aHdpI2_LiyZWzLkoWLbwpVGMnMaBnMESr2gGyEZ1uUR8-nPf4wraOIw9Q-ORZ3huV5hJA_ePZz2d0CKJjsHbfOFQQx2rYf9FrdQ-JkV6hRKukN2OuKn3jT2e4lPdup2RXeyQlowvamU/s320/Khamenei-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">I</span><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; letter-spacing: .25pt;">ran’s
supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaks during a meeting in
Tehran. Credit: <span class="author">Office of the Iranian Supreme
Leader/WANA/Reuters</span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/GJK-7I6UzZF8kYxHU8hx1RUDFJvxkzPuW00dpCnQxvd8r3BAwAhKbDsNNAFeXOzl7UamoVYOLLKwWvmp1TYLXDBhJDg?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1186.86"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:19:46</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">This goes straight actually to my next question. You've
described the technocrats among those people as military technocrats. In other
words, if I read this correctly, and I think that's what you're saying, the
post-Khamenei era would involve a transition to a greater role for the IRGC or
the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which would drive the change, whereas
the pragmatists that you also sort of point out within the regime and
particularly within Khomeini's inner circle, are largely former diplomats. Is
that correct?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/6Lfny2JxelMWuMQL9toZi3ASTLJZCXvgYYi-gwzHMUd1PGk15LYDXRisZof3oo3jPVaQHUGO-w6NopVG3Ojt_uvwfqE?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1227.66"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:20:27</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Actually, the first part is definitely correct is that
so there is a yes. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">I believe that this militia, IRGC, is likely to have
the upper hand in the post a period. Now, it's a bit complicated because IRGC
itself is not a united force. It has so many disparate groups, but people with
different stakes in it. It's also not just the military group effectively
because yes, it's a militia primarily, but it's also a massive economic power.
So, I think Iran, I imagine sort of Iran looking more like a Pakistan or
Algeria in sort of a place where a military cast, if you will, they will have
the important role.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjswM-ULksU44RF5G1LPwV37BF9kL-79nKWD54qBHiT-NUlhnXMVhnrcbDXvK_IXZRBDUH27OQOCoF1GjIqeMPoouTc7fd229CYJ5P6M6dskFyWZjdlyj7Y6cBQhJKNkmX6jF5XBMvSOA_Y1G-kX3jYcW8OjVVL6ZQt2WFQo7cekEQRKru7b74tmAc95xw/s624/IRGC-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="414" data-original-width="624" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjswM-ULksU44RF5G1LPwV37BF9kL-79nKWD54qBHiT-NUlhnXMVhnrcbDXvK_IXZRBDUH27OQOCoF1GjIqeMPoouTc7fd229CYJ5P6M6dskFyWZjdlyj7Y6cBQhJKNkmX6jF5XBMvSOA_Y1G-kX3jYcW8OjVVL6ZQt2WFQo7cekEQRKru7b74tmAc95xw/s320/IRGC-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">Iran's Islamic
Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) attending a meeting with Iranian Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran. Credit: SalamPix/ABACAPRESS.COM via PA Images<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Now, the diplomats that you mentioned are, to be clear,
when I say pragmatists, I also actually do mean some of these military leaders are
in fact pragmatist. They care about lining their own pockets and they care
about economic growth and they don't want Iran to be sanctioned and isolated
and hated by everyone inside and outside Iran. So that's what is going to drive
some sort of a pragmatic politics on their part<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/ZW0NHaoGD4lbdybHDqNU0C8C0ViiOCoec0rfYWqnX-BNg4qbKawCK3WVQDpiO8oLuR0h76spEu_vL4o05gls2POYjaQ?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1292.71"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:21:32</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But the diplomats that you mentioned are one of the
fascinating things for me looking at a variety of diplomats of Iranian
diplomats, diplomats of the Islam Republic who are basically showing a lot of
discontent with harmony. This is a very sort of delicate point because the
Islamic Republic was founded in 1979, but Iranian diplomacy, if you're a
diplomat of Iran, you didn't just become parrot of the regime immediately
necessarily, and you weren't just following this idol, ideology. Iranians, as
you can see from me and others, we have a very strong sense of our nation, and
I'm sure you've had this experience of seeing it with Iranians, right? Doesn't
matter whether you are a sort of dissident in Europe or you are someone in
Iran, you have a strong sense of nation.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/_PAn88tRMC9XAak5xMEh0Fp_vp3_CrQEi-xm7SANrOrMHle1Jy4XbUZnhOhc6JyF8W0ozlt2NS3vwRSyxNpvtP4In5w?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1349.11"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:22:29</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">So, the Iranian diplomats wanted to follow a
traditional sense of Iranian national interest. And if you see, even during
Islamic Republic, for example, let's say in the conflict between Azerbaijan and
Armenia, I mean Iran has often played a role that you can't say it's
ideological or in support of Islamist revolutionary ideas. It's sort of
traditional Iranian foreign policy sort of national interest rules, whereas
they (the diplomats) see that that has dissipated on under Khamenei especially
in the last years. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">They're not happy that Iran is a supporter of Hamas
that is banking, not just that it's supporting Hamas, but it's banking so much
on it that it is helping Russia against Ukraine, that they're very unhappy
about that. But this also shows you there's sections of establishment who are
unhappy about the results of Khamenei, and that's why I sort of mentioned the
diplomats. Now, yes, some of them, many of them, in the future of Iran can form
a very different group than let's say people coming out of IRGC, right?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/HV8P4OxevrfpJ1_ezZxtD_PTbczLjrtyUbLdGnQpj_RL_6zMkXcDbHr1wNdlI_0tPPKqmQnuAGW4Kxc7uo3T2j6Q2ps?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1412.14"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:23:32</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister eternally, you
think, I mean, may want to have political ambitions, (even if) he always says
he doesn't. He would never run for anything, but if he was going to have
political ambitions, I think frankly he probably would be good at it. He
definitely has come with some, obviously a lot of us don't buy much from him,
but anyways, he definitely can come with some, yeah, so variety of former
officials of the regime, whether it's diplomats, whether it's those who are in
more economic positions or in politics can have some sort of a future in the
post-Khamenei era as they vie for power. But those who hold the guns and power
currently are the IRGC folks, so it's likely that they'll be the ones sort of
running the game for a while. They're the ones who are organized.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3mEhBQn5pFmS4UijomeQqBLhby0Q5RYvv55gfIJaYUUWP_5eBqSZuff7nPoPG34GHHh1kSaosR0B1KcHXe1z5zUkulqtESDqusnIHWe74ov6BiJIndi7TwWSzlqlpbgxGsT78rzA2DAN6xUqTjz63-F2Oth7nHxINVUJJVNQwDoQUvgCXbjx7GlXCyDE/s624/Javad%20Zarif.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="394" data-original-width="624" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3mEhBQn5pFmS4UijomeQqBLhby0Q5RYvv55gfIJaYUUWP_5eBqSZuff7nPoPG34GHHh1kSaosR0B1KcHXe1z5zUkulqtESDqusnIHWe74ov6BiJIndi7TwWSzlqlpbgxGsT78rzA2DAN6xUqTjz63-F2Oth7nHxINVUJJVNQwDoQUvgCXbjx7GlXCyDE/s320/Javad%20Zarif.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Iran's Former
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif gestures during a press conference in
Tehran. Credit: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images, FILE</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/V1yenQSGjMtaSaXw1L3DJXI92FAUy0cimNsTMdemKC46ldJCKwefz6-_vtOvOz8f1Kd8xGEopO1FSjk32B_z70cQYqU?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1463.45"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:24:23</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">What's also interesting is that the people you're
talking about are already now or for some time been publicly expressing their
dissent and their criticism. So, it's not just an assumption of what these
people say. They're actually willing to go out and say it.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/7CNBOwZPcRlQvJ6NGgbmc7X-icvPvbsCfJ6Zn8PuQzZbp46KOL_EubS2Ur05KCEHv1B38CfrK6-cKuQQ7dITrfgQ-Ac?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1484.96"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:24:44</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Absolutely. Yeah. I mean it's very interesting in a
regime like Iran, because there's actually a lot of this discontent that's
being spoken about, so I'm not even talking about the circle of dissent. It
keeps getting wider in a way the Supreme Leader permitted. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The opposition, people like me who oppose the Islamic
Republic, obviously we are nowhere near power. There's no way we can even
publish newspapers and all that. In Iran, then those who are, let's say
reformists or loyal opposition critiques of the Islamic Republic, they've been
effectively booted out of parliament. They don't have a public political life,
but inside the conservative and ultra conservative camp, no matter how much you
exclude, right? Still, there's a lot of fighting against the corruption of this
or that individuals or for different policies. I mean, when things are so bad,
you have to blame someone.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/MwlJn4gXi06g2Dal_gQG5gXSGpYFtHcKD7oayg9REQWKwGoAGtNkDa610M-UCPlVlMyyXQA0YoaIW3IDXl-G5TjTaDg?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1542.35"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:25:42</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The thing is, Iran has a declining economy, which I
think is a key of everything. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">By the way, none of the discussions we had really
would've meant much, if I'm honest with you, if Iran was doing economically
very well. People don't like to admit that. I would ask my students, would you
prefer to live in a poor country or democratic country? And a lot of them
always say, oh no, I would live poor, but free. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But the reality is when the economy is bad, it really,
that's sort of fundamental change, and you realize how bad the Iranian economy
is, right? The GDP per capita of Iran now in real terms, significantly less
than, and I don't have the numbers in front of me, but significantly less than
10 years ago by some estimates, I think it's like a third of 10 years ago.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/R0w6fjIkwRanktDrPyZ-wCpJCcp7sURtaJBLlsH6Yd2mPwn2r9aM9jr5aGbg0pX53GBuFOQp4TKOMj8mhpbkAYpXB-M?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1591.52"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:26:31</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">This is crazy. Imagine you're living standard falling to a third in just 10 years,
so you have to blame someone. So, yes, there's tons of those who are always
attacking each other and who are always expressing criticisms. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">As I said, the foreign policy in support of Hamas or
support of Russia and Ukraine is being critiqued by, not by people like me, but
by leading former diplomats or establishment figures, public intellectuals,
those types inside Iran, and this is after prisons are full of thousands of
people who are there because they're predicting, but still people are still
making the criticisms. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">And I think the other thing I'll tell you is that look,
just if you get outside of immediate sort of political common atheists, common
that there are, if you are honest and sober, if you are someone Iran who really
cares about Iran, Iranians care about their country. Usually they like to sort
of have this state of Iran discussions often, right? It's very clear to
everybody that we are in some sort of a very deep crisis, I think, and many
others agree with me that this is the worst Iran has been since easily a
hundred years ago.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/APEGBR3YCRlX9sCf5XET-YGPeR0-DWded-JVDlV9lm7VncxdpdO-05CjjBlZWbV1wxmBoeRn5YyB1QNsDS_sLKEi9nQ?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1670.22"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:27:50</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">So, naturally, when you're in conditions like this,
people are voicing critique publicly. It's just that usually in order to not
get into trouble, regimes like this, afford this, you can critique everything
and be like, oh, of course the supreme leader would agree with me. He doesn't
want this, right? <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Because that's how you save yourself, himself also,
this is one rule of dictators. Mao Zedong also did the same thing. I guess you
control everything, and yet you always act as an opposition leader, right? So, in
this Maoist moment, if you will, he is always waging a revolution against the
regime like saying, we need to renovate things and things are not being done
well, even though he is really micromanaging even the smallest decisions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/BVr9MkDsAunIb8aaZ4POyBspJPAhxoz-D6D0rNMp1q36ZMSD-UMNL3HFxqD80H_DDffrc8DZWjCcP2sKuxwO6U7uBGo?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1718.94"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:28:38</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Presumably the notion of change will also depend on who
the next supreme leader will be among those touted as potential successors. Are
there those that would be more supportive than others?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi </span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/PxGs4BFFxQzc1aWGW1ZjQgXTMOejTul-XDY7l02DlbfciED7M4L9LI3ZBr-Oq-lWMAH3ZBxbpQ95XnQK-OYsky9aM_c?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1741.44"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:29:01</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The next supreme leader is most likely going to be a
very weak figure who won't wield much power. That's sort of my two cents or my
guess. This is also a state of the art for the last few years, if you have
Iranian analysts getting together after a couple of drinks or whatever,
everyone likes to predict who will succeed. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">So, my line here is that it basically, it's going to be
a weak figure or perhaps a leadership council. It would need to require
constitutional change for that to happen. But in the first constitution of the
Islamic Republic, there was a possibility of a leadership council, and then
this was gotten rid of in the current version, but they can change it again.
Let me tell you that the supreme leader is a very strange position, right?
Political scientist Said call the Islamic republic’s constitution, the platypus
of humanity’s constitutional development because it's a very strange position.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/8Ej5lDemDEJIRM8bns8GE1zXrenwaAfm1D-yUYVXrBMkm7L5GvxQXcADxRSFlhMzDbT12w4m0CJx2j3KuuGTlwFnI_U?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1799.59"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:29:59</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">It's closest analog. It's the philosopher king in
Plato's Republic, right? It's this idea that this wise man can rule over
everything, but in effect, of course, it becomes a sort of broader indicator. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Look, the reality is there's no one, there's no cleric
that has the charisma or political expertise or kind of figure who could
replace Khamenei as a convincing supreme leader. All the major candidates died.
So, the most likely thing in my opinion is that it will be very weak, clear,
and others will run the show until eventually they might even get rid of the
position basically. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">So, I think Khamenei will be the last real supreme
leader of the Islamic RepublicI should tell you that the hottest rumor for some
years now, and especially in recent couple of years, is the possible candidacy
of Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, and I personally don't buy it.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/KT_1SFwIYdS26I2hMsE885ISzMCO0WfpRXIABZ5m8TeDc6iD26kdw0CmXsJD0vjLGo6U9Q4oC8fUpgLiJBDMmc2VAR4?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1865.35"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:31:05</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">I don't think they'll be stupid enough to try to go
with that. I think, I mean, put yourself in place of all these IRGC leaders,
all this sort of variety of people who are of power in the Islamic Republic. Do
you really want to, after all these years of answering Khamenei, do you really
want to answer his son who has no qualifications you can really speak of? <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Sure. He's like a relatively, relatively informed
cleric. He's teaching in the home seminary and all that, but I don't think
they'll go with it. I don't think they'll accept it. And also, it's like the
irony, it's one thing for (Egypt’s Hosni) Mubarak to put his son forward for
power, but for revolution that is all about Islam and justice and blah blah, to
then just turn out into a new monarchy with Khamenei as the ruling family. It's
a little too much on the nose, I think. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/ayjgcUc8td9RlnkhWbwZikpN-ejgB4uwkBa_TcyfWB12biNR_TF8ey-2Dt5YYEBF3GD2QLERpXVwprkxd5rbaUf3wQU?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1924.6"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:32:04</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">And to be fair to Mojtaba has emphatically denied that
he has any ambition to succeed his father. But coming back to what change may
look like, it strikes me that we've seen hints of change, at least in terms of
foreign policy in recent month. For example, at the Islamic and Arab Emergency
Summit in Riyadh last November, Iran adopted a hardline position in the
preparatory talks, but then signed off on a final statement that endorsed a
two-state solution to the Israeli Palestinian conflict. Also, Iran has not
categorically rejected a potential Saudi recognition of Israel, but said that a
Saudi Israeli alliance against Iran would be a red line.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/HQ-nWLHnFr_JbljTpHnZ2owXEZsyKVHGnZrqWKZQMp-kCr2D_AOE-N1T09DRU5rMKsZoX557UP3e0YVRkbw-le-FKdg?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=1976.36"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:32:56</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">So, the Iranian foreign policy establishment still does
have the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to use relatively pragmatic language at
times. The first thing we should remember is that the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs does not run Iran's foreign affairs, right? None of the major diplomats
will be running the region are in any shape or form answerable to the foreign
minister. Don’t take my word for it, the prime minister has said this
repeatedly. He just repeated it a couple of weeks ago in an interview. Others
have said it, the Minister of Foreign Affairs is not really the one running the
show, and that's part of the problem. By the way, this is symptomatic of how
many rule, right? What Kamenei has done is that he's built a parallel estate
effectively, which runs things. He’s even built a parallel parliament, even
though the Parliament is super dominated by ultra conservatives effectively.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/YlAd8LtLZLze28bfYIZpsUlBY6cNg_TfUZTSnqM-3AH8AAQj59Df43kiKTeAHs1b6QVC0tDmD3cTDZWqgeMbaMrilrU?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2027.54"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:33:47</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Now he has high councils, a high council for cyberspace, a high council
for the economy, and they are the ones who pass the laws. But I think what that
shows you is things that you mentioned like that, oh, they wouldn't object
necessarily to a resolution that would implicitly or explicitly endorse a two-state
solution or what they'd say about potential a Saudi Israel recognition. It
shows that there are definitely elements in the Iranian establishment that are
happy to be more pragmatic about it. The reality of all of this is, I mean, we
can talk about a specific issues, but if I just give a broad picture, the
reality of it is Iran, again, I think it's very important to remember that Iran
is an ancient civilization. I know everyone is sort of tired of hearing this of
Iranians saying it, but it really does matter because Iranians see themselves
that way, right?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/UeaQsY6_I_37MCp7PTTSNW_PD8adKIS5ym4FRKrvrxHWY67DqvMGZDbEPuEp7YWNcsKGYRmcQAouCLps_SZCgUgP7OE?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2086.97"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:34:46</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">We were a founding member of the League of Nations, the
only Muslim country as a founding member of the League of Nations. We were in
fact in the Council of the League of Nations. We were founding member of the
United Nations. So, when Iranians, whether on a popular level or on
policymaking level at some point, think of their country, they're often
thinking of Iran, right? They're not thinking of first the Palestinian cause or
first the Israelis. They're thinking of Iran. They're Iran-centered in this way
and on that basis, it's not that strange that it doesn't, from the Iranian
national interest, frankly, it doesn't make sense for us to be very one-sided
in any conflict in the region. It doesn't make sense for us to be very
one-sided either for Israel or Palestine. Same with Azerbaijan and Armenia. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/RiCtRw5kP7zMh-IZCs0ojmLGdvRAsP3rHKFkxK0VqADUtcJdSGewVUcCYum6apTwfg5JzyRxQi_obX77ll1pm9ZkVZI?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2142.69"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:35:42</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">And that's why in many ways it has backed Armenia. My
point is not this Iran centeredness and the priority of Iranian national
interests means that there are many who think Iran should play a much more
constructive role in this region. And a part of the reality is that today no
Arab state, not one fights against Israel, doesn't fire a single bullet against
Israel. When I teach the Arab Israeli conflict, I usually tell my students that
effectively we know the Arab-Israeli conflict mostly ended in 1979 (when Egypt
signed the first Arab peace treaty with Israel). It's a Palestinian-Israeli
conflict that continues, but Arab states are not fighting Israel since 1979.
Ironically, Iran was born in 1979 and it carries the mountain and it just
doesn't make sense for us. Basically, why is it that Iran, which is not an Arab
state, which doesn't have any reason to want to destroy Israel from the
perspective of its national interest, why should it be the only state that puts
itself in danger and that it's the only one firing shots at Israel against the
wishes of the Palestinian leadership, more importantly and the leadership of
every other Arab state.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/OcPYEtdz6rtfCGMdoi324DQtX1QsO3IG9lWolAAA7ZAwooS6KTFmhvZ5raVTJcni6LxQfJqfXRh7d4-92KMa-8yOK4I?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2225.61"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:37:05</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">So, I think a lot of Iranians, both on the popular
level as I said that, but even in foreign policy decision making levels think
we can't be, and they say this publicly, again, it's not just me saying it that
we can't be more Catholic than the Pope, right?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/2v2_lwEn4g5-AOaucilObMLluN02rZSX5VMlrV7kXgPk7l6Nxq3pV6H_TbiGC1Dbg3CfsaIGvXZaOESXVbpJF1Mynbw?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2241.92"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:37:21</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">We cannot be more Arab than Arabs, basically than an Arab
cause and has always long been, of course. And Iran can play an auxiliary role.
It can play a role of its own national interest, but it doesn't make sense for
it to act like it's a frontline state who's put all its eggs on the basket of
this goal of illusion of wanting to destroy Israel as its leadership repeatedly
says, and as all these militias that it supports say.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Whereas in effect, when you look at alternative, (Turkish
President Recep Tayyip) Erdogan is
pretty anti-Israel. He doesn't even cut diplomatic relations with Israel and
none of the Turkish Islamists, it's very interesting. Islamists have been in
power since 2003. They've never, in the worst moments when Israel killed almost
a dozen Turkish peace activists, they still didn't, they suspended, but didn't
entirely cut diplomatic relations with Israel. Not to mention trade ties, and
we can bring other examples.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWjDFjOBPvdwrdZD3tOhEuDTt4VjBwnLufZwgnNjk_wfEQ1JggTVpXk0xRhwr7oeFJlvbxfuWX7SKdZ-sS-i95yzhAFKq4mgVJerg7eb0ulltVr6isxSL_YCtmCRW92erSP08qZV8uOald2wmosIjHvQqkK8U7c6NFs-PTXQPBnYsYWl1nVqsS5GnRryE/s1430/Erdogan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="954" data-original-width="1430" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWjDFjOBPvdwrdZD3tOhEuDTt4VjBwnLufZwgnNjk_wfEQ1JggTVpXk0xRhwr7oeFJlvbxfuWX7SKdZ-sS-i95yzhAFKq4mgVJerg7eb0ulltVr6isxSL_YCtmCRW92erSP08qZV8uOald2wmosIjHvQqkK8U7c6NFs-PTXQPBnYsYWl1nVqsS5GnRryE/s320/Erdogan.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt; text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Turkish President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Credit: AP Photo/Francisco Seco)<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">So, this is to say that many in Iran see that Iran
should have its own policy and it should prioritize itself, and it should not
lend, you cannot lend a foreign policy of a country of 80 million people to some ideological goal
somewhere. You should prioritize the wellbeing of your own citizens and peace
in the region, and I think it's very likely that this is the sort of direction
of change that you'll see in the future of Iran after Khamenei.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/ObJK9Krw_f39YpR2CvBvQwf28YQtwV-8aqRSXL8ON1yHdQlqNDiyHGd7mSIP6xU5RfbHdXoXSPpFlrAi_8Yyld_oblQ?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2341.3"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:39:01</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Before we come back to the issue of change, it's one
thing just to add to what you said about Iranian identity. It is of course a
fact that Iran is only one of three Middle Eastern states with maybe Israel
four with a very deep seated sense of identity, and certainly Israel accepted
here with a history of empire alongside Turkey and Oman, which really says
something about, or reemphasizes what you were saying about Iranian identity. I
want to just for a moment, dwell on the Palestinian issue, and it strikes me
that what support for the Palestinians or what Iranians feel or this regime
feels support should be for the Palestinians, helps the regime basically
maintain a facade, a revolutionary facade, even if the revolutionary zeal in
the revolution itself is long vanished, would you think that would be an
accurate analysis?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/9OKybiMDKmwuOvoJy3dp9JJzO8uKKfk4zMvtEroYxvvaDqpH_AX47Qsb1z2iKwNJ-sC9sKePTMb_SXZ-OLLRfmiKn-w?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2413.93"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:40:13</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">I think yes, in many ways, yes. The way I put it is
when you think about Islamic Republic, I put yourself in place of ho. Ho is a
genuine revolutionary. He, he's been a revolutionary all his life since he
twenties. He went many years to jail and internal exile, and he fought for this
revolution. He was among its founders of the Islam Republic, and then he's led
it since 1989. What achievements do you have no real achievement to speak of in
terms of Islamic Republic has not created much of a better life in Iran. His
achievement is that Islam Republic has endured, you can say that, but it's not
in a good shape. But one thing you can say is that yes, it has built a
multinational army, an impressive multinational army that does fight against
Israel, right? Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, Hamas and Palestinian
Islamic Jihad, a variety of accumulation.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtRXQZbvcoN2o_W53OiRW-SvFazaatp0Frn9hX7WnXkwsAFMg03fd4MxcsiYiA9h0b5Udc3bTz7vbRVEr7qC-fosfdKyBnKIkcdU8DwY3eUdajFXSFiJSX8EdR8nlMeONiDklEc9a3hqNYGM5oAFPDP8VAAppSjg4WFk2ths3juHdZoCnjUV_xw0_BX6Y/s1430/Hezbollah-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="953" data-original-width="1430" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtRXQZbvcoN2o_W53OiRW-SvFazaatp0Frn9hX7WnXkwsAFMg03fd4MxcsiYiA9h0b5Udc3bTz7vbRVEr7qC-fosfdKyBnKIkcdU8DwY3eUdajFXSFiJSX8EdR8nlMeONiDklEc9a3hqNYGM5oAFPDP8VAAppSjg4WFk2ths3juHdZoCnjUV_xw0_BX6Y/s320/Hezbollah-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">Hezbollah fighters take part in a military parade. Credit:
AFP<o:p></o:p></span></p><br /><p></p><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/fyRIqYAJrKdp2Z_I0ni1i7K85APVvh3U1GneukhWVHg-EDnK11BcuV-8CEkfBMc5LAlve9OdN25MyVSBa-fLYrdXJrU?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2469.91"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:41:09</span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">These are all the ones, as I said, not a single Arab
state fires a bullet against Israel, but all of these groups are so it is not
just a facade. The reality is that this project does have some reality. There
is this, the access of resistance exists after all, and it's funded and headed
by the Islamic Republic, and it's something to be proud of if you are into that
sort of thing. Right? After all, there were people in the system of London who
were shouting in support of Houthis, unfortunately. So the point is you can
look at this and be proud of it. The problem with it though is that, as I said,
it doesn't have much support inside Iran because it's just hard to convert an
entire population with a strong sense of national identity to this particular
Islamist Zionist sort of line. It's very hard for them to buy into this.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/0EOkLSl83mQNTHs7-Cr2FARO25zIdUDQj9cbn0F8kAiUASk6YdsoyGKZ95FST77limxF4LE74aklaeiLdZxBVemxpXo?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2535.32"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:42:15</span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">It's hard for most people to buy into any ideology for
an entirely entirety of a nation, but in this case, they see it as
diametrically opposed. It's not clear how the access of resistance is serving
Iranian interest. It looks like for Iran, it has brought economic isolation,
international isolation, declining a standard of living. We being hated on
around the world, having to live under the sanctions and without advancing any
of our national interests. So there is not much support for it inside Iran. So
I hope it's clear what I mean. So it's not a facade in terms that it's a
general revolutionary project, and yes, if you are a member of Hezbollah in
Lebanon, you might really be happy that you are part of this. Although what I
should add to this though, what I should add to this is that not only it hasn't
brought a good life for Iranians, it also hasn't brought a good life for
anybody else.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/j0cm0KPAKKsrXIXtVK2jNlgNftyjyC2ZGzlsMRvndpQC6wHGAMvmtkkLKPrkjgK4aZHRqTAdylRVkL-qvVTvmDV4yEI?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2591.07"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:43:11</span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">I mean, look at all these countries that I mentioned.
None of these Hezbollah is hated across Lebanon effectively, including by many
of the Shia, and I hope I don't exaggerate it, I don't want to be naive, but
it's clear that Hezbollah is not some very popular group in Lebanon anymore.
The way that it was when it was fighting Israeli occupation, actually in the
sort of nineties and maybe even a bit after that, but just not anymore because
Lebanon is effectively instead of collapse in Iraq, these militias have really
ruined the sovereignty of the country. And similar examples in other places in
Yemen at best, they're part of this tapestry of civil war in that country.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/dI99PglyWPHwcXz1t4iJRJBCDvtbt_7-GLEAKIuoDhleb-1fymbk9mTspp-YhFHI4hApBxoJf6sSwGv6H_qqrupNu04?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2634.92"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:43:54</span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">So they really haven't provided a model that would be
really attractive, and that would become sort of a pool of attraction. So it
could be a source of inspirations for some revolutionaries who are interested
in these groups, but really not a sustainable source of supporting in any of
this country. I should also add that as my friend Danny Postel has argued acts
of resistance effectively plays a counter-revolutionary role actually, not just
revolutionary by which he means that effectively it's become part of a status
quo, ironically, in countries like Iraq and Lebanon, right? The axis of
resistance, part of the status quo. So it actually has to actively fight
against change. So the Iraqis had a mass movement in 2019 against these
conditions, as did the Lebanese. So these so-called revolutionary forces are
actually country revolutionary is stopping the aspirations of the people in
this country is for effective national governance and a sovereign country and
an opposing and opposition to the sectarian system that has really defined them<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/quZnfowNw0j7VJ73wfVpd9yXbsvQj8pSisPTJC2TCilWUhF5tfIbI-auC_0roOaXRaxiKzZWujhMR-FF_CHUmVRaq8o?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2715.03"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:45:15</span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Coming back to the issue of change or pragmatism or
whatever one wants to call it, perhaps you can describe how this will manifest
itself on the one hand, domestically. You spoke a little bit about it
internationally, but maybe you can take that a little bit further in terms of
what it would mean for Iran's relationship with the axis of resistance, its
various non-state partners, but also in terms, for example, of the nuclear
issue,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Arash Azizi</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/ZaxJwLAi9D1ccv4ul-gwntc95A74RPQ_Fs0tPB5hy8sI0HcOPJzH3phPBJz6smDcyduQFmxWUX78nXwny8U7ND2SJnQ?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2754.99"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:45:54</span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">So, you mentioned domestic and international, right?
Sort of the consequences in other words.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/IYevzqVBqxSitCY61AjSGRFGmE0-UbyPXS1cyZl_MfX27HBCnnTTkUOXMGqZPpLhg5eqDWf4nGQP7HYUkR_ym-FikIQ?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2759.34"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:45:59</span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">You spoke about Israel, but there are also, of course,
the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>issues of the relationship with
Hezbollah, with the Iraqi groups, with the Houthis and Yemen, with Hamas, and
there is of course the always lingering issue of Iran's nuclear program.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Arash Azizi</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/RI_B3O7kbu6zQ-MohpXoRhCJjQQS2_8KDrqYDO4UuxcMD0b2lWeIVkvZZvbRK7TQ3OD_bqGqdVTRDwOaFvVb2gGj91o?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2781.69"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:46:21</span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">And there's also a question of domestic policy, and as
you want, we can talk about that. What do I mean? Let me make a prediction
again, sort of what I think this pragmatic sounding post-Khamenei Iran is going
to do in relation to all of, and I have since I wrote the oped, I've had
interesting debates with different friends actually about this. Some of whom
said they agree regarding domestic policy, but maybe not so much about regional
policy because the IRGC is proud of its achievement, so they'll continue it. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">So I think, look, they are, they're not going to
immediately cut ties to all these militias because obviously, well, once you
have it right, it's not a bad thing to have a few groups linked in different
countries that you can use. But I think their direction is the general
direction is going to be, so with the nuclear program and in regards to these
militias is going to be coming into some sort of regional and international
agreement that can end the sanctions on Iran, end the Iranian isolation, and
give a bit of a breeding space to Iran.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/a29-TK6aqiRnmHBCZenWYpCEiVMqe4NVJGvIbj_ma92bDy8HkZK6bjDaC49PtXVI8oDOY8Al_trykk-RSI15H5wb9Qo?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2859.34"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:47:39</span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The nuclear question is a bit dormant right now.
Actually, if you look at just the last intelligence estimate that came out of
the United States, they basically are saying Iran is not continuing, which is
interesting, right? They're not crazy. They know how to pace themselves on this
question. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">So I think they'll try to come to some sort of an
agreement even in status quo if they want the sanctions to be lifted, no matter
who is in the White House, they'll try to do some sort of negotiations. Maybe
it wouldn't be as splashy as 2014, 2015 and nuclear deal like that, but quietly
make some agreements, draw back the nuclear program enough so that these
sanctions can be lifted. There will be an agreement with Saudi Arabia, so
they'll come into some sort of a peace agreement basically. And by peace, I mean
they'll basically say, look, we're not going to rock this boat too much.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/DR1HlQAkUIYKNaEi6PY4fZKomzVSEEyo6dRNH0wZ1gTkn9YAVbtrZbYGRSUb9omfTiQ0Ro-yNpjaJWw1tJC_t21F5WM?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2914.51"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:48:34</span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">We're not going to threaten to destroy Israel time and
time again. But given, obviously there should be a place for Hezbollah and
Lebanese Shiites, after all, generally in the Lebanon and structures in Yemen,
there can be a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia where there's some sort of a
solution there after all, even without the change of the Islamic Republic. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">There are elements of this already, the relationship
between Iran and the militias, it's interesting. Even now, the regime of Iran
and the militias effectively is usually not the case that Iran says go attack
all the time. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">In fact, it's usually the opposite. It's to say
basically it's always trying to restrain them. And now again, we have the US
intelligence estimate. Thank God the United States has a system in which the
intelligence is not super partisan and is released in a way that there's some
objectiveness to it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/tDPbhK5u6NMYWnTkEuBNrmDp7nc58TH4UygmD8QH8iGsR232OxJ8xWwrns8zYYdaAzz40Yo_LOXtT57vmPjwfyLP3_M?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=2972.56"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:49:32</span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Because if you really read the detail, they're very
clear that Iran didn't know about October 7th, right? They didn't know about
it, and it's unlikely that they would've encouraged something like this out of
the fear of getting into this conflict. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">So, I think the important difference would be that the
goal of building a powerful Iranian state that will have its own interest will
take precedence over this revolutionary ideological project of building a group
of militias that are leading Iran right now. And I think that will change, and
I think the nature of these militias in this country would also change after
all. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">One thing that is a very delicate thing for us to all
remember, let's forget Palestine for a second, but in the case of Iraq, Yemen
and Lebanon, yes, these militia all have a revolutionary anti-Israel sort of
Islamic ideology, but they are also sectarian actors and they get much of their
sustenance in these countries as sectarian actors, right?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/EDPFYVnRkJCbBTwko-12OUwv3mxUg7aD01luPybqXgHpuP86RURc0WWGOl4LiszCgLgvIOQ9VORhF0Sk0A2xTxpiof8?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=3041.18"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:50:41</span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The Lebanon Hezbollah wouldn't exist if not for the
fact that the Lebanese Shia had a history of disenfranchisement. And so they
sometimes channel this energy into the communist party as in the past. Then
they channelled the Amal movement, and then they end up channeling to
Hezbollah. You know what I mean?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">So they'll always continue in some ways, but when the
tune changes in Teran, their tune is also going to change. And in terms of
Palestine, again, the real story here, of course, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic
Jihad, these are not Iranian groups. They have their own origins. They're not
even Shia. They're always looking for foreign sponsors. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The history of Palestinian militancy is that they're
always looking for different foreign sponsors, it used to be Saddam or Muamar Ghaddafi,
Soviet, China at some point, and in the last few decades it's been the Islamic
Republic. So, the nature of that is going to change once Iran goes on a more
pragmatic route.<o:p></o:p></span></p><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicCQ8uvD-LN0fs4Tje8cMdGGHUNuxNruuSQNmRgK3noDsy98NOuV6NdF8F6eFmvvYPzT3A3ag9jf6Mn0-ajqavOTHhMeQtVmr10DgsMMZ1RID_pn-PNWopvAgOflPmDWfK756wEbrkLySeGO0libl7B1D7xAuvy1ZaCoSbXgS5aJQyCBTcXbynO6gOey8/s624/Gaddafi.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="350" data-original-width="624" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicCQ8uvD-LN0fs4Tje8cMdGGHUNuxNruuSQNmRgK3noDsy98NOuV6NdF8F6eFmvvYPzT3A3ag9jf6Mn0-ajqavOTHhMeQtVmr10DgsMMZ1RID_pn-PNWopvAgOflPmDWfK756wEbrkLySeGO0libl7B1D7xAuvy1ZaCoSbXgS5aJQyCBTcXbynO6gOey8/s320/Gaddafi.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Former Libyan
leader Moammar Gaddafi. Credit: AP/Ben Curtis</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><br /></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/cmNgfeBvrw39EpFwa46kw3ugrRx7W0ABT8a_g6H7GdG8MkXQW932i5mzIARjtSbKBT3QZxYfPR4CyH7OqjZI48KjZUk?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=3107.3"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:51:47</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Would you see the fact that Iran is trying to ensure
that support for Hamas and the actions of its non-state allies like Hezbollah
or the Houthis in Yemen stops short of
sparking a regional configuration that could involve the United States? Is that
an indication of the change to come that you envision? And does it suggest that
there may be more common ground between technocrats, pragmatists, and
hardliners?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/9Vxq-ukV_sRnWqdx5RbteervH6AOVZqzJyeqtMwbgM3CO9nlTByZDOmy-blk_V3-SDmfRfT6DRNc4bT4LdquzRlrRAE?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=3139.76"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:52:19</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">I think it's a very good question. I think it shows a
couple of things. First of all, it shows that even now, Iran doesn't want to
get into a conflict or a war. Iranians don't want to do that. Not the
leadership, not the people. And they know that we can't afford it. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">We are not a society ready to go to a war in this
condition. They know it would have no real support in society. So even now
that's the case, and it does show that after all, we have to remember, my
argument isn't that there are a bunch of hard liners in power now they're going
to be replaced by technocrats, right? My argument is that a lot of these
so-called hard liners have a heavy
technocratic edge. It's just that in the current conditions, the constellation
of power around Khamenei is such that they play a role right now.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/AexzU224_L4kOoZW2hhfWllPLpbPXXUuVW6zzg2FjySey1J9Ox37rODLEYOFklNlaZNFUJ66gc5qEERUgKz7oj4Iy2s?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=3203.27"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:53:23</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">It is a bit of a risky proposition to make, and I do
sort of hedge this in the article by saying, I don't know if it is possible
that Khamenei dies and these people really mean all that they say, and they're
going to lead a new ideological Iran, and they're not technocrats or pragmatistss
after all. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">There are people who have written on Mahdism, and they
believe Mahdist Arian ideology. With all due respect, I don't really buy it. I
don't really think, yes, I know that Said Mohammed, whom I write about in some
of my work, this sort of military figure, I know he talks about the Mahdi all
the time and the hidden Imam, and I don't think they're serious about it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/AJdKvuNITi6MmZAVnQUD3-B9ty2r9UmYmlEVx2BghOHq6e4zIddQlSt9hwq01rsOAEmoEItTOmgkeHaxL5EXNYYtKmw?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=3249.97"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:54:09</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">I don't think it's true. I don't think it will hold,
although it's always a possibility. But yes, the argument is that even these
guys are effectively technocrats and pragmatics and its Khamenei who keeps the
revolutionary flame alive. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">My argument is really that, look, in 2019, in the 40th
anniversary of the Islam revolution, Khamenei gave a speech called the Second
Phase of the Revolution, and he basically says the second phase of the
revolution is going to be built by this young revolutionary. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">I basically think he has failed to build this young
revolutionary. He has failed to build the next level leadership that could
drive this revolution. And if you want to take a very broad view, you can say
this is the fate of revolutions that you cannot usually build a revolution
beyond a couple of generations. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Even in the Soviet Union, after a couple of
generations, these were apparatchiks, and after all, when communism failed,
most of them very happily transitioned into becoming sort of national elites in
these new republics. And there are many other examples that you can give. So, I
think that the Islamic Revolution is dead, and that's the next generation of
leaders will innovatively be more pragmatic.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">James M. Dorsey</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/23_im9pm_dplL9e2FDFbcbPujFLlahW1b0801pEe4NZ19BSftfXjaLk68jMhtzHNOGzLzsmFcgdB9NidtnYqqz-99Fw?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=3339.21"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:55:39</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">That takes us back to the beginning of this
conversation, and the question is, what makes today's Iran different to the
Iran of 1979 when the regime of the Shah was toppled by a popular revolt or the
2011 Arab revolts that initially succeeded in overthrowing four autocrats. So
why, in a sense, is it going to be that in Iran you envision a change that
comes from the top rather than the result of a popular revolt?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/QZoqP38cCNlHPOHj76bTMNYR8PWRbe68guEIwMFPsK1HKoVOtmH1FO_vKCaXBeSH4pT_DS4LxycJdG1ll-u-3qnpz08?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=3373.02"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:56:13</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">That's a great question. I think number one, as I said,
I still have hopes for popular revolts that will play a role, but I don't see,
I think the reason is in 79, you had the Shah who, what is common in 79 and
2011, frankly, the reason this dictator's fall is that they're the type of
people who run away.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The Shah doesn't even try when you really think about
it. Now, he had cancer, he wasn't feeling well. If you want to be very generous
to him, you can say he didn't want to kill his people. But the Shah is not the
kind of, he doesn't do any real resistance. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">It's actually very striking if you think about all the
options he had. And the Shah, by the way, if you look at his life, he's a
runner, right? This is not the first time in 1953, he runs away, couple years
late in 58, 59, he's basically ready to run away.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/R5GQZSXNOQCzI1H6bNY18kTREqoe7cEAWqIHqPIyBGqCGalPjvKKbqIsZjmCnDi4txoQlmsbk9FVVlM_DFjnUpH_vxI?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=3429.22"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:57:09</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">He is not one who wants to stay there and defend his
rule. So this is why the revolution wins in 79. This is one of the key reasons
that revolution wins in 79, is the lack of resistance on the part of the shop. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">I mean, 2011, it's also the case that a lot of these
dictators are, after all, they kind of run away early, right? So whether you
mentioned four, I guess you mean what's the Mubarak (of Egypt) and Ben Ali (of
Tunisia). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">They kind of resigned pretty sort of early. Ben Ali I
believe ran to Saudi Arabia, indeed. And then I guess you're talking about Saleh
in Yemen and Ghaddafi in Libya. But Ghaddafi was effectively overthrown by
foreign intervention. So that was pretty different, right? That's not in the
cards in Iran, and Saleh was the head of basically a civil war situation that dislodged
him from power.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/UIeIqA2_91Ehje59xJLUjrbzFPTtlGw-hndSJzDKgdV238r4_au9qUCpXoSOvIZPu-d9_LQR9y8xXwq4ceyyHzsE-4k?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=3480.4"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:58:00</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">So none of these situations exist in Iran because there
is no foreign intervention, thankfully. And there is not going to be unlike,
and you mentioned this at the beginning, and some uninformed, malicious Israeli
analysts wrote this in the Jerusalem Post recently. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Iran is not going to split into different ethnicities. Permanent
dreams that people have are not going to happen for Iran. Khamenei is not going
to give up power. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">So that's why I believe the change is the most likely
to come from the top in this way. And what is common with the Arab spring, if
you look at what happened in the Arab Spring, and Egypt is sort of a classic
case, people come out, there's this mass movements, they bring down the
government, and then it's the organized forces that run the show.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2-x7OJvtze1K2iFTeAzYC-1jjrpSEKm2adBLqHKF79f-KhHdqOVDoqVYlxWievKylK-znVXKKmuhaYoScm_7mZWDPMsqsfrbEQg7gNtZfcy5e30uTI-Jy8K0TJFqOP8BDoMGQpjVlNjVO81iqfHCAaJAbbOIqlxq217xwnpxw7PQpvz40O0Z1B2w9n_c/s624/Tahrir%20Cairo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="624" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2-x7OJvtze1K2iFTeAzYC-1jjrpSEKm2adBLqHKF79f-KhHdqOVDoqVYlxWievKylK-znVXKKmuhaYoScm_7mZWDPMsqsfrbEQg7gNtZfcy5e30uTI-Jy8K0TJFqOP8BDoMGQpjVlNjVO81iqfHCAaJAbbOIqlxq217xwnpxw7PQpvz40O0Z1B2w9n_c/s320/Tahrir%20Cairo.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">Cairo's Tahrir
Square, pictured in February 2011, has always been a focal point in Egypt for
protests. Credit: Mosa'ab Elshamy/Moment/Getty Images<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/EeztEfDAh--_187hhPy12KcATKImuwAif6ueTpe8bOL1kQ-OS9TRRtLGcSHFgpWD3QQMiQCIzlPZAkyxrrc8fZypwKs?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=3539.71"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">00:58:59</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">So, it's the Army and the Muslim Brotherhood that duke
it out over power. And 20 of my friends also had a Tahir Square, which is very
touching, but it's not going to change things. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">So unfortunately, I see the situation the same in Iran.
I don't see how the resistance movements and all that could come together to
get organized in time to be the beneficiary of the immediate change. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">My hope is though I'm not just the analyst, right? I'm
part of this as well. My hope is that we can cohere into an alternative so that
we can play a role in the next phase of this fight. And if one is to be more
hopeful, you would think if at some point the equilibrium of different power
centers in society is such that they'll allow for some of multiparty elections,
then a variety of Iranian progressives can continue that work, build a strong
voice, build their civil society, build political parties, and can affect
change in that way.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/Jlj6XJtTrcO7LsMqjQ60ouf7RJrYGOsHL1BGoUmRdm6CuswZotJea7e-FjZe-xY9V8lYd2OeM5_jye78SyabATQHpKo?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=3611.57"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">01:00:11</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">But it's going to be a long growth. It's not a short
growth. The idea that Iranians come and fall and the regime is replaced by a
democracy and then we are all happy ever after, unfortunately, it's not in the
cards, and the future of Iran is very scary to me. That's also the fact, right?
<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">There are terrible things that can happen, and that's
why I think we should be smart in what we advocate for and that we should
remember important values at every point. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Opposition to Iran breaking up, opposition to the
possibility of civil conflict, opposition to all form of foreign intervention.
It's very sad for me and very concerning. And that unfortunately opposition
figures have broken something that was a big taboo and they've effectively
called for United States or Israel to attack Iran. It would not be good. It
would not lead to anything good. It would not lead to any positive development
from any sane view. And anyone who advocates this, it's either malicious, insane,
or both.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">James M. Dorsey (</span><a href="https://www.rev.com/transcript-editor/shared/aOQ4aMMez4NMSOk3TC1X0ugLneN7J4XPOW7fhMiaDVgMg_uYU4XWR-cwvFMxzgPdBmZvlh-BtI5PrGTKoocMvpvJ_2Y?loadFrom=DocumentDeeplink&ts=3683.51"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">01:01:23</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash, time is not our friend, even though this has
been a fascinating and enlightening conversation, I learned a lot and I hope so
has our audience. Thank you for joining me on this show, and thanks to our
listeners and viewers. Please share any comments or questions you may have in
the comment section of this podcast on Substack, and please stay tuned for my
twice weekly episodes best wishes. Take care and see you soon. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Thank you for joining me today. I hope you enjoyed
today's column and podcast. The turbulent world with James M. Dorsey depends on
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of the subscription options. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Thank you. Take care and best wishes.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk161656664"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 106%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i></a><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 106%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 106%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 106%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi, The Shadow Commander: Soleimani, the US,
and Iran's Global Ambitions, Simon & Shuster, </span><a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Shadow-Commander/Arash-Azizi/9780861541171"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Shadow-Commander/Arash-Azizi/9780861541171</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 4pt 0cm 0cm;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 4.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arash Azizi, What Iranians Want: Women, Life, Freedom,
Simon & Shuster, </span><a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/What-Iranians-Want/Arash-Azizi/9780861547111"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/What-Iranians-Want/Arash-Azizi/9780861547111</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-86481771688733422292024-03-15T14:11:00.008+08:002024-03-15T14:11:33.474+08:00Biden may not have enough rope to push his vision of the Middle East<p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd_SaPIAFjv8THHoDi1puC-AhUSddB2PeLnGZPveT5z9UHk8rfPcOVOaGr6yNzfFLRW4s_Oh8rCzpNqQUbKrQbPvYkrzQ0G-upG_uzBN179khvn826jbfjd0WWZedcRb-zaKwJHqzdav521B37-swLIfpRW4q8fwwwkTkZLD14yJy8e8mVuChwxUMZDRM/s1280/Biden%20MEast%20Vision.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd_SaPIAFjv8THHoDi1puC-AhUSddB2PeLnGZPveT5z9UHk8rfPcOVOaGr6yNzfFLRW4s_Oh8rCzpNqQUbKrQbPvYkrzQ0G-upG_uzBN179khvn826jbfjd0WWZedcRb-zaKwJHqzdav521B37-swLIfpRW4q8fwwwkTkZLD14yJy8e8mVuChwxUMZDRM/s320/Biden%20MEast%20Vision.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">By James M. Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
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subscription options. Thank you.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p style="background: white; text-align: left;"><a name="_Hlk161397443"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To watch a video version of this story o</span></em></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161397443;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "DengXian Light"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">r listen to a audio track, please click </span></em></span><a href="https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/biden-may-not-have-enough-rope-to"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161397443;"><span style="font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "DengXian Light"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">here.</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161397443;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161397443;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161397443;"><em><span style="font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "DengXian Light"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></em></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161397443;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">This year’s US presidential
elections are not the only potential hurdle confronting President Joe Biden’s
multi-pronged vision for a Middle East peace once the Gaza war ends. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-b7FcTEdE3sg_3BBQFVTw4Ty9KjHxc4m-hFC-3O3fy1wEjPawyN_sufNlaVJsATZ6sEqX93-4_cZFfUH5O2aHR4umZhIWtCBKV1L-oBBGv8pEqKDP84HV-VeO0OZqLUrMSOWtXsYOD2PdLuPYl1bZmG8nDNyyQw650329DvUol0CFVb6_tucWrQmwCwc/s468/Biden-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-b7FcTEdE3sg_3BBQFVTw4Ty9KjHxc4m-hFC-3O3fy1wEjPawyN_sufNlaVJsATZ6sEqX93-4_cZFfUH5O2aHR4umZhIWtCBKV1L-oBBGv8pEqKDP84HV-VeO0OZqLUrMSOWtXsYOD2PdLuPYl1bZmG8nDNyyQw650329DvUol0CFVb6_tucWrQmwCwc/s320/Biden-2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="background: white; color: #747474; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 128;">US President Joe Biden. Credit:</span><span style="color: #747474; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 128;"> <span style="background: white; letter-spacing: -.1pt;">Greg Nash<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">So is Israeli intransigence,
the prospect of </span><a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">a long-term insurgency in
post-war Gaza</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">, and </span><a href="https://steverodan.substack.com/p/china-in-the-middle-east-a2e"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">increasing Saudi Chinese
technological cooperatio</span></a>n</p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The Biden administration is
pushing for </span><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/13/biden-israel-palestinian-statehood-grand-deal-middle-east-saudi-arabia-gaza-hamas/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">a multi-pronged comprehensive
Middle East deal</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> that
would not only end the war in Gaza but also produce a resolution of the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The deal would involve a
reformed Palestine Authority governing Gaza and the West Bank, a credible
pathway to an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, and Saudi
recognition of the Jewish state.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The plan doesn’t lack ambition
but the odds of all the pieces coming together are almost insurmountable,
certainly in the time left until the November US election, even if Saudi Arabia
has bought into the concept, albeit with a high price tag.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Assuming the price is right,
Saudi Arabia is interested in cutting a deal while Mr. Biden is in office. The
kingdom is not sure that a second Donald J. Trump presidency would meet Saudi
demands, particularly its insistence on a legally binding defense agreement
with the United States.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7uGtoxdQR-GxAW8mYCBT_-GXabpuxj-2qDqsx1dgFulnb30Z6Jb_nttJdDYNfkPaqsHoHaDSi_-kPMK7vH5pNCkClR-q8DBAQJ06NohXDt9oo9wSU_XgmY-h4ZJ-ZKxUrLjnvB9gURgVa7quF3_gAJIBUjY1YihG5KFZrlMJvNcQDL6EmmJ2zU-5UOx4/s1430/Trump-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="953" data-original-width="1430" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7uGtoxdQR-GxAW8mYCBT_-GXabpuxj-2qDqsx1dgFulnb30Z6Jb_nttJdDYNfkPaqsHoHaDSi_-kPMK7vH5pNCkClR-q8DBAQJ06NohXDt9oo9wSU_XgmY-h4ZJ-ZKxUrLjnvB9gURgVa7quF3_gAJIBUjY1YihG5KFZrlMJvNcQDL6EmmJ2zU-5UOx4/s320/Trump-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #747474; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 128;">Former US President
Donald Trump. Credit: Scott Eisen / Getty image<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Despite his catering to the
Saudis during his presidency, Mr. </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/saudi-oil-attacks-put-us-commitments-to-the-test"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Trump turned the moment the
kingdom needed US assistance into a business opportunity</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In response to </span><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/14/saudi-arabia-is-shutting-down-half-of-its-oil-production-after-drone-attack-wsj-says.html"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Yemeni Houthi attacks in 2019
on Saudi oil facilities</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> that temporarily knocked out 50 per cent of the kingdom’s
oil production capacity, Mr. Trump described the incident as a Saudi, not an
American problem, and offered to retaliate on behalf of the Saudis if they were
willing to foot the bill.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Saudi Arabia is not the only
player putting a price tag on a Middle East deal.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The United States has
indicated that Saudi Arabia would have to </span><a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/three-way-us-saudi-israeli-normalization-deal-might-be-tall-order"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">curtail its technological
cooperation with China</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> on return for a defence agreement.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Nevertheless, signalling interest in a deal,
Saudi media, much like Al Jazeera, the pioneer in </span><a href="https://twitter.com/Adhwan/status/1767253597694124299"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">airing Israeli voices</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> in Arab media and covering the Jewish state with
correspondents on the ground, have increasingly included Israelis in their
reporting on the Gaza war, despite the kingdom’s vocal condemnation of the
Jewish state’s war conduct.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Even so, the war has raised the price Saudi
Arabia insists on extracting from Israel and the United States in return for
diplomatic recognition.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In contrast to vague Saudi references to a
resolution of the Palestinian problem before the war, officials now insist on </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudis-foreign-minister-no-normal-israel-ties-without-path-palestinian-state-cnn-2024-01-21/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">a “credible and irreversible” pathway</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> to the creation of an independent Palestinian
state.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><a href="https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/new-poll-sheds-light-saudi-views-israel-hamas-war#:~:text=According%20to%20responses%2C%20the%20Saudi,role%20of%20the%20broader%20Arab"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Public opinion in the kingdom</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> and across the Muslim world
enraged by the Gaza war is one reason for the hardening Saudi position.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">However, an incident earlier
this week suggests that changing Saudi attitudes towards Israel and Jews may
not happen overnight.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">A delegation of the United
States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) curtailed a visit
to the kingdom </span><a href="https://www.uscirf.gov/release-statements/uscirf-leaves-saudi-arabia-after-government-official-insisted-chair-remove"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">after the group’s chairman, Rabbi
Abraham Cooper, was asked to remove his skullcap</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> during a tour of a heritage site, despite Saudi
Arabia’s projection of itself as a beacon of tolerant and ‘moderate’ Islam.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis7TPh6Tad-1BMU3bpfTP0Ybi166pJKUjE_9IV-5PiCjBTK5Fiq8f4KUWKghM5_pxIqGXiSTtDeO-KMSuwY1W3NiHyLnxc43LHBbBciHZyYt8gxr_HPWPzpk5LK-YdNC-dkmtdkMQX6JRqpqwgoga4fgPgjWcqmLl7agt0ciqmpsn0r2t52fEtRv2By9Q/s1430/Abraham%20Cooper.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1430" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis7TPh6Tad-1BMU3bpfTP0Ybi166pJKUjE_9IV-5PiCjBTK5Fiq8f4KUWKghM5_pxIqGXiSTtDeO-KMSuwY1W3NiHyLnxc43LHBbBciHZyYt8gxr_HPWPzpk5LK-YdNC-dkmtdkMQX6JRqpqwgoga4fgPgjWcqmLl7agt0ciqmpsn0r2t52fEtRv2By9Q/s320/Abraham%20Cooper.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="background: white; color: #747474; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 128;">Rabbi
Abraham Cooper. Credit: Yoshikazu Tsuno/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images</span><span style="color: #747474; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 128;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">The Saudi embassy in Washington said, “This
unfortunate incident was </span><a href="https://twitter.com/SaudiEmbassyUSA/status/1767596731150057785/photo/1"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">the result of a misunderstanding of
internal protocols</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">.” The embassy did not
say what those protocols are.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The United Arab Emirates
recently highlighted the sensitivity of relations with Israel when its state-owned
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and multinational oil and gas giant </span><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-adnoc-suspend-2-billion-092216645.html"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">BP suspended a US$2 billion bid</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> to buy a major stake in Israel’s NewMed Energy
company.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The UAE established relations with Israel in 2020
and has insisted it will maintain the relationship despite its criticism of
Israel’s war conduct.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">New Med, which owns a 45 per cent stake in
Leviathan, Israel’s biggest gas field, and 30 per cent of Aphrodite, located
off Cyprus, said the suspension was due to “uncertainty created in the external
environment.”</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">To be sure, Israel is no less in need of a sea
change in attitudes towards Palestinians for a pathway to a Palestinian state
to be credible and irreversible. That too is not going to happen overnight and
may not happen before Americans go to the polls. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Discriminatory attitudes towards Palestinians
have always been ingrained in Israeli society but have been on steroids since
Hamas’ October 7 attack.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">In addition, opposition to a Palestinian state,
particularly one that is not demilitarised, extends far beyond Israeli Prime
Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and its ultra-nationalist and
ultra-conservative coalition partners. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIUAf19T7m_DVAH0imvs9-EQUop3x65MhI_lpJEXkMXjrJ7kUJbgjsgTTrjmvVgksGE27gXBoOCxQbzvJVTxwMC705J1Q2g6QaIyt3Iu-l31SX3Md196Ymhowta8598IkJApqD00exmycD0inuuKg1k-J9ZFaEkTAdqGjwp9gdElpSsPfG2BevGs_Q1zk/s624/Netanyahu%20-5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="624" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIUAf19T7m_DVAH0imvs9-EQUop3x65MhI_lpJEXkMXjrJ7kUJbgjsgTTrjmvVgksGE27gXBoOCxQbzvJVTxwMC705J1Q2g6QaIyt3Iu-l31SX3Md196Ymhowta8598IkJApqD00exmycD0inuuKg1k-J9ZFaEkTAdqGjwp9gdElpSsPfG2BevGs_Q1zk/s320/Netanyahu%20-5.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #747474; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 128;">Israeli Prime Minister and Likud party
leader Benjamin Netanyahu. Credit: Amir Levy/Getty Images<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><a name="_Hlk161395730"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">While implicitly
highlighting the imperative of a political solution, this week’s US
intelligence’s </span></a><a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">Annual
Threat Assessment</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> also implicitly suggested that Hamas will remain
a player that will need to be taken into account in any peace process.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In
effect, the assessment suggested that Israel would not achieve two of its three
war goals: the destruction of Hamas and ensuring that Gaza no longer serves as
a launching pad for armed Palestinian resistance.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Similarly,
Israel’s third goal, the freeing of Hamas-held hostages is likely to be a
product of negotiations rather than military action.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Hamas
holds hostage some 136 people and bodies of captives killed in the war.
Negotiations on a ceasefire and prisoner exchange have stalled.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“Israel
probably will face lingering armed resistance from Hamas for years to come, and
the military will struggle to neutralize Hamas’ underground infrastructure,
which allows insurgents to hide, regain strength, and surprise Israeli forces,”
the assessment predicted.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">If
correct, continued Palestinian resistance is likely to stiffen Israeli
opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In
recognition of the likelihood that Hamas will remain a player, the Palestine
Authority has insisted that </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/18/palestinian-factions-to-meet-in-moscow-as-west-rejects-hamas-role-in-ruling-gaza-after-war"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">the
group would have to be part of the mainstream Palestinian polity</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">,
even if it is not represented in a post-war transition government.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
Authority’s insistence is one reason why Mr. Netanyahu opposes taking control
of post-war Gaza. Instead, Mr. Netanyahu wants tribal and clan leaders to
administer the Strip under Israeli tutelage.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In a
first step, Israel was believed to be attempting to </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-officials-mull-arming-some-gaza-civilians-aid-security-crumbles-report-2024-03-08/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">recruit
Gazan clansmen to provide security for aid convoys</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">
entering Gaza.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Bowing
to US and international pressure, Israeli military spokesperson Rear-Admiral
Daniel Hagari said this week that Israel, accused of using “</span><a href="https://twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1767574180273213941"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">starvation
as a weapon for war</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">,” planned to </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-03-13/ty-article/.premium/israel-changes-its-policy-on-supplies-to-gaza-intends-to-flood-in-aid-idf-says/0000018e-390e-db12-a9ef-fbff14c50000"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">"flood"
the Strip with humanitarian supplies</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoWkY5hYNthAW7DHtxfYskWLWhQaAA1BIlWsAhAcVLNMs1N3aLHLGRCb4O-gKS4x69BJNxQa88X-_B9ChNMh5TJqqdnePhUxTt4uXfZ0DZ76nd8OohRzLGj_aUXQqs6OjHfw_chvAYlP9aKMu2Dfodiy69D2zuRBLGjD7QJW1Rhkv0DDNW8e2vY4b9x3Y/s624/Daniel%20Hagari%20-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="624" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoWkY5hYNthAW7DHtxfYskWLWhQaAA1BIlWsAhAcVLNMs1N3aLHLGRCb4O-gKS4x69BJNxQa88X-_B9ChNMh5TJqqdnePhUxTt4uXfZ0DZ76nd8OohRzLGj_aUXQqs6OjHfw_chvAYlP9aKMu2Dfodiy69D2zuRBLGjD7QJW1Rhkv0DDNW8e2vY4b9x3Y/s320/Daniel%20Hagari%20-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">IDF Spokesperson</span> <span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">Rear-Admiral Daniel Hagari addresses the media in
Tel Aviv. Credit: Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">The website of Hamas’ Al-Majd intelligence and
internal security forces indicated that the group was seeking to thwart Mr.
Netanyahu’s plan by targeting Palestinians suspected of cooperating with
Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Earlier this week, Al-Majd </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-linked-website-warns-palestinians-not-work-with-israel-2024-03-11/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">warned Palestinians who cooperated with Israel that
they would be treated as collaborators</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> and handled with an iron fist. Hamas has a history of executing suspected
collaborators.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Arab media reports said Hamas had killed in
recent days the head of the powerful Doghmush clan and two others in their
family compound in Gaza City. Hamas accused the unidentified leader of stealing
humanitarian aid and maintaining contact with Israel.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">With links to organised crime and the arms trade,
Doghmush clansmen have clashed with Hamas in the past. Clan members have been associated
with multiple Palestinian groups including Hamas, Palestine Authority President
Mahmoud Abbas’ Al Fatah, and various Islamist organisations.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Dubbed the “Sopranos of Gaza City, the Doghmush
gained notoriety for their involvement in the 2005 abduction of Israeli soldier
Gilad Shalit and the 2007 kidnapping of British journalist Alan Johnston.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The killing is likely to persuade clans
potentially willing to work with Israel to reconsider. Hamas this week </span><a href="https://qudspress.com/121582/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">welcomed
a clans’ statement rejecting cooperation with Israel</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The statement “underscored the families' and
clans' support for our resistance, government, police, and security services,
and the rejection of the occupation's attempts to sway Palestinian nationalism,"
Hamas said.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><i><span style="font-family: "Aptos",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological
University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of
the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i><span style="font-family: Aptos, serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The
Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span></p>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-40609674285141848432024-03-11T12:31:00.001+08:002024-03-11T12:31:43.614+08:00Innocent Gazans pay a heavy price for Hamas and Israel’s disregard for human life.<p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis7zUTa0sPTbDcDsn7n4xIYZv1PwWLidSJL_qBYswDMQnppnXdeJK2VcSd-Qk-HzxSi2sLkTsJQQT1gqCFxZ9WyajubAdVNGbrFdOJg7Ay2Q01Q4gNMRzdvFwpwK5x2gUPmNuzt3qx-0j6EFky-SORoEQrZIbSj-0pcIS58iN4cYbO9F_zKuo9KHWU6OU/s1280/Heavy%20price.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis7zUTa0sPTbDcDsn7n4xIYZv1PwWLidSJL_qBYswDMQnppnXdeJK2VcSd-Qk-HzxSi2sLkTsJQQT1gqCFxZ9WyajubAdVNGbrFdOJg7Ay2Q01Q4gNMRzdvFwpwK5x2gUPmNuzt3qx-0j6EFky-SORoEQrZIbSj-0pcIS58iN4cYbO9F_zKuo9KHWU6OU/s320/Heavy%20price.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">By James M. Dorsey</span></div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
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<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="font-family: Aptos, serif;">To
watch a video version of this story on YouTube please click</span></em><a href="https://youtu.be/ljUqQRGN0To" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> here.</span></em></a><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></u></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="font-family: Aptos, serif;">An audio podcast is available on </span></em></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/innocent-gazans-pay-a-heavy-price-for-hamas-and-israels-disregard-for-human-life" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud</span></em></a><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.</span></u></em><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Failed efforts to achieve a Gaza ceasefire on the eve of
Ramadan leave innocent Gazans in the lurch, highlight the gap between Israel
and Hamas’ demands in negotiations, and raise the stakes for the United States.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">At the core of the stalled negotiations is Prime Minister
Binyamin Netanyahu’s insistence on continuing Israel’s assault after a
ceasefire and an exchange of some Hamas-held hostages kidnapped during the
group’s October 7 attack on Israel for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRyY0beke03MG56za6DO0qsWVHs1MQ5OKoVVykk9CPfoP0CHR2oK4A2TaAHNtDS19ZP0bdTu2yWjGj15e3POzSuKEOStXvPwyMEUZHTO6CtUCfU9RFb9F4pOGDOfvXSsz1YvhqEs4hMF8iCn4Z5pVA6ZNic0rccNDxwgI7qnKWqF95GdjryrG1XY8IpdM/s1430/Netanyahu-4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="920" data-original-width="1430" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRyY0beke03MG56za6DO0qsWVHs1MQ5OKoVVykk9CPfoP0CHR2oK4A2TaAHNtDS19ZP0bdTu2yWjGj15e3POzSuKEOStXvPwyMEUZHTO6CtUCfU9RFb9F4pOGDOfvXSsz1YvhqEs4hMF8iCn4Z5pVA6ZNic0rccNDxwgI7qnKWqF95GdjryrG1XY8IpdM/s320/Netanyahu-4.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #747474; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; letter-spacing: -.1pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 128;">Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Credit: AP
Photo/ Maya Alleruzzo<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Netanyahu hopes that if he gets his way, he will
reduce </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/protesters-police-clash-following-rallies-focused-on-plight-of-female-hostages/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">public
pressure to prioritise the release of the hostages</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> and
the return of the bodies of captives killed in the Israeli assault, address US
concerns amid the Biden administration’s mounting pressure, and be able to
claim success in a devastating war that in its sixth month has failed to
achieve Israel’s goals and severely damaged its international standing.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In Mr. Netanyahu’s mind, securing the release of all the
hostages would deprive Hamas of its foremost trump card in negotiations over
Gaza’s post-war fate, which is why </span><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/05/middleeast/gaza-hamas-ceasefire-israel-intl/index.html"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hamas
will not agree to release all the captives without an end to the war</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, an
Israeli withdrawal from the Strip and its return to Palestinian control, and a
reconstruction process in the devastated territory.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Netanyahu’s problem is that getting his way may not
provide the temporary relief he seeks.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Public pressure is likely to continue until all the
hostages are released. Moreover, freeing the hostages will do little to weaken
widespread calls for Mr. Netanyahu to resign. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In addition, relations between Messrs. Biden and
Netanyahu have crossed a Rubicon, even if the US president still refuses to
pressure Israel in ways that it would feel the pain.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The United States and Mr. Biden have not done themselves
a favour by opting for </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/07/biden-us-port-gaza-aid-delivery#:~:text=%E2%80%9CTonight%2C%20I'm%20directing,shelters%2C%E2%80%9D%20the%20president%20said."><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">a
cumbersome and slow maritime channel</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> for humanitarian aid
instead of linking US arms supplies to Israel to an opening of border crossings
that would allow the immediate flow of massive humanitarian aid sitting on
Egypt’s border with the Strip.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSDVLziZVfm-chMK4onm4OrUP7W7eS_O37Onk0ODjpGOtFZG3j5kDq0oKxT6neuwbc44G7U0spfmP925hnHT_Y0Pg6h6It1VnmQPOJFDqY0t0NDIaXeIynsObTkBeonT2OMvGnafLUvqG7EOOHfyx7HlU_gjvGwWQP3Vmxv8nYzKjHXjxLM0uejYaXXRc/s468/Biden-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="311" data-original-width="468" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSDVLziZVfm-chMK4onm4OrUP7W7eS_O37Onk0ODjpGOtFZG3j5kDq0oKxT6neuwbc44G7U0spfmP925hnHT_Y0Pg6h6It1VnmQPOJFDqY0t0NDIaXeIynsObTkBeonT2OMvGnafLUvqG7EOOHfyx7HlU_gjvGwWQP3Vmxv8nYzKjHXjxLM0uejYaXXRc/s320/Biden-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #747474; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 128;">US President Joe
Biden. Credit: Reuters<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Finally, accepting even some of Hamas’ demands would
likely spark </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/far-rightist-threatens-quit-israel-govt-over-any-reckless-gaza-deal-2024-01-30/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">the
demise of Mr. Netanyahu’s government</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> with his ultra-nationalist
and ultra-conservative partners walking away from the coalition.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The ultra-nationalists and ultra-conservatives </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/29/far-right-makes-gains-in-israeli-municipal-elections"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">strengthened
their stranglehold</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> with significant gains in the first round of
last month’s municipal elections. Israelis went for </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/second-round-of-municipal-elections-set-for-sunday-in-35-locales/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">a
second round</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> in 35 cities and towns on Sunday.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">All of this does not take Hamas off the hook.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hamas does not have much to lose if it were to agree to </span><a href="https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/publish/posts/detail/142070366?referrer=%2Fpublish%2Fposts"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">a
proposed six-week ceasefire</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> during which it would release only 40
hostages – mostly women, children, elderly people, and those in need of
immediate medical assistance.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv7esB4pJ9uIm5CuBKX6_0QyHyRj-Q9qFjjmSCow_WUyWn9K0cpLeNw_Bkbs3x6OMpnXRQa8jpY8Hr2c6i7d3Go5Ad73fu6Gq_J2l7BsyztiGJwFrbkW4-ZgT3ncCNv78kRyi8E6ZXOlETBNCttDffwhwqZzzceVkwe3MplRO6jErHSGqJSwrjA1t4HqQ/s624/Hostage%20families%20Israel.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="624" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv7esB4pJ9uIm5CuBKX6_0QyHyRj-Q9qFjjmSCow_WUyWn9K0cpLeNw_Bkbs3x6OMpnXRQa8jpY8Hr2c6i7d3Go5Ad73fu6Gq_J2l7BsyztiGJwFrbkW4-ZgT3ncCNv78kRyi8E6ZXOlETBNCttDffwhwqZzzceVkwe3MplRO6jErHSGqJSwrjA1t4HqQ/s320/Hostage%20families%20Israel.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background: white; color: #878787; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Family and supporters of hostages held by Hamas
in Gaza complete the final leg of a five-day solidarity rally calling for their
return, from Tel Aviv to the Prime Minister's Office in Jerusalem. Credit: AP/Mahmoud Illean<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Hamas would retain its leverage, particularly given that
its remaining hostages are primarily Israeli military personnel.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Moreover, by agreeing to a six-week-ceasefire, Hamas
would help create the space for negotiations on a permanent silencing of the
guns and an end to the war.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Finally, even a temporary ceasefire on terms involving a
substantial flow of humanitarian aid would help avert famine and a mushrooming
public health disaster in Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The problem is that neither Israel nor Hamas cares about
the desperate plight of Gazans.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“#Hamas and #Netanyahu are </span><a href="https://twitter.com/andreas_krieg/status/1764391821080215578"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">haggling
over human lives as if they were on a cattle market</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,”
said scholar Andreas Krieg in a tweet. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">At least some Hamas figures, </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-03-06/ty-article/.premium/u-s-in-final-push-for-gaza-truce-before-ramadan-but-sinwar-seems-to-favor-escalation/0000018e-1073-d343-a9de-397733dd0000"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">reportedly
including Yahya Sinwar</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, the group’s Gaza-based leader and one
of Israel’s most wanted men, believe that Hamas’ negotiating position would be
further enhanced if the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsens and if the onset of
Ramadan heightens tension around Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa Mosque, Islam’s third
holiest site.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg66-SSYlNt-h-w7JmMVIMOd41tLBrpBH5_rybhOUfd_mM-GW_nchoEIqSwSS0MPyq5gVmhGselemZt60VsRyz1chjpLJVqsE6gGyKTgt6KOPRY_hfVItcE1jqQJm4aKeSfxCuSEcDJ6fqRA68ZaZq4X5CeTiHMF4WB1yV_BwPJI1_ksTNxBT68LSF-vik/s1950/Al%20Aqsa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1221" data-original-width="1950" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg66-SSYlNt-h-w7JmMVIMOd41tLBrpBH5_rybhOUfd_mM-GW_nchoEIqSwSS0MPyq5gVmhGselemZt60VsRyz1chjpLJVqsE6gGyKTgt6KOPRY_hfVItcE1jqQJm4aKeSfxCuSEcDJ6fqRA68ZaZq4X5CeTiHMF4WB1yV_BwPJI1_ksTNxBT68LSF-vik/s320/Al%20Aqsa.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background: white; color: #878787; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Palestinians attend afternoon prayers on the
Temple Mount, which houses the Al-Aqsa Mosque, in Jerusalem's Old City, during Muslim
holy month of Ramadan. Credit: Ahmad Gharabli/AFP</span><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hamas and Israel compete on who issues the most
blood-curdling statements. Both display a despicable disregard for the humanity
of the other.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Cloaking itself in the mantle of legitimate resistance
and the assertion that all Israelis, including those within Israel’s pre-1967 borders,
are settlers, Hamas has no compunction about </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-official-says-group-aims-to-repeat-oct-7-onslaught-many-times-to-destroy-israel/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">threatening
more October 7-style attacks.</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Civilians accounted for most of the more than 1,100
people killed, some brutally, in the Hamas assault.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel digs itself deeper and deeper into a whole not
only by its conduct of the war and refusal to ensure the unfettered flow of
humanitarian aid into Gaza but also by </span><a href="https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/publish/posts/detail/142290028?referrer=%2Fpublish%2Fposts"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">abusive
social media postings</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> by soldiers in Gaza and repeated problematic
statements by political and religious figures.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #878787; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the latest incident, Rabbi Eliyahu Mali, whose
religious seminary in Jaffa, </span><a href="https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/as-jerusalem-burns-the-palestinians-of-jaffa-face-similar-evictions/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">aims
to dispossess Palestinians still resident</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> in what is today a
southern suburb of Tel Aviv that once was Palestine’s most populous city,
issued </span><a href="https://twitter.com/KhaledYousry22/status/1766212862719004836"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">what
can only be called an incitement to genocide.</span></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8MRU5NMoUO46aX7-B6eqyupuZV4u2WhAo7VNoUaBuJep-9VL8wb0-zVHfn6SpIsn0tM53v6enjNKBHUddLEqdVf6sxybh_ZseDDw9dliT4WQGsxD2YAq4CKqE04Qzw53qXF_Zr6S9y6zwi2TKrXaGQBo22S447I5MqvqLBMbT-o2MwVizzzuEzVwR5MI/s624/Eliyahu%20Mali.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="350" data-original-width="624" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8MRU5NMoUO46aX7-B6eqyupuZV4u2WhAo7VNoUaBuJep-9VL8wb0-zVHfn6SpIsn0tM53v6enjNKBHUddLEqdVf6sxybh_ZseDDw9dliT4WQGsxD2YAq4CKqE04Qzw53qXF_Zr6S9y6zwi2TKrXaGQBo22S447I5MqvqLBMbT-o2MwVizzzuEzVwR5MI/s320/Eliyahu%20Mali.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #747474; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 128;">Rabbi Eliyahu Mali
speaking in a conference at his Shirat Moshe yeshiva.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“The basic rule we have when fighting a holy war, in this
case, Gaza, is the doctrine of ‘not sparing a soul.’ The logic of this is very
clear. If you don’t kill them, they will try to kill you. Today’s saboteurs are
the children of the previous war whom we kept alive,” Mr. Mali said in a
conference at his Shirat Moshe yeshiva.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“It is the women who create the terrorists… It’s either
you or them… ‘Do not spare a soul’ is based on the doctrine, ‘He who comes to
kill you in the afternoon, kill him in the morning.’ The one who comes to kill
you is not (just) the 18, 16, 20, 30-year-old who points his weapon at you, but
also the next generation and those that give birth to the next generation,” Mr.
Mali said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The rabbi asserted that “there is no such thing called an
innocent creature… An elderly man can carry a rifle and shoot.” <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Asked if the same is true for children, Mr. Mali replied,
shrugging his shoulders, “It’s the same thing… When the Torah says, ‘Do not
spare a soul, you must not spare a soul. Today he is a child, today he is a
youth, tomorrow a fighter.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Mali’s comments </span><a href="https://news.yahoo.com/israeli-president-says-no-innocent-154330724.html"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">echoed
statements by Israeli President Isaac Herzog</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> early in the war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ_5CntrepOOP44Okzr92pErfAe_Hc9E_OKPTYlmU5m6x1YMX2VMiEuwPoWnp2NX0fDM6CGmGhjlOENTbYLO9FtOpy-ZNW8WxrL-o1UC2S_jRlW99KSVRWBkl9RWLY_bSZLa9n49cKsjkrCN-V8RyXWfHqAVXQzjFkDs5NECzamLEOIkgksBpP-1kloV0/s468/Isaac%20Herzog.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="312" data-original-width="468" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ_5CntrepOOP44Okzr92pErfAe_Hc9E_OKPTYlmU5m6x1YMX2VMiEuwPoWnp2NX0fDM6CGmGhjlOENTbYLO9FtOpy-ZNW8WxrL-o1UC2S_jRlW99KSVRWBkl9RWLY_bSZLa9n49cKsjkrCN-V8RyXWfHqAVXQzjFkDs5NECzamLEOIkgksBpP-1kloV0/s320/Isaac%20Herzog.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background: white; color: #747474; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 128;">Israel's
President Isaac Herzog. Credit: Olivier Fitoussi/Flash90<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“It is an entire nation out there responsible (for the
October 7 attack). It is not true this rhetoric about civilians not being
aware, not involved. It’s absolutely not true. They could have risen up. They
could have fought against that evil regime which took over Gaza in a coup d’etat,”
the president told an October 17, 2023 news conference.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">When asked to clarify whether he meant to say that since
Gazans did not remove Hamas from power “that makes them, by implication,
legitimate targets,” Mr. Herzog claimed, “No, I didn’t say that.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">However, Mr. Herzog then went on to say that “When you
have a missile in your goddamn kitchen and you want to shoot it at me, am I
allowed to defend myself?”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Tellingly, neither Mr. Herzog nor Mr. Netanyahu or any
other government official has denounced Mr. Mali’s comments that echo not only
the president’s earlier remarks but also those of various Cabinet-level
officials.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #747474; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 128;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk136859387"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i></a><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p></p>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-34451791464312358992024-03-08T12:19:00.001+08:002024-03-08T12:19:30.483+08:00Gaza war turns Palestine into a potential Middle Eastern lightning rod.<p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwKSoUSd8F8yqxJo7cxG9orGTHvCYfq6YWqs6NEMiQsh1EHXWfFPF9pi9AGq5Zook_My_OeG3MB0q5df35yijMnb9FrorCm_60QUFG48RtDg1frF1mnh7Trz0cUhXSADKpJv2AUaR28N_X_WAIuYtb1nZOhu9HW-D41E0X072-Nee-R5GOTvfWYyotroY/s1280/Gaza%20Lightning%20Rod.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwKSoUSd8F8yqxJo7cxG9orGTHvCYfq6YWqs6NEMiQsh1EHXWfFPF9pi9AGq5Zook_My_OeG3MB0q5df35yijMnb9FrorCm_60QUFG48RtDg1frF1mnh7Trz0cUhXSADKpJv2AUaR28N_X_WAIuYtb1nZOhu9HW-D41E0X072-Nee-R5GOTvfWYyotroY/s320/Gaza%20Lightning%20Rod.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By James M. Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
the support of its readers. If you believe that the column and podcast add
value to your understanding and that of the broader public, please consider
becoming a paid subscriber by clicking on the subscription button at </span></i><a href="http://www.jamesmdorsey.substack.com/"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">http://www.jamesmdorsey.substack.com</span></i></a><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> and choosing one of the
subscription options. Thank you.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p style="background: white;"><em><span style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif;">To
watch a video version of this story on YouTube please click</span></em><a href="https://youtu.be/N2R0i92kuNI" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> here.</span></em></a><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></u></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif;">An audio podcast is available
on </span></em></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/gaza-war-turns-palestine-into-a-potential-middle-eastern-lightning-rod" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud</span></em></a><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.</span></u></em><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk160738484"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Gaza war has turned
Palestine into a lightning rod for mounting frustration and discontent in Arab
autocracies such as Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco.<o:p></o:p></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Concerned that the war could mobilise segments of civil
society, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates where any form of public
protest is banned, have cracked down on expressions of solidarity with Gaza,
including the sporting of keffiyehs, the chequered scarf that symbolises
Palestinian nationalism.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="text-align: center;">
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk160738484;"></span>
</p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In December, pro-Palestinian activists at the COP28
climate summit in Dubai faced </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/pro-palestinian-activists-bemoan-tight-restrictions-on-protest-at-dubais-cop28/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">unprecedented
restrictions</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> including prohibitions on flags and
explicitly naming a country in news conferences, and scrutiny of their slogans.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheSvPcgDgHGffEOCfWCD98FqHLPUcSuAvu7ck5DuS1PIsQ8nT-368gy6JqK5n7TZdaF3E2N0MHtbYdtMCfr0Um_0sjr3WeHv6ZAoNkwf9uPCh3L79zQYTl16lolUNPwHlxpYqOfV-Sa1huv0A5AErVlZyYGYE9vl1XOeUQ4t2JjPqONQ1xa_hfwgZ0LgY/s1430/Cop28Protest.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="894" data-original-width="1430" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheSvPcgDgHGffEOCfWCD98FqHLPUcSuAvu7ck5DuS1PIsQ8nT-368gy6JqK5n7TZdaF3E2N0MHtbYdtMCfr0Um_0sjr3WeHv6ZAoNkwf9uPCh3L79zQYTl16lolUNPwHlxpYqOfV-Sa1huv0A5AErVlZyYGYE9vl1XOeUQ4t2JjPqONQ1xa_hfwgZ0LgY/s320/Cop28Protest.jpg" width="320" /></a></div></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background: white; color: #878787; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Pro-Palestinian demonstrators call for a
ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war during the COP28 UN Climate Summit, in Dubai,
United Arab Emirates, on December 3, 2023. Credit: AP Photo/Peter Dejong<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In January, the Red Sea Film Festival in Jeddah, the
biggest film event in the Middle East and North Africa, welcomed Palestinian
cinema but </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/gaza-war-calls-middle-east-de-escalation-into-question"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">banned
the donning by attendees of keffiyehs</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk160738572"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Like in the second half of
the 20<sup>th</sup> century, protests in the Middle East beyond the Gulf in
support of Palestinians and against Israel’s assault on Gaza are as much about
the war as they are about anger at governments’ faltering economic performance.<o:p></o:p></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Nowhere is the anger more acute than in Egypt where the
country’s currency slipped this week sharply against the US dollar after the
central bank raised its main interest rate by 600 base points to 27.75 per cent
and said it would allow the currency’s exchange rate to be set by market
forces. It was the Egyptian pound’s fifth devaluation in two years.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hard hit by the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, the government </span><a href="https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/130841/FULL-COVERAGE-IMF-Agreement-Marks-Milestone-for-Egypt-s-Economic"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">expected
the measures</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> to stymie Egypt’s 31 per cent inflation
rate, attract desperately needed foreign investment, and tackle its staggering
shortage of foreign currency.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #878787; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Egypt has suffered from a loss of tourism, significantly
reduced Suez Canal shipping revenues because of Yemeni Houthi attacks on
commercial vessels in the Red Sea, rising wheat prices in the wake of the
Ukraine war, and economic mismanagement, including investment in megaprojects
such as a US$58 billion new desert capital, and granting military-owned
enterprises preferential treatment and an oversized stake in the economy.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqaPwksmZw5HiDH7dAcrFTEyOiHzy6SMsZMZE0zUjbwsnr9u9khZ4gCw7v6ePaozEOzsiBfYLNddksB1Jh3ODcSEyc4ULjV08GapXqpO3cK3BCqQM9hL_iChwFifVWHMboiDjxJpChudzNtAICeJl8dqnNFMbQxSU1EsVWQ9g4yUADqYES7IITi7cLD-o/s1950/New%20Egypt%20Capital.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1300" data-original-width="1950" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqaPwksmZw5HiDH7dAcrFTEyOiHzy6SMsZMZE0zUjbwsnr9u9khZ4gCw7v6ePaozEOzsiBfYLNddksB1Jh3ODcSEyc4ULjV08GapXqpO3cK3BCqQM9hL_iChwFifVWHMboiDjxJpChudzNtAICeJl8dqnNFMbQxSU1EsVWQ9g4yUADqYES7IITi7cLD-o/s320/New%20Egypt%20Capital.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">A view from the under-construction Iconic Tower
skyscraper, showing ongoing work in the business and finance district of
Egypt's New Administrative Capital on August 3, 2021. Credit: Khaled Desouki /
AFP / Getty<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The floating of the pound secured an </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/03/06/egypt-economy-pound-inflation-exchange-rate/6b47ba54-dba4-11ee-b5e9-ad4573c62315_story.html"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">expansion
from US$3 billion to US$8 billion</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> of Egypt’s International
Monetary Fund bailout loan, making the North African country one of the IMF’s
highest borrowers.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The IMF agreement cemented a recent deal with the United
Arab Emirates to develop a prime stretch of Egypt’s Mediterranean coast </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/egypt-announces-multi-billion-uae-investment-boost-forex-2024-02-23/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">with
a US$ 35 billion investment over the next two months</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Egypt will retain a 35 per cent stake in the development
with the Talaat Moustafa Group, a construction conglomerate involved in
building the new capital as one of the beneficiaries.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">While not officially announced, well-placed sources said
It was understood that the deal was contingent on Egypt reaching an agreement
with the IMF.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gulf states, including the UAE, have in recent years backed
away from pumping funds into black holes. Instead, they increasingly </span><a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-pakistan-shape-up-easy-money-end"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">link
investments in countries like Egypt and Pakistan to economic reforms</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> and
prospects for a return on investment.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The UAE pioneered the approach when it based a government
minister in Cairo immediately after general-turned-president Abdel Fattah
Al-Sisi’s UAE-backed coup that toppled Egypt’s first and only democratically
elected president. The UAE official attempted to nudge Mr. Al-Sisi towards
economic reform.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkYMWnzFM0iusrzucsdDOzJRmJ6CpgYv2K68Q38TAsyZZgQyVNK8abe72QcH4FIghOVwYYEs4DcC2NyPcFDoz2xJzO67Eu8qAFkiAStFJqC8IPgLxuJ8QHZ_banOQxxrwfQ6YJJtlKglWxsD7KJp9b5KmHl0bBCTfPmwSu_JNpaNeuYOddU1i1jFRNtT0/s1950/Al-Sisi.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1098" data-original-width="1950" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkYMWnzFM0iusrzucsdDOzJRmJ6CpgYv2K68Q38TAsyZZgQyVNK8abe72QcH4FIghOVwYYEs4DcC2NyPcFDoz2xJzO67Eu8qAFkiAStFJqC8IPgLxuJ8QHZ_banOQxxrwfQ6YJJtlKglWxsD7KJp9b5KmHl0bBCTfPmwSu_JNpaNeuYOddU1i1jFRNtT0/s320/Al-Sisi.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background: white; color: #0c0c0c; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
Credit: KHALED DESOUKI/AFP/AFP/Getty Images<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“We work with the International Monetary Fund and
according to its rules. </span><a href="https://saudigazette.com.sa/article/629011"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The days of unconditional
assistance are over</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,” Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan
told an investment conference last year.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Last week, <a name="_Hlk160738661">45-year-old policeman
Abdel-Gawad Muhammad al-Sahlamy was alone when he </a></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuWcisz2Smk&t=7s"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">staged a one-man protest</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> waving a Palestinian flag atop an
advertisement billboard in the port city of Alexandria, but many Egyptians were
likely to have been with him in spirit.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Many are angry that Egypt’s Refah border crossing into
Gaza remains closed despite the images of thousands of Gazans dying and
imminent famine. In October, the government sought to pre-empt potential
protests by </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/10/21/exploiting-our-anger-egyptians-denounce-staged-pro-palestine-protests"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">staging
pro-Palestinian demonstrations of its own</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #0c0c0c; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Al-Sisi believes that pro-Palestinian activists who
were allowed to stage protests under former president Hosni Mubarak shifted
their focus in 2011 to his regime and ultimately toppled him during the popular
Arab uprisings. The revolts also led to the demise of autocratic rulers in
Tunisia, Libya, and Yemen and sparked mass anti-government demonstrations
elsewhere in the Middle East.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga5SKJOQN9EcIPLaSo6ciAIrxsd3kPJLv71I_Z5BVPJC0caobBBRLAjeBSJqJg4w_OLB77ilcrDSPO2aeSk5vYtbAnXZZBMMZyXjnllp2B_XxhldqvHa2NP_TY9QEs2_jWKGChGH8XT3eHs09XjR5MmAgCoxODYM5vR9ipY43kCEKquScHz4ZmV7D9298/s637/Arab%20Spring.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="425" data-original-width="637" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga5SKJOQN9EcIPLaSo6ciAIrxsd3kPJLv71I_Z5BVPJC0caobBBRLAjeBSJqJg4w_OLB77ilcrDSPO2aeSk5vYtbAnXZZBMMZyXjnllp2B_XxhldqvHa2NP_TY9QEs2_jWKGChGH8XT3eHs09XjR5MmAgCoxODYM5vR9ipY43kCEKquScHz4ZmV7D9298/s320/Arab%20Spring.png" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Arab
Spring Uprisings. Credit: Mosa'ab Elshamy/Moment/Getty Images<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">To be sure, Egypt is worried that Israel’s destruction of
Gaza is an effort to rid the Strip of its population by inducing Gazans to flee
to Egypt. Officials in Cairo also fear that Hamas operatives could infiltrate
the Sinai Peninsula where the military has been countering a low-level
insurgency. Mr. Al-Sisi’s government is weary of Hamas because of its links to
the Muslim Brotherhood.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even so, many Egyptians resent the government’s close
security ties with Israel and its support for a 17-year-long Israeli blockade
of Gaza that has been tightened since the war. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Egyptian resentment is compounded by </span><a href="https://www.madamasr.com/en/2024/02/13/feature/politics/the-argany-peninsula/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">reports</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
that corrupt Egyptian government officials linked to the country’s intelligence
service and a well-connected businessman who hails from the Sinai </span><a href="https://theintercept.com/2024/03/07/gaza-palestinians-border-crossing-egypt/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">charge
up to US$7,500 per person for travel permits</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> from Gaza to Egypt.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Al-Sahlamy shouted “God is Great” and denounced Mr.
Al-Sisi as a “traitor and an agent” before being arrested by security forces.
The Egyptian Network for Human Rights (ENHR) said Mr. Al-Sahlamy </span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=431397699241295&set=a.206829455031455"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">has
not been heard from since</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The network quoted a friend of Mr. Al-Sahlamy as saying he
was "breaking down" because of the war, which he described as
“injustice.” Mr. Al-Sahlamy demanded that "the (Egyptian) borders (with
Gaza) should be opened” to allow Gazans to escape the carnage, ENHR quoted the
policeman’s friend as saying.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The IMF’s austerity program could push struggling
Egyptians to a level of destitution not seen since the Egyptian bread riots of
1977, despite the government’s insistence that it will put in plkace social
protection measures to shield the most vulnerable.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The rising cost of basic goods has deepened the hardships
faced by middle sand lower-class Egyptians. They have suffered from price hikes
since the government embarked on an ambitious reform program in 2016 to
overhaul the battered economy. </span><a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1237041/poverty-headcount-ratio-in-egypt/#:~:text=As%20of%202022%2C%20the%20poverty,about%2032%20percent%20in%202020."><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Nearly
30 per cent of Egyptians live in poverty</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, according to official
figures.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For now, Egyptians like others elsewhere in the Arab
world, fear that uprisings would only enhance the chaos already gripping their
part of the world.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In Egypt’s case, “the question of Sisi’s future will
arise </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2023-06-19/ty-article/.premium/egypts-sissi-fears-the-moment-egyptians-decide-they-have-nothing-more-to-lose/00000188-cfb9-dc40-a9b9-dfbb93420000"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">when
Egyptian citizens decide that they have nothing more to lose</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,”
said Israeli journalist and Middle East analyst Zvi Bar’el.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The same is true for much of the Middle East beyond the
Gulf with widespread public frustration at Arab states’ inability or
unwillingness to alleviate Palestinian suffering as the joker in the pack.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The
Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"> </div>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-61451118714003072872024-03-04T20:53:00.001+08:002024-03-04T20:53:17.283+08:00Weaponizing food: Palestinians lose lives, Israelis lose humanity.<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwoJHw8GZ0NGmiiBAn2B5IpIYjxtSmlNXCBXz5QgMBqlnSD76w2-M33vbO3J7wTeh0KfUf-8QpuVYdKeyoexcIIFUov88EKdXxizYCKT4mfl-AZfrbvprOeMD64F9GlOjkVqVvz9Oary2RR26EArZhqw79dT2ShYjbRUUmWPhaamh_BUV3WiffNTRpAfU/s1280/Gaza%20Hunger.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwoJHw8GZ0NGmiiBAn2B5IpIYjxtSmlNXCBXz5QgMBqlnSD76w2-M33vbO3J7wTeh0KfUf-8QpuVYdKeyoexcIIFUov88EKdXxizYCKT4mfl-AZfrbvprOeMD64F9GlOjkVqVvz9Oary2RR26EArZhqw79dT2ShYjbRUUmWPhaamh_BUV3WiffNTRpAfU/s320/Gaza%20Hunger.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By James M. Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
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<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "DengXian Light"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To watch a video version of this story on YouTube
please click</span></em><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://youtu.be/RWqr9YOvV90" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "DengXian Light"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> here.</span></em></a></span><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "DengXian Light"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></u></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-fareast-font-family: "DengXian Light"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An audio podcast is available
on </span></em></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-631843442/weaponizing-food-palestinians-lose-lives-israelis-lose-humanity" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "DengXian Light"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud</span></em></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "DengXian Light"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.</span></u></em></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk160394485"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A long-standing
Israeli-Palestinian battlefield, food has moved centre stage.<o:p></o:p></span></a></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk160394485;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For Gazans, who are on the verge of starvation, the food
fight is existential.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIT4cugzm0kYpsqt5DgDQgq0dEMfhQRRAyMgzgMgek7nOJMzEbkT5j5RSAAKwVSOwnDL9DzMvqsNpr69-44iFPkxrQJldbnxX1rZ_gIswEkpYh0XZtMFu_UTrusfjZJPpiJh-0Yy2_CjgucICwCQlgk4DiZoXDtICarGMrMftNsx5n1igoDsYfG9b8fq8/s1430/Gaza%20food.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="894" data-original-width="1430" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIT4cugzm0kYpsqt5DgDQgq0dEMfhQRRAyMgzgMgek7nOJMzEbkT5j5RSAAKwVSOwnDL9DzMvqsNpr69-44iFPkxrQJldbnxX1rZ_gIswEkpYh0XZtMFu_UTrusfjZJPpiJh-0Yy2_CjgucICwCQlgk4DiZoXDtICarGMrMftNsx5n1igoDsYfG9b8fq8/s320/Gaza%20food.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-color-alt: windowtext;">Palestinians line up for
free food in Rafah, Gaza Strip, Feb. 23, 2024. Credit: AP /Fatima Shbair</span><span style="background: white; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For Israelis, preventing the flow of food and desperately
needed medical supplies into Gaza, is continuing a cynical and cruel policy
that five months into the Gaza war has proven to be a failure.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In contrast to, Israeli hopes, Gazans have not blamed
Hamas for their abominable plight and have not revolted against the group.
Instead, they blame Israel and the United States for allowing Israel to get
away with an unconscionable weaponisation of food and basic humanitarian
supplies.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Moreover, near starvation has not sparked a Gazan run on
the Refah border crossing in a bid to escape an ever-worsening human disaster
and possible death.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gazans pay the highest price while Israel digs itself
ever deeper into a hole that will haunt it for years to come.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Appointed by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s
predecessor, Roni Strier, the head of Israel's National Food Security Council, called
on Friday for a ceasefire, citing Gaza’s dire humanitarian situation, “</span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-03-03/ty-article/.premium/citing-extreme-hunger-in-gaza-israels-top-food-security-official-calls-for-cease-fire/0000018e-048b-d6be-afff-44cbd45e0000"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">which
includes extreme hunger </span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">of the local population… Israel
can't ignore the humanitarian considerations it is obligated to both morally
and politically,” Mr. Strier said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh4hGGR6pK3jv2ssIjfIFzMLUBdd0WxAC-upcxkaNU9PFAPlP3IPo8nbyivRcuJTy1_CI_ynzhDHShSeppThESTB8fAGd38zOO-aBHC36crmhJNzGFCX6j5OJ9w4IYGRAznKKaJQEryDfxRkYIk5gSxjQtqXgVaUKK56sp-dpfeGwPCNGS68mf7_bhd2A/s624/Roni%20Strier.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="624" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh4hGGR6pK3jv2ssIjfIFzMLUBdd0WxAC-upcxkaNU9PFAPlP3IPo8nbyivRcuJTy1_CI_ynzhDHShSeppThESTB8fAGd38zOO-aBHC36crmhJNzGFCX6j5OJ9w4IYGRAznKKaJQEryDfxRkYIk5gSxjQtqXgVaUKK56sp-dpfeGwPCNGS68mf7_bhd2A/s320/Roni%20Strier.jpg" width="320" /></a></div></div></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Prof.
Roni Strier, the head of Israel’s National Council for Food Security. Credit:
Shlomi Yosef<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Strier noted that the death on Thursday of more than
100 Palestinians storming an aid truck indicated “the extent of the
humanitarian crisis gripping Gaza,” He asserted that "the Israeli
government can't absolve itself of responsibility for this situation."<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel claimed </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-review-gaza-aid-convoy-deaths-finds-most-killed-stampede-2024-03-03/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">a
majority had died in a stampede</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. Even if true, despite
imagery of the incident and witness accounts that tell a different stiry, the
stampede would not have occurred if food and aid were flowing in sufficient
volumes into Gaza. Moreover, shooting to kill is a last resort in crowd control.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk160394539"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Meanwhile, in a vulgar
display of disregard for the life of the other, that is only matched by Hamas’
callousness, Israeli soldiers posted video clips on social media as they celebrated
the Gazans’ desperate plight.<o:p></o:p></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“We turn on the light against this dark place and burn it
until there is no trace of this whole place,” a soldier said in one clip </span><a href="https://twitter.com/Lowkey0nline/status/1733632791043072296?lang=en"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">as
another sets a pile of food ablaze in Gaza City’s Shejaiya neighborhood</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFgkXNdv8yTXzK_AcLdkF6Uc2b33BYDm8vaNlYmVM8sWZK1LviJSHu8iD8L7Dp0WAQiRzZDBvZj6gO58seU6OGCDl9LU-pY5DKFK8JN2iQoII-4dpwDQKFFjBYjv2lpI_YNN34nsdn3739zH-nqXpFSiGLOYryPaIvU7f_XWR8Lgl9lTB9qirH2cizKpM/s624/Soldiers%20Gaza%20food.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="388" data-original-width="624" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFgkXNdv8yTXzK_AcLdkF6Uc2b33BYDm8vaNlYmVM8sWZK1LviJSHu8iD8L7Dp0WAQiRzZDBvZj6gO58seU6OGCDl9LU-pY5DKFK8JN2iQoII-4dpwDQKFFjBYjv2lpI_YNN34nsdn3739zH-nqXpFSiGLOYryPaIvU7f_XWR8Lgl9lTB9qirH2cizKpM/s320/Soldiers%20Gaza%20food.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Video
shared on X shows Israeli army troops trying to burn food and water supplies in
the back of an abandoned truck in Gaza CREDIT: X via AP<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In another video, </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eu8qlr9cYec"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">soldiers cooked a meal with
ingredients in the abandoned home of a displaced Palestinian family</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
that is probably scrounging for food elsewhere in the Strip.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Speaking to Haaretz
newspaper, a soldier </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.co.il/food/2024-02-13/ty-article-magazine/.premium/0000018d-82c5-d6dc-ab9f-cffd1ebc0000"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">marveled
at the use of spices in Gazan cuisine</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, seemingly oblivious to the
mushrooming human disaster all around him.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“Gazan cuisine…is full of spices every house you’ll find
a lot of ras el hanout-style (spice) mixes…. Every house we stayed in had
olives that (Palestinians) make, which we tasted … Olive oil is also present in
every home, in gallons, and it helps a lot to upgrade any food. They also have
a great spicy sauce. Sometimes you encounter special things. Suddenly there’s
garlic and then you go all out on pasta with tomatoes and garlic,” the soldier
said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Israel Defense Forces’ military rabbinate has issued
guidelines, entitled </span><a href="https://www.srugim.co.il/883163-%D7%9E%D7%A6%D7%90%D7%A0%D7%95-%D7%90%D7%95%D7%9B%D7%9C-%D7%91%D7%9C%D7%99-%D7%9B%D7%A9%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%91%D7%91%D7%99%D7%AA-%D7%91%D7%A2%D7%96%D7%94-%D7%94%D7%90%D7%9D-%D7%9E%D7%95%D7%AA%D7%A8#google_vignette"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Kosher
procedures when deep in the Gaza Strip</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,’ on food in Gaza while
upholding Jewish law and dietary regulations.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Written by Rabbi Avishai Peretz, the head of the
rabbinate’s kosher section, and approved by chief military rabbi Brigadier
General Eyal Karim, the guidelines endorse the consumption of fresh fruits, vegetables
except for lettuce, cauliflower, and broccoli, eggs, salt, coffee, tea, sugar,
legumes, flour, juice, noodles, oil, and spices such as black pepper, turmeric,
paprika, cinnamon and cumin that do not have a stamp certifying them as kosher.
The guidelines ban insect-infected vegetables, fish, meat, and dairy products
except when no other food is available and only in consultation with the
rabbinate. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Peretz ended the guidelines with an abbreviation of
the </span><a href="https://www.chabad.org/library/bible_cdo/aid/15992/jewish/Chapter-61.htm"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Biblical
quote,</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> “And you shall
eat the riches of all the nations.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgz4R6h2epw5uRl3oyOGna2mDNCDSazq0ZCVIlfBZHrvXA3RjNhj7WBPI7MjRsps9G5xJckLINwzJYcf2bHw_ukJJqD_Od3wQo3a9zdNynJBsLcuaUbn1YrjMQdNDZSE-B9fCXQVRg7_s3dysJPz5zd9PEHg8laJDUWCdKR9b3hbL1knb1F2WqBzdoT5r8/s773/Gaza%20Kashrut.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="773" data-original-width="515" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgz4R6h2epw5uRl3oyOGna2mDNCDSazq0ZCVIlfBZHrvXA3RjNhj7WBPI7MjRsps9G5xJckLINwzJYcf2bHw_ukJJqD_Od3wQo3a9zdNynJBsLcuaUbn1YrjMQdNDZSE-B9fCXQVRg7_s3dysJPz5zd9PEHg8laJDUWCdKR9b3hbL1knb1F2WqBzdoT5r8/s320/Gaza%20Kashrut.jpg" width="213" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Kosher
procedures when deep in the Gaza Strip. Credit: Ynet<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk160394578"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Israeli-Palestinian food
war is existential at multiple levels. In Gaza, it is about survival as a
result of weaponization of a basic human right. On the loftier level of food
and identity politics, it’s about denial of the identity of the other.<o:p></o:p></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><a name="_Hlk160394578"></a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5wQKCxpjrm9wPmVQLVEnZtNmGRDXoS8f4p_hX7_6V_ARPQBWRZuBgm5VIkA48YeNjO444AY89fwae2x0lmOFmg-HF922IbUX-L8mWqUUBHm7d072FGRx9Zm7NA3FTnecKBEPd1D52tRjy95hRYVIS8ZGrkV2h9hna29SklBDJkgX-J8N805nAfof9vsk/s1500/Hospitality%20for%20Humanity.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1500" data-original-width="1500" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5wQKCxpjrm9wPmVQLVEnZtNmGRDXoS8f4p_hX7_6V_ARPQBWRZuBgm5VIkA48YeNjO444AY89fwae2x0lmOFmg-HF922IbUX-L8mWqUUBHm7d072FGRx9Zm7NA3FTnecKBEPd1D52tRjy95hRYVIS8ZGrkV2h9hna29SklBDJkgX-J8N805nAfof9vsk/s320/Hospitality%20for%20Humanity.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">More
than 1,000 chefs call for a Gaza ceasefire. Credit: Hospitality for Humanity<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A </span><a href="https://www.hospitality-for-humanity.com/pledge"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">petition</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and a boycott of Israel initiated by
Palestinian chefs in the United States asserted that “Israel has long
weaponized food, erasing Palestinian people while claiming their cuisine. Here
in the U.S., the appropriation of Palestinian foods as ‘Israeli’ has led to
more than Israelis profiting off Palestinian culture; it is an erasure that has
had real implications for Palestinians. It allows us to negate their cultural
currency and turn our attention away with more ease when we see Palestinian
death.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the United States, the food battle has spilled into
the streets in cities like New York where Israeli restaurants have been
attacked and vandalised. An </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-23/ty-article/.premium/the-israel-hamas-war-has-spilled-into-n-y-c-s-cuisine-scene/0000018b-fc6c-d330-a9bb-fffeb1540000"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">online
map</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
that has since been removed identified on Google Maps 57 “Zionist restaurants”
denoting Israeli and Jewish establishments in the Big Apple. The map was not
associated with the petition.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Taking issue with the petition’s assertion of cultural
appropriation, Israeli food writer Ronit Vered, who has featured Palestinian
chefs and cookbook writers in her writing, argued that </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-12-06/ty-article/.premium/now-hummus-is-called-to-battle-in-the-israel-hamas-war/0000018c-39a5-d11b-a3bf-ffadaab60000"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">there
is no such thing as an ‘original’ or ‘pure’ kitchen</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,
and there are no foods that are not in constant motion and ceaselessly changing.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Like Israel, Ms. Vered went on to say that “Palestinian
cuisine – about whose existence and importance in the Palestinians’ identity
perception there is no doubt – also adopted these foods in the course of
intercultural give and take that took place between different communities
across a very long time.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Ms. Vered noted that hummus in tahini is today an
integral element of the Palestinian kitchen, because many Palestinians from
different socioeconomic classes consume it, at home and elsewhere. The joint
customs and rituals of preparing and eating the portion are part of the family,
community, and national identity of the Palestinian people. But these customs
and rituals are not exclusive to them. Hummus in tahini is also an integral
part of the Syrian, Lebanese, Jordanian, and Israeli kitchens.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Ironically, it was an Israeli Palestinian restaurant
owner in the town of Abu Ghosh, Jawdat Ibrahim who in the 2010s </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/middle-eastern-culture-wars-the-battle-of-the-palates"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">took
issue with Lebanon’s attempt at appropriation of hummus</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> in
a bid to counter Israeli claims and promote Lebanese cuisine.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Ibrahim battled with then-Lebanese tourism minister
Fadi Aboud about who would make it into the Guinness Book of Records by
competing for the title of having made the largest pile of hummus.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Ibrahim’s 4,090-kilogram hummus served in a satellite
dish was ultimately defeated by </span><a href="https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/largest-serving-of-hummus"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Lebanese
Chef Ramzi Choueiri’s 10,452-kilogram dish</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> presented on a 7.17
metre in diameter ceramic plate, the world’s largest.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXzeWNx8g-GtXT4XuLUYDd90asK2PpOQ0wG2hyCG-P-X1UThla1DfCRWe9cUcLHWyLyguytsoGQX25rKu0yon_Tq_lfyUQfrAHANWZYgdJvM-x0egd4sEuy7vX6S35579Si1XiFDS2uUOxvn79ifswBDcQRsKebyxHOrwr41IJZU_FHufOWygB8IMXsrw/s1422/Ramzi%20Choueri%20hummus.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="844" data-original-width="1422" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXzeWNx8g-GtXT4XuLUYDd90asK2PpOQ0wG2hyCG-P-X1UThla1DfCRWe9cUcLHWyLyguytsoGQX25rKu0yon_Tq_lfyUQfrAHANWZYgdJvM-x0egd4sEuy7vX6S35579Si1XiFDS2uUOxvn79ifswBDcQRsKebyxHOrwr41IJZU_FHufOWygB8IMXsrw/s320/Ramzi%20Choueri%20hummus.png" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
world’s largest hummus. Credit: Guiness Book of Records<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“It was (a) big issue that hummus was Lebanese. I said,
'No, hummus is for everybody.' I hold a meeting in the village, and I say, 'We
are going to break Guinness Book of World Records.' Not the Israeli government,
the people of Abu Gosh,” Mr. Ibrahim said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The truth may be in the middle. Palestinian and Israeli
claim dishes whose pedigree goes far beyond either.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even so, regional dishes are part of a battle of
identities that in its more extreme forms denies the existence and demonises
the other.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Nowhere is that battle being fought more viciously with
dire and lethal consequences than in Gaza. It’s a battle in which Palestinians lose
lives in unfathomable numbers and ways of dying while Israelis sacrifice their
humanity and moral integrity.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk136859387"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i></a><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div></div></div>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-268354763244958162024-03-01T09:12:00.001+08:002024-03-01T09:12:29.123+08:00The Battle for the soul of Islam: A game of seduction.<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw-PL39YlkUQVkVoHw9nmw6LRLEE3GrkN_A6GN-Zq7SsJcAyqn4xKYEk3vaWe7HVXwFLfA0TccVxcRKLLGnMD5gO2iXUkzrhg9aHku5eMTGvyILVqcRXR224MWGbjH8wIsXHdY2SiYpqyBwjC4IAGUZRX4WdrbTZ0zhV-QdhJrshhf_C6LYrm1fiSsI28/s1280/A%20game%20of%20seduction.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw-PL39YlkUQVkVoHw9nmw6LRLEE3GrkN_A6GN-Zq7SsJcAyqn4xKYEk3vaWe7HVXwFLfA0TccVxcRKLLGnMD5gO2iXUkzrhg9aHku5eMTGvyILVqcRXR224MWGbjH8wIsXHdY2SiYpqyBwjC4IAGUZRX4WdrbTZ0zhV-QdhJrshhf_C6LYrm1fiSsI28/s320/A%20game%20of%20seduction.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">By James M. Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
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subscription options. Thank you.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To
watch a video version of this story on YouTube please click</span></em><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://youtu.be/3wffsB5hTjo" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> here.</span></em></a></span><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></u></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An audio podcast is available on </span></em></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/the-battle-for-the-soul-of-islam-a-game-of-seduction" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud.</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Two recent high-profile
Arab events honouring Indonesia’s Nahdlatul Ulama, the world’s largest and most
moderate Muslim civil society movement, highlight a subtle tug-of-war over who
will define ‘moderate Islam’ in the 21<sup>st</sup> century.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIfsYnZA-oOWTe1VwtFzMp5Osw6vrRFtCCiB8ocJdWDW1KHtumstdPNZcut7E1zDXatRvqyb12l0r1WxvAB1VHy0pNQmtBhDwnBHYjjhMJm32gM-tHOoInmeczsFTLncXq8M27yjg5F9gVxZl3LqwUOotcPNKBQFJgMSPgBMWsg_k_JatyvEXfjeWDrI4/s624/NU%20100th.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="624" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIfsYnZA-oOWTe1VwtFzMp5Osw6vrRFtCCiB8ocJdWDW1KHtumstdPNZcut7E1zDXatRvqyb12l0r1WxvAB1VHy0pNQmtBhDwnBHYjjhMJm32gM-tHOoInmeczsFTLncXq8M27yjg5F9gVxZl3LqwUOotcPNKBQFJgMSPgBMWsg_k_JatyvEXfjeWDrI4/s320/NU%20100th.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="background: white; color: #434343; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-highlight: white;">A giant Nahdlatul Ulama flag is unfurled in the East Java city of
Sidoarjo on Feb. 2, 2023, the movement’s 100<sup>th</sup> anniversary. Photo:
NU Online/Saiful Amar <o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">At the core of the
tug-of-war is whether Islam in the 21<sup>st</sup> century will foster
religiously and politically pluralistic societies or advocate autocracy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">The war pits autocratic,
socially more liberal definitions of Islam that assert a religious obligation
of </span><a href="https://archive.org/details/thestudyquran_201909/mode/2up"><span style="color: #467886; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">‘absolute obedience to the
ruler’</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"> and are propagated by </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/saudi-arabia-and-indonesia-clashing-visions-of-moderate-islam"><span style="color: #467886; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Saudi Arabia</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">, the </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/autocratic-vs-democratic-islam-uae-vs-indonesia"><span style="color: #467886; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">United Arab Emirates</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">, and Egypt’s Al Azhar, the Cairo-based
1,054-year-old citadel of Islamic learning, against Nahdlatul Ulama’s
pluralistic concept of </span><a href="https://www.hudson.org/human-rights/nusantara-islam-seeking-a-new-balance-in-the-muslim-world"><span style="color: #467886; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Nusantara or Humanitarian Islam</span></a><u><span style="color: #467886; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"> t</span></u><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">hat advocates adherence to human rights<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Autocrats’ religious
moderation is designed to meet economic diversification requirements and cater
to youth aspirations for a less publicly restrictive and less ritualistic
religious experience while maintaining tight political control.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">In contrast to the Middle
Eastern states’ version of religious moderation, Nahdlatul Ulama’s concept
stresses religious and political pluralism and the unambigious endorsement of
the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">To anchor its concept,
Nahdlatul Ulama argues that Muslim jurisprudence needs reform to remove what
the movement calls ‘outdated’ or ‘obsolete’ provisions that, among others,
would remove notions of supremacy and the caliphate and introduce categories such
as the citizen with equal rights and the nation-state.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">The Middle East-Asian tug
of war takes on added significance with pressure on Muslim-majority states
since the 9/11 Al Qaeda attacks in New York and Washington, the rise of the
Islamic State a decade later, and energy-rich Gulf states’ efforts to diversify
their economies, to embrace a vague, and undefined notion of ‘moderate Islam.’<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">For much of the last
decade, autocrats chose to ignore Nahdlatul Ulama, the potentially most potent
challenger to their ‘moderate,’ politically restrictive interpretation of the
faith.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">In 2018, Mohammad
Al-Issa, secretary general of the Muslim World, dismissed a suggestion by an
American interlocutor that he meet Nahdlatul Ulama leader Yahya Cholil Staquf
in Mecca. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtSfHC9bTxmfVp4uOnWLbqA8cDyNC7j8qHdCvbr_0t99L9KWGhPQmiUfC37A-GCS8NYs13_8D1MY6Q1BUWROzWSrkc-CpdZwDeeg4JVdTB9o4s0FPBh55S-Yw-IKCvopiz4GmiSDfUhxotKNkVndCTSaSsSING85-Ugfj6mF7WeAOaJrMqW7kwNxSvhaM/s624/Al-Issa.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtSfHC9bTxmfVp4uOnWLbqA8cDyNC7j8qHdCvbr_0t99L9KWGhPQmiUfC37A-GCS8NYs13_8D1MY6Q1BUWROzWSrkc-CpdZwDeeg4JVdTB9o4s0FPBh55S-Yw-IKCvopiz4GmiSDfUhxotKNkVndCTSaSsSING85-Ugfj6mF7WeAOaJrMqW7kwNxSvhaM/s320/Al-Issa.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="background: white; color: #434343; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-highlight: white;">Mohammed al-Issa, the secretary-general of the Muslim World League.
Photo: Screenshot: American Sephardi Federation</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #434343; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">The League is Saudi Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s main vehicle to project the kingdom as religiously
moderate and tolerant.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">"As for the
Indonesian Imam Pak Yahya, I have never heard of him before… I regret to inform
you that it would be difficult for me to meet with Pak Yahya due to an
extremely previous busy schedule of meetings with international Islamic
personalities,” Al-Issa said.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">The cleric’s
standoffishness stemmed as much from refusing to acknowledge Nahdlatul Ulama’s
challenge as from an ingrained perception that Arabs hailing from Islam’s
cradle were real Muslims unlike syncretic forms of the faith like those
prevalent in Indonesia. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">“It’s religious racism,”
said Azyumardi Azra, an Islamic scholar.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Since then, </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/indonesia-a-major-prize-in-the-battle-for-the-soul-of-islam"><span style="color: #467886; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">the League and the UAE have
realised</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"> that ignoring Nahdlatul
Ulama with its 90 million followers in the world’s largest Muslim-majority
state and democracy, a political party represented in President Joko Widodo’s
government, a religious authority of its own, access to the world’s corridors
of power, a widespread educational infrastructure, and a five-million strong
militia, would not neutralise the challenge posed by the group.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">As a result, to counter
the threat, the League and the UAE </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/how-much-is-religious-soft-power-worth-indonesian-president-jokowi-searches-for-answers-in-abu-dhab"><span style="color: #467886; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">opted to engage</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"> with Nahdlatul Ulama in a bid to co-opt it,
while at the same time </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/a-curious-courtship-rival-muslims-woo-hindu-nationalists"><span style="color: #467886; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">competing with the group</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"> through the organisation of rival events and
exerting influence in the world’s corridors of power.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Mr. Al-Issa secured a win
when in 2022, the League co-hosted with Nahdlatul Ulama the Religion Forum 20,
a summit of religious leaders in Bali on the eve of the Indonesia-chaired Group
of 20 gathering of the heads of the world’s largest economies.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">The League basked in the
spotlight as a “non-government” promoter of inter-faith dialogue and tolerance
although it is a wholly government-controlled organisation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Even so, the League had
hardly any visible impact on the Forum’s proceedings, much of which adhered to
Nahdlatul Ulama’s agenda that is anathema to Mr. Al-Issa’s ambitions and those
of his political master.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">That has not stopped
autocrats from attempting to co-opt Nahdlatul Ulama with little, if any,
visible success.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Nahdlatul Ulama officials
insist that engagement with their rivals does not come at the price of
compromising on principles.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">On the contrary, they
argue, gestures like awarding the group a </span><a href="https://civilizationalvalues.org/2024_02_05_zayed-award-for-human-fraternity/"><span style="color: #467886; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">prestigious Emirati prize</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"> in February and Al Azhar’s earlier honouring
of Nahdlatul Ulama’s beloved and legendary Al-Azhar-educated leader,
Abdurrahman Wahid, Indonesia’s first post-dictatorship democratically, enhance
Nahdlatul Ulama’s prestige in the Muslim Middle East and beyond.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMqvDKFKW7uk9Tx8tpFIDPeHRa9hFdiRmX7AE-jk6A9hIjGY7Uk0vVGGEkjlFlXTJpLBAJi7Hi-VqFv0QAh7d5QEbfFdQVj9B82Ye77GGAv4xga7dJ0BdkaO14adsHRjkD93qQ6rmw5ZgcNUurFtGufTb_7zRej3bxQVkIx-13oVTtnefaSEk4qSVpGXA/s624/Zayed%20Award%20NU.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="260" data-original-width="624" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMqvDKFKW7uk9Tx8tpFIDPeHRa9hFdiRmX7AE-jk6A9hIjGY7Uk0vVGGEkjlFlXTJpLBAJi7Hi-VqFv0QAh7d5QEbfFdQVj9B82Ye77GGAv4xga7dJ0BdkaO14adsHRjkD93qQ6rmw5ZgcNUurFtGufTb_7zRej3bxQVkIx-13oVTtnefaSEk4qSVpGXA/s320/Zayed%20Award%20NU.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #434343; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Indonesia’s Nahdlatul Ulama and
Muhammadiyah recognized for their contributions to humanity and to
international peace and security. Photo: civilizationalvalues.org</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">“I would…like to take
this opportunity to invite people of goodwill of every faith and nation to </span><a href="https://civilizationalvalues.org/2024_02_05_zayed-award-for-human-fraternity/"><span style="color: #467886; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">join us in building a global
movement</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"> to foster the emergence
of a truly just and harmonious world order founded upon respect for the equal
rights and dignity of every human being,” Mr. Staquf said as he accepted the
Zayed Award for Human Fraternity.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Mr. Staquf was referring
to a grassroots movement for shared civilisational values that Nahdlatul Ulama
through its Center for Shared Civilisational Values hopes to inspire. The
movement’s envisioned values extend beyond the advocacy of lofty principles the
UAE professes to embrace.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Alongside Nahdlatul
Ulama, the </span><a href="https://www.zayedaward.org/en"><span style="color: #467886; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">award was also awarded</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"> to Muhammadiyah, Indonesia’s second largest
Muslim civil society movement, cardiac surgeon Magdi Yacoub, and Sister Nelly
Leon Correa, who supports women in prison.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg1FviIM8kbBIb6AOqS8_gMNi-OXbdpfngIVM321jSAAJkBZ27PNVik-wPKZi71BXk7FFtJqqGVvOsU-nRiyunj-yA6GuvfzLZdFMHwPgYyCFFmF-zgrEYloO3YfoaPHqPZfbZrNtL8xdl5iU0pZ_L9Th0nZJFQejNhx8skFBcPAjJXdbpEpzNJva9Ojo/s624/Zayed%20Award%202024.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg1FviIM8kbBIb6AOqS8_gMNi-OXbdpfngIVM321jSAAJkBZ27PNVik-wPKZi71BXk7FFtJqqGVvOsU-nRiyunj-yA6GuvfzLZdFMHwPgYyCFFmF-zgrEYloO3YfoaPHqPZfbZrNtL8xdl5iU0pZ_L9Th0nZJFQejNhx8skFBcPAjJXdbpEpzNJva9Ojo/s320/Zayed%20Award%202024.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #434343; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Photo: civilizationalvalues.org<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Days earlier, Al-Azhar
honoured the life and legacy of Mr. Wahid who inspired Humanitarian Islam and
the notion of shared civlisational values, even though senior Al-Azhar figures
attending Nahdlatul Ulama conferences in recent years refrained from endorsing,
</span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/who-are-genuine-muslim-moderates-separating-the-wheat-from-the-chaff"><span style="color: #467886; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">if not rejected some of the
group’s key initiatives</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"> such as
a call for the abolishment of the concept of a caliphate. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWKZpPj4EiAE_YqkbRwunnZhJM5NvM6R90XF6x8fSXC0UCinW_PnIuyChve0MHdVzB9KsNFqq9qUarf9h0sP3YrHAfM9q12F7sTYNGVwNM8aw1q2EVND-DR0kFoX75wPL6yOfnn0m3n-uA3aCSgF0moWhrbdiKJlK922stnXThZeLEt98l1x7jifFocN4/s722/Al%20Azhar%20Wahid.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="459" data-original-width="722" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWKZpPj4EiAE_YqkbRwunnZhJM5NvM6R90XF6x8fSXC0UCinW_PnIuyChve0MHdVzB9KsNFqq9qUarf9h0sP3YrHAfM9q12F7sTYNGVwNM8aw1q2EVND-DR0kFoX75wPL6yOfnn0m3n-uA3aCSgF0moWhrbdiKJlK922stnXThZeLEt98l1x7jifFocN4/s320/Al%20Azhar%20Wahid.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #434343; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Photo: civilizationalvalues.org<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Unlike Al-Azhar
luminaries that declined invitations to discuss the caliphate’s fate at a
conference in Surabaya Mr. Al-Issa, the head of the Muslim World League, chose
to ignore Nahdlatul Ulama's proposition in his remarks on video after
cancelling his attendance.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Given Saudi practice, Mr.
Al-Issa had good reason to ignore Nahdlatul Ulama’s initiatives to reform
Islamic jurisprudence to ensure it upholds human rights and mitigates against
discrimination irrespective of ethnicity, creed, or belief.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">“The </span><a href="https://lselive.eckoenterprise.net/events/20240205/webcast?redirected=1&stream_id=15681"><span style="color: #467886; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Saudi religious tradition is
very sectarian</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">. It refuses
to recognise other Muslims… (They) are regarded as outside true Islam and
should be Islamised… The Shiites like others were not regarded as true Muslims
theologically,” said Saudi scholar and dissident Madawi al-Rasheed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">“The war in Yemen exposed
that Saudi Arabia cannot get rid of its religious nationalism all together. It
cannot get rid of the sectarianism of (its) religious nationalist narrative
that excluded other Muslims who did not subscribe to the Wahhabi tradition,”
Ms. Al-Rasheed added.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">She noted that Mr. Bin
Salman invited the kingdom’s religious scholars to visit the Saudi border to
inspire Saudi troops, by advising them that they were waging jihad against the
rafidah, a derogatory ultraconservative Sunni Muslim reference to Shiites, whom
Saudi conservatives view as heretics. Yemen’s Houthi rebels are Zaidis, a
Shiite Muslim sect.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">In February, authorities
arrested ten soccer fans and summoned 150 other supporters of Saudi First
Division club Al Safa FC for </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/soccer-incidents-call-into-question-fundaments-of-saudi-iranian-detente"><span style="color: #467886; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">chanting Shiite Muslim slogans
and songs</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"> during a match against
Al Bukayriyah FC in the city of Safwa in the kingdom’s Shiite-majority Eastern
Province.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Saudi authorities
asserted that fans’ chants were “sectarian.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">The sports ministry
dissolved Al Safa’s board immediately after the incident for failing to adhere
to the kingdom’s laws and regulations.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">In addition, the Saudi
Football Federation’s Disciplinary and Ethics Committee ordered Al Safa to pay
a US$53,300 fine. It also banned club fans from attending the team’s next five
league matches.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">The committee asserted
that the fans had chanted slogans and songs that “violated the provisions of
the disciplinary and ethics regulations.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Speaking before the
latest soccer incident, Ms. Madawi noted that Mr. Bin Salman’s brand of Saudi
nationalism that emphasises a Saudi than an Arab or Muslim national identity
has reinforced, not replaced, religious minorities’ and regional sub-identities.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">“It generates a reaction,
namely a revival of sub-identities,” particularly among groups who feel they
have been excluded from Mr. Bin Salman’s effort to recast Saudi identity,” Ms.
Al-Rasheed said. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk136859387"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i></a><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk136859387;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk136859387;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk136859387;"></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></i></span><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">‘The Battle for the Soul of Islam’ is James’
forthcoming book.<o:p></o:p></span></p><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p></p>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-18885893020698364432024-02-27T01:21:00.002+08:002024-02-27T01:21:57.805+08:00Ceasefire talks are about more than a Gaza truce and prisoner exchange.<p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPqdxrPMiwB1tbELNbZLjqqw-lHfD2v9dcEEJHiTfVJqYYdNtbccwnYnmGT_Gxj3Y9TBUWTAUtVuBPwhzd-3h2Vy1d3f_m8RBeY6zEVHIiiQL9pqUhkF6c1TYqATVhfcJAidXWWfSC-EuXY30fOyPK-OsA3xRvA27o52yfL0Vc81m_mxJMx4vbs0lqfU8/s1280/Ceasefire%20talks%20260220.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPqdxrPMiwB1tbELNbZLjqqw-lHfD2v9dcEEJHiTfVJqYYdNtbccwnYnmGT_Gxj3Y9TBUWTAUtVuBPwhzd-3h2Vy1d3f_m8RBeY6zEVHIiiQL9pqUhkF6c1TYqATVhfcJAidXWWfSC-EuXY30fOyPK-OsA3xRvA27o52yfL0Vc81m_mxJMx4vbs0lqfU8/s320/Ceasefire%20talks%20260220.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">By
James M. Dorsey</span></div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
the support of its readers. If you believe that the column and podcast add
value to your understanding and that of the broader public, please consider
becoming a paid subscriber by clicking on the subscription button at </span></i><a href="http://www.jamesmdorsey.substack.com/"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">http://www.jamesmdorsey.substack.com</span></i></a><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> and choosing one of the
subscription options. Thank you.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="font-family: Aptos, serif;">To watch a video version of this story on YouTube
please click</span></em><a href="https://youtu.be/qug1L-MNXrU" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "DengXian Light"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> here.</span></em></a><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "DengXian Light"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></u></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="font-family: Aptos, serif;">An audio podcast is available on </span></em></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/ceasefire-talks-are-about-more-than-a-gaza-truce-and-prisoner-exchange" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "DengXian Light"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud.</span></a><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">A
proposed temporary Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange appears designed to buy
war-battered Gazans relief while enabling Israel and Hamas to claim a success. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">However,
whether Israel or Hamas emerges as the ultimate victor will be determined by
whether the truce becomes permanent and the war ends.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Negotiated
by Qatar, Egypt, the United States, Israel, and Hamas, the deal would be
whittled down to the first stage of an earlier three-phase proposal that envisioned
three 45-day periods during which a permanent ceasefire would be negotiated.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The
whittled-down plan suggests that the parties, except for Israel, who is
determined to continue the war, hope the truce will create space for a
negotiated permanent ceasefire. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Hamas
has yet to formally respond to the latest proposal but a senior official, told
Al Jazeera, “The atmosphere of optimism does not reflect reality."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">For
his part, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu asserted that “if Hamas
goes down from its delusional claims and brings them down to Earth, we’ll have
the progress that we all want.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhal1zUXWJPxjFODaoFGm8q001vLUSeyn5vOWCRUcht0URE1AV3Emf08cd0lZlfyurnoaIeCSWEHFZ1iuJD3QpTbUCTcf-v6_QuqyZ5Q41UvPFJpUfOfvY1RHLsJK0OAt4tTAlgcMX-nfqCGpKolqI1r7PqZgOHo10gF0ZvD_ucC-BU7x7UTHjMUBSsKNI/s1430/Netanyahu-3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="894" data-original-width="1430" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhal1zUXWJPxjFODaoFGm8q001vLUSeyn5vOWCRUcht0URE1AV3Emf08cd0lZlfyurnoaIeCSWEHFZ1iuJD3QpTbUCTcf-v6_QuqyZ5Q41UvPFJpUfOfvY1RHLsJK0OAt4tTAlgcMX-nfqCGpKolqI1r7PqZgOHo10gF0ZvD_ucC-BU7x7UTHjMUBSsKNI/s320/Netanyahu-3.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu gives a press conference on January 18, 2024. Photo: Kobi
Gideon/GPO</span></i><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">This
weekend, Israel’s war cabinet decided to </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/25/israeli-delegation-expected-in-qatar-for-more-gaza-talks"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">send a delegation to Qatar</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> for further talks.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">In </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/talks-on-gaza-truce-hostage-deal-said-to-resume-in-qatar-as-optimism-mounts/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">a nod to Hamas demands</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">, Israel would under the plan
redeploy but not withdraw its troops from Gaza and allow the return to the
northern part of the Strip of internally displaced Palestinian women and
children. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Hamas
has insisted on a full Israeli withdrawal and the unrestricted return of
Palestinians to their often-destroyed homes.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The
plan constitutes an attempt to lower the temperature during Ramadan, Islam’s upcoming
holy month of fasting that is likely to shine a spotlight on Jerusalem’s Al
Aqsa Mosque, the faith’s third holiest site, as a renewed flashpoint fuelling
emotions across the Muslim world. Ramadan begins on March 10.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Some
analysts suggest Hamas’ possible willingness to discuss a temporary rather than
a permanent ceasefire constitutes </span><a href="https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/sinwar-mashal-and-israels-dilemma-day-after#utm_term=READ%20THIS%20ITEM%20ON%20OUR%20WEBSITE&utm_campaign=Sinwar%25252C%20Mashal%25252C%20and%20Israel%5Cu2019s%20Dilemma%20%28Neumann%20%7C%20PolicyWatch%203838%29&utm_content=email&utm_source=Act-On+Software&utm_medium=email&cm_mmc=Act-On%20Software-_-email-_-Sinwar%25252C%20Mashal%25252C%20and%20Israel%5Cu2019s%20Dilemma%20%28Neumann%20%7C%20PolicyWatch%203838%29-_-READ%20THIS%20ITEM%20ON%20OUR%20WEBSITE"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">a victory for
the group’s Gaza-based leader, Yahya Sinwar</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4n1AvjUOlEfN80_uTy7lyalTGcnAzH37OVk04TI5vmWhIKapkjSlESwLxh4toQyFjeuu7Ib_Lt62BWlN-S2lDBMlB0RWipcjO2nQoaFOg0VgE4FBScHpB54b0A96ZhDNGvggJ3XMK7bgA5late9uSdt8Tr_K94MBR6T-UVYXi83fBPHn76OCFvcC-ZAE/s1950/Sinwar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1097" data-original-width="1950" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4n1AvjUOlEfN80_uTy7lyalTGcnAzH37OVk04TI5vmWhIKapkjSlESwLxh4toQyFjeuu7Ib_Lt62BWlN-S2lDBMlB0RWipcjO2nQoaFOg0VgE4FBScHpB54b0A96ZhDNGvggJ3XMK7bgA5late9uSdt8Tr_K94MBR6T-UVYXi83fBPHn76OCFvcC-ZAE/s320/Sinwar.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: left;"><i><span lang="EN-PH" style="color: #0d0d0d; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-PH; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-PH; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-themetint: 242;">Hamas Gaza-based leader,
Yahya Sinwar. Photo: EPA</span></i><span style="color: #0d0d0d; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-themetint: 242;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Mr.
Sinwar, who tops Israel’s most wanted list, symbolises Israel’s failure to
achieve its goals five months into its devastating military campaign. Israel
has yet to capture or kill any of Hamas’ Gaza-based most senior leaders.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Israel’s
recent controversial military focus on Rafah, the densely overpopulated most
southern part of Gaza, is driven in part by the belief that Mr. Sinwar and
other senior figures shelter in underground tunnels in Rafah surrounded by
Hamas-held hostages as human shields.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">“Once
we begin the Rafah operation, the intense phase of the fighting is weeks away
from completion. Not months… If we have a (hostage) deal, it will be delayed
somewhat, but it will happen. </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-to-cbs-once-israel-begins-rafah-operation-well-be-weeks-away-from-total-victory/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">It has to be done</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> because total victory is our
goal and total victory is within reach,” Mr. Netanyahu said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Convinced
that Israel will not end the war soon on terms that would allow for a credible
process to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with the creation of an
independent Palestinian state, Mr. Sinwar, widely viewed as a hardliner within
Hamas, reportedly sees a temporary truce as an opportunity to regroup the
group’s military wing.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Moreover,
the truce would give Mr. Sinwar a tactical success with an exchange of 40 of
the 136 Hamas-held hostages and bodies of captives killed during the war for an
unspecified number of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, particularly if
they include inmates </span><a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/24/israel-hamas-gaza-hostage-talks-progress-ceasefire"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">sentenced by
Israeli courts to life imprisonment for killing Israelis</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4tx5s31Att07KvxrXjO1ZM9EYeuBTL6Cs_J8bGG_vtoNpaVQnvE94JvlcpSm5lr_SfpRFLi0hWdBWZLNw-0x3E8wdAXtZV4PY4EUAx-w3aoWt37dmsT-QxhTB7DaJA_6I2xEn2oRj6bTqrvygmygLm4hyphenhyphenIDpk6EEeBTuEWvlR0LuDP-3M9txUm3tjEB4/s624/Hamas%20gunman.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="390" data-original-width="624" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4tx5s31Att07KvxrXjO1ZM9EYeuBTL6Cs_J8bGG_vtoNpaVQnvE94JvlcpSm5lr_SfpRFLi0hWdBWZLNw-0x3E8wdAXtZV4PY4EUAx-w3aoWt37dmsT-QxhTB7DaJA_6I2xEn2oRj6bTqrvygmygLm4hyphenhyphenIDpk6EEeBTuEWvlR0LuDP-3M9txUm3tjEB4/s320/Hamas%20gunman.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: left;"><i><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Hamas
and Islamic Jihad terrorists stand guard as a Red Cross vehicle transports
released hostages in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip on November 28, 2023.
(Flash90)<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Hamas
took some 250 people hostage during its October 7 attack on Israel, more than
100 of whom were released for Palestinians incarcerated in Israel during a
one-week, Qatar-mediated truce in November.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The
exchange ensured that more Israeli hostages have been killed than have so far
been freed by Israeli troops.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Mr.
Sinwar may also believe that </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-02-24/ty-article/.premium/police-detain-19-anti-govt-protesters-in-tel-aviv-use-water-cannon-to-disperse-protest/0000018d-dcbb-d47b-a1af-deff19ce0000"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">widespread anti-government
protests in Israel</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> and
demands that the government prioritise the release of the hostages rather than
the war strengthen Hamas’ position.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">In
addition, he may be counting on his demand for the release of Palestinians
sentenced to life in prison sparking the fall of Mr. Netanyahu’s government.
Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners have </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/haaretz-today/2024-02-05/ty-article/.highlight/why-israels-far-right-opposes-a-deal-to-free-israeli-hostages-held-by-hamas/0000018d-7a76-d9fb-a9fd-feff97bb0000"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">threatened to
leave the government if the prime minister caves into Hamas’ demands</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The
far-right initially opposed the November exchange but ultimately acquiesced.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Sharing
with Mr. Netanyahu a callous disregard for innocent Palestinian lives, Mr.
Sinwar has miscalculated if he expected international pressure to disrupt
Israel’s apparent strategy of </span><a href="https://www.972mag.com/mass-assassination-factory-israel-calculated-bombing-gaza/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">targeting Palestinian civil
society</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> to
“create a shock” that would “lead civilians to put pressure on Hamas.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><a name="_Hlk159762452"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Israel has ignored widespread international
condemnation and mild public US criticism. Gazans, despite </span></a><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/blinken-finds-a-hardened-political-landscape-as-he-tours-the-middle-east"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">signs of opposition</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">, have failed to rise up against Hamas, whose popularity on
the West Bank and in the Palestinian Diaspora has risen.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Compounding Israel’s failure
to achieve its war goals, the Biden administration has </span><a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/24/gaza-humanitarian-aid-israel-hamas-police-biden"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">asked Israel to stop targeting Hamas’ police force</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> that provides security for aid trucks entering Gaza and
attempts to restore a semblance of law and order. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The administration warned
Israel that attacking the police could exacerbate an already dire humanitarian
crisis and warned that it could spark a "total breakdown of law and
order."<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><a href="https://twitter.com/afalkhatib/status/1761863781951639791"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Shielding the police force is a double-edged sword</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Police have cracked down on
merchants hoarding badly needed goods to drive up prices but have also seized
items in support of Hamas. Similarly, fuel siphoned off from aid trucks
entering Gaza is sold on the black market at exorbitant prices.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">It’s a problem that in Gaza’s
dire circumstances would be prevalent regardless of who controls the police.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Complicating Mr. Sinwar’s
calculations, and those of Mr. Netanyahu, is </span><a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.washingtonpost.com_opinions_2024_02_01_us-2Dbiden-2Dadministration-2Dsaudi-2Darabia-2Dmbs-2Dnetanyahu-2Ddeal_&d=DwMDaQ&c=009klHSCxuh5AI1vNQzSO0KGjl4nbi2Q0M1QLJX9BeE&r=ZMPjogNy-HmrQg8v-M09IOyqF1RP1_bSmRV_m041Kr7OM8VduFxwmlUu9th_KeLj&m=4ndCkKC6rB3QP-YOpTGZsvtpCis8DFXg2EWUIZzCtBnMhgobx-AnxM_9otWN434Y&s=AM46vDrubuzgfZGjtMYXBT9S25kocAg_vYsn-j9H9IA&e="><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">a Saudi-backed three-pronged US attempt</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> to tie a broader Middle East deal.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The deal would involve the
temporary ceasefire becoming permanent and ending the hostilities, the
establishment of Saudi-Israeli diplomatic relations, and agreement on a
credible pathway towards an independent Palestinian state.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The US and Saudi Arabia hope
Mr. Netanyahu, an opportunist who prioritises his personal and political interests,
may be sufficiently seduced by the ability to claim credit for formalising
relations with the Middle East’s crown jewel Arab state to risk the break-up of
his government and reverse his rejection of a Palestinian state.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">It
remains unclear whether differences between Mr. Sinwar and some of Hamas’ exile
leaders involved in the negotiations to achieve a ceasefire are tactical or
strategic when it comes to the group’s endgame in the war, its potential
willingness to embrace a historic compromise, and its post-war posture.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Hamas
negotiators have insisted that the group would only agree to a permanent
ceasefire that would end the war. Even so, Mr. Sinwar, based in Gaza rather
than cushy Doha, the Qatari capital, is the group’s ultimate decision maker.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The
difference in what drives Messrs. Sinwar and Netanyahu and explains their
callousness lies in </span><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/israels-netanyahu-self-destruction"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">an anecdote</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> recently recalled by Aluf
Benn, the editor-in-chief of Israel’s widely respected Haaretz newspaper.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Mr.
Benn remembered former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Dayan’s words at the 1956
funeral of an Israeli farmer, brutally murdered by Palestinian militants.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRRTI3fS4Q30ZNcNoasiZFOLbBKhoxQSYVpZpetZVetCqZuPAE_LG4YCG2Y-uZCFlIVxOLcLk7vsGULK5d77Jd61GhPMRq5cg-Ib3u4ksM9VJOHD15FDiRtYRVE8GemyOCFKiALU219lLUAM8Cgf_WsKUb0Y3JEEoDbyCsi6Ak43jgKMqMqOfY_UoxsBA/s1430/Moshe%20Dayan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="974" data-original-width="1430" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRRTI3fS4Q30ZNcNoasiZFOLbBKhoxQSYVpZpetZVetCqZuPAE_LG4YCG2Y-uZCFlIVxOLcLk7vsGULK5d77Jd61GhPMRq5cg-Ib3u4ksM9VJOHD15FDiRtYRVE8GemyOCFKiALU219lLUAM8Cgf_WsKUb0Y3JEEoDbyCsi6Ak43jgKMqMqOfY_UoxsBA/s320/Moshe%20Dayan.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #0d0d0d; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-themetint: 242;">Then-defense
minister Moshe Dayan makes a speech during the 1973 Yom Kippur War in an
undated photograph. Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit/Defense Ministry Archive<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">“Let
us not cast blame on the murderers. For eight years, they have been sitting in
the refugee camps in Gaza, and before their eyes we have been transforming the
lands and the villages where they and their fathers dwelt into our estate,” Mr.
Dayan said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Mr.
Dayan did not criticise Israeli policy or propose accommodation of the
Palestinians. Instead, he acknowledged reality and expressed a willingness to
accept the consequences of the Jewish state’s policy.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">“Let
us not be deterred from seeing the loathing that is inflaming and filling the
lives of hundreds of thousands of Arabs living around us. This is our life’s
choice—to be prepared and armed, strong, and determined, lest the sword be
stricken from our fist and our lives cut down, Mr. Dayan said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Benn concluded from that anecdote that “on October 7,
2023, Dayan’s age-old warning materialised in the bloodiest way possible…
Israelis cannot expect stability if they continue to ignore the Palestinians
and reject their aspirations, their story, and even their presence. This is the
lesson the country should have learned from Dayan’s age-old warning.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It’s a lesson Mr. Sinwar brutally embraced and Mr.
Netanyahu and many Israelis, perhaps even a majority, have yet to grasp.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Optimists will argue that a temporary ceasefire will pause,
if not halt the human carnage in Gaza and potentially open the door to an end
to the war and a credible peace process.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Dayan’s cynical realism is probably more realistic.
Little suggests that a post-Netanyahu Israel would fundamentally be more
willing to accommodate Palestinian aspirations.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Worse still, the much-touted two-state solution may prove
to be the best of bad options, particularly in the wake of a war that has
traumatised Israelis and Palestinians in unprecedented ways.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Much like the 19<sup>th</sup> century experience of
Russian Jews, the 1923 Turkish Greek ‘population exchange,’ this century’s
plight of the Rohingya, and the potential depopulation of Gaza, a two-state
solution could produce two hostile states rather than two countries seeking to
cooperate.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDwYXz0CbVfo6gZSboneh8CuSB28xdA76Y4bKpnQuEis_3X6kkr7AJ3imx0ddGhzMZUd6Hp8aaMLXyT9OXVzAIb8vLq3mUDYCtOH5cwnAmzB_Eb99DKK4QEMSaFqObbMYsEImuQTExLqugL3s-rHuIhNgdLSvuiajf5LjvF7NS8MSJCOsvKqy2UW0r9fE/s624/Royhinga.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="326" data-original-width="624" height="167" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDwYXz0CbVfo6gZSboneh8CuSB28xdA76Y4bKpnQuEis_3X6kkr7AJ3imx0ddGhzMZUd6Hp8aaMLXyT9OXVzAIb8vLq3mUDYCtOH5cwnAmzB_Eb99DKK4QEMSaFqObbMYsEImuQTExLqugL3s-rHuIhNgdLSvuiajf5LjvF7NS8MSJCOsvKqy2UW0r9fE/s320/Royhinga.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;"></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Rohingya refugees who fled Myanmar wait to be
let through by Bangladeshi border guards after crossing the border in Palang
Khali, Bangladesh, Oct. 9, 2017. Photo: REUTERS/Damir Sagolj<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Referring to the Indian subcontinent’s post- 1947
partition, political scientist Manilo Graziano noted that “for the
three-quarters of a century since then, India and Pakistan have cultivated a </span><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/05/israel-palestine-two-state-solution-partition-carnage-ethnic-cleansing/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">hostility
punctuated by periodic clashes, terror attacks, and at least four official wars</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,
exploited and exacerbated by the great powers for their own games on the
international chessboard.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the Middle East, Mr. Graziano argued that it “would be
naive, to say the least,” to assume that Israeli Palestinians, who account for
about 20 percent of the Israeli population, or the 20 percent of Israeli
settlers on the West Bank who would fall under Palestinian rule if they chose
to stay in a Palestinian state would be allowed to remain in place over time.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“The tragedy in which Israelis and Palestinians are
imprisoned today is exacerbated by the fact that the only solution that
external actors have proposed would simply make their situation worse, plunging
them into what philosopher Thomas Hobbes called the ‘state of nature’—that is,
a permanent ‘war of every man against every man,’” Mr. Gaziano said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/jewish-arab-violence-rolls-through-cities-like-wildfire-with-police-overwhelmed/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
spectre of civil strife</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> raised its head during the 2021 Gaza
war with scenes of Israeli Jews and Israeli Palestinians clashing violently and
assaulting each other in Israeli cities considered models of coexistence.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Far-right members of Mr. Netanyahu’s cabinet have used
the spectre of continued strife to justify their rejection of a Palestinian
state.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Ultra-nationalist Israeli Heritage Minister Amichai
Eliyahu, scion of a prominent Sephardic rabbi family, warned in recent days
that such a state would demonstrate “terror pays and will get you what you
want.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeTzvECREGsMuaMMJPVcYYPA8gKlhbPPRH6uaAhFAlEJKIrOz7hwHZWInfO5i_Zz1XmNnn257dhk9HuJO-lXw6M5Lnx0nc85DBQW-ZS8-Trs1-rKEVM0bX0DqRxbL0UtmOrjrNslv9cBFDO9MMTJBYn3KwVwZ7JJ3XqGLd7GlfKnBVh9DzTThfG_fuNgo/s624/Amichai%20Eliyahu.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="624" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeTzvECREGsMuaMMJPVcYYPA8gKlhbPPRH6uaAhFAlEJKIrOz7hwHZWInfO5i_Zz1XmNnn257dhk9HuJO-lXw6M5Lnx0nc85DBQW-ZS8-Trs1-rKEVM0bX0DqRxbL0UtmOrjrNslv9cBFDO9MMTJBYn3KwVwZ7JJ3XqGLd7GlfKnBVh9DzTThfG_fuNgo/s320/Amichai%20Eliyahu.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;"></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #0d0d0d; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-themetint: 242;">Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu at the Prime Minister's Office in
Jerusalem on January 8, 2023. (Olivier Fitoussi/Flash90)<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Further clouding prospects for genuine
Israeli-Palestinian peace is the fact that the risk of post-settlement
hostility is pervasive regardless of whether the resolution involves a
two-state solution, a confederation, or a one-state solution.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">All of which suggests that even a temporary ceasefire
that offers Gazans some respite, the warring parties an opportunity to breathe,
and potentially enables winds of change to blow is better than the
uninterrupted Gaza carnage for which innocent Palestinians pay the price.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The
Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><i style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-PH" style="color: #0d0d0d; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-PH; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-PH; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-themetint: 242;"><br /></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: #0d0d0d; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-themetint: 242;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p></p>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-45656828757674810622024-02-24T11:52:00.001+08:002024-02-24T11:52:20.973+08:00Netanyahu’s ‘Day After’ Gaza Plan is a Non-starter<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisRpmoJ4ZRmBYpbNBPmNp2B21zq8WXm6RKJ6GSptP4-TiMYixBGcYHkTHZ6fbyh_hlEU15DG1UW81D8DWECMB9K5r428lDQahkW6PTN-A77vXDaQJw0uZfqSYoQYE2eM27LD0iUn0oLGnfYXtTvAkmiErtk9AhqGhW2nF0dD1YyKbFydIqKhTGLkFEh2s/s1280/Netanyahu%20Day%20after.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisRpmoJ4ZRmBYpbNBPmNp2B21zq8WXm6RKJ6GSptP4-TiMYixBGcYHkTHZ6fbyh_hlEU15DG1UW81D8DWECMB9K5r428lDQahkW6PTN-A77vXDaQJw0uZfqSYoQYE2eM27LD0iUn0oLGnfYXtTvAkmiErtk9AhqGhW2nF0dD1YyKbFydIqKhTGLkFEh2s/s320/Netanyahu%20Day%20after.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By James M. Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
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<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To
watch a video version of this story on YouTube please click</span></em><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://youtu.be/Zu15q8lEgvM" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> here.</span></em></a></span><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></u></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An audio podcast is available
on </span></em></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/netanyahus-day-after-gaza-plan-is-a-non-starter" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud.</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s plan for
Gaza’s future once the guns fall silent is likely to be a non-starter. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnwWf82GSniZREXNuAPysI5XrQ1CXUgYxzevQV5YCb1Q9AtCq08qPZdOEm8KzoQ9Om0NkzKXtbRUsTc13Xqq7N1rF6TyMQsgj3g5OA98VnlSvhHTADkWdF8pkNcUDL4FvTGnDPKwJBrW1P6VZSnR21lExD12AmC0SXiVEpcE-acrELruRbYq50Koxlz4A/s1430/Netanyahu-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="894" data-original-width="1430" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnwWf82GSniZREXNuAPysI5XrQ1CXUgYxzevQV5YCb1Q9AtCq08qPZdOEm8KzoQ9Om0NkzKXtbRUsTc13Xqq7N1rF6TyMQsgj3g5OA98VnlSvhHTADkWdF8pkNcUDL4FvTGnDPKwJBrW1P6VZSnR21lExD12AmC0SXiVEpcE-acrELruRbYq50Koxlz4A/s320/Netanyahu-2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="background: white; color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a
press conference. Photo: (Kobi Gideon/GPO)<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Rather than provide a pathway to a resolution of the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the plan aims to squash Palestinian national
aspirations and ensure continued Israeli control. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It also assumes, against all odds, that Israel will
succeed in destroying Hamas. Destroying Hamas is a goal of Israel’s war that </span><a href="https://en.idi.org.il/articles/52976"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">a majority of Israelis
believe is unachievable</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Netanyahu’s proposal, entitled ‘Plan for the day
after Hamas," also flies in the face of </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/08/israel-cannot-reoccupy-gaza-at-end-of-conflict-says-antony-blinken"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">formal
and/or informal red lines</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> laid down by the United States; various
Arab states, including Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the Palestine Authority,
and, yes, Hamas.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Those red lines include no Israeli reoccupation of any
part of Gaza, no reduction of Gazan territory, and no rejection of Palestinian
national rights to a state alongside Israel. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The red lines also mandate a credible process to resolve
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a concept absent from Mr. Netanyahu’s
suggestions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Netanyahu’s plan makes reconstruction of
war-devastated and traumatised Gaza conditional on Israel’s ability to
demilitarise the Strip and reshape Palestinian attitudes and aspirations in
Israel’s mold to </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-02-23/ty-article/.premium/netanyahu-unveils-israels-plan-for-postwar-gaza-full-demilitarization-and-closing-unrwa/0000018d-d348-df79-a5cd-f37edde10000"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">ensure
compliance with Israeli rather than Palestinian needs</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“Rebuilding Gaza will only be possible once the Strip has
been demilitarized and once a process of deradicalization has started. The
rehabilitation plan will be carried out with funding from and under the
leadership of countries of which Israel approves,” the plan said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyjJ6bqU_eDQyEKLbqjxzpbgYtXt2tSN7jNKf5YIuNIPIgeCM0XjeCZvyR8YLLPF_5YkPYeNtnuP8K5NMu8noS4qiuc_7HHP0o9LZsibiPZBo2xPeJBq_ysMshThFu3WCw_9G2VKL4M9SIlyaU6qN15pRfExSGRxZsWhWsvc6SQbBYbb7IgzezVstJA24/s624/Jawhara%20Tower%20Gaza.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyjJ6bqU_eDQyEKLbqjxzpbgYtXt2tSN7jNKf5YIuNIPIgeCM0XjeCZvyR8YLLPF_5YkPYeNtnuP8K5NMu8noS4qiuc_7HHP0o9LZsibiPZBo2xPeJBq_ysMshThFu3WCw_9G2VKL4M9SIlyaU6qN15pRfExSGRxZsWhWsvc6SQbBYbb7IgzezVstJA24/s320/Jawhara%20Tower%20Gaza.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">Palestinian workers clear rubble from the al-Jawhara Tower
in Gaza City. Photo: <span style="background: white;">MOHAMMED ABED/AFP via Getty
Images</span></span></i><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If anything, Mr. Netanyahu’s plan highlights the yawning
gap between Israel’s vision of the future and that of all other major players. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As a result, any effort that transcends ending the war
and freezing the conflict will have to involve significant change not only on
the Palestinian side, embodied in the phrase, </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/pa-launches-reforms-aimed-at-revitalization-but-structural-changes-remain-elusive/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘revitalisation
of the Palestine Authority</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,’ but also in Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Ultimately, that change will have to include a
recognition by Israelis and Palestinians that their concerns and fears are
mirror images of one another and need to be taken into account equally and
equitably.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That notion, too, is absent from Mr. Netanyahu’s proposal.
It kicks off with the proposition that “</span><a href="https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-788475#788475"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel
will maintain operational freedom of action in the entire Gaza Strip</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,
without a time limit, for the purpose of preventing the renewal of terrorism
and thwarting threats from Gaza.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Netanyahu ignores the fact that Palestinians are as
traumatised by Israel’s Gaza war conduct as Israelis are by Hamas’ October 7
attack that sparked the latest hostilities and carnage.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In other words, Palestinians feel as much need to be
shielded against Israeli violence as Israelis feel the need for protection
against Palestinian violence.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Implicit in Mr. Netanyahu’s vision is the notion that
Israel has a right to defend itself and ensure its security at whatever price.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">His vision not only denies Palestinians the same right
but also, leaving aside the nature of Palestinian resistance, the right to
oppose occupation and pursue their right to self-determination, anchored in
international law.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In a sign of the times, Ma Xinmin, the Chinese foreign ministry's
legal adviser, this week defended at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) </span><a href="https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1760677521815961747"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">the Palestinian's
right to resistance under international law "including armed struggle</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">",
which “in this context, is distinguished from acts of terrorism."<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKrOJ-erTq4FVVpYvKWVVOe6lEDXwL_nyZ8o7alYigm9puhrvYSZg7FT1TredkDdr1Pr5cX8Tjz_yU3tVkPZcB1ZsPJyYGgcMg46BVmPYJMlW2J9_iJCkEXQF3t9qhECVkjl0iZkngUse9USGi7OKAWL1ezehLEHHhQnqiRb7fq3sL3DnQoyl2cPHYquU/s1430/Ma%20Xinmin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="889" data-original-width="1430" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKrOJ-erTq4FVVpYvKWVVOe6lEDXwL_nyZ8o7alYigm9puhrvYSZg7FT1TredkDdr1Pr5cX8Tjz_yU3tVkPZcB1ZsPJyYGgcMg46BVmPYJMlW2J9_iJCkEXQF3t9qhECVkjl0iZkngUse9USGi7OKAWL1ezehLEHHhQnqiRb7fq3sL3DnQoyl2cPHYquU/s320/Ma%20Xinmin.jpg" width="320" /></a></div></div></div></div></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">China's Ma Xinmin addresses the
International Court of Justice in a case regarding the impact of Israel's
activities in the West Bank on Palestinians, February 22, 2024. Photo:
Screenshot from UN Web TV<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Ma was speaking during </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/world-court-holds-hearings-israels-occupation-palestinian-territories-2024-02-16/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">week-long
ICJ hearings</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> on the legality of the Israeli occupation of
Palestinian lands.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Netanyahu’s plan explicitly rejects the international
community’s red lines by insisting that a “security space established in the
Gaza Strip in the area bordering Israel will exist as long as there is a
security need for it."<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Adding fuel to the fire, Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right
finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, intends to emphasise his problematic
concept of security by pushing forward in the coming days the </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-02-23/ty-article/.premium/israel-planning-3-000-new-settlement-homes-in-response-to-fatal-terror-attack/0000018d-d30a-d5f7-a3ff-d3fffc380000"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">construction
of more than 3,000 new housing units in Israeli settlements</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> in
the West Bank in response to a Palestinian attack on the Israeli settlement of Ma'aleh
Adumim. One person was killed and ten others wounded in the attack.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In demanding that Israel have a security presence in Gaza,
Mr. Netanyahu is in effect seeking to ensure that no third country or entity would
be a party to governing and rehabilitating post-war Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Netanyahu appears to envision that Israel’s security
presence would be along Gaza’s border with Egypt in a move that is designed to
maintain the kind of control of what goes in and out of the Strip that has
hampered economic and social development in Gaza for almost two decades.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“Israel will maintain a 'southern closure' on the
Gaza-Egypt border, for the purpose of preventing the re-intensification of
terrorist elements in the Gaza Strip. The 'Southern Barrier' will operate, as
much as possible, in cooperation with Egypt and with the assistance of the US
and will be based on measures to prevent smuggling from Egypt both underground
and above ground, including at the Rafah crossing,” according to Mr.
Netanyahu’s proposal.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Netanyahu’s insistence on demilitarization “beyond
what is required for maintaining public order” constitutes an effort to destroy
Hamas’ military capability by other means after its military campaign failed to
achieve its objectives.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Leaving aside Hamas, which insists on ending armed
struggle at the end of a process to resolve the conflict rather than as a
pre-condition, it’s unlikely that any Arab or Palestinian party would engage in
governing Palestinian lands under Israeli tutelage and without a credible peace
process.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Similarly, no Palestinian or Arab party is likely to
engage in a plan that is designed to counter Palestinian national aspirations
under the mum of ‘deradicalisation’ and would involve the dissolution and
replacement of the controversial United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)
and reform of religious, educational, and welfare institutions in the Gaza
Strip.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Despite </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/unrwa-pronounced-guilty-until-proven-innocent-palestinians-pay-the-price"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">recent
Israeli and US claims</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> that 12 UNRWA employees participated in
Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, Israel’s long-standing campaign against the
agency is driven by the fact that its educational materials and social work
allow for the promotion of Palestinian national identity.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaj41aZ61-sBXM7kVs8VpsaaOS6oBWGlEJYqr1ahCUlPeH29Zcj7v3uz3_-G5n3L1ewKuOWyiPaeKRnZhMeTZMa8Y_uPFFYWwc9xqnOCzTfeuwIWOLORP0zs8UftypbHGMPkQE-bBOrLXM42ZJn_wQv0bUywTHt3R4nfJaVYsfLRy1Q3J_zYwyNhnvutw/s1430/UNWRA%20workers.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="953" data-original-width="1430" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaj41aZ61-sBXM7kVs8VpsaaOS6oBWGlEJYqr1ahCUlPeH29Zcj7v3uz3_-G5n3L1ewKuOWyiPaeKRnZhMeTZMa8Y_uPFFYWwc9xqnOCzTfeuwIWOLORP0zs8UftypbHGMPkQE-bBOrLXM42ZJn_wQv0bUywTHt3R4nfJaVYsfLRy1Q3J_zYwyNhnvutw/s320/UNWRA%20workers.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="background: white; color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">Workers of the United Nations Relief and
Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) hand out flour rations and other
supplies to people at a UNRWA warehouse in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.
Photo: Mohammed Abed/AFP</span></i><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Moreover, more than half a century of Israeli occupation
of Palestinian lands illustrates what Mr. Netanyahu means by
‘deradicalisation.’ Israel bans in Israel itself as well as in the occupied
West Bank any expression of Palestinian national identity, including </span><a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israels-parliament-approves-bill-banning-raising-of-palestinian-flag/2900312"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">displaying
a Palestinian flag</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Knesset, Israel’s parliament, this week bolstered Mr.
Netanyahu’s approach by overwhelmingly </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/knesset-votes-resoundingly-against-unilateral-palestinian-state-recognition/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">rejecting
“unilateral” attempts</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> to impose on Israel a timeline for the
creation of an independent Palestinian state.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Netanyahu proposal and the Knesset vote came amid
reports that the United States, Qatar, Egypt, and the Palestine Authority were
working on a </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/14/gaza-peace-israel-palestinian-state/#:~:text=The%20Biden%20administration%20and%20a,as%20the%20next%20several%20weeks."><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">plan
for a comprehensive peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">US President Joe Biden’s top Middle East envoy, </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-envoy-heads-to-region-to-push-hostage-deal-press-israel-on-rafah-offensive/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Brett
McGirk, was in Israel</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> to discuss a temporary ceasefire in the war
and a Hamas-Israel prisoner swap as Mr. Netanyahu made his plan public.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Netanyahu’s vision and the also constitute a response
to the ICJ hearings that could lead the court to declare Israel’s occupation of
Palestinian lands illegal, a finding that would shape any future
Israel-Palestinian negotiations.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The vote implicitly reinforced Mr. Netanyahu’s proposal
that ends with the assertion that "Israel outright rejects international
dictates regarding a permanent settlement with the Palestinians. Such a
settlement will only be achieved through honest negotiations between the
parties, without preconditions."<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Netanyahu is correct that a resolution of the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict needs to be negotiated between Israelis and
Palestinians.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The problem is that in Mr. Netanyahu’s vision Palestinian
negotiators would be compliant negotiators sensitive to Israeli needs rather
than credible representatives of widely held Palestinian national aspirations.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In addition, Mr. Netanyahu’s call for negotiations
without preconditions is deceptive. Mr. Netanyahu’s precondition is that he
will only talk to Palestinians who recognise Israel as a Jewish state and
renounce violence upfront.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That approach was adopted by Palestine Liberation
Organisation (PLO) leader Yasser Arafat when he engaged in the 1993 Oslo Accords.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsffzV3T15pYqjUla0rFYtKIRtIZPVBK5DYLdd1YSnlfnd4DC5Zlg049E4ZFrZEvhADG-ebpClFy4slwCtaLcqgG33TA_eAXmDVbUbzf-2AG_ReS17skvSnRhcRzJYu3DabXQl1VOTtyr2Q4qkYH8oEJtwrVMBtqfMKzvilWsg1rVbR_2N4nbF1P8ALCM/s624/Oslo%20accords.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="393" data-original-width="624" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsffzV3T15pYqjUla0rFYtKIRtIZPVBK5DYLdd1YSnlfnd4DC5Zlg049E4ZFrZEvhADG-ebpClFy4slwCtaLcqgG33TA_eAXmDVbUbzf-2AG_ReS17skvSnRhcRzJYu3DabXQl1VOTtyr2Q4qkYH8oEJtwrVMBtqfMKzvilWsg1rVbR_2N4nbF1P8ALCM/s320/Oslo%20accords.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><i><span style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Aptos; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">Palestine
Liberation Organization (PLO) Chairman Yasser Arafat applauds Israeli Prime
Minister Yitzhak Rabin and US President Bill Clinton at the signing of the Oslo
I Accord on the White House’s South Lawn, Washington DC, September 13, 1993.
Photo: Mark Reinstein / Corbis via Getty Images</span></i><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">More than 30 years later, Palestinians have yet to fulfill
their aspirations.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">No doubt, Palestinians are often their own worst enemy.
However, that does not absolve Israel from responsibility for doing and having
done everything to ensure those aspirations never materialise.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk136859387"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i></a><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-62331512485343437032024-02-23T01:59:00.001+08:002024-02-23T01:59:14.525+08:00Soccer incidents call into question fundaments of Saudi-Iranian detente<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS_gS9iXnW4kOhqB0xB90OrsMiHdPkoxz5skaI446dvwWfFPAv1ATW6K0JpRdHYml0d5ONs1hE4rPHxsIcL9S0Hf0el0dmiXfVKFfvWm-mLCp4W9GsiCtq6rGwL8lShWHGhNshcppe9jnTxs6NxjNHz0LNNrjTvtV_GfWa5qQLwp4XvwqgW1k10wnzcSY/s1280/Soccer%20incidents%20Saudi%20Iran.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS_gS9iXnW4kOhqB0xB90OrsMiHdPkoxz5skaI446dvwWfFPAv1ATW6K0JpRdHYml0d5ONs1hE4rPHxsIcL9S0Hf0el0dmiXfVKFfvWm-mLCp4W9GsiCtq6rGwL8lShWHGhNshcppe9jnTxs6NxjNHz0LNNrjTvtV_GfWa5qQLwp4XvwqgW1k10wnzcSY/s320/Soccer%20incidents%20Saudi%20Iran.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By James M. Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Two recent soccer incidents suggest that beyond optics
little has changed in the Saudi-Iranian rivalry since <a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/china-s-saudi-iranian-mediation-spotlights-flawed-regional-security-policies">China
mediated the restoration of diplomatic relations</a> between the two countries
a year ago.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSH9jvSIA_iMx9d3iJrkVXsw5G4xeCCI_6ZAZ_XtbeG1mkr4fjplB2_HgvTC4dOSHiKyn9z0B0b4gIeTwgqyQzw6vxW2EsEA4aAt3HJ1scxsqPU1TVSmI6Tff94mdwrNlAZOl_1kg3Oy606y7shJ4C2vyHvoVboyhkpMInSzxj-TQ2rZwdbXtG0U_STPY/s599/China%20mediates%20Saudi%20Iran.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="399" data-original-width="599" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSH9jvSIA_iMx9d3iJrkVXsw5G4xeCCI_6ZAZ_XtbeG1mkr4fjplB2_HgvTC4dOSHiKyn9z0B0b4gIeTwgqyQzw6vxW2EsEA4aAt3HJ1scxsqPU1TVSmI6Tff94mdwrNlAZOl_1kg3Oy606y7shJ4C2vyHvoVboyhkpMInSzxj-TQ2rZwdbXtG0U_STPY/s320/China%20mediates%20Saudi%20Iran.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="background: white; color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">Iran’s top security official Ali Shamkhani,
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Musaid Al Aiban, Saudi Arabia’s national
security adviser, posing for a photo after Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed in
Beijing to resume bilateral diplomatic ties <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>China. Photo: Chinese Foreign Ministry/Anadolu
Agency via Getty Images</span></i><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">On the contrary, the Gaza war has highlighted the
potential threat Iran and its non-state allies pose to the kingdom, even if
both countries have toned down their rhetoric, are cautious not to provoke the
other, and have regular diplomatic contact.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The war has reinforced Iran’s positioning as a staunch
supporter of the Palestinians while Arab states struggle to end to the human
carnage in Gaza. The war has also made Iran a key player in determining whether
the Gaza conflict evolves into a regional military conflagration.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even so, the war is not all good news for Iran. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If anything, the war has strengthened Saudi Arabia’s
conviction that its security is vested in a closer defense relationship with
the United States and formal relations with Israel, despite the kingdom’s
condemnation of the Gaza carnage and criticism of the US refusal to force an
immediate permanent ceasefire. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">To be sure, the war has raised the bar for Saudi
recognition of Israel but has not changed the kingdom’s fundamental strategic
calculus.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even so, that does not appear to have called into
question Iran or, for that matter, Saudi Arabia’s continued interest in
ensuring differences do not spin out of control.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Saudi Arabia fears that Hamas’ successful October 7
breach of Israeli defences could inspire Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels
if the kingdom and the Houthis fail to conclude an agreement that would offer the
Saudis a face-saving end to its 2015 military intervention in Yemen.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXzbGkviSm1E1r0jRno6VX0pT0JRguDcBmebiuoEq7iw6ODYapNYforeXSiv6HfBn5Ub9oCPUx8GCzfx8v90BoRn5Qcar7_UqUmHEDSWLVm43GAcCW5GoR2LupVUow-WEKobGn-A7_8ApCvLdUdg16FpQ5HbqLVnHdeT8ZkJFwFg4dU3oZZHiC_ZjLiNM/s1430/US%20support%20Saudi%20in%20Yemen.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1430" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXzbGkviSm1E1r0jRno6VX0pT0JRguDcBmebiuoEq7iw6ODYapNYforeXSiv6HfBn5Ub9oCPUx8GCzfx8v90BoRn5Qcar7_UqUmHEDSWLVm43GAcCW5GoR2LupVUow-WEKobGn-A7_8ApCvLdUdg16FpQ5HbqLVnHdeT8ZkJFwFg4dU3oZZHiC_ZjLiNM/s320/US%20support%20Saudi%20in%20Yemen.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">U.S. Support for Saudi Military Operations in Yemen in 2015
intervention. Photo: Fayez Nureldine/AFP/Getty Images</span></i><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Saudi threat perceptions have been reinforced by the
Houthis’ demonstrated <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/attacks-hit-multiple-ships-in-red-sea-corridor/7494601.html#:~:text=The%20Houthi%20attacks%20have%20disrupted,passage%20to%20the%20Suez%20Canal.">ability
to impede shipping in the Gulf’s strategic waterways</a> with missile and drone
attacks intended to disrupt shipping to and from Israeli ports in support of
the Palestinians.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The <a href="https://www.sportspolitika.news/p/arrests-and-religious-repression?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1501554&post_id=141582021&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=duh12&utm_medium=email">recent
arrest and questioning of Shiite Muslim soccer fans in Saudi Arabia</a>
illustrates that the dialing down of Saudi-Iranian tensions has done little to
change fundamental Saudi attitudes towards Iran and the kingdom’s Shiite Muslim
minority. The kingdom has long seen Shiites as religious heretics and an
Iranian fifth wheels.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Saudi Arabia broke relations with Iran in 2016 after
Iranians stormed the kingdom’s diplomatic missions in the Islamic republic in
protest against the <a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/soccer-highlights-domestic-drivers-in-saudi-iranian-dispute">execution
of a prominent Saudi Shiite cleric</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Neither the Chinese-mediated restoration of relations nor
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s economic and social reforms and
subjugation of the country’s ultra-conservative religious establishment have
done much to tackle anti-Shiite bias.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Authorities earlier this month arrested 10 fans and summoned
150 other supporters of Saudi First Division club Al Safa FC for chanting
Shiite Muslim slogans and songs during a match against Al Bukayriyah FC in the
city of Safwa in the kingdom’s Shiite-majority Eastern Province.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiligP0hb7N6If3SM8xtbwa4hDijNH2sgU4UxxOeiS8Lzm789s24qN7chyphenhyphenmBmJm1EUgS_lGEiTecuNP1_ETucKm54tQ8vX5CAVMrzhXfx41xU-W8S367tbbOZ6NppUKzvRi3G0D31CpkhIzyZ0DtMfknALvisZ_ERAGVEfZCbkXn-4o_h5s-MBWly0m13g/s624/Al%20Safa%20fans.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiligP0hb7N6If3SM8xtbwa4hDijNH2sgU4UxxOeiS8Lzm789s24qN7chyphenhyphenmBmJm1EUgS_lGEiTecuNP1_ETucKm54tQ8vX5CAVMrzhXfx41xU-W8S367tbbOZ6NppUKzvRi3G0D31CpkhIzyZ0DtMfknALvisZ_ERAGVEfZCbkXn-4o_h5s-MBWly0m13g/s320/Al%20Safa%20fans.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="background: white; color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; letter-spacing: -.1pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">Al Safa fans celebrate
during a local match. Photo: Twitter / @ESOHumanRightsE</span></i><i><span style="background: white; color: #8c8c8c; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; letter-spacing: -.1pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Saudi authorities asserted that fans’ chants were
“sectarian.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The sports ministry <a href="https://mos.gov.sa/ar/mediacenter/news/Pages/n322024.aspx">dissolved Al
Safa’s board</a> immediately after the incident for failing to adhere to the
kingdom’s laws and regulations.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“The Ministry of Sports emphasises to everyone the need
to adhere to the rules and regulations for sports competitions,” the ministry
said.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In addition, the Saudi Football Federation’s Disciplinary
and Ethics Committee ordered Al Safa to pay a US$53,300 fine. It also banned
club fans from attending the team’s next five league matches.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The committee asserted that the fans had chanted slogans
and songs that “violated the provisions of the disciplinary and ethics
regulations.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Iran targeted soccer fans at about the same time that
Saudi authorities cracked down on Shiite supporters but for different reasons.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A Norway-based Kurdish human rights group, the Hengaw
Organization for Human Rights, said ten <a href="https://hengaw.net/en/news/2024/02/kurdish-teenager-detained-by-iranian-forces-with-uncertain-status-following-football-celebration">Kurdish
teenagers had been arrested for celebrating Qatar’s recent defeat of Iran</a>
in the AFC Asian Cup.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hengaw said that Kurds in several predominantly Kurdish
cities in western Iran took to the streets to celebrate Iran’s loss.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The celebrations followed the <a href="https://hengaw.net/en/news/2024/02/saqqez-football-association-head-sentenced-to-over-six-years-in-prison">sentencing</a>
three days earlier of Sherko Hejazi,, the head of the Saqqez football
association in the the predominantly Kurdish city of Saqqez, to six years in
prison for “plotting to undermine domestic security” and membership in
opposition groups.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXC-U5PKJSU0PBTwED7uH5tjyNtoG8C7CLIRyrnWgloIDZIQsNh1lCea_uP_fvAzfE_9bYYDUmVntoiz0PV9XUsTF8DFfLPfT2ytsPN3USPn1y3XdpuOwSHwvp1ZBbhRm1UZQ58iNYQd88jxevxcfLaMNiSJ1fxbPu8jicFQZv8P_G4ZIQdDVcd5hZab8/s624/Sherko%20Hejazi.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXC-U5PKJSU0PBTwED7uH5tjyNtoG8C7CLIRyrnWgloIDZIQsNh1lCea_uP_fvAzfE_9bYYDUmVntoiz0PV9XUsTF8DFfLPfT2ytsPN3USPn1y3XdpuOwSHwvp1ZBbhRm1UZQ58iNYQd88jxevxcfLaMNiSJ1fxbPu8jicFQZv8P_G4ZIQdDVcd5hZab8/s320/Sherko%20Hejazi.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">Sherko Hejazi, the head of the Saqqez Football Association
Photo: hengaw.net<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The incidents, weeks before Iran’s March 1 parliamentary and
Assembly of Experts elections, reflected continued widespread discontent after
mass protests in 2022 and 2023 in the wake of the death in police custody of
Mahsa Amini, a Saqqez resident, for wearing her hijab “improperly.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">More than 500 people were killed by security forces
attempting to quell the protests. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In many ways a mirror image of Saudi Shiites, <a href="https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/sunnis-iran-protesting-against-decades-discrimination-and-repression">Iranian
Sunni Muslims</a> played a prominent role in the protests. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">However, unlike Saudi Arabia, Iran also faces a low-level
militant Sunni Muslim insurgency linked to the Islamic republic’s Baloch
minority.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Jaish al-Adl, a militant Sunni Muslim group operating across
the border in Pakistan, <a href="https://www.iranintl.com/en/202312151476">attacked
a police station</a> in Rask in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan Province in December,
killing at least 12 officers.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/18/middleeast/pakistan-targets-locations-iran-intl-hnk/index.html">rare
cross-border military operation</a>, Iran targeted in January Jaish al-Adel
bases in Pakistan’s neighbouring Balochistan province. Two days later, Pakistan
struck at what it said were separatist militant Baloch hideouts in Iran.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This year’s election of the 88-member Assembly that appoints
Iran’s Supreme Leader comes as Iran gears up for a potential succession to
84-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Several reformist and centrist candidates, including
former president Hassan Rouhani were <a href="https://apnews.com/article/iran-former-president-rouhani-disqualified-election-5185fddef7c631d2dfcabc4b361e75e5">disqualified</a>
in advance of the election.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Many Iranians had hoped that the détente with Saudi
Arabia would provide relief for Iran’s economy hampered by harsh US sanctions.
Saudi Arabia has been careful not to violate sanctions. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As a result, turnout is likely to be seen as a barometer
of the Iranian public’s mood.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The government has claimed that voter enthusiasm is
increasing but has prevented the publication of opinion polls to back up its
assertion.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In a rare exception, a poll conducted in December by the
Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) suggested that a mere <a href="https://www.isna.ir/news/1402090604114/%20%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AC-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%AC-%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%84-%D9%BE%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B4-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B3%D9%BE%D8%A7-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AE%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%B5-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1%DA%A9%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D8%AF%DB%8C">28
per cent of those surveyed would cast a vote</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A Netherlands-based <a href="https://gamaan.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GAMAAN-Elections-2024-Survey-Report-Final-English.pdf">Gamaan
Institute survey</a> conducted in the first week of February concluded that
only 15 per cent of respondents intended to vote. <a href="https://gamaan.org/2024/02/16/iranians-attitudes-toward-the-2024-elections/">Seventy-seven
per cent</a> said they would not go to the polls, while eight per cent were
undecided.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Three quarters of those surveyed said they would vote
against an Islamic republic as their preferred governance system if given the
choice.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The soccer incidents, while different and unrelated, tell
a story of discontent among minorities in Saudi Arabia and Iran across ethnic
and sectarian divides.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">They also tell a story of stepped-up repression of human
and minorities rights and freedom of religion in both countries that casts a
cloud over Saudi and Iranian efforts to manage their differences.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk136859387"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i></a><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk136859387;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk136859387;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk136859387;"></span><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p></p>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-27256613940530509032024-02-20T13:00:00.001+08:002024-02-20T13:00:34.156+08:00Israel puts Qatar in the crosshairs as Hamas reasserts itself in Gaza.<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAL1XxFjkUtctqEX84DdWTHAN_qemH5OaguM1AmEsTNl2ll2_c7_OPII7DjYVTb4ScuW5LlMks7qM_mEBi1LCdSeVfeXxgF8WUdgMfn5Pa57cAfMcynYF6AGlk7DYPTuw7ELujiB9FiRhCDrU4Q2AlhZpQ1vsVKY3OKblvJ16W4d7D8k8GVf0DUxfl8jI/s1280/Qatar%20crosshairs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAL1XxFjkUtctqEX84DdWTHAN_qemH5OaguM1AmEsTNl2ll2_c7_OPII7DjYVTb4ScuW5LlMks7qM_mEBi1LCdSeVfeXxgF8WUdgMfn5Pa57cAfMcynYF6AGlk7DYPTuw7ELujiB9FiRhCDrU4Q2AlhZpQ1vsVKY3OKblvJ16W4d7D8k8GVf0DUxfl8jI/s320/Qatar%20crosshairs.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To
watch a video version of this story on YouTube please click</span></em><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://youtu.be/Jc3ri_EGLG4" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> here.</span></em></a></span><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></u></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An audio podcast is available
on </span></em></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/israel-puts-qatar-in-the-crosshairs-as-hamas-reasserts-itself-in-gaza" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud.</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk159254064"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">With the Gaza ceasefire and
prisoner exchange talks stalled, Israel and its hardline US supporters have
stepped up long-standing efforts to discredit Qatar, the main mediator between
Hamas and the Israeli government.<o:p></o:p></span></a></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk159254064;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The anti-Qatar campaign accuses the Gulf state, of
forging relations with problematic groups and supporting the likes of Hamas and
the Taliban as part of its conflict mediation policy, even though those
relationships were </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/catching-flack-qatar-s-gaza-mediation-is-a-balancing-act"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">encouraged
by the United States and, in the case of Hamas, Israel</span></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.</span></span><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk159255818"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The stepped-up efforts </span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">coincide
with Israel effectively walking away from Qatari, Egyptian, and US efforts to
negotiate a pro-longed ceasefire in the four-month-old Gaza war and a prisoner
exchange that would free the remaining 136 Hamas-held Israeli hostages and the
bodies of captives killed during the war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjomIgfhfuuO49Y64r_iMzMA0DwuwOnQDcp8x8a44PnD2_-qlGzoiG3l-33bIaKLCGG8F3j6LPtFoxTGdTaFctVAw4-efPyyxE6MinrbHBIiVeaUF5GNkLtdfda1MHxIBq3GtiuI-axtfEiMQH5mbhWfK7NcX81Axiv-V1SFrWStluR6kL5X9QoOzEpbJs/s624/Blinken-AlThani.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjomIgfhfuuO49Y64r_iMzMA0DwuwOnQDcp8x8a44PnD2_-qlGzoiG3l-33bIaKLCGG8F3j6LPtFoxTGdTaFctVAw4-efPyyxE6MinrbHBIiVeaUF5GNkLtdfda1MHxIBq3GtiuI-axtfEiMQH5mbhWfK7NcX81Axiv-V1SFrWStluR6kL5X9QoOzEpbJs/s320/Blinken-AlThani.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">US Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks during a joint
press conference with Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister
Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, at Diwan Annex, in Doha, Qatar, Feb. 6,
2024.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hamas abducted some 250 people during its October 7
attack on Israel. Approximately 120 hostages were released in November during a
one-week Qatar-mediated truce in exchange for 240 Palestinians held in Israeli
prisons.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The anti-Qatar campaign scored a tangible success earlier
this month with </span><a href="https://president.tamu.edu/messages/correcting-misinformation-about-our-university.html"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Texas
A&M University’s announcement</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> that it was shutting down
its two-decade-old Qatar campus. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Handsomely funded by Qatar Foundation (QF), Texas A&M
is one of eight foreign universities, including Georgetown, Northwestern, Well
Cornell Medicine, and Carnegie Mellon, alongside Qatar’s Hamid bin Khalifa
University, with operations in the Gulf state’s Education City.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In a statement, the foundation said Texas A&M’s
decision was “influenced by a disinformation campaign aimed at harming the
interests of QF... It is deeply disappointing that a globally respected
academic institution like Texas A&M University has fallen victim to such a
campaign and allowed politics to infiltrate its decision-making processes.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Texas A&M said its decision was “due to heightened
instability in the Middle East.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The closure followed the publication of a </span><a href="https://president.tamu.edu/messages/correcting-misinformation-about-our-university.html"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">report
by the New York-based, pro-Israel Institute for the Study of Global
Antisemitism and Policy (ISGAP)</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> alleging that Texas A&M
had shared sensitive nuclear energy and weapons development research with the
Qatari government. Texas A&M denied the allegations.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtK4mjTzgL-lUx-5F5VWUNAAZteB9bRgLrrOttk8a8OqEVdh2fylKhYWab77rJsLGMhwOewHfl69FznIBXccQqP-3h0P53wdNnel98bZCQg8JdwJkvCDlVvflxVxN077mUZCzEd7HDeIA_BvpWkYhAbnYBnm__8zfHzFMQPpiKRWaDMP4bat0j_QZlwJ8/s1546/IGSAP%20report.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1546" data-original-width="1137" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtK4mjTzgL-lUx-5F5VWUNAAZteB9bRgLrrOttk8a8OqEVdh2fylKhYWab77rJsLGMhwOewHfl69FznIBXccQqP-3h0P53wdNnel98bZCQg8JdwJkvCDlVvflxVxN077mUZCzEd7HDeIA_BvpWkYhAbnYBnm__8zfHzFMQPpiKRWaDMP4bat0j_QZlwJ8/s320/IGSAP%20report.png" width="235" /></a></div></div></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">ISGAP report on Qatar and Texas
A&M. Photo: isgap.org</span></i><i><span style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The report said Qatar paid Texas A&M more than US$1
billion for the rights to all intellectual and material assets developed in
more than 500 technology projects in sensitive fields such as nuclear science,
artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, robotics, biotechnology, and advanced
weapons development.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">"Allowing Qatar, with its links to terrorist
organizations, to have complete control of this research through IP ownership
creates unacceptable risks of technology transfer and appropriation of
breakthroughs with military applications," the report warned. It suggested
the advanced technology could find its way to militant groups like Hamas and
Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militia.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">More sanguine Israeli scholars argue that “the </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2024-02-18/ty-article-magazine/.premium/qatars-money-machine-smooths-its-path-to-global-influence/0000018d-ad18-d30f-a39f-ff797e3b0000"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">goal
(of Qatari) investments</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> is not necessarily to steal secrets
like the Chinese, but to acquire influence. What's important to Qatar is how it
can influence American policy through soft power. I'm less afraid of technology
theft – I see things like the partnership with Texas A&M as a Qatari
investment,” said Yoel Guzansky, a former head of Iran and the Gulf at Israel's
National Security Council and Middle under three prime ministers and a Middle
East scholar who wrote his dissertation on Qatar’s hedging policies.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Conveniently, Israel, as it demonises Qatar, buries its
own engagement with Hamas as well as the fact that Egypt long saw the group as
an asset in countering Islamist militants in the Sinai Peninsula.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Israeli campaign is not that far in time from the
days that Mr. Netanyahu asked Qatar to fund the salaries of Gaza’s Hamas
administration and some reconstruction after five earlier wars. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Guzansky noted that his efforts as the head of
Harpoon, a secret Israeli unit created to foil money transfers to militants and
Iran, fell on Mr. Netanyahu’s deaf ears. “His policy changed to the transfer of
money from Qatar to the Gaza Strip. And then the international system stopped
blocking Hamas' money, because they said to us, 'If you won't handle it, why
should we?' That started in 2014,” Mr. Guzansky said.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), founded
by Yigal Carmon, a former advisor to Israel’s West Bank and Gaza occupation
authority and Prime Ministers Yitzhak Shamir and Yitzhak Rabin, has produced in
recent months a series of reports designed to bolster Israel’s campaign against
Qatar.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWrZ1heROn-U-NIwuw-Cx7NdVq2bmpXI3TWpwQovc7gOCdytYAQvg-l7VGRojH2ftZ6Af1Hh2jYQRbo3oz7FUoEQBxwiKlPJ14-OXDB_E_JaAmJRqsonH4T-V_zXytM92ICob89zZ3yGwW2QnJw1-58LrkWKLUevsVl9PnI-7Y-rNDjGJDRy780JXC5R0/s624/MEMRI%20Qatar.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="207" data-original-width="624" height="106" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWrZ1heROn-U-NIwuw-Cx7NdVq2bmpXI3TWpwQovc7gOCdytYAQvg-l7VGRojH2ftZ6Af1Hh2jYQRbo3oz7FUoEQBxwiKlPJ14-OXDB_E_JaAmJRqsonH4T-V_zXytM92ICob89zZ3yGwW2QnJw1-58LrkWKLUevsVl9PnI-7Y-rNDjGJDRy780JXC5R0/s320/MEMRI%20Qatar.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In </span><a href="https://www.memri.org/reports/qatar-trojan-horse-washington-dc"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">MEMRI’s
latest broadside</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, Mr. Carmon asserted, echoing Mr. Netanyahu,
that the hostage negotiations were faltering “because Qatar is not pressuring
Hamas. It sees itself as a mere go-between. Qatar isn't pressuring Hamas
despite the fact that in reality, Qatar is the lifeline of Hamas – its hope,
its future, its power to continue to fight and to hold the hostages.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Ignoring that Hamas was founded in 1986 in
Israeli-occupied and besieged Gaza at a time that Israel tacitly saw the group
as an anti-dote to Yasser Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), Mr.
Carmon charged that “Qatar built Hamas from a small organization into a
military and political power. It took pride in its training of ‘Hamas security
officials.’… Without Qatar, Hamas is doomed."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">To be fair, Mr. Carmon’s tirade also took Mr. Netanyahu
to task for allowing Qatari funds to flow to Hamas.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Netanyahu “violated Israeli and international
anti-terrorism laws by allowing the money from Qatar, a state sponsor of
terrorism, to reach Hamas, recognized as a terrorist organization across the
West – thereby transforming this violation into a policy – until it exploded in
his face,” Mr. Carmon said.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">On Sunday, Mr. Netanyahu asserted that “the release of
hostages can be achieved through strong military action and tough negotiations,
very tough negotiations. That tough position has to involve the exertion of
pressure. And the exertion of pressure is not merely on Hamas itself, but on </span><a href="https://www.jns.org/netanyahu-urges-pressure-on-qatar-for-hostage-release/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">those
who can exert pressure on Hamas, beginning with Qatar</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In response, Qatar foreign ministry spokesman Majed
Al-Ansari called on the prime minister “to </span><a href="https://twitter.com/majedalansari/status/1759537416569033170"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">focus
on the path of negotiations</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> that serves the security of the region
and end the ongoing tragedy of the war instead of issuing such statements
whenever it suits his narrow political agenda.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Netanyahu’s hard line in the ceasefire negotiations
and effort to discredit the mediator has as much to do with domestic Israeli
politics as with not wanting to hand Hamas a victory when Israel has yet to
show substantial progress in destroying the group not only militarily but also
politically and organisationally. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hamas’ ability to maintain its position in the ceasefire
and prisoner exchange negotiations highlights Israel’s failure so far to wipe
the group off the face of the earth.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">US intelligence estimated earlier this month that </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/blinken-finds-a-hardened-political-landscape-as-he-tours-the-middle-east"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel
has killed or captured at most 30 per cent of Hamas’ 30,000-strong fighting
force</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. The Israeli military said in early January that it had </span><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-rcna132421"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">killed
or captured up to 9,000 Hamas fighters</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Adding fuel to the fire, </span><a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-02-03-2024-c0a63ab330a8915d684d4461edc5ec5e"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hamas
has resurfaced in parts of Gaza</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> from which Israeli forces
have withdrawn in the past month in the belief that they had eliminated the
group’s presence in parts of the Strip.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3CucZpioajZkPBnkA8s_AEG8Z0kowDaH7z5UjZ9QO5-RmVrH6CzLTRZ96hT_2mDHRsnHreFZjStTfIh28lQ1pMY8BKMAsl_LkY_tKFpGpepbNSSxjVE-G9JBXp4kOnfoEbXSiIlULZnAv-fykA1VZuVKcygVHQJTLJAn9s1lWYzwGJsJkvYp2ATyLO_A/s468/Gaza%20destruction.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="312" data-original-width="468" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3CucZpioajZkPBnkA8s_AEG8Z0kowDaH7z5UjZ9QO5-RmVrH6CzLTRZ96hT_2mDHRsnHreFZjStTfIh28lQ1pMY8BKMAsl_LkY_tKFpGpepbNSSxjVE-G9JBXp4kOnfoEbXSiIlULZnAv-fykA1VZuVKcygVHQJTLJAn9s1lWYzwGJsJkvYp2ATyLO_A/s320/Gaza%20destruction.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><i><span lang="EN-PH" style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-PH; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-PH; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">A man sits on the rubble as others wander among debris of buildings that
were hit by Israeli airstrikes in the northern Gaza Strip. Photo: Abed Khaled /
Associated Press<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In Gaza city, the Strip’s largest urban area, Hamas has
recently deployed uniformed and plainclothes police officers to prevent the
looting of shops and houses abandoned by residents and restore law and order
and paid salaries to some of its civil servants.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In doing so, Hamas, on the back of its governance
infrastructure and charity network, positions itself as the only entity willing
and able to administer Gaza and provide essential services in a wasteland in
which Israel curtails the flow of desperately needed aid and seemingly
systematically destroys Gaza’s civilian infrastructure.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hamas’ effort to return a semblance of governance
exploits Israel’s Catch-22. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Focussed on destroying the group and hesitant to shoulder
responsibility for providing aid and basic services as it refuses to lay out
its vision for Gaza once the guns fall silent, Israel is caught between a rock
and a hard place.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It is damned if it assumes responsibility for governance
of the Strip, 19 years after Israeli troops withdrew and imposed an
Egyptian-supported blockade of the Strip, and damned for a war that makes Gaza unlivable
</span><a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/gaza-israel-occupied-international-law/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">in
violation of international law</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Further complicating things, Israel’s demonisation of
Qatar is paralleled by an Israeli </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/unrwa-pronounced-guilty-until-proven-innocent-palestinians-pay-the-price"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">campaign
to shutter the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNWRA),</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> the
foremost aid organisation operating in Gaza and the Strip’s third largest
employer.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmnNGs8b25jGlfQWKxcQ1QhIE8dukspPNo86jFG0Qjv2IaFp9jXKWswwSk_IWrovRlbRdHxgsRWC8kf1WWXhAJOCDvYvq8ojA4GXSaVvA-P0eTU1an069wkTSRIZlU4FTjB-UjNNSslF4u6wjaxGnme0THV6T-h4xKC7KDTaIMof6ZbbMOH61OJiTD4_k/s1950/Gaza%20aid.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1219" data-original-width="1950" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmnNGs8b25jGlfQWKxcQ1QhIE8dukspPNo86jFG0Qjv2IaFp9jXKWswwSk_IWrovRlbRdHxgsRWC8kf1WWXhAJOCDvYvq8ojA4GXSaVvA-P0eTU1an069wkTSRIZlU4FTjB-UjNNSslF4u6wjaxGnme0THV6T-h4xKC7KDTaIMof6ZbbMOH61OJiTD4_k/s320/Gaza%20aid.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="background: white; color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">Palestinians carry bags of flour and other
basic food products received as aid to poor families, at the United Nations
Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) distribution center, in
the Rafah refugee camp, southern Gaza Strip. Photo: SAID KHATIB / AFP</span></i><i><span style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">At least 18 countries last month suspended UNWRA funding
after Israel and the United States asserted that 12 of UNWRA’s 13,000 Gaza
employees had participated in Hamas’ October 7 attacks.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By refusing to engage in Gaza’s civilian governance,
while denying other non-hostile actors a role in post-conflict reconstruction,
Israel is </span><a href="https://warontherocks.com/2024/02/hamas-is-returning-to-northern-gaza-because-israel-has-no-plan-for-the-day-after/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">providing
Hamas with the silver platter of legitimacy that it needs to survive the
conflict</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,” said peace and security scholar Rob Geist Pinfold.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel’s anti-Qatar campaign is closely linked to
post-war governance in Gaza and the West Bank. Beyond the ceasefire and
prisoner exchange talks, the campaign is designed to thwart initial </span><a href="https://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/4851001-abbas-qatari-emir-discuss-%E2%80%98day-after-gaza-war%E2%80%99"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Qatari
attempts to mediate between Hamas and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’
Palestine Authority</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A reconciliation between the two feuding entities would
make a Palestine Authority-led administration of post-war Gaza and the West
Bank more feasible. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Abbas last week </span><a href="https://www.independentarabia.com/node/549541/%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D9%85%D9%87%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%83%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9-%D9%83%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%A1%D8%A7%D8%AA%20%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9/%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B1/%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B3-%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B6%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%85-%D9%84%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%85%D8%A9-"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">reportedly</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
endorsed a potential Qatari mediation effort and the formation of a
technocratic government in Gaza and the West Bank in talks in Doha with Qatari
Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">PLO Executive Committee member Ramzi Rabah last week told
Independent Arabia TV that Hamas willing to join the PLO, the Palestine
Authority’s backbone, endorse a Palestinian state alongside Israel, and support
a technocratic government without demanding that the group be part of it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The issue of governance in war-ravaged Gaza as well as
the West Bank and East Jerusalem shot on Monday to the top of the agenda with
the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) historic week-long hearings on the
legality of Israel’s 57-year-long occupation of Palestinian lands conquered
during the 1967 Middle East war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAtRsA22xLCP6xkBHLJyuRCDNCAnTwg7GHHJcVl4n_0Ylop6fj2OHc-Bkjcm2g4s2gNBkfSvgFGw2aRrzkaQ0xfyG_FpeJKhh5P3AZ9MkkbI9j-zobNSyQ5qezI17UqoYj268G2hRILPogeLSRxdw52ojfFZ-B2icwRnXr0GioDp3AhKXW7k3AeNBQrxg/s1430/ICJ%20occupation.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="856" data-original-width="1430" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAtRsA22xLCP6xkBHLJyuRCDNCAnTwg7GHHJcVl4n_0Ylop6fj2OHc-Bkjcm2g4s2gNBkfSvgFGw2aRrzkaQ0xfyG_FpeJKhh5P3AZ9MkkbI9j-zobNSyQ5qezI17UqoYj268G2hRILPogeLSRxdw52ojfFZ-B2icwRnXr0GioDp3AhKXW7k3AeNBQrxg/s320/ICJ%20occupation.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="background: white; color: #343a40; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
International <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Court start hearings</span></i><i><span style="background: white; color: #0f1419; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> on Israel’s occupation of Palestinians lands. UN
Photo/ICJ-CIJ/Frank van Beek</span></i><i><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The hearings are in response to a December 2022 </span><a href="https://www.icj-cij.org/node/106313"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">United Nations General
Assembly request for an ICJ review of </span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel's "occupation,
settlement and annexation ... including measures aimed at altering the
demographic composition, character and status of the Holy City of Jerusalem,
and from its adoption of related discriminatory legislation and measures.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Assembly asked the ICJ to issue a non-binding
advisory opinion on how Israeli policies “affect the legal status of the
occupation" and what legal consequences arise for countries and the United
Nations from this status.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Fifty-two countries and three international organisations
are scheduled to present on the Israeli occupation, which the Palestinians and
much of the international community deem illegal.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It’s the largest number of parties to participate in any
ICJ case since the court was established in 1945.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel has opted to submit a written rather than an oral
presentation in a case that is separate from </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/international-court-ruling-likely-to-shape-israel-hamas-prisoner-exchange-talks"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">ongoing
proceedings at South Africa’s behest on whether its conduct of the Gaza war
amounts to genocide</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“The case will put before the court a litany of
accusations and allegations and grievances which are probably </span><a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-court-gaza-occupation-8e194a5d96bc6a2264a0bb3de8576210"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">going
to be uncomfortable and embarrassing for Israel</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,
given the war and the already very polarized international environment,” said
Israeli law professor Yuval Shany.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Palestine Authority foreign ministry official Omar
Awadallah spelt out how uncomfortable and embarrassing the case should be.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“We want to hear new words from the court. They’ve had to
consider the word genocide in the South Africa case. Now we want them to
consider apartheid,” Mr. Awadallah said.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israelis fear that the fallout of an ICJ condemnation of
the Israeli occupation could go beyond words.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">"If, for example, in its opinion, the court rules
that settlements constitute an international war crime, </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/2024-02-18/ty-article/.premium/icj-to-consider-legality-of-israels-control-over-west-bank-and-east-jerusalem/0000018d-bcd4-dd5e-a59d-fdf6fb5a0000"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">countries
could stop selling arms to Israel</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, as a court in the
Netherlands has already recently ordered. Israeli goods are liable to be
labeled and personal sanctions against settlers, such as were imposed in the
United States, could be stepped up,” said Israeli lawyer Yuval Sasson who
specialises in international law.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Earlier this month, the United States Biden </span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68173904"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">sanctioned
four Israeli settlers</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> accused of attacking Palestinians in the
West Bank.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Perhaps, most importantly, an ICJ designation of the
Israeli occupation as illegal, despite not being legally binding, would create
a legal framework for negotiations that would strengthen the Palestinians’
ability to reject Israeli and US efforts to limit a future Palestinian state’s
independence and sovereignty.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Michael
Lynk, a former UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian
Territories, noted that an ICJ designation would put the United States on the
spot.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“This would
go back to the UN General Assembly. The Assembly will try to commit the
Security Council to take action to end the occupation. President Biden has
talked throughout his presidency about a two-state solution. This will be the
litmus test of the US commitment to international law and human rights,” Mr.
Lynk said.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk136859387"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i></a><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk136859387;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk136859387;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk136859387;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-28120199011600090962024-02-18T22:26:00.004+08:002024-02-18T22:26:25.910+08:00Crunch time may be around the corner as Gaza ceasefire talks stall.<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8nfvIMcopdwqFIr5-zLIlygWoi3i9yW8ohNl3tx4LvA-zn9Gbep9OMVQwC_12EcLFN492eYM6O50VjMVL-P0EhME1U9Ggcb9wq9IEbdHlWrM39SMsISEA5lDI2o7s8ltuogY3l7mjKoeZCnI6IHTguZNPHgCSeI77HUpm5tTwQaKHA7qKgZ2aIR4AFj4/s1280/Crunch%20time.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8nfvIMcopdwqFIr5-zLIlygWoi3i9yW8ohNl3tx4LvA-zn9Gbep9OMVQwC_12EcLFN492eYM6O50VjMVL-P0EhME1U9Ggcb9wq9IEbdHlWrM39SMsISEA5lDI2o7s8ltuogY3l7mjKoeZCnI6IHTguZNPHgCSeI77HUpm5tTwQaKHA7qKgZ2aIR4AFj4/s320/Crunch%20time.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">By
James M. Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
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<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To
watch a video version of this story on YouTube please click</span></em><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://youtu.be/sYiqFyQB3X0" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> here.</span></em></a></span><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></u></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An audio podcast is available
on </span></em></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/crunch-time-may-be-around-the-corner-as-gaza-ceasefire-talks-stall" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud</span></em></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.</span></u></em></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Increasingly,
the Biden administration links a Gaza ceasefire and a prisoner exchange to
broader regional objectives, including Saudi recognition of Israel and the semblance
of a pathway to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHf-STB-zGQ-HK_whyphenhypheni58OlnY3s-0LWcHHivDvEkPkdojrgkquOoa5nAgLnGyiikqtH3Q7xJvYMsfGg4plK73sMoNEb_MFxKQOBSu-KqxCr1mGHIa3_qRRA6W3_AxMDMqwGIxTxaIAq7qHuUHVVhVV7mESJeThUTm41EApL0MTAjBDbMT3FC9u0QrbaEw/s1430/Biden%20with%20Congress.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="870" data-original-width="1430" height="195" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHf-STB-zGQ-HK_whyphenhypheni58OlnY3s-0LWcHHivDvEkPkdojrgkquOoa5nAgLnGyiikqtH3Q7xJvYMsfGg4plK73sMoNEb_MFxKQOBSu-KqxCr1mGHIa3_qRRA6W3_AxMDMqwGIxTxaIAq7qHuUHVVhVV7mESJeThUTm41EApL0MTAjBDbMT3FC9u0QrbaEw/s320/Biden%20with%20Congress.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><em><span style="background: white; border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26; padding: 0cm;">President Joe
Biden in White House with members of Congress Photo: Evan Vucci/AP</span></em><span style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">That
is easier said than done, particularly given the time limitations imposed by
the US presidential election in November and the likely prospect of an election
in Israel once the guns fall silent in Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Timing
may be the lesser hurdle to achieving the administration’s goal. Political
obstacles are likely to prove more formidable.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Speaking
at the Munich Security Conference this week, US Secretary of State Antony J.
Blinken asserted that there was "</span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/blinken-extraordinary-opportunity-israel-be-integrated-into-middle-east-2024-02-17/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">an extraordinary
opportunity"</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> in
the coming months for Israel to normalise ties with its Arab neighbors.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhyphenhyphene3bOWbLRw8UaVJkkOo8wS3K5fHPuA445GZl9MScijBL0ME-nx78DXGA69iDic_MBgoHRCd7hcohyVnREpz53E5EcM-BdOLIUr2B7r-akN8h-rJaZEcaZGpCuL6q2YqeV_zPLHPf5OX9knyly-TKmvX9F0qUOanaeOK0b2DL9oOeyfQ5avEVpC6fP54/s624/Blinken-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="417" data-original-width="624" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhyphenhyphene3bOWbLRw8UaVJkkOo8wS3K5fHPuA445GZl9MScijBL0ME-nx78DXGA69iDic_MBgoHRCd7hcohyVnREpz53E5EcM-BdOLIUr2B7r-akN8h-rJaZEcaZGpCuL6q2YqeV_zPLHPf5OX9knyly-TKmvX9F0qUOanaeOK0b2DL9oOeyfQ5avEVpC6fP54/s320/Blinken-2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div></div></div></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">US Secretary of
State Antony Blinken. Photo: AP</span></i><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">"Virtually
every Arab country now genuinely wants to integrate Israel into the region to
normalize relations...to provide security commitments and assurances so that
Israel can feel more safe," Mr. Blinken said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">"And
there's also, I think the imperative, that's more urgent than ever, to proceed
to a Palestinian state that also ensures the security of Israel," he
added.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">That’s
where the rubber hits the road.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">“The
only pathway to sustainable security for all of us in the region is through
Palestinian self-determination. The Arab states are fully committed to
delivering that. They also are fully committed through that to </span><a href="https://twitter.com/Saudi_Gazette/status/1758934649886163399"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">delivering a true partnership
with Israel</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> and
integration into the region and security for all,” said Saudi Foreign Minister
Faisal bin Farhan in response to Mr. Blinken.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWEVA7WU5lblEmjGzD97PysP24WN2iXoXtAbPsQIpOzd5UsGAsvHir-R2rr6d2BBJPbkheo2qfGl4pkKhwni8cuwTTRKG_zxrZ1hJ40y0HERM9uLSfIRlBXi0zhK_QkJVzoRKPw0kXHqn16obeRxTaQ4QsVbs9FXspebYu9upMzvlQovIsEgJlRZrcxlw/s1430/Bin%20Farhan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="952" data-original-width="1430" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWEVA7WU5lblEmjGzD97PysP24WN2iXoXtAbPsQIpOzd5UsGAsvHir-R2rr6d2BBJPbkheo2qfGl4pkKhwni8cuwTTRKG_zxrZ1hJ40y0HERM9uLSfIRlBXi0zhK_QkJVzoRKPw0kXHqn16obeRxTaQ4QsVbs9FXspebYu9upMzvlQovIsEgJlRZrcxlw/s320/Bin%20Farhan.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">Saudi Foreign
Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan Al Saud speaks during a press conference
after the end of Security and Development Summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, July
16, 2022. (AP Photo/Amr Nabil)</span></i><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Left
vague was whether Messrs. Blinken and Bin Farhan were singing from the same
song sheet, even if they employed similar terminology. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Attributing
greater importance to Israel’s sense of security rather than recognising that
Palestinians are no less traumatized by decades of violence, Mr. Blinken
envisions </span><a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/31/palestine-statehood-biden-israel-gaza-war"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">a demilitarised Palestinian state</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> with Israel as the major
security player.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">It was
not clear whether Mr. Bin Farhan and other Arab leaders share that vision and
what their attitude will be once Palestinians make clear that Israel is as
central to their threat perceptions as Palestinians are to Israeli concerns.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Ultimately,
history suggests that negotiations produce results when the price of not
achieving a negotiated solution becomes too high.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/qatar-pm-says-gaza-ceasefire-negotiations-not-very-promising-recent-days-2024-02-17/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Stalled Qatari, Egyptian, and
US efforts</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> to
negotiate a ceasefire indicate that neither Israel nor Hamas have reached that
point. Both are willing to let the Gazans pay the price for their
intransigence.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Israeli
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu made that clear by ensuring that his scaled-down
delegation at last week’s talks in Cairo with the negotiators had no authority
to negotiate a deal.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrkbvUsg5fXyiVFOYkWtMPpCGN0KdsS-4_s0EhyqX4LEt0NAp9LMPSEVzBTMXKhyphenhyphenyT3mvKbujm-Nm81zDytJV6iT7nMZUVjSdtHAKnFFEp8hlEPdn9HFA2IHzJ4mprSoDLCBqCBuUfkF8P-z2j1oNvQSb0kQ6C4QZskBMNDfn4s9HVl2-ns7sqZvicbxs/s624/Netanyahu.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="391" data-original-width="624" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrkbvUsg5fXyiVFOYkWtMPpCGN0KdsS-4_s0EhyqX4LEt0NAp9LMPSEVzBTMXKhyphenhyphenyT3mvKbujm-Nm81zDytJV6iT7nMZUVjSdtHAKnFFEp8hlEPdn9HFA2IHzJ4mprSoDLCBqCBuUfkF8P-z2j1oNvQSb0kQ6C4QZskBMNDfn4s9HVl2-ns7sqZvicbxs/s320/Netanyahu.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu. Photo: Tomer Neuberg/Flash9</span></i><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">On
Thursday, Mr. Netanyahu </span><a href="https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel-at-war/1707935202-pm-netanyahu-refuses-to-send-delegation-to-cairo-for-new-hostage-negotiations#:~:text=Israeli%20Prime%20Minister%20Benjamin%20Netanyahu,submit%20to%20Hamas'%20illusory%20demands."><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">refused to allow
the delegation to return to Cairo</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> for follow-up discussions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">In a
statement, Mr. Netanyahu’s office said that "Israel will not submit to
Hamas' illusory demands. Only a change in Hamas' position will allow progress
in the negotiations."<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Hamas
negotiator Ismail Haniyeh insisted two days later that the group would not
“agree to anything less” than a deal involving a ceasefire, the withdrawal of
Israeli forces from Gaza, a lifting of the blockade of the Strip, the safe
return of displaced Gazans to their homes, and the reconstruction of the
war-ravaged territory.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Mr.
Netanyahu’s refusal to further engage in indirect talks with Hamas on Mr.
Haniyeh’s terms, which enjoy broad support in much of the international
community, is closely linked to the prime minister’s insistence on continuing
the Gaza war till the bitter end and his opposition to the creation of a viable
Palestinian state on lands conquered by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">“There
is no alternative to total victory… We shall not bow down to international
dictates regarding a future deal with the Palestinians… How can we recognise
such a state after the massacre of October 7? This would be a reward for
terrorism," Mr Netanyahu said, throwing down a gauntlet for Mr. Blinken
and US President Joe Biden.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The
prime minister spoke as tens of thousands poured into the streets of Tel Aviv
and Jerusalem demanding his resignation and/or prioritisation of the release of
the remaining 120 of the approximately 250 hostages abducted by Hamas during
its October 7 attack on Israel, even if that requires an end to the war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh26g1NmR1eMqw4ZGz3ypAgooviOI_LoCLrM9e6EbY8seHSzbWzE7avsBwOsaeFxFt0buxebPgAwf3zrKExBSlZ0SokJR6zbPtPub1Gcp5rMlYHkPazSm77PiXL_PU5eYrlLlst2BLc72AXPp-mSVxoElH3h_4mZbSqWvxb3yhALnhUUUc2q6aP3H_sWko/s600/Hostage%20protest.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="600" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh26g1NmR1eMqw4ZGz3ypAgooviOI_LoCLrM9e6EbY8seHSzbWzE7avsBwOsaeFxFt0buxebPgAwf3zrKExBSlZ0SokJR6zbPtPub1Gcp5rMlYHkPazSm77PiXL_PU5eYrlLlst2BLc72AXPp-mSVxoElH3h_4mZbSqWvxb3yhALnhUUUc2q6aP3H_sWko/s320/Hostage%20protest.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Photos
of the Hamas hostages displayed in Tel Aviv. Photo: Amir Levy/Getty Images<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Mr.
Netanyahu prided himself on achieving the initial release of 120 hostages in
November. However, he failed to acknowledge that the vast majority were released
in prisoner exchanges with Hamas during a one-week truce rather than as the
result of Israeli military operations.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Mr.
Netanyahu’s omission reflects his unwillingness and/or inability to recognise
that four months into the war Israel has yet to achieve its war goals and that
its conduct of the war has taken an unacceptable toll on innocent Gazans and caused
irreparable damage to Israel’s international standing.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Hamas’
ability to maintain its position in the ceasefire and prisoner exchange
negotiations highlights Israel’s failure so far to destroy the group as a
military and political force. Moreover, Israel has yet to hunt down Hamas’
Gaza-based top leaders or prevent the group from reasserting itself in parts of
the devastated Strip.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">US
intelligence estimated earlier this month that </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/blinken-finds-a-hardened-political-landscape-as-he-tours-the-middle-east"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Israel has killed or captured
at most 30 per cent of Hamas’ 30,000-strong fighting force</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Mr.
Netanyahu’s defiance also reflects his refusal to recognise that Israel’s
security lies in an equitable resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
rather than in a failed more than five-decade-long effort to beat Palestinians
into submission through brutal force, repression, collective punishment,
disregard for Palestinian lives, and humiliation.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">If
anything, the Gaza war demonstrates that 57 years of Israeli occupation of
Palestinian lands has produced an endless and escalating cycle of violence. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">“</span><a href="https://twitter.com/Saudi_Gazette/status/1758934649886163399"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The definition of madness is
doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">… The next explosion will be,”
Mr. Bin Farhan, the Saudi foreign minister, said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">To be
sure, the cycle has been perpetuated by a weak Palestinian leadership incapable
of taking the bull by the horns, and that allowed Israel to continuously
undermine its authority and play divide and rule. Hamas is the product of
Palestinian political weakness and Israel’s cynical policies.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Breaking
the stalemate on a ceasefire, prisoner exchange, and credible process to
resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is likely to require a change in the
United States’ policy towards Israel. The United States would have to apply real
pressure rather than continue its friendly nudging that has failed to change
Israeli policy and military tactics.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Conventional
wisdom has it that a phone call to Mr. Netanyahu in which Mr. Biden threatens
to impose conditions on arms sales to Israel or an all-out weapons embargo is
all it would take to force Israel to end the war and come to the negotiating
table. Mr. Netanyahu suggested in his news conference that might not be that
simple.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimB0Y6LZmlSaHe5UreTIyIDiweVIGtPoWaQH7TLspDxUDa86bNw2B2t2VaQtRiif_WQsCtUfKD9aIQ3Z6cOTcFRTkVvr8NdvV5twaojd0Jy3EjcK8uuqMa8pHLOUaG2zw_bp3TJuqt8Lw0FOSLq2aiM8-BrPXgYNLgGV-quE8YlrMxcyusUFi5nTE4mUw/s624/Biden%20Netanyahu.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="390" data-original-width="624" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimB0Y6LZmlSaHe5UreTIyIDiweVIGtPoWaQH7TLspDxUDa86bNw2B2t2VaQtRiif_WQsCtUfKD9aIQ3Z6cOTcFRTkVvr8NdvV5twaojd0Jy3EjcK8uuqMa8pHLOUaG2zw_bp3TJuqt8Lw0FOSLq2aiM8-BrPXgYNLgGV-quE8YlrMxcyusUFi5nTE4mUw/s320/Biden%20Netanyahu.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">US President Joe
Biden, right, meets with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in New York,
September 20, 2023. Photo: AP Photo/Susan Walsh</span></i><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">The </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/israeli-shift-in-military-tactics-threatens-to-be-a-double-edged-sword"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">balance of power in the
US-Israeli relationship has shifted</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">US
financial support amounted in 1981 to ten per cent of Israel's GDP. The US’
annual US$4 billion allocation in 2021 accounted for only one per cent of GDP.
Moreover, Israel today produces many of its most essential weapons
domestically, making it less dependent on US arms sales.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">In
addition, Israel concluded in 1991 that it could no longer blindly rely on US
protection after the United States did not come to its aid when Iraq fired Scud
missiles at the Jewish state during that year’s Gulf war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Despite
remaining dependent on US vetoes in the United Nations Security Council and
military cooperation, Israel has worked to increase its margin of autonomy,
much like Gulf states did three decades later after the United States failed to
respond to Iranian-inspired attacks on their critical infrastructure in 2019
and. 2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Moreover,
the United States’ unconditional commitment to Israel is a double-edged sword.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">“Far
from feeling that they owe the Americans any favours, Israeli decision-makers
in crisis are likely wagering that US interests in maintaining an established
strategic partnership against shared and emboldened enemies, including the
Houthis and Iranians, will </span><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/16/us-israel-gaza-conditional-aid-diplomacy/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">prevent Washington from
pressing too hard on Israeli policymakers</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">,” said international relations
scholar Barbara Elias.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Writing
in Foreign Policy, Ms. Elias suggested that pressure on Israel would likely be
most effective if the United States took unilateral steps that would put Israel
on the spot rather than resorting to the traditional threat to impose
conditions if Israel fails to heed US advice.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Such
steps could include a threat to unilaterally release detailed information
regarding targeting in Gaza, an independent inquiry into civilian deaths in
Gaza, and</span> <span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">providing
humanitarian aid with or without Israel’s cooperation. The United States could
also recognise Palestine as a state even before the state is established as
many in the international community have done.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">“The
coercive message…is ‘either you implement X policy, or we will’… The historical
record suggests that a credible threat of unilateral U.S. action can nudge
Israel to move closer to US positions… (Moreover), it boosts US bargaining
credibility regionally and reinforces that the US is an autonomous actor in the
conflict… This may be increasingly important as the US may need to press
against sustained Israeli occupation of Gaza and strengthen its ties to key
Arab partners… Lastly, unilateral action will allow the US to do more than just
lament Palestinian civilian deaths,” Ms. Elias said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The
Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div></div></div></div>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-8462423906548323612024-02-16T23:02:00.003+08:002024-02-16T23:02:53.416+08:00First Qatar, Now Saudi Arabia: Time for Activists to Rethink<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB7Z69US2BThQyiFVl-VtcbYTlCult5R3t5IbGQImkM5eAzDn-6XD72ER28cgzVK3BCDleh9QujIr586FTApAZ9urD0wCn4ZjtPX7I9TuAdJ0Wr1WhHK75q4SeEEzxddt-ZGWpEV9kBYO7erd3sS5xncF8fSS2xVNCaiS2YQ3N6w-naplYLSzrnDy8Dvg/s1280/First%20Qatar%20Now%20Saudi%20Arabia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB7Z69US2BThQyiFVl-VtcbYTlCult5R3t5IbGQImkM5eAzDn-6XD72ER28cgzVK3BCDleh9QujIr586FTApAZ9urD0wCn4ZjtPX7I9TuAdJ0Wr1WhHK75q4SeEEzxddt-ZGWpEV9kBYO7erd3sS5xncF8fSS2xVNCaiS2YQ3N6w-naplYLSzrnDy8Dvg/s320/First%20Qatar%20Now%20Saudi%20Arabia.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By James M.
Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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subscription options. Thank you.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To watch a video version of
this story on YouTube please click</span></em><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://youtu.be/jbA4qzTcEco" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> here.</span></em></a></span><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></em></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An audio podcast is available on </span></em></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/first-qatar-now-saudi-arabia-time-for-activists-to-rethink" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud.</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This
column is based on remarks by the author at </span></i><a href="https://www.playthegame.org/"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Play the Game</span></i></a><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
realisation that Saudi Arabia is not Qatar may seem obvious, but it has
significant meaning for the lessons rights activists and others draw from the
Qatar World Cup as they prepare for a </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/15/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-fifa-world-cup.html"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Saudi-hosted tournament in 2034</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPVLJpenCbhCmwCr7qBkNZHlQCPI2DBwF4OaDK8h9o3Llyu4YIHigXXPufSqvP2eQeS5-MFZD_uweuehNFeueUgOs1fg8bcQSZawpGIdeQ6pdx-9NyvGOkrleffGB1pIGJFB8sylF7g1rj2tD3PYOTcPVvGUfedU2vxeqtLGp_T3LtsjMg7okDrVcRv6M/s624/Saudi%20Argentina.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPVLJpenCbhCmwCr7qBkNZHlQCPI2DBwF4OaDK8h9o3Llyu4YIHigXXPufSqvP2eQeS5-MFZD_uweuehNFeueUgOs1fg8bcQSZawpGIdeQ6pdx-9NyvGOkrleffGB1pIGJFB8sylF7g1rj2tD3PYOTcPVvGUfedU2vxeqtLGp_T3LtsjMg7okDrVcRv6M/s320/Saudi%20Argentina.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Saudi Arabian fans celebrate the 2-1
win during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 Group C match between Argentina and
Saudi Arabia on November 22, 2022. Photo: GETTY IMAGES<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Understanding
the differences will frame efforts to pressure Saudi Arabia to adhere to all
kinds of rights, including human, women, worker, and gender diversity rights. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
differences further call into question whether sportswashing is the most
accurate framing or whether the term risks missing the point of what Gulf state
involvement in sports is about.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Gulf is
all about security and geopolitics. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Reputational
concerns, soft power, and utility to the international community mean different
things to countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia and count for far more than reputation
on rights issues. This is not to say that reputation in terms of rights is not
important but to determine where it ranks on the Qatari and Saudi priority
list.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Because of its
size, Qatar understands that it is far more dependent on its reputation for its
defence and security strategy than for example Saudi Arabia.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">One lesson Qatar
has drawn from the World Cup experience is that rights issues are not the
foremost factor determining its reputation and value to the international
community. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For Qatar,
sports is as much a pillar of a multi-pronged security-driven soft power policy
as it is about economic diversification and public health. Sports is more a
function of positioning Qatar as the ultimate go-between and meeting place than
it is about reputation. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Qatar concluded
that rights issues were not a determining factor from the way it was able to
tighten relations with the United States and other Western countries during the
</span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/05/arab-states-agree-deal-to-end-three-year-boycott-of-qatar"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Saud-UAE-led 3.5-year-long economic
and diplomatic boycott of Qatar</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> that ended in 2021, and its increased importance as a gas
producer as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">What this in
effect means is that without Western nations adhering to the values they
profess, rights campaigns are likely to be waged on a shaky fundament. That has
become even truer with the evident contradictions in Western policy towards
Ukraine and Gaza. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For
activists to compensate for what amounts to their Achilles Heel, they will have
to be seen to be holding as much Western nations to account as they do in
focusing on Saudi Arabia. In that same vein, activists will have to be seen far
more than was the case with Qatar as distancing themselves from criticism that
is racially tinted, including anti-Muslim sentiment.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Saudi Arabia
is certain to be a different kettle of fish. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Qatar saw
virtue in engaging with its critics irrespective of how sincere Qatar’s
engagement was. In doing so, it broke ranks with other Gulf states. Saudi
Arabia is unlikely to see an upside in engagement. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Unlike
Qatar, Saudi Arabia feels it has leverage and does not need to pay attention to
activists and others. It feels that it ranks in the top tier of players on the
international stage where rights issues are not a determining factor. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It’s what
allows Saudi Arabia to poke the United States in the eye on human rights and
get away with it. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has proof positive given his
ability to successfully put </span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45812399"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul behind
him. <o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju8vSTnvc1mZAQxKbSBIRFkN9E1egi8VHoIxhjlCL4ZzHlC7RduoNipz2VAyUV15QyA7_l_17rcsMl6gGTQUHq7W9DDm4CGrIRkcrJcG_uroFnWlDsuz4ZYhuAAu9acKohcmwv08cWx7R7aPXa7Ek8-reI-W8l9v4LJ_nDvCtM5cZKixxff6pIiMeMFww/s624/MbS.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju8vSTnvc1mZAQxKbSBIRFkN9E1egi8VHoIxhjlCL4ZzHlC7RduoNipz2VAyUV15QyA7_l_17rcsMl6gGTQUHq7W9DDm4CGrIRkcrJcG_uroFnWlDsuz4ZYhuAAu9acKohcmwv08cWx7R7aPXa7Ek8-reI-W8l9v4LJ_nDvCtM5cZKixxff6pIiMeMFww/s320/MbS.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="background: #FBFBFE; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman Photo:</span></i><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anadolu Agency via Getty Images<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Bin
Salman also made clear in a recent </span><a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=bin+salman+fox+news+interview&sca_esv=85ac6a756d1f0a52&sxsrf=ACQVn09VWuNallGD_sGcpDxW5oCfKlS4Ig%3A1708061396468&ei=1PLOZeiUHL2NnesP9IKtuAU&oq=bin+salman+&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiC2JpbiBzYWxtYW4gKgIIATIEECMYJzIEECMYJzIEECMYJzIFEAAYgAQyCxAAGIAEGIoFGJECMgsQABiABBiKBRiRAjIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgARIgjFQAFjsGHAAeAGQAQCYAYsBoAGMCqoBBDAuMTG4AQHIAQD4AQHCAgoQIxiABBiKBRgnwgIXEC4YgAQYigUYkQIYsQMYgwEYxwEY0QPCAhEQABiABBiKBRiRAhixAxiDAcICChAuGIAEGIoFGEPCAgsQABiABBixAxiDAcICFBAuGIAEGIoFGLEDGIMBGMcBGNEDwgILEC4YgAQYsQMYgwHCAgsQLhiABBiKBRiRAsICEBAAGIAEGIoFGEMYsQMYgwHCAggQABiABBixA8ICChAAGIAEGIoFGEPCAgUQLhiABMICDRAuGIAEGMcBGNEDGAo&sclient=gws-wiz-serp#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:fe65b09b,vid:10wEAK2OwsI,st:0"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Fox News interview</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> that he could not care less about
allegations of sportswashing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The trick in
breaking through Saudi armour is going to be identifying entry points where
Saudi Arabia may have an interest in change, keeping in mind that, unlike
Qatar, Saudi Arabia will be far less interested in being seen as working with
rights groups. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Saudi Arabia
will want to project any potential change as being wholly its decision much
like Mr. Bin Salman handled the </span><a href="https://www.ibanet.org/article/c8d82237-545d-4fca-ad14-3e56add4734b"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">2018 lifting of a ban on women’s
driving</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. While
lifting the ban, the crown prince </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/11/saudi-arabia-women-rights-activists-that-are-still-in-jail"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">incarcerated activists who had long
campaigned for women’s right to drive</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> to ensure that they would not get any of the credit.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This will
take engagement that puts naming and shaming as a tactic on the back burner and
a tool one resorts to as a last resort on the understanding that it would
likely lead to a slamming of the door rather than a change of heart.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It will also
take creative packaging of what’s in it for Saudi Arabia. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Fact of the
matter is that all the traditional arguments in favour of the value of
respecting rights are considerations that have no meaning for Mr. Bin Salman.
They will only have meaning, if and when Western democracies put their money
where their mouth is and are willing to pay a price for standing up for values
they profess. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Whatever
chance Western nations had in projecting themselves on the back of Ukraine as
willing to do so has been undermined by the Gaza war, meaning it will take a
lot more to restore credibility and leverage. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It’s a
reality that affects the standing of major non-governmental organisations like
Amnesty and Human Rights Watch, that irrespective of their condemnations of
Israel policy before and after October 7 are perceived, rightly or wrongly, as
Western organizations.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL80acxxK-BoRtSp72ve7ld9NfhR5q_rcLN5G4gTkBXW4ONr0ajd1ZXWe6EcKP0qs3dyE2YaNc1ObfQWK5CXIsArHZq4PAA-RFHxgtXfgE2mb2-PUjo60zcG9EXY9GjXqc-lLXnaqxDT9knlvpb9el6d1xn1_ft6Byv7FiwbeoQpUgimluLpPU8hGvOhg/s624/Saudi%20human%20rights.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL80acxxK-BoRtSp72ve7ld9NfhR5q_rcLN5G4gTkBXW4ONr0ajd1ZXWe6EcKP0qs3dyE2YaNc1ObfQWK5CXIsArHZq4PAA-RFHxgtXfgE2mb2-PUjo60zcG9EXY9GjXqc-lLXnaqxDT9knlvpb9el6d1xn1_ft6Byv7FiwbeoQpUgimluLpPU8hGvOhg/s320/Saudi%20human%20rights.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="background: #FBFBFE; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Amnesty
International has repeatedly called out Saudi Arabia for its poor human rights
record. Photo: Getty Image</span></i><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">What is
clear is that what’s in it for Mr. Bin Salman is closely aligned with his
determination to maintain his grip on power, his vision of Saudi Arabia’s place
in the world, and relevance to his economic diversification plans.
Understanding that these are the divers of Saudi Arabia’s massive invasion of
global sports is key to putting a kink in his armour.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Labour
rights may be the foremost entry point where Saudi Arabia could see an interest
in engaging, particularly if the propositioning is framed less in terms of
rights and more in terms of a Saudi reformed labour regime that potentially could
serve as a model for others. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">All of this
is food for thought as one evaluates Qatar-related activism and thinks about
how to approach Saudi hosting of a World Cup.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk136859387"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct
Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i></a><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk136859387;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Turbulent World with James M.
Dorsey</span></i></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk136859387;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk136859387;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p><br /></div></div></div></div></div></div><p></p>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-30305487952412398082024-02-12T02:14:00.006+08:002024-02-12T02:14:24.478+08:00Flying under the radar: China tightens grip on Uighurs.<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsKZ6AIeW3tF80v5vrLXrBzPF4ZriC0lIiavtvcyopHleFfusB6D7aiV4bnSOyqboPTNokxBn8XTLtKrV2XkAsgu8-GqrwI4ASKIXlr7oeioyqmOznT0v08jwq3QrvMqWIN6pvfs58NSXCB9XNsj9PepwOmgnomSdQ8kNYQxf9cKgKsg8fB5GtLg6ZImc/s1280/China%20Uighurs%20Gaza.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsKZ6AIeW3tF80v5vrLXrBzPF4ZriC0lIiavtvcyopHleFfusB6D7aiV4bnSOyqboPTNokxBn8XTLtKrV2XkAsgu8-GqrwI4ASKIXlr7oeioyqmOznT0v08jwq3QrvMqWIN6pvfs58NSXCB9XNsj9PepwOmgnomSdQ8kNYQxf9cKgKsg8fB5GtLg6ZImc/s320/China%20Uighurs%20Gaza.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By James M. Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
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<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To watch a video version of
this story on YouTube please click</span></em><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://youtu.be/E7ONLyjeI24" target="_blank"><span style="font-style: normal;"> here.</span></a> </span></u></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An audio podcast is available on </span></em></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/flying-under-the-radar-china-tightens-grip-on-uighurs" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud</span></em></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.</span></u></em></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">China’s northwestern province of Xinjiang has taken advantage
of the international community’s focus on Gaza and US support for Israel, to tighten
control of the region’s Turkic Muslim Uighur population, reshape Islam, and
engage in social engineering.<o:p></o:p></span></p><br /><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhehkngkYSjJkePUAwo9gSwc7vyRGY8n8g0Wq8dTpfggkrKg2RSAjjYBDG-EVenwJ33iySgOphKaobUN9Xj9tFpisS8vY5Mnw-7sC22hB3t46DXMqmAfMv-bqeSJ8-vEAxawzintyxbI_b5tWo8kMglr-NLBt0NOeDHx3AOkIF-ofSVk_DjlE86gX7VwpI/s624/Uighurs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhehkngkYSjJkePUAwo9gSwc7vyRGY8n8g0Wq8dTpfggkrKg2RSAjjYBDG-EVenwJ33iySgOphKaobUN9Xj9tFpisS8vY5Mnw-7sC22hB3t46DXMqmAfMv-bqeSJ8-vEAxawzintyxbI_b5tWo8kMglr-NLBt0NOeDHx3AOkIF-ofSVk_DjlE86gX7VwpI/s320/Uighurs.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">The Uyghurs are the largest minority
ethnic group in China's north-western province of Xinjiang. Photo: Getty Image</span></i><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As the international community grapples with the Gaza
carnage, Xinjiang’s authorities </span><a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3247467/chinas-xinjiang-region-says-all-new-religious-buildings-must-reflect-chinese-characteristics"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">updated regulations</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> designed to further isolate
religious communities from their counterparts abroad, align their religious
doctrine with Chinese Communist Party principles, and weaken separate ethnic
identities.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Intended to bring Xinjiang’s regulatory framework in line
with national Chinese laws and regulations adopted since 2014, the revised
rules came into force this week, days after China published a </span><a href="http://english.scio.gov.cn/whitepapers/2024-01/23/content_116958678_8.htm"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">white paper</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> outlining the legal framework for
its counterterrorism efforts.</span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The regulations affect all religious groups, including
Christians, Taoists, and Buddhists. However, they particularly affect Muslims who
account for at least 50 per cent of Xinjiang’s 26 million people.</span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Activists charge the updates legalise various aspects of
Chinese repression. A 2022 UN report concluded China was committing "</span><a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/china-xinjiang-bachelet-report-uyghur-activists/32014489.html"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">serious human rights violation<b>s</b></span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">" in Xinjiang that may amount to
crimes against humanity.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;">
</p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“This law is the </span><a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/china-strict-rules-islam-xinjiang/32798502.html"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">legalization of all those previous
actions</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,” said Bekzat
Maksutkhan, a Kazakhstan-based activist focused on ethnic Kazakhs in Xinjiang.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMONY8_NvQKsA9i7oTycajpTFbAAh4KYEoJ6LBeWVu_InZODH-WEis0uR71nH9KT-3XdQE8fKa0iEfmalLv2gRZrAVoCt_FbSeWE_5BBhWzENc0Pjy-U8ZCoi0xe0oUSTwbptOUG8oI934hrs05KfXNatsyz91H_ipt1I3fqG3WqrIq4Vh0DniOZryvQ4/s599/Bekzat%20Maxutkanuly.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="599" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMONY8_NvQKsA9i7oTycajpTFbAAh4KYEoJ6LBeWVu_InZODH-WEis0uR71nH9KT-3XdQE8fKa0iEfmalLv2gRZrAVoCt_FbSeWE_5BBhWzENc0Pjy-U8ZCoi0xe0oUSTwbptOUG8oI934hrs05KfXNatsyz91H_ipt1I3fqG3WqrIq4Vh0DniOZryvQ4/s320/Bekzat%20Maxutkanuly.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Chinese-born
Kazakh activist Bekzat Maxutkanuly poses for a photo in a restaurant in Almaty,
Kazakhstan. Photo: AP Photo/Dake Kang<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The timing of the updated regulations and the paper is
fortuitous, if not deliberate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Determined not to be sucked into escalating Middle Eastern
tensions, China is betting that Arab and Muslim states will look the other way
as it seeks to redefine Islam.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In lockstep with Chinese efforts to reshape Islam, China’s
tightly controlled Internet has been flooded with </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/08/china-antisemitism-online-tool-west-gaza/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">virulent anti-Semitic comments</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> since the outbreak of the Gaza war
in October.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">China appears to see anti-Jewish hate speech as a means of
fuelling anti-US and anti-Western sentiment in the Middle East and placating
public opinion in the Middle East enraged by Western support for Israel.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Anti-Jewish comments include frequent comparisons of Jews to
Nazis and conspiracy theories that American Jews control power and wealth in
the United States.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In late January, Chinese social media influencer Zhou
Zheng" posted on his Haokan Video account a video titled </span><a href="https://www.memri.org/tv/chinese-influencer-zheng-antisemitic-video-never-believe-what-the-jews-say-conspiracies"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Never Believe What the Jews Say.’</span></a></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mr. Zhou asserted that “homeless” and “filthy rich Jews”
prior to the Holocaust had betrayed Germany by seizing control of the German
economy prior to the Holocaust. Mr. Zhou claimed that Jews had collaborated
with Japan against China in World War II and in the mid-1800s incited Britain
to invade China.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">China has reason to believe that its anti-Muslim and
anti-Jewish campaigns are safe bets.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Arab and Muslim nations remained silent, and in some cases
even endorsed past repression of the Uighurs, including the incarceration of </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/the-uyghur-militant-threat-china-cracks-down-and-mulls-policy-changes"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">an estimated one million in
reeducation prisons</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The bet assumes that Arab and Muslim states, already
disinclined to rock economic ties with China, will not want to strain relations
at a time of uncertainty over the US commitment to Middle East security.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It also assumes that anti-Semitism will land on receptive
ears because of the Gaza war, even if Arab media limit anti-Jewish as opposed
to anti-Israeli speech.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">China further assumes that Arab autocrats, like Saudi Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman and United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin
Zayed, share with China an interest in controlling Islam and combatting
political Islam.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1EwhK8WtrgL_ryDjtWGq3U0Gi7MQZYtyy8XA_pqDwqEdpYYR1aiDBZaL_WjhWj58ZGr6_vbJ3EnDApIp0LtTCV4GKM37BhYkdX5TCWQMl4BurRZEobud9hhZDyinyAqXnY_nLksOa1fHFS8i2MOLTiMc6QPnEfps5X3SJ29-_8vTA3kk0CG1FkypxVeQ/s540/MbS%20MbZ.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="405" data-original-width="540" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1EwhK8WtrgL_ryDjtWGq3U0Gi7MQZYtyy8XA_pqDwqEdpYYR1aiDBZaL_WjhWj58ZGr6_vbJ3EnDApIp0LtTCV4GKM37BhYkdX5TCWQMl4BurRZEobud9hhZDyinyAqXnY_nLksOa1fHFS8i2MOLTiMc6QPnEfps5X3SJ29-_8vTA3kk0CG1FkypxVeQ/s320/MbS%20MbZ.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">UAE President Mohamed Bin Zayed with
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman. Photo: WAM</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">China’s risk is that Arab autocrats’ calculations could change
in the wake of the Gaza war.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Relations with China are likely to figure in recently </span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/saudis-resume-us-defense-talks-after-pause-forced-by-hamas-war"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">revived US-Saudi defence cooperation
talks</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">. The talks
were put on hold because of the war.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Saudi Arabia </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/saudi-israeli-deal-would-be-a-gamechanger-but-not-for-the-reasons-discussed"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">hopes to ultimately walk away from
the talks</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> with a
legally binding US commitment to the kingdom and the region’s security, support
for its ambitious civilian nuclear program, and a credible pathway to a
resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in exchange for the establishment
of diplomatic relations with Israel.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">No one expects Saudi Arabia to weaken its economic ties with
China, its largest oil customer. Nor is the kingdom expected to publicly
criticise the People’s Republic.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Even so, the United States will seek to ring-fence Saudi
Arabia’s relationship with China by limiting technology cooperation between the
two countries and extracting a pledge that the kingdom will not host or endorse
Chinese bases in the Gulf.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The limitations would involve Chinese surveillance technology
prevalent across China that has been deployed in Xinjiang to keep Uyghurs in
check.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In 2022, Saudi Arabia inked a deal during a visit by Chinese
President Xi Jinping </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/saudi-lays-lavish-welcome-chinas-xi-heralds-new-era-relations-2022-12-08/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">with Huawei Technologies Co</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">., the communications giant the US
sees as a stalking horse for Chinese Communist Party influence. The deal involves
cloud computing and the building of high-tech complexes in Saudi cities and a
data center.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiesNcB3mEaAF2Ydlt4CppCd4n_OGrOmHBctzBN143F-yU4rx-G7nalfSyXdPnIXrgnkAZtnGf0Lbw2CYN6eoGIsv12sAv0j24-qJ-uMcjyZR-ZNokMABtNHL8v3Nw17JOFhPPBqJnYcROCD42jIJfRxKQLb-WCzhUogn6mbWq8mpT25wCjDhHx1OJcqhA/s624/MbS%20Xi.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiesNcB3mEaAF2Ydlt4CppCd4n_OGrOmHBctzBN143F-yU4rx-G7nalfSyXdPnIXrgnkAZtnGf0Lbw2CYN6eoGIsv12sAv0j24-qJ-uMcjyZR-ZNokMABtNHL8v3Nw17JOFhPPBqJnYcROCD42jIJfRxKQLb-WCzhUogn6mbWq8mpT25wCjDhHx1OJcqhA/s320/MbS%20Xi.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 15.0pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><i><span lang="EN-PH" style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-PH; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-PH; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Saudi Crown Prince
Mohammed Bin Salman welcomes Chinese President Xi Jinping in Riyadh, Saudi
Arabia. Photo: Royal Court of Saudi Arabia/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">In the past, Saudi Arabia has moved beyond looking the other
way to endorse Uyghur repression.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;">
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">China’s state-owned CCTV quoted Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman as saying in 2019, “China has the right to take anti-terrorism and
de-extremism measures to safeguard national security. </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/2/23/saudi-crown-prince-defends-chinas-right-to-fight-terrorism"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Saudi Arabia respects and supports it</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> and is willing to strengthen
cooperation with China.”</span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The Chinese white paper asserts that China confronted a
serious terrorism problem in the 2010s, but insists its crackdown on the Uyghurs
was in line with the rule of law and respect for human rights.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Arguing that “religious extremism is not religion,” the paper
said that China “while striking hard at unlawful and criminal terrorist
activities…attaches greater importance to the education and rehabilitation of
victims of extremist teachings who have committed only minor offenses.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The paper frames the revised regulations that govern
religions, and the responsibilities of indigenous religious organizations and
professionals.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Home to 47 ethnic groups, Xinjiang’s Ili Kazakh autonomous
prefecture one of China’s most ethnically diverse regions bordering on
Kazakhstan, has taken the regulations a step further with the adoption of </span><a href="https://www.ts.cn/xwzx/szxw/202312/t20231214_17922852.shtml"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">measures to encourage ethnic groups
to mingle</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">, as part
of Mr. Xi’s goal to forge one national identity.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The measures promote mixed housing, a principle applied in
Singapore, and the creation of cultural parks and public areas that “promote…a
social structure and community environment that embeds all ethnic groups” and showcase
the region as part of the “Chinese nation.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Uyghurs have long complained that China has sought to </span><a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Xinjiang-frustration-over-Chinese-encroachment-grows"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">dilute their presence in Xinjiang</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">, their historic homeland, through
labour transfer programs, by importing Han Chinese, and forcing birth control
despite a 2021 official report that asserted </span><a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/uyghur/population-white-paper-09302021162942.html"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">a 1.67 per cent Uyghur compounded
annual growth rate</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> in
the past two decades.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The updated regulations do not single out Muslims, but they
are the prime target. They leave little room for doubt about their purpose.
They aim is to create a Chinese Islam and Muslim culture that is defined by the
party rather than religious tradition and practice and scholarly debate.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">“Religious venues are to be, effectively, training grounds
that promote the values of the Chinese Communist Party to the people” Human
Rights Watch charged in a statement.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Religious communities, professionals, and activities must
“practice Core Socialist Values” and “adhere to our nation's orientation
towards the Sinification of religion,” the </span><a href="https://www.chinalawtranslate.com/en/xj-religious-affairs/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">regulations</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> stipulate. They specify that religion
should not interfere with "clothing, weddings, funerals, and other ethnic
customs."</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The regulations oblige religious groups to ensure that “interpretations
of religious teachings and rules (are) in line with contemporary China's
requirements for development and improvement, and in line with the outstanding
traditional Chinese culture.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The updates expand the 2014 rules that defined as “extremist”
traditional Muslim attire, including men’s beards and women’s headscarves, and
penalised possession of digital recordings of Qur’an recitations.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The updates require religious schools to “operate…with
Chinese characteristics” defined as “cultivating patriotic religious talents”
and “correctly interpreting religious doctrine.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Legitimising a massive mosque remodelling campaign in recent
years, the updates demand that “religious activity sites that are newly built
or renovated, expanded, or rebuilt…reflect Chinese characteristics and style in
areas such as their architecture, sculptures, paintings, and decorations.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">A 2020 Australian Strategic Policy Institute study concluded </span><a href="https://www.aspi.org.au/report/cultural-erasure"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">that two-thirds of Xinjiang’s had already been altered</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">, often removing domes and minarets.
Human Rights Watch reported last year that Sinicising mosques had expanded
beyond Xinjiang into other Chinese provinces.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">China’s efforts to Sinicise Islam have so far stopped short
of altering doctrine. Also, China has not detailed what a “correct
interpretation” would be beyond a reference to patriotism. Tackling the doctrine
may be a red line for Arab and Muslim nations that China does not want to
cross.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Nevertheless, China has gotten away with murder. Imagine the
uproar that would erupt if a non-Muslim country attempted to reshape Islam.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%;"><a name="_Hlk136859387"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct
Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i></a><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Turbulent World with James M.
Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a></p><br /></div></div></div></div></div>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-15357862052498930312024-02-09T07:27:00.006+08:002024-02-09T07:27:44.566+08:00Blinken finds a hardened political landscape as he tours the Middle East<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcTRUNFXws_oFkNzKxowKl4Y6LLk_p3UyVoU45-czmR_AqUUO90NiHTA_P__xGaWrAfkVEVZ-EPq5k7-TG5LxGQup3bqXwrQY0drC1SrPTRF0Eh2zchJ8RqIcF8Ih0g9k31_p8cJWdmQfvS1euBOxwh4jtpO2A5WH5iLUYRm6qdJ-KrlA0cwjQnBiqf2g/s1280/Hardened%20political%20landscape.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcTRUNFXws_oFkNzKxowKl4Y6LLk_p3UyVoU45-czmR_AqUUO90NiHTA_P__xGaWrAfkVEVZ-EPq5k7-TG5LxGQup3bqXwrQY0drC1SrPTRF0Eh2zchJ8RqIcF8Ih0g9k31_p8cJWdmQfvS1euBOxwh4jtpO2A5WH5iLUYRm6qdJ-KrlA0cwjQnBiqf2g/s320/Hardened%20political%20landscape.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 105%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 105%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">By James M. Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 105%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 105%;">The Turbulent World with James M.
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<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To
watch a video version of this story on YouTube please click</span></em><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "DengXian Light"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://youtu.be/q_M6vMu4YuU" target="_blank"><span style="font-style: normal; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> here.</span></a></span></u></em><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></u></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An audio podcast is available on </span></em></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/blinken-finds-a-substantially-altered-politics-landscape-as-he-tours-the-middle-east" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Aptos",serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud.</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 105%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 105%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">US Secretary of State
Antony J. Blinken has found a hardened political landscape as he </span><a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-02-05-2024-44028d8b5fcfc32ce4f96cfba9cd1702"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 105%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">tours the
Middle East for the fifth time</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 105%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> since the Gaza war erupted.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 105%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSAuTytIJAJIsmVv-18RqTcO400KQy9wbZlL7Hdl9VE-cq7v0Nxuxq858iPqsN2aRGbvT_Sl-X7Ky5eHcP3ljsganik2QgbOad4UsbBBd6GI5xQCeog5SnYH3HQi9t3TWUClNMMFAes5NfUq2CMGrfA7yho8mxY92jIZBo0UOots1p6m-oKAvuRkTjLLw/s624/Blinken.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSAuTytIJAJIsmVv-18RqTcO400KQy9wbZlL7Hdl9VE-cq7v0Nxuxq858iPqsN2aRGbvT_Sl-X7Ky5eHcP3ljsganik2QgbOad4UsbBBd6GI5xQCeog5SnYH3HQi9t3TWUClNMMFAes5NfUq2CMGrfA7yho8mxY92jIZBo0UOots1p6m-oKAvuRkTjLLw/s320/Blinken.png" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">Secretary of State Antony J.
Blinken delivers remarks to employees at the U.S. Department of State in
Washington, D.C. Photo: State Department/Ron Przysucha/ Public Domain<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 105%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 105%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">The war has toughened Israeli and Palestinian
positions. At the same time, Saudi Arabia appears eager to finalise a </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/saudi-israeli-deal-would-be-a-gamechanger-but-not-for-the-reasons-discussed"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">comprehensive package deal</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> that would include recognition of Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Even so, the obstacles to securing a ceasefire
and the exchange of the remaining 136 Hamas-held hostages and bodies of
captives killed in Gaza for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons remain
formidable. So, do the impediments to bridging differences on achieving a package
deal.</span></p>
<p class="pb-2"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Hamas kidnapped some 250 civilians and Israeli military personnel
during its October 7 attack on Israel in which more than 1,100 people, mostly
civilians, were killed. </span><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif;">In
November, Qatar negotiated a </span><span class="issue-underline"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "DengXian Light"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast;">one-week truce during</span></span><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif;"> which Hamas swapped more than 100
hostages for 240 Palestinians incarcerated in Israel. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">Raising the stakes, Israeli Prime Minister
Binyamin Netanyahu this week left Mr. Blinken seemingly empty-handed by
rejecting as “</span><a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/07/netanyahu-hostage-deal-hamas-gaza-israel"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">crazy</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">” a Hamas proposal for a prolonged ceasefire and a prisoner swap. The
proposal was a response to a ceasefire plan drafted by Qatar, Egypt, and the
United States.<o:p></o:p></span></p><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 105%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1pmWihdqxzPC_3uH95-SiQFRB8KoJJcvveFKSj8bxi0NtyXbMLqVJOmBsSPe-57w5mKrQxYUtQLGvfDa5Qho2i0PcP0WI86ohtsfuXqq09-RMTUIrdG-cfarr5OZ8KZMDFTMrIuS__sNPtLTlqXJKSTnbvSsn0A7PCw7-nPbjftVrJhwM91W2zl2hrjE/s624/Blinken%20Netanyahu.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="624" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1pmWihdqxzPC_3uH95-SiQFRB8KoJJcvveFKSj8bxi0NtyXbMLqVJOmBsSPe-57w5mKrQxYUtQLGvfDa5Qho2i0PcP0WI86ohtsfuXqq09-RMTUIrdG-cfarr5OZ8KZMDFTMrIuS__sNPtLTlqXJKSTnbvSsn0A7PCw7-nPbjftVrJhwM91W2zl2hrjE/s320/Blinken%20Netanyahu.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">U.S. Secretary
of State Antony Blinken meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in
Jerusalem, Feb. 7, 2024. Photo: Amos Ben-Gershom/GPO.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 105%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 105%; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">Mr. Netanyahu implied there was no need to engage
with Hamas because “we are nearly there with complete victory” adding that
Israel would “not do less than that.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">For his part, Mr. Blinken described a ceasefire
agreement as “essential,” raising the question whether Israeli-US relations
have reached a point where the US will have to apply overt pressure rather than
maintain its bear hug approach to force Mr. Netanyahu’s hand.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">“While there are some clear non-starters in
Hamas’s response, we do think </span><a href="https://thehill.com/policy/international/4454374-blinken-said-hamas-sent-non-starters-on-hostage-deal-negotiations-to-continue/#:~:text=Secretary%20of%20State%20Antony%20Blinken%20on%20Wednesday%20said%20Hamas's%20response,an%20opening%20for%20ongoing%20negotiations." style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">it creates space for agreement</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> to be reached and we will work at that
relentlessly until we get there,” Mr. Blinken said.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mr. Blinken is not alone in thinking so. A Hamas
delegation headed to Cairo for talks with Egyptian officials barely 24 hours
after Mr. Netanyahu rejected the group’s demands.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Sources close to Hamas suggested the delegation
would discuss logistical arrangements of the prisoner exchanges and the
enhanced flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza. The sources said the parties,
despite publicly playing hardball, were seeking to put an agreement in place
before early March when Ramadan, Islam’s holy month of fasting, begins.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Hamas has proposed </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-seeks-prisoner-hostage-exchange-withdrawal-israeli-forces-ceasefire-2024-02-07/" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">a 135-day truce involving three phases of 45 days
each</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> during which the
remaining hostages and bodies of captives killed in the Gaza fighting would be
exchanged for an unspecified number of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Prisoner swaps would be staggered over the
4.5-month truce. Reconstruction of war-ravaged Gaza would start during the
ceasefire.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Speaking on Al Jazeera, Hamas political bureau
member Mohammed Nazzal insisted that the group would not compromise on its
demand for a permanent ceasefire, an end to the war, and a withdrawal of
Israeli troops from Gaza.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj82toODHDq8AA27EABFHXDcf11Jh5l05d_HzGbaHS8rTWSj-QWfezUWkUs-VFudeXielbStTPxdvYjbD-Cmkefu2A1uqGlZW9eRpdsh4Fp2XSdbOaf_TDNjolDfg4Wecgw2gm19ZyaVojr_v6C44vQB6DeIc4APchlg82ZYhfRysO17lTajSIwqVRnZAc/s624/Mohammad%20Nazzal.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="624" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj82toODHDq8AA27EABFHXDcf11Jh5l05d_HzGbaHS8rTWSj-QWfezUWkUs-VFudeXielbStTPxdvYjbD-Cmkefu2A1uqGlZW9eRpdsh4Fp2XSdbOaf_TDNjolDfg4Wecgw2gm19ZyaVojr_v6C44vQB6DeIc4APchlg82ZYhfRysO17lTajSIwqVRnZAc/s320/Mohammad%20Nazzal.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #171717; font-size: 10pt;">Hamas member
Mohammad Nazzal speaks at a press conference in Beirut Photo: Al Jazeera<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">“The full ceasefire would be negotiated in the
second phase and embedded in other agreements. Any obstacles can be ironed out
in the negotiations for a final agreement,” Mr. Nazzal said.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Israel’s rejection of the plan stalls not only
the ceasefire talks but also US efforts to achieve a comprehensive package deal
aimed at resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.</span></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The deal would involve a legally binding US
defence commitment to the kingdom, US support for a Saudi civilian nuclear
program, Saudi unfettered access to US weaponry, the creation of an independent
Palestinian state, and diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Despite Mr. Netanyahu’s assertions of victory,
Israel has failed to deal Hamas a fatal blow. Four months into the war, Israel
has yet to hunt down Hamas’ most senior Gaza leaders. US intelligence estimates
that Israel has </span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-toll-thus-far-falls-short-of-israels-war-aims-u-s-says-d1c43164"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">killed or captured at most 30 per
cent of Hamas’ 30,000 strong fighting force</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Israel’s failure is compounded by the severe
tarnishing of its international standing because of its war conduct, the
consequences of which are likely to haunt Israel long after the guns fall
silent in Gaza. </span><a href="https://time.com/6559293/morning-consult-israel-global-opinion/"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">Israel’s reputational damage</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> leaves it dependent on US and Western support
that is likely to prove increasingly fragile.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Israel’s failure and reputational debacle has
emboldened Hamas. Like Israel, Hamas believes that hardening attitudes will
ultimately force the other side to capitulate.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Yet, its, at times, hardline statements that
reinforce Israel’s post-October 7 trauma complicate efforts to end the war and
facilitate creation of a Palestinian state as do equally hardline Israeli
statements that fuel Palestinian’s Gaza war trauma.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In Israel, the trauma has generated an embattled
fortress mentality with the state lashing out like a wounded and blinded
creature that has killed more than 27,000 people in its four-month-old assault
on Gaza.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In Hamas’ </span><a href="https://www.memri.org/reports/hamas-official-ali-baraka-hizbullah-tv-we-can-repeat-october-7-many-times-mujahideen-stormed"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">most recent statement</span></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> in what amounts to a war
of words among the deaf</span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">,
Ali Baraka, a Beirut-based official, told Al-Manar, the television channel of
Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, that "we can repeat October 7
many times… The Arab fighters…stormed (the Gaza Envelope) and tomorrow, they
will storm the Galilee. They will storm in from wherever they can.”</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 105%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9mcb5d5plbTo8bV7ppMFKQNpyEQ4uH2ooQpl5HqN73OqW7q4NX5we8hBwWYhk2YwpHSEJvVkz6PZ0QXe2EIZXZcoi99OKsly50alICsTYgy30iwyW5xK4f9f_W8nzDYNMl0kLh5xd64-iEAmtZUGWawWUNTimUcLgAsyI8LQHT5c7UUBElILvFjg9oTY/s620/Ali%20Baraka.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="348" data-original-width="620" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9mcb5d5plbTo8bV7ppMFKQNpyEQ4uH2ooQpl5HqN73OqW7q4NX5we8hBwWYhk2YwpHSEJvVkz6PZ0QXe2EIZXZcoi99OKsly50alICsTYgy30iwyW5xK4f9f_W8nzDYNMl0kLh5xd64-iEAmtZUGWawWUNTimUcLgAsyI8LQHT5c7UUBElILvFjg9oTY/s320/Ali%20Baraka.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="line-height: 105%;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><i><span style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">Ali Baraka, a senior Hamas official. Photo: Screenshot from AP video<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">Statements like that of Mr. Baraka strengthen Mr.
Netanyahu’s intransigence while ensuring that he stays caught in a Catch-22.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Mr. Netanyahu’s goals of destroying Hamas and
freeing the remaining hostages seem incompatible. Hostage families demand that the
</span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-hostage-families-gain-clout-political-landscape-shifts-2024-02-05/"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">prime minister prioritise the
release of their loved one even if that requires ending the war</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">. Yet, a majority of </span><a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/israel-war-in-gaza-support-idf-deaths-6k6fvrcgx"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">Israelis favour continuing the war</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> until Hamas is no more.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">At the same time, Mr. </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/haaretz-today/2024-02-05/ty-article/.highlight/why-israels-far-right-opposes-a-deal-to-free-israeli-hostages-held-by-hamas/0000018d-7a76-d9fb-a9fd-feff97bb0000"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">Netanyahu’s far-right coalition
partners threaten to bring his government down</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> if he agrees to a potential deal involving an
extended ceasefire and the release of large numbers of Palestinians from
Israeli jails.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“What (Mr. Netanyahu) fears most is </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-01-22/ty-article/.premium/netanyahu-is-running-out-of-lies/0000018d-31d5-d81e-abdf-39dda0270000"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">losing the majority in the Knesset</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> that took him four years and five election
campaigns, including 18 frustrating months out of office, to secure,” said
prominent Israeli journalist Anshel Pfeffer.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Like Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Hamas could face political reckoning once guns fall silent.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Some Palestinians have begun to publicly take
Hamas to task for provoking Israel’s assault on Gaza in a series of op-eds and
statements in Israeli, Saudi, and Emirati media.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">o be sure, the statements serve Gulf states’ and
Israeli interests. However, that does not necessarily diminish their sincerity even
if it is near impossible to gauge public opinion in Gaza and how it may evolve
once the fighting ends.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“The odd thing is that </span><a href="https://theliberal.co.il/letter-from-gaza/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">Israel is playing right into (Hamas’) hands</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">. I don't know why Israel doesn't understand that
its interest lies in separating the militants from the civilians, that this is
the way to weaken Hamas' standing,” said Gaza resident Abdullah, who identified
himself only by a first name in a column on the Israeli news website, The
Liberal.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">“The problem is that Hamas is the snake that grew
up in Israel's embrace. Benjamin Netanyahu and his government are the main ones
responsible for the growth of its military power. Israel did nothing when Hamas
seized control of Gaza, though it could have easily intervened and stopped the
coup, and Hamas went on to exploit Israel's blockade on Gaza. Hamas profited
from it, strengthened its presence, and boosted its popularity,” Mr. Abdullah
added.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Speaking on Dubai-based Sky News Arabia, Zaid
Alayoubi, head of a little-known Jerusalem-based thinktank, the Arab Center for
Strategic Affairs, suggested that “today, the people of Gaza are saying: True, </span><a href="https://www.memri.org/tv/palestinian-political-analyst-zaid-alayoubi-gaza-complaining-hamas-killing-people-ismail-haniyeh-october-seven-benefit"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">Israel is killing us, but Hamas is also killing
us</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Writing in Elaph, a London-based Saudi online
magazine, Palestinian journalist Majdi Abd Al-Wahhab asked: “How can we not
curse the people who caused this, given this complete devastation? </span><a href="https://elaph.com/Web/opinion/2024/01/1525282.html"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">How can we not curse Hamas</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> and its leaders after they have destroyed every
element of dignified existence in the Gaza Strip? When Hamas carried out its
attack...did it expect Israel to refrain from retaliating in force and
delivering blow after blow to Gaza, given its desire for revenge and
international backing…?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The criticism contrasted starkly with the results
of an Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies </span><a href="https://www.dohainstitute.org/en/Lists/ACRPS-PDFDocumentLibrary/arab-opinion-war-on-gaza-full-report-en.pdf"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">public opinion poll in 16 Arab countries</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">. Sixty-seven percent of those surveyed described
the October 7 attack as ‘legitimate,’ including 79 per cent of West Bank
Palestinians and 58 per cent of Saudis polled.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Overall, 89 per cent of those surveyed in the 16
countries rejected Israel’s recognition. Ninety-two per cent of West Bank
Palestinians and 68 per cent of Saudis polled shared that view.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Public support for Hamas’ October 7 attack and
rejection of Israel’s recognition explain subtle differences in statements by </span><a href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-qatari-prime-minister-and-minister-of-foreign-affairs-mohammed-bin-abdulrahman-al-thani-at-a-joint-press-availability-2/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">Mr. Blinken</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> and the </span><a href="https://twitter.com/KSAmofaEN/status/1755020860836962666"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">Saudi Foreign Ministry</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"> on a potential package deal.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Speaking in Doha earlier this week, Mr. Blinken
said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had reiterated Saudi Arabia’s strong
interest in pursuing relations with Israel conditioned on “an end to the
conflict in Gaza and a clear, credible, time-bound path to the establishment of
a Palestinian state.”</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP2GMAT9XcgyT0YmhDXD2i-srJhDvKHSG1vL5tjbodThEUfFFEtiXZOeCrFbbA7FEZGWiCVLGo0UaoOITOnSfMXKY1bq2KVhRhksZSqQHaosGcrSJGvHhwg5nZuPi3YkfGdkyIX0i7sBBzjKOc6qnTx_fj6RLmXza6_KMzMUoHqnblOt_WvPPyJdH_MsM/s624/MbS-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="445" data-original-width="624" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP2GMAT9XcgyT0YmhDXD2i-srJhDvKHSG1vL5tjbodThEUfFFEtiXZOeCrFbbA7FEZGWiCVLGo0UaoOITOnSfMXKY1bq2KVhRhksZSqQHaosGcrSJGvHhwg5nZuPi3YkfGdkyIX0i7sBBzjKOc6qnTx_fj6RLmXza6_KMzMUoHqnblOt_WvPPyJdH_MsM/s320/MbS-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #171717; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-themecolor: background2; mso-themeshade: 26;">Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, Crown Prince, Prime Minister,
and the Chairman of the Human Capability Development Program Committee. Photo: SPA<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">Saudi interest in a deal involving Israel while
Mr. Biden is in office is driven by a concern that the United States, should
Donald J. Trump win the November US election, will be less inclined to commit
to guaranteeing the kingdom’s security.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Even so, the Saudi ministry insisted that “the
Kingdom has communicated its firm position to the US administration that there
will be no diplomatic relations with Israel unless an independent Palestinian
state is recognised on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.”
The statement appeared to avoid stipulating the creation of the state as a
pre-condition.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">As a result, the ministry left open whether
recognition was required prior to establishment of the state or once the state
is created, and if before the establishment, whether it was the United States
or Israel or both that would have to recognise Israel.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The lack of clarity is significant given that the
US </span><a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/31/palestine-statehood-biden-israel-gaza-war" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">State Department</span></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">, </span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">in an apparent attempt to pressure Mr. Netanyahu
to soften his rejection of a Palestinian state and approach to the hostage
negotiations.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">In a signal that the US may move ahead with
elements of the package deal, Lockheed Martin this week subcontracted two Saudi
companies to locally produce parts of the United States’ Terminal High Altitude
Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile system. The deal makes Saudi Arabia
</span><a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/lockheed-martin-strikes-subcontractor-deals-in-saudi-arabia-for-local-thaad-parts-production/"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">the first country to produce parts of the system.</span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><a name="_Hlk136859387"><i><span style="font-family: "Aptos",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow
at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International
Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i></a><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-family: "Aptos",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Aptos; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span><span style="font-family: "Aptos",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Aptos; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.</span></i></a></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 105%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="line-height: 105%;"></span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"></span></div>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-70091507634047952152024-02-05T07:43:00.001+08:002024-02-05T07:43:32.504+08:00Qatar’s Gaza war mediation may be a double-edged sword.<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglxMKxuO6HsZS9ytaE2PIwJX83Mqvg8DaeDLOqsskqjnHVJkvjfxRmdfrXKgJM9ljCXrfwTbbPpBBMpoCOlh2FX696V2aWzVRW52HHHtoWlcOGpKGp_yMz29ro0Nyjy_18oVYGQlRuTyGqMK9BXbnjwd5clWiSuGINaXs5eBTRwMvN9-j-1XEfXM5hyN0/s1280/Qatar%20embattled.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglxMKxuO6HsZS9ytaE2PIwJX83Mqvg8DaeDLOqsskqjnHVJkvjfxRmdfrXKgJM9ljCXrfwTbbPpBBMpoCOlh2FX696V2aWzVRW52HHHtoWlcOGpKGp_yMz29ro0Nyjy_18oVYGQlRuTyGqMK9BXbnjwd5clWiSuGINaXs5eBTRwMvN9-j-1XEfXM5hyN0/s320/Qatar%20embattled.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">By James M. Dorsey</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
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<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">To watch a video version of
this story on YouTube please click</span></em><a href="https://youtu.be/i72EUE-21Uw" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> here.</span></em></a><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></u></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">An audio podcast is available
on </span></em></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/qatars-gaza-war-mediation-may-be-a-double-edged-sword" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud</span></em></a><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.</span></u></em><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Qatari mediation in the Gaza
war threatens to become a double-edged sword.</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Demonstrators
gathered this week at Qatari diplomatic missions in Washington, New York, and
Ottawa to express f</span><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.jns.org/dc-ny-ottawa-jews-urge-qatar-to-help-release-hostages-in-gaza/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">rustration with the Gulf
state’s failure to achieve an Israeli-Hamas agreement</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> on
a second round of prisoner exchanges.</span><div><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf93MUG9flWb4BZ-q7T6HkgQj8PvWxuTZmqrhIo_X7P2q66vRAFVS7wiOkyLXVQEfbyXJf2Y-FJP_1-x40dk1ruyfOva1NP0-P6pp9Yiv5EYSF6vJcona2ktQCJ1SCYALjiGMkH4YQTCSrds3NiWmK04GAlF86qchgJ9dZ03VbZwyAtvoohUxYqrqD28w/s624/Qatar%20Dc%20embassy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="624" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf93MUG9flWb4BZ-q7T6HkgQj8PvWxuTZmqrhIo_X7P2q66vRAFVS7wiOkyLXVQEfbyXJf2Y-FJP_1-x40dk1ruyfOva1NP0-P6pp9Yiv5EYSF6vJcona2ktQCJ1SCYALjiGMkH4YQTCSrds3NiWmK04GAlF86qchgJ9dZ03VbZwyAtvoohUxYqrqD28w/s320/Qatar%20Dc%20embassy.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="line-height: 107%;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: normal;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Norman Goldstein, uncle of Hersh
Goldberg-Polin, whom Hamas is holding hostage in Gaza, addresses about 50
people in front of the Qatari embassy in Washington, D.C. on Feb. 2, 2024.
Photo: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Andrew Bernard</span></i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Ron Halber, executive director
of the Jewish Community Relations Council of Greater Washington, told the
Washington gathering that the demonstrations were meant “to thank the Qataris
and at the same time to press them to push Hamas. Those two things are not in
conflict: You’ve done a good job, </span><a href="https://jewishinsider.com/2024/01/qatar-israel-u-s-jewish-groups-hamas-diplomacy-gaza-hostages/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">you really need to do more of a good job</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Earlier, Israeli protesters rallied
at Qatar’s Washington embassy, striking a far more strident tone. Their message
was </span><a href="https://jewishinsider.com/2024/01/qatar-is-hamas-second-rally-outside-embassy-sends-a-blunter-message/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">“Qatar is Hamas.”</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">The Israeli nationals held the
Gulf state responsible for Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel in which more than
1,100 people, mostly civilians, were killed and some 240 were taken hostage.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">“We are here today to call out
Qatar for what it really is: a terror supporting state seeking to destabilize
the Middle East region. We will not allow Qatar to wash its hands (of) its
responsibility (for) what happened on October 7,” said Nimrode Pantz, a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>lawyer and protest organiser.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Another speaker vowed that the
protesters would “hunt (Qatari diplomats) in every place you will be until we
see (the hostages) back.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">In November, Qatar negotiated
a week-long truce during which Hamas exchanged more than 100 hostages,
kidnapped during the October 7 attack.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Hamas still holds 136 hostages
and bodies of captives killed in the fighting in Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed
Abdulrahman al-Thani, together with the intelligence chiefs of the United
States, Israel, and Egypt have drafted a plan based on proposals by Hamas and
Israel, involving a pro-longed ceasefire and swap of all hostages and bodies
for an unspecified number of Palestinians in Israeli prisons.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1uMJy1SR8lYgLLgrWmkx8ICfiJXMnIgcz94Y00DVp13w9r5OwTMVzYEsPaMJrgbxgRCfmraRcjjJy77zdBaPDbdRz7FXj5JxFY7ddSM9dGLmbkkbIf-rhvBtNJ21J4xTEptSzZZQSsqkJlAsh_7xqcjCPfGb2fb6Dcxigm9OQMrhS5FXYtgNrpCtwwiQ/s1430/Mohd%20Abdulrahman%20al-Thani.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="953" data-original-width="1430" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1uMJy1SR8lYgLLgrWmkx8ICfiJXMnIgcz94Y00DVp13w9r5OwTMVzYEsPaMJrgbxgRCfmraRcjjJy77zdBaPDbdRz7FXj5JxFY7ddSM9dGLmbkkbIf-rhvBtNJ21J4xTEptSzZZQSsqkJlAsh_7xqcjCPfGb2fb6Dcxigm9OQMrhS5FXYtgNrpCtwwiQ/s320/Mohd%20Abdulrahman%20al-Thani.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Qatari foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed
bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. Photo: Vahid Salemi/AP</span></i><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">The main obstacle to an
agreement is that Hamas insists on a permanent ceasefire that would end the war
while Israel maintains that ending the war is non-negotiable. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">The parties also have yet to
agree on the staggered ratio of Palestinians to be released for each Hamas-held
hostage and the identity of the Palestinians to be freed.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Considering Hamas' main
bargaining chip is its hostages, the group might insist on keeping a few
hostages to make sure Israel abides by an agreement – a demand Israel is
certain to reject.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Alternatively, a Hamas official
suggested that the group may seek </span><a href="https://twitter.com/gershonbaskin/status/1752975691207835834"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">guarantees from the United States, Qatar, and Egypt</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"> that the ceasefire amounts to an end to the war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">“Our aim is to finish this as
soon as possible…to </span><a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/01/31/1228067573/qatar-prime-minister-negotiating-end-fighting-between-hamas-israel#:~:text=Jacquelyn%20Martin%2FAP-,Qatari%20Prime%20Minister%20Sheikh%20Mohammed%20bin%20Abdulrahman%20bin%20Jassim%20Al,about%20the%20Israel%2DHamas%20war.&text=It%20was%20a%20high%2Dstakes,bin%20Al%20Thani%20this%20week."><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">bring the hostages back, but to put a closure for the
war as well</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">,” Mr. Al-Thani told National
Public Radio.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">It’s going to take fancy
language to bridge the gap.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">The trick will be a formula
that allows both parties to claim they have achieved their irreconcilable goals.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">One formula may be a lengthy
ceasefire, potentially described as transitional rather than permanent. This
would allow Israel to maintain that the war will continue while Hamas could
claim the contrary.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Israeli Prime Minister
Binyamin Netanyahu has not made things easier by adopting a hardline in recent
days. He has not only rejected ending the war, but also the release of
“thousands of terrorists” and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza any
time soon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Mr. Netanyahu may sing a
different tone this weekend in talks with US Secretary of State Antony J.
Blinken, on his sixth visit to Israel since the war began, but any hostage swap
agreement will likely entail provisions that could prompt his far-right
coalition partners to </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/iran-facilitates-biden-s-support-for-israel-israel-makes-it-increasingly-difficult"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">withdraw from the government</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Mr. Netanyahu may hope that
Hamas will rescue him by rejecting anything less than an end to the war and the
release of thousands of Palestinians in Israeli prison in exchange for the
hostages.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">The </span><a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/31/palestine-statehood-biden-israel-gaza-war"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">State Department</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">
and </span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68137220#:~:text=Britain%20is%20ready%20to%20bring,peace%20in%20the%20Middle%20East."><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">British Foreign Secretary David Cameron</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">, in an apparent attempt to pressure Mr. Netanyahu to
soften his rejection of the creation of an independent Palestinian state and
approach to the hostage negotiations, are exploring possibilities of
recognising Palestine as a state.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkJJgXh0rPxj965aZ_gOBuHWKQmWnqrmUE6IVTA4Itw-v5C0WuBx6lNMuy-1oeuN5_2yDVfl0llqUUOsZe0nOmJ-hqTng46z07aQ2do0h0gK4uyUjVEvxTcNhM4lvHwqOz7bunlDHYFO804caRCwF0Fo3oRy0LlS8GvorNHAVnL-wk0w2Q86dV6ytrWec/s624/David%20Cameron.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="624" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkJJgXh0rPxj965aZ_gOBuHWKQmWnqrmUE6IVTA4Itw-v5C0WuBx6lNMuy-1oeuN5_2yDVfl0llqUUOsZe0nOmJ-hqTng46z07aQ2do0h0gK4uyUjVEvxTcNhM4lvHwqOz7bunlDHYFO804caRCwF0Fo3oRy0LlS8GvorNHAVnL-wk0w2Q86dV6ytrWec/s320/David%20Cameron.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Britain's
former prime minister and appointed Foreign Secretary David Cameron. Photo: REUTERS/
Suzanne Plunkett</span></i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">So far, the US and Britain
have recognised President Mahmoud Abbas’ West Bank-based Palestine Authority as
the entity governing the West Bank and official Palestinian interlocutor under
the 1993 Oslo accords between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organisation
(PLO).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">This week’s </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-unprecedented-executive-order-us-sanctions-settlers-behind-intolerable-violence/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">US sanctioning of four vigilante Israeli West Bank
settlers</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"> sent a similar message.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Even though small in number,
the demonstrations in the US and Canada echo Mr. Netanyahu’s recent criticism of
Qatar.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">"</span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/international-court-ruling-likely-to-shape-israel-hamas-prisoner-exchange-talks"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">You don't hear me thanking Qatar</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">... It is essentially no different from the UN or Red
Cross, and in a certain sense is even more problematic – I have no illusions
about them… They have leverage over (Hamas). Why do they have leverage? Because
they finance them,” Mr. Netanyahu told hostage families earlier this month,
ignoring that </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinians/2019-02-10/ty-article/.premium/with-israels-consent-qatar-gave-gaza-1-billion-since-2012/0000017f-db44-df9c-a17f-ff5cd6670000" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Qatari funding of Hamas in
Gaza</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"> was at his behest.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">“Qatar hosts the heads of
Hamas; it also funds Hamas; it has leverage on Hamas…They placed themselves as
mediators – so start proving it and bring back our hostages,” Mr. Netanyahu said
in a subsequent news conference.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This week,
the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), founded by Yigal Carmon, a
former advisor to Israel’s West Bank and Gaza occupation authority and Prime
Ministers Yitzhak Shamir and Yitzhak Rabin, sought to bolster Mr. Netanyahu’s
argument. MEMRI reported that </span><a href="https://www.memri.org/reports/officers-hamas-security-apparatuses-trained-qatar"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Qatar regularly trained Hamas’ police
force.</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">In response, Qatar’s Foreign
Ministry </span><a href="https://twitter.com/majedalansari/status/1750235341053641174"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">accused Mr. Netanyahu of “undermining the mediation
process</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"> for reasons that appear to
serve his political career instead of prioritizing saving the lives of
innocents, including Israeli hostages.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="pb-2">Echoing Mr. Netanyahu’s criticism and American Jewish leaders'
frustration, Democrats and Republicans in the US Congress have asked the Biden
administration to pressure Qatar. <a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/catching-flack-qatar-s-gaza-mediation-is-a-balancing-act"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">The lawmakers
also called for Hamas’ expulsion from Qatar.</span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">The United States agreed with
Qatar in October to </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/10/26/qatar-hamas-hostage-negotiations/" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">revisit the Gulf state’s
relationship with Hamas</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"> once
all hostages have been released.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Officials of both countries
left open whether the review would lead to the expulsion of Hamas
representatives or to restrictions on their ability to operate from the Gulf
state.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">What the review will entail is
likely to depend on whether and in what state Hamas survives the Gaza war. A
Hamas survival could mean that the United States, and for that matter Israel,
will have a continued need for a backchannel.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Nevertheless, the criticism
threatens to put a dent in Qatari relations with the American Jewish community,
a pillar of its largely successful soft power strategy in the United States.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Hamas has maintained a
presence in Qatar since 2012 </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/catching-flack-qatar-s-gaza-mediation-is-a-balancing-act"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">at the request of the United States</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"> and with Israel’s acquiescence.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Qatar and the administration
have pushed back at the criticism.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">"I've been hearing this a
lot about the leverage and the pressure. Qatar needs to be understood clearly
in this context. Our role as a mediator is to try to bring the parties to
bridge the gaps between them," Mr. Al Thani said in an on-stage interview
at the Atlantic Council, a Washington thinktank.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">"Beyond this leverage, </span><a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/qatars-prime-minister-sees-progress-on-israel-hamas-hostage-negotiations-but-warns-regional-tensions-are-boiling-up/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">we don't see that Qatar is a superpower that can impose
something</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"> on this party or another
party to bring them to that place. Basically, were using our good offices to
connect, to bridge gaps, to put solutions and come up with some
alternatives," he added.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Roger Carstens, US President
Joe Biden's top hostage envoy, told the Hostages' Families Forum and the
American Jewish Committee that Qatar is "doing everything we're asking.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdOB6MPCFGmBW6LxtlEczsi9qwygABPFVCnfBeGNgVwlxdHNmHWIrdBuTOYhqecqFUHlj88hOrqmC1XamrbA93UIF6SA3QudXGF3T23ml8mClBiavKI6eVB6z7EZzPByrW7PRW9zVLSyVZOdqlVokb4X5krom9NNNJCXNzatLUbGjZwC-Y0NT7w7S1DEk/s624/Roger%20Carstens.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="624" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdOB6MPCFGmBW6LxtlEczsi9qwygABPFVCnfBeGNgVwlxdHNmHWIrdBuTOYhqecqFUHlj88hOrqmC1XamrbA93UIF6SA3QudXGF3T23ml8mClBiavKI6eVB6z7EZzPByrW7PRW9zVLSyVZOdqlVokb4X5krom9NNNJCXNzatLUbGjZwC-Y0NT7w7S1DEk/s320/Roger%20Carstens.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Roger Carstens, special presidential envoy
for hostage affairs, at the State Department in February. Photo: Eric Kayne for
Yahoo News</span></i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Members of the Forum met last
week with Mr. Al-Thani to thank him for his efforts.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Even so, Emily Moatti, a
member of the Forum’s diplomatic team and a former Israeli parliament member,
suggested the families were </span><a href="https://jewishinsider.com/2024/01/qatar-israel-u-s-jewish-groups-hamas-diplomacy-gaza-hostages/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">holding their nose while working with Qatar</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">The Forum “thinks that the
only way hostages will be released is through negotiations, and as unfortunate
as it may be – we would prefer Egypt – Qatar is totally a partner in this,” Ms.
Moatti said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">In a twist of irony, </span><a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-influence/2024/01/31/advisers-to-families-of-hostages-held-in-gaza-backed-by-qatari-funding-00138925#:~:text=%E2%80%94%20The%20Richardson%20Center%20said%20the,was%20%24250%2C000%20in%20early%202023."><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">a Qatar-funded consultant, Jay Footlik, helped the
families get meetings</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"> with Mr.
Al-Thani and other Qatari officials and coached them on how to approach those
encounters. Qatar pays Mr. Footlik’s, consultancy, ThirdCircle Inc., US$40,000
a month.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk136859387"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct
Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i></a><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Turbulent World with James M.
Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span></p><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"></span></div></span></div>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-61037387826620375902024-02-01T01:40:00.008+08:002024-02-01T01:40:56.783+08:00Iran facilitates Biden’s support for Israel. Israel makes it increasingly difficult.<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4iLNbIZhuLuRAnwNSucpUvqcTvtHrnkWWG-7wN1c7JNhGMRx78z_HabFVcpMPySCcPzL3HY5xJkExJe1f6vt5tG-OGt7jC9Zn8pkLWJ6ZDTy4ZXIrXHGoZIFjrYs2eSGw-DgW84DmdXsGr_jV2VpVOEQPxPiEaNwlPQ2KK7uatBzMf1n7bC5TKFntXzg/s1280/Biden%20Israel%20Iran.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4iLNbIZhuLuRAnwNSucpUvqcTvtHrnkWWG-7wN1c7JNhGMRx78z_HabFVcpMPySCcPzL3HY5xJkExJe1f6vt5tG-OGt7jC9Zn8pkLWJ6ZDTy4ZXIrXHGoZIFjrYs2eSGw-DgW84DmdXsGr_jV2VpVOEQPxPiEaNwlPQ2KK7uatBzMf1n7bC5TKFntXzg/s320/Biden%20Israel%20Iran.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="background: white;"></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">By James M. Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
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<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To watch a video version of
this story on YouTube please click</span></em><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://youtu.be/F22g_yuvHmU" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> here.</span></em></a></span><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></u></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An audio podcast is available
on </span></em></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/iran-facilitates-bidens-support-for-israel" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud.</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">The irony of Middle Eastern geopolitics is that Israel
makes it increasingly difficult for US President Joe Biden to support it, while
Iran strengthens domestic US anti-Iranian and pro-Israeli hardliners.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnATv1n7IPIIDXQaz9KWeZAXZuwauBEXvu8t9NLu1BF-OvuVBmXfIZlYjX1mJT8_ZNWPPdzdXKqkOGI9jVyF492J6VIReBDPySdVe5oopXncqi7vRztMke-C0Ca9Ku5Hhl5UDWJW2UZAq5RvWgWfKpzAJST_sITWspJyZ1ccRgqvSLfYvfNwZBfDCKQug/s624/Biden.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnATv1n7IPIIDXQaz9KWeZAXZuwauBEXvu8t9NLu1BF-OvuVBmXfIZlYjX1mJT8_ZNWPPdzdXKqkOGI9jVyF492J6VIReBDPySdVe5oopXncqi7vRztMke-C0Ca9Ku5Hhl5UDWJW2UZAq5RvWgWfKpzAJST_sITWspJyZ1ccRgqvSLfYvfNwZBfDCKQug/s320/Biden.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; line-height: 15pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><i><span lang="EN-PH" style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-PH; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-PH; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">US President Joe Biden
at the United Auto Workers conference in Washington, DC, on Wednesday, January
24, 2024. Photo: Ting Shen/Bloomberg/Getty Images<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">The hardliners are emboldened by the failure of calibrated
US strikes in response to numerous attacks on US forces in the Middle East and
on shipping in the Red Sea to deter Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq,
Syria, and Yemen.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The deaths this week of three American soldiers in an </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-says-three-us-service-members-killed-drone-attack-us-forces-jordan-2024-01-28/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">attack on a US military base
on the Jordanian-Syrian border</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> by an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia alliance
potentially mark a watershed that could send regional tensions spinning out of
control.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">American anti-Iranian hardliners and pro-Israeli forces
pressure Mr. Biden to strike back hard, possibly by targeting Iran directly.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Iran may not direct or plan the attacks but likely can
persuade its non-state allies, who justify their attacks with the Israeli
assault on Gaza, to step back. Iran and its non-state partners have publicly
affirmed that various militias benefit from Iranian funding, weapon supplies,
and training.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Iran would like to keep the Middle East at a boiling
point without tensions expanding Gaza into a regional war. Iran benefits from
Gaza fuelling popular anti-Americanism in the Middle East</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">So far, rather than use its leverage, Iran cloaks
itself in the mantle of plausible deniability. Iran insists that its allied
militias independently decide whether to attack US facilities.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In a surprise move, Kata’ib Hezbollah, a constituent
member of The Islamic Resistance if Iraq, the alliance that said it attacked
the US base in Jordan, announced this week that it had </span><a href="https://www.memri.org/jttm/iran-backed-hizbullah-brigades-iraq-announce-suspension-all-operations-against-us-forces-denies"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">suspended attacking US targets</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA9rrHVIU_DCBgqkbCNqVTYZO8soi7l-DswQ6M2bjPYQKn2bOwVnffI2nS1615vDom66gl7xsGOUilF8M3FmeAsP4qPhyphenhyphenBx6ApJrE-q2z1HkaT_nIovF_F8DxEKzD2yHSGXpkJBBkcTIm03YrGdfobgs6Nu4sdJEU_fkNv3uv9UpuUSiayB3LeiiNY4Ec/s1226/Kataib%20Hezbollah.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="964" data-original-width="1226" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA9rrHVIU_DCBgqkbCNqVTYZO8soi7l-DswQ6M2bjPYQKn2bOwVnffI2nS1615vDom66gl7xsGOUilF8M3FmeAsP4qPhyphenhyphenBx6ApJrE-q2z1HkaT_nIovF_F8DxEKzD2yHSGXpkJBBkcTIm03YrGdfobgs6Nu4sdJEU_fkNv3uv9UpuUSiayB3LeiiNY4Ec/s320/Kataib%20Hezbollah.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Statement of Iran-Backed Kata’ib Hezbollah Brigades In Iraq Announcing
suspension of all Operations Against U.S. Forces. <o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Denying that Iran was involved in the group’s
decision-making, Kata’ib Hezbollah said the suspension was intended to avoid
putting the Iraqi government in a difficult spot.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The group likely does not want to complicate </span><a href="https://www.kataibhezbollah.me/news/3355"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">negotiations with the United States over a US troop
withdrawal</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> from
Iraq.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">“We recommend to the brave Mujahideen of the free Hezbollah
Brigades to commit to passive defense temporarily. If any hostile American
action occurs towards them, then may Allah decide,” the group’s leader, Abu
Hussein al-Muhammadawi, said in a statement on the group’s website.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiSxQR49A8rXCTpQz0PckrC0d4jFRy2_rVbbeQjNPG8Z0gzOzLdfkFCDnxD9lPDblUaxRuPDSL3OPsR_1QqGZdOqlHQD7LcKVjHsHWwflUSccD1RLdQVxNhSMGnQ9-I6xOmgkmZouaLDOysHj811Jyptn-R-hhyaxwVB5pnKp8gBgTsm6it8E5LLa6II0/s616/Al-Mohamadiw.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="616" data-original-width="608" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiSxQR49A8rXCTpQz0PckrC0d4jFRy2_rVbbeQjNPG8Z0gzOzLdfkFCDnxD9lPDblUaxRuPDSL3OPsR_1QqGZdOqlHQD7LcKVjHsHWwflUSccD1RLdQVxNhSMGnQ9-I6xOmgkmZouaLDOysHj811Jyptn-R-hhyaxwVB5pnKp8gBgTsm6it8E5LLa6II0/s320/Al-Mohamadiw.jpg" width="316" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Ahmed
Mohsen Faraj Al-Muhammadawi (</span></i><i><span style="background: #F9F9F9; color: #1c1c1c; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Abu Hussein|)</span></i><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">, Secretary-General of the Hezbollah
Brigades. Photo: Twitter/@ahm_ks90<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Mr. Muhammadawi’s statement came on the heels of a message
sent to the Iraqi government, warning that </span><a href="https://amwaj.media/article/deep-dive-why-a-us-withdrawal-from-iraq-is-off-the-table"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">the United States would have
an “appropriate response”</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">
to groups that attack its forces in Iraq and Syria.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mr. Muhammadawi’s predecessor, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis,
was killed in 2020 in a US strike in Bagdad that targeted Qassim Suleimani, the
head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Al-Quds force that manages Iran’s
ties to non-state militias in the Middle East.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTxF7aCs2Hbbs1TX1IS7CiVnivDRRMjo8nYcyE87E1Bmxm-uRWK1Oy8kYiMc1TbG5gYcnc9BsvH_xjRPX-6xICGo1Ve7MpyQ2RV10igv-_GP9UqFiOscXlIs3tKTQt0iIwK46NHgfwaNNXEtMAqF4DErnpF8rQBYzLDgUqmZm5kT2AIlNGPqTlFJ_CIwY/s1950/Al-Muhandis.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1217" data-original-width="1950" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTxF7aCs2Hbbs1TX1IS7CiVnivDRRMjo8nYcyE87E1Bmxm-uRWK1Oy8kYiMc1TbG5gYcnc9BsvH_xjRPX-6xICGo1Ve7MpyQ2RV10igv-_GP9UqFiOscXlIs3tKTQt0iIwK46NHgfwaNNXEtMAqF4DErnpF8rQBYzLDgUqmZm5kT2AIlNGPqTlFJ_CIwY/s320/Al-Muhandis.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Abu
Mahdi al-Muhandis, the number two of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi, in a press
conference during a visit to Basra, January 23, 2018. Photo: HAIDAR MOHAMMED
ALI / AFP<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Iran has more than one reason to tread carefully. With
Russian troops in Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned his Syrian
counterpart, Bashar al-Assad, that he does not want to see Syria embroiled in a
regional conflagration.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Similarly, China has advised Iran to avoid the risk of a
broader Middle East war.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“The Iranian regime has been emboldened by the crisis
and seems ready to </span><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/cia-spycraft-and-statecraft-william-burns"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">fight to its
last regional proxy</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">,”
said CIA director William J. Burns.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mounting anti-Iranian sentiment in the United States benefits
Israel.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Like, Iran Mr. Biden struggles to contain conflict in
the Middle East, while maintaining support for Israel.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The president’s problem is that Israeli Prime Minister
Binyamin Netanyahu makes it increasingly difficult for the president to back
Israel unconditionally, not only because of Israel’s conduct in Gaza and the
West Bank but also due to the extremism of his coalition partners and Likud
Party members.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken is scheduled to
visit Jerusalem this week, his sixth visit since the war started, to persuade
Israel to change its brutal Gaza and West Bank tactics, help deescalate
regional tensions, and plan for a transition in Gaza towards restored
Palestinian rule.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjk43LEOprTquV0GbMcyk8KL91hO7HgXAMxIkLm_Qcx1oydlx47OUdCCInVkWZZkVzRZO7dhF6xWw1TK0OO0jsg7RcfL9Rn2azK2BnUVKCvj2O0JG6AaW2IS_R5VCERBVScY0MImcYT9G3JUpzI6rA15oqIlT8OWbN-BnVpah2nL7ZUr5NeGK4rJJJW0JU/s624/Blinken-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="417" data-original-width="624" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjk43LEOprTquV0GbMcyk8KL91hO7HgXAMxIkLm_Qcx1oydlx47OUdCCInVkWZZkVzRZO7dhF6xWw1TK0OO0jsg7RcfL9Rn2azK2BnUVKCvj2O0JG6AaW2IS_R5VCERBVScY0MImcYT9G3JUpzI6rA15oqIlT8OWbN-BnVpah2nL7ZUr5NeGK4rJJJW0JU/s320/Blinken-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the State Department. Photo: Alex Brandon, AP</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Mr. Netanyahu is unlikely to be very cooperative.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">This week, he was </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-vows-israel-wont-free-thousands-of-terrorists-amid-hostage-deal-push/"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">quick to pour
cold water on optimism</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">
that further Hamas-Israeli prisoner swaps were in the offing. Mr. Netanyahu
rejected a permanent ceasefire, insisted that Israeli troops would remain in
Gaza, and vowed not to release “thousands of terrorists” in exchange for the
Hamas-held hostages.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">An Israeli Channel 12 opinion poll suggested that </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/almost-4-in-10-israelis-back-a-revival-of-jewish-settlements-in-gaza-poll-finds/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">50 per cent of Israelis
supported Mr. Netanyahu’s rejection</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">A plan crafted this weekend by Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed
bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Mr. Burns, and the Israeli and Egyptian intelligence
chiefs envisions a prolonged ceasefire and Hamas-Israel prisoner exchanges. Mr.
Al-Thani discussed the plan in Washington a day later with Mr. Blinken.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The plan is reportedly a fusion of an original Qatari
and Egyptian plan and an Israeli counter proposal.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The deal involves an </span><a href="file:///C:/Users/jmdor/Documents/Blog/Iran%20facilitates%20Biden%E2%80%99s%20support%20for%20Israel.%20Israel%20makes%20it%20increasingly%20difficult"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">initial 45-day ceasefire</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> during which up to 40 women,
elderly and ill Hamas-held hostages kidnapped during the group’s October 7
attack on Israel would be exchanged for 4,000 Palestinians incarcerated in
Israel.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">A second and third phase to be negotiated towards the
end of the 45-day truce would see swaps of first Israeli women soldiers and
then male military personnel and the remains of hostages killed in captivity
for an unspecified number of Palestinians in Israeli prisons.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Hamas holds 136 hostages and bodies captive. In November, the group freed more than 100 hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3NWEXGl3-FVX2DQeK37fX2it3ilA0Z2aL_-Z1AFbSd1H_le7tfspLsAJtIeh1r2Q5JvG9A-7hz9jk4zFR4YYjDsfSt5n25pQVxRwDzV8miHUBuaXBPQAbq_Aau4lBw93pWBhm8Itv685MsjospFtbDJ_GHd_nDHHFYPyoipukNnIDGDLp3vxNPRCdLlo/s1430/Hostages.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="954" data-original-width="1430" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3NWEXGl3-FVX2DQeK37fX2it3ilA0Z2aL_-Z1AFbSd1H_le7tfspLsAJtIeh1r2Q5JvG9A-7hz9jk4zFR4YYjDsfSt5n25pQVxRwDzV8miHUBuaXBPQAbq_Aau4lBw93pWBhm8Itv685MsjospFtbDJ_GHd_nDHHFYPyoipukNnIDGDLp3vxNPRCdLlo/s320/Hostages.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Israelis
held hostage since October 7 are transferred by Hamas and Islamic Jihad
terrorists to the Red Cross in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, on November
28, 2023. Photo: AFP<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mr. Netanyahu, speaking out of both sides of his mouth,
rejected key elements of the plan at a religious seminary in a West Bank
settlement. His remarks appeared designed to pacify Israel’s far-right who
populate his cabinet.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Netanyahu spoke as Ismail Haniyeh, the head of
Hamas’ political bureau, </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/30/hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-discuss-gaza-ceasefire-proposal-cairo-israel-palestine"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">winged his way to Cairo</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> to discuss the latest
proposal with Egyptian spy chief General Abbas Kamel.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Before leaving for Cairo, Mr. Haniyeh said Hamas “is
open to discussing any serious and practical initiatives or ideas, </span><a href="https://twitter.com/gershonbaskin/status/1752324153061867604"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">provided that they lead to a
comprehensive cessation of aggression</span></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">.”</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Stressing that “a permanent ceasefire is our goal,”
Hamas political bureau member Mohammad Nazzal told Al Jazeera that “we can do the
permanent ceasefire in the second stage, the third stage” of a prisoner
exchange agreement. He warned that “otherwise the battle and the war between us
and the Israeli forces will continue.”</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQEWsDOk33l-LbhsAFqQnY9NDKqJnnzG-3ThBnfyqZnkuf0LSfhH3wE8LDPJVQSCFHd-UqNqx0gw4ZQW8D0smiEfy-QAt40cF3gOFVfQgolVEGtTDET62OMWJ6zodJZXzIl-LRh2OeJurP7LgWERLqBdTE_6PbacdqPEJxnpGKi_35FcNG1jNlAUAXU9c/s624/Mohammad%20Nazzal.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="624" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQEWsDOk33l-LbhsAFqQnY9NDKqJnnzG-3ThBnfyqZnkuf0LSfhH3wE8LDPJVQSCFHd-UqNqx0gw4ZQW8D0smiEfy-QAt40cF3gOFVfQgolVEGtTDET62OMWJ6zodJZXzIl-LRh2OeJurP7LgWERLqBdTE_6PbacdqPEJxnpGKi_35FcNG1jNlAUAXU9c/s320/Mohammad%20Nazzal.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Hamas
member Mohammad Nazzal speaks at a press conference in Beirut [Al Jazeera]<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">The trick in bridging the gap between Hamas and Israel is a formula that
would allow both parties to claim they had achieved their irreconcilable goals,
a permanent ceasefire vs a continuation of the war.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">One formula under consideration is a lengthy ceasefire
with no formal end to the war. This would allow Hamas to bet on Israel not
getting Western support for a revival of hostilities.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Some diplomats suggest that describing the ceasefire as
‘transitional’ could make it easier for Hamas to back down from its insistence
on a permanent ceasefire and withdrawal of Israeli forces.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Even so, it’s a formula that Hamas’ Gaza-based
leadership, as opposed to the group’s exile leaders, is likely to reject.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Gazan Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar tops Israel’s most
wanted list. He is widely viewed as a hardliner, whose term is slated to end
under the group’s term limits if Hamas were to move ahead with elections
scheduled for later this year. Mr. Haniyeh, the hostage negotiator and Mr.
Sinwar’s predecessor, is widely viewed as a frontrunner in an election.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Senior Israeli military figures argue that Israel needs
to translate its on-the ground achievements in Gaza diplomatically to </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-01-30/ty-article/.premium/despite-american-and-qatari-optimism-israel-hamas-deal-remains-elusive/0000018d-56f0-d997-adff-dffa95590000"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">prevent Hamas from filling the
vacuum in Gaza</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Like elsewhere in Gaza, </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/30/hamas-returns-northern-gaza-new-offensive"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Hamas’ ability to rebuild a system of governance
and law and order</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">, was evident in
Gaza’s Shaila refugee camp to which the group returned as soon as Israeli
troops left.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mr. Netanyahu made his remarks as not only as Hamas but
also Israel’s far right asserted itself.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Hours earlier, far-right National Security Minister
Itamar Ben Gvir tweeted, </span><a href="https://twitter.com/itamarbengvir/status/1752278205216481567"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">“Reckless deal =
dissolution of the government.”</span></a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6Eb5Ka8P0AyQbzxMTwp0K5HzhCnsq1rfNjSyzYAuaoAYSPTnbEmtt2TXXp5Aiy46_5jAgYCncJCM-4Pc4IIdLqMI04nQdw5mRvacJYbM32Qx6L3iTkGFxfkoW1mHglRfkVqrkpGqOVbeedYTMsu0F3MSbJZO5T_TrZnYxW5RdJIsm7vIfdEoGenKtbXo/s468/Itama%20Ben%20Gvir.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="312" data-original-width="468" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6Eb5Ka8P0AyQbzxMTwp0K5HzhCnsq1rfNjSyzYAuaoAYSPTnbEmtt2TXXp5Aiy46_5jAgYCncJCM-4Pc4IIdLqMI04nQdw5mRvacJYbM32Qx6L3iTkGFxfkoW1mHglRfkVqrkpGqOVbeedYTMsu0F3MSbJZO5T_TrZnYxW5RdJIsm7vIfdEoGenKtbXo/s320/Itama%20Ben%20Gvir.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Israeli Minister of
National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir attends a meeting at the Knesset (parliament)
in Jerusalem. Photo: Gil Cohen-Magen/AFP via Getty Image<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">The far-right, including 12 of Mr. Netanyahu’s
ministers, and 15 coalition lawmakers, gathered in Jerusalem last weekend in
what a Haaretz newspaper headline called, “</span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-01-29/ty-article/.premium/an-orgy-of-jewish-supremacy-and-antidemocratic-euphoria-encouraged-by-netanyahu/0000018d-556b-d0fc-a9bd-5f7f8b540000?utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=Content&utm_campaign=haaretz-today&utm_content=66b6a043a2"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">An Orgy of Jewish Supremacy
and Antidemocratic Euphoria, Encouraged by Netanyahu.</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">”</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">The conference called for Israeli reoccupation of Gaza,
expulsion of Palestinians, and Israeli settlement of the Strip. The Channel 12
opinion poll suggested that 38 per cent of Israelis favour Jewish resettlement
of Gaza.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">White House National Security Council spokesman John
Kirby described statements by Israeli ministers at the conference as </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLXwptT0_IA"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">“irresponsible, reckless, incendiary</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">… We have made clear that
there can be no reduction in Gazan territory.”</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj11y1D2hw_iy_1g5ErwLmYi21g7Nxj02ht1lqv0wQCW1Ucrq1SBJcQ4pv9DPaZziAWA4Hz4mpP34c8Qc3hAkCrtvl7h281mubjCFmlK97DTxaha0WulEbAm1PQ9xEHVwAbOmt38B27kT8HP8siYDtw-bxkz79XVoiyBNfWxCi7c0eIOaeXw6AZN1dVu6w/s468/John%20Kirby-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="312" data-original-width="468" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj11y1D2hw_iy_1g5ErwLmYi21g7Nxj02ht1lqv0wQCW1Ucrq1SBJcQ4pv9DPaZziAWA4Hz4mpP34c8Qc3hAkCrtvl7h281mubjCFmlK97DTxaha0WulEbAm1PQ9xEHVwAbOmt38B27kT8HP8siYDtw-bxkz79XVoiyBNfWxCi7c0eIOaeXw6AZN1dVu6w/s320/John%20Kirby-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Pentagon spokesman John Kirby speaks during a media briefing at the
Pentagon, Thursday, May 19, 2022, in Washington. Photo: AP/Alex Brandon<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">Tellingly, Mr. Netanyahu denounced protests by
relatives of the more than 100 Hamas-held hostages as aiding the militant
Palestinian group but remained silent about the far-right gathering. The
families demand that the government prioritise the release of the hostages,
even if that requires an end to the war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Mr. Netanyahu’s domestic difficulties, enhanced by the
Channel 12 opinion poll suggesting he and his far-right coalition partners
would lose a next election, have fuelled speculation that the prime minister
has no interest in a prisoner deal, let alone in ending the war.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“What you saw Sunday wasn't ‘Startup Nation’ Israel. It
wasn't ‘13 Nobel Prizes’ Israel. It wasn't ‘Weizmann Institute of Science’
Israel, nor ‘Iron Dome technology. Israel. It was not liberal-democratic
Israel. What you saw was </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-01-29/ty-article/.premium/an-orgy-of-jewish-supremacy-and-antidemocratic-euphoria-encouraged-by-netanyahu/0000018d-556b-d0fc-a9bd-5f7f8b540000"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-ligatures: none;">messianic ecstasy and
religious fervor in a position of power</span></a><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">,” said Israeli journalist Alon Pinkas, addressing Mr.
Biden directly.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">“What you saw was not just the far-right elements in
Netanyahu's government trying to make a point by demonstrating that they
completely control him politically. This is him. Unadulterated, unhinged
Netanyahu,” Mr. Pinkas added.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The
Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a></p><p style="background: white;"><br /></p><p style="background: white;"><br /></p>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-53152598574933815172024-01-29T13:27:00.005+08:002024-01-29T13:27:52.564+08:00UNRWA pronounced guilty until proven innocent. Palestinians pay the price.<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqpR6d_F5JWMNwCRwib1JDE9rc6GyTW3o5hyphenhyphenpZqtW0987gWrl0g0EP-cWWSDDuritxXMfZIt_KjQOM_6P-tsUbi_Z4Tyofls5MorQXTrIzNCh_xs7Ok77cEMgM508w6Jc1308_hQMUzrquLziWHAVx3L4SPbubrYHP3JzKJLLousDDAt6k7q4Cd218MbE/s1280/UNWRA_artcardjpg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqpR6d_F5JWMNwCRwib1JDE9rc6GyTW3o5hyphenhyphenpZqtW0987gWrl0g0EP-cWWSDDuritxXMfZIt_KjQOM_6P-tsUbi_Z4Tyofls5MorQXTrIzNCh_xs7Ok77cEMgM508w6Jc1308_hQMUzrquLziWHAVx3L4SPbubrYHP3JzKJLLousDDAt6k7q4Cd218MbE/s320/UNWRA_artcardjpg.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By James M.
Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
the support of its readers. If you believe that the column and podcast add
value to your understanding and that of the broader public, please consider
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subscription options. Thank you.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To watch a video version of
this story on YouTube please click</span></em><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://youtu.be/jefIyA42fIw" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> here.</span></em></a></span><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></u></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An audio podcast is available
on </span></em></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/unrwa-pronounced-guilty-until-proven-innocent-palestinians-pay-the-price" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud</span></em></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.</span></u></em></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The timing
of US and Israeli allegations that United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)
staff participated in Hamas’ October 7 attack on the Jewish state was hardly
coincidental.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
allegations, that have yet to be substantiated, and the </span><a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Israel-Hamas-war/Six-more-countries-pause-funding-for-U.N.-Palestinian-agency"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">halt in UNRWA funding by ten Western
countries</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, including
the United States, Britain, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Australia, raise
questions that go far beyond UNRWA’s potential culpability. The nine countries’
move freezes US$667 million pledged to UNRWA.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjk5hd3YA-2kt-IkaUY9Fyo1On7ezfdSE6lq33Y5n_Ll8kzhd5krvL_vZy6_8RPzSeyPtbokPkDQY1iSqb0vv_lQoYl2r0DeYcXMgk_1dFzCyJRjrTgwDsc9aMniM9CRHRSmk39OVdLxU808kgtZ6TSos5rVjy10CVhqpR_g6z08nqE7yPYahtrK_yyTIk/s624/UNRWA.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjk5hd3YA-2kt-IkaUY9Fyo1On7ezfdSE6lq33Y5n_Ll8kzhd5krvL_vZy6_8RPzSeyPtbokPkDQY1iSqb0vv_lQoYl2r0DeYcXMgk_1dFzCyJRjrTgwDsc9aMniM9CRHRSmk39OVdLxU808kgtZ6TSos5rVjy10CVhqpR_g6z08nqE7yPYahtrK_yyTIk/s320/UNRWA.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">UNRWA workers pack the
medical aid and prepare it for distribution to hospitals at a warehouse in Deir
Al-Balah, Gaza. Photo: Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gaza’s third
largest employer, UNRWA is the leading UN aid agency in the Strip. UNRWA, the
only UN arm focused exclusively on one group of refugees, has a staff of
13,000, including 3,000, who have reported to work during the Gaza war. More
than 130 UNRWA staffers have been killed in the war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The US and Israel’s
allegations came barely 24 hours after the </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRsprNTNiNM"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">International Court of Justice (ICJ)</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> warned that Israel’s conduct in the
Gaza war risked acts of genocide.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4VvTa2VyK6bSR-pIgoHIWgZ1CBCz8_WZQOroaN4_QVzHb6jMQHs4vgxg-BC1-v3dYjhJu2TsR063PHdNaEoYtyI01dt08isCtVIFWzzvrLGcZ9ym4dbfwEshIPCXgVrd3EmRPP3KAbx9lw4GsHd7ZJyDo_UnOd5hkD3liBn6oqzXHexWSbCn7ttq59jk/s1430/ICJ.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="953" data-original-width="1430" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4VvTa2VyK6bSR-pIgoHIWgZ1CBCz8_WZQOroaN4_QVzHb6jMQHs4vgxg-BC1-v3dYjhJu2TsR063PHdNaEoYtyI01dt08isCtVIFWzzvrLGcZ9ym4dbfwEshIPCXgVrd3EmRPP3KAbx9lw4GsHd7ZJyDo_UnOd5hkD3liBn6oqzXHexWSbCn7ttq59jk/s320/ICJ.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Judges and parties sit
during a hearing at the International Court of Justice in The Hague,
Netherlands, January 12, 2024. (AP Photo/Patrick Post)<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The court
ordered Israel to “take immediate and effective measures to enable the
provision of urgently needed basic services and humanitarian assistance to
address the adverse conditions of life faced by Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Western
funding freeze threatens to aggravate an already dire human apocalypse in Gaza.
It violates the principles of due process that would give UNRWA an opportunity
to defend itself and address legitimate complaints.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Due process
would have also allowed the US and others to adopt positions less at odds with
the court ruling and more independent of Israeli policy.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Not all
Western countries followed the US lead. Norway and Ireland have opted for a
more balanced approach.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“We need to </span><a href="https://twitter.com/NorwayPalestine/status/1751284913070846409"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">distinguish between what individuals
may have done, and what UNRWA stands for</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. The organisation's tens of thousands of employees in Gaza,
the West Bank and the region are playing a crucial role in distributing aid,
saving lives, and safeguarding basic needs and rights,” said Norway’s
representative to President Mahmoud Abbas’ West Bank-based, internationally
recognised Palestine Authority.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“Don’t
punish the children of Gaza. This is totally reckless. None of us can guarantee
that staff are not doing something that is criminal. We have to punish the
sinners and not collectively the population of Gaza,” added Jan Egeland,
secretary general of the Norwegian Refugee Council.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0PW_4F8qR50blq86zeEsVpHgpkN6daqsmCKTBtfVbmqCEk6lKc05tuJpvn7x9DNisbm7goYbxetZodtfmqS8wdv_l7O_h88WWqwbu2dTK1fY6u2esyWszZie95cRpckbKYG43-VyZkIIhA1GCHtwg69OGc73h4zNNYyMXyicVcdoYBeX7-6H4D8jvRSU/s624/Jan%20Egeland.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="409" data-original-width="624" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0PW_4F8qR50blq86zeEsVpHgpkN6daqsmCKTBtfVbmqCEk6lKc05tuJpvn7x9DNisbm7goYbxetZodtfmqS8wdv_l7O_h88WWqwbu2dTK1fY6u2esyWszZie95cRpckbKYG43-VyZkIIhA1GCHtwg69OGc73h4zNNYyMXyicVcdoYBeX7-6H4D8jvRSU/s320/Jan%20Egeland.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Jan Egeland, Secretary
General of the Norwegian Refugee Council. Photo: Sheena Ariyapala/DFID<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">With UNWRA’s
future in doubt, the organisation’s former spokesman, Christopher Gunness,
warned that </span><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2024/01/28/exp-chris-gunness-guest-seg-012804aseg2-cnni-world.cnn"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">wealthy Gulf states’ failure to step
in would come to haunt them</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Countries
like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are seemingly hesitant to fund
an organisation accused of links to Hamas. The two countries would like to see
Hamas defeated because of its links to the Muslim Brotherhood and violence,
even if they condemn Israel’s devastating military tactics.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“</span><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2024/01/28/exp-chris-gunness-guest-seg-012804aseg2-cnni-world.cnn"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Where is the Arab world?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">... This is a Middle Eastern problem.
The Palestinian refugee problem is in the neighbourhood, in the backyard. These
Arab states got billions and billions in oil money. Why can’t they step up to
the plate and give UNWRA the funds it needs to deal with what is effectively a
problem which is destabilizing their region… What these Arab donors need to
realise is that their attitude towards UNWRA in this specific moment will have
wider regional implications,” Mr. Gunness said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9R2swHmvWl2FBSJCuX54u3xkmIx5eXsgYEIP9nT0skJ4utwRuJtszTla5jLGX5EhNq9KeHmTL60sej9ShezUFtpp2w1E8AawfpwFyIuLhyphenhyphenVE4zM2LXb5drNPgJ5IN9ScrnY0lUObs2XsMLZFNi3WSdzJ9COHXAMgbHzb8ZS64a5FZXhy5kYSG0B57JL0/s1560/Christopher%20Gunnes.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1040" data-original-width="1560" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9R2swHmvWl2FBSJCuX54u3xkmIx5eXsgYEIP9nT0skJ4utwRuJtszTla5jLGX5EhNq9KeHmTL60sej9ShezUFtpp2w1E8AawfpwFyIuLhyphenhyphenVE4zM2LXb5drNPgJ5IN9ScrnY0lUObs2XsMLZFNi3WSdzJ9COHXAMgbHzb8ZS64a5FZXhy5kYSG0B57JL0/s320/Christopher%20Gunnes.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Christopher Robert
Paul Gunness, UNRWA’s </span></i><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">former spokesman. Photo:<span style="background: white;"> United Nations / John Gillespie</span></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Former UNWRA
official Lex Takkenberg suggested that the organization may only feel the
financial pinch several months down the road. He said UNRWA will likely have
received “large advances” on pledged funds that will keep it afloat for some
time.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“Hopefully,
by that time an investigation will have demonstrated results,” Mr. Takkenberg
said, adding that in past cases, Israel often failed to provide evidence,
forcing UNRWA to close an investigation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israeli
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s foreign policy advisor, Ophir Falk,
asserted that there was “abundant evidence… It seems that this is </span><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2024/01/28/exp-israel-unrwa-ophir-falk-012803aseg02-cnni-world.cnn"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">just the tip of the iceberg</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">… An in-depth investigation is
underway.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Falk
said the evidence was on camera and based on information revealed by captured
Hamas operatives.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The US-led response
to the allegations bolsters a long-standing Israeli campaign against UNRWA that
is as much an integral part of a broader policy to undermine Palestinians’
refugee status as it may be based on legitimate concerns.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel hopes
to undermine Palestinians’ insistence on the right to self-determination and an
independent state by depriving many of them of their refugee status that dates
to Israel’s creation and the 1948 and 1967 Middle East wars.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">To be sure,
UNWRA defines as refugees not only those Palestinians who fled the wars, but
also their descendants, now in their fourth generation. In doing so, the agency
has a vested interest in maintaining their status, which is not to diminish
Palestinian rights.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“Israel has
been </span><a href="file:///C:/Users/jmdor/Documents/Blog/Israel%20has%20been%20building%20a%20case%20against%20UNRWA%20for%20a%20long%20time.%20It%20said%20weeks%20ago%20it%20wants%20it%20phased%20out%20of%20Gaza.%20Regardless%20of%20the%20veracity%20of%20the%20charge,%20the%20decision%20to%20go%20with%20this%20news%20last%20night%20seems%20like%20an%20attempt%20to%20distract%20from%20the%20ICJ%20ruling%20on%20genocide%20in%20Gaza."><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">building a case against UNRWA</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> for a long time… Regardless of the
veracity of the charge, the decision to go with this news…seems like an attempt
to distract from the ICJ ruling on genocide in Gaza,” said International Crisis
Group Israel analyst Mairav Zeinszon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By not
following due process, Western countries have fuelled an Israeli campaign that could
add to the suffering in Gaza and complicate efforts to resolve the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“We have
been warning for years: @UNRWA perpetuates the refugee issue, obstructs peace,
and serves as a civilian arm of Hamas in Gaza… </span><a href="https://twitter.com/Israel_katz/status/1751153470617379008"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">UNRWA will not be a part of the day
after</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,” said Israeli
Foreign Minister Israel Katz, referring to the day hostilities end.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvIEuV9fZR4j-2bG0diWNecfE8IWaNQzwg6ina02SlpiIXwqPB2z_wQbLbDoluIEp8ScbapBdWbO_NYZoEGUDGJoe4I3yeUY1nYybEsEGTm2D4FRw0IOzWKXTprh_PEPzok7-rK15ymi1_KMmBdbQfLgVmPLHMcWwQjkb6fj73sGGdaYh2orzvpMxLRpQ/s624/Israel%20Katz.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvIEuV9fZR4j-2bG0diWNecfE8IWaNQzwg6ina02SlpiIXwqPB2z_wQbLbDoluIEp8ScbapBdWbO_NYZoEGUDGJoe4I3yeUY1nYybEsEGTm2D4FRw0IOzWKXTprh_PEPzok7-rK15ymi1_KMmBdbQfLgVmPLHMcWwQjkb6fj73sGGdaYh2orzvpMxLRpQ/s320/Israel%20Katz.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Israeli Foreign
Minister Israel Katz .Photo: Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu via Getty Images<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Critics take
Mr. Katz’s assertion with a grain of salt.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“</span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-01-28/ty-article/.premium/unrwa-is-riddled-with-hamas-but-israel-has-no-alternative/0000018d-5122-d3ab-a5cf-53bf4b370000"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel is not about to suspend its
ties with UNRWA</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">… Unless
the Israel Defense Forces decides it wants to distribute the food, water and
medical supplies to over 2 million Palestinians in Gaza, it needs UNRWA to do
it… It's just a matter of time before those Western governments restore UNRWA's
funding… UNRWA will still be full of Hamas members, and it will still be needed
nevertheless.” said prominent Israeli journalist Anshel Pfeffer.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">UNRWA has
not denied allegations that 12 staff members participated in the October 7
attack in which 1,100 people, mostly civilians, were killed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In response
to the allegations, UNRWA said it had </span><a href="https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/official-statements/serious-allegations-against-unrwa-staff-gaza-strip"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">fired the employees identified by the
US and Israel</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. “Any
UNRWA employee who was involved in acts of terror will be held accountable,
including through criminal prosecution,” UNRWA said.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The UN
organisation noted that it “shares the list of all its staff with host
countries every year, including Israel. The Agency never received any concerns
on specific staff members.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">UNRWA has
asked for an </span><a href="https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/official-statements/unrwa%E2%80%99s-lifesaving-aid-may-end-due-funding-suspension"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">independent investigation</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, while warning that Gazans depended
on it for humanitarian aid.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
investigation could substantiate allegations that support for Hamas among UNRWA
staff is broader than the organisation has admitted.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">UN Watch, a
pro-Israel group focused on the United Nations, asserted that 3,000 UNRWA
teachers were members of a Telegram chat group that </span><a href="https://unwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/UN-Watch-UNRWA-Terrorgram-.pdf"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“celebrated the October 7th Hamas
massacre.”</span></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKaYuWsJX0osO6MyEesWDU_Ct5qHdoDNWwgLN9a-6pduOqQiu8gxBoptxqacKUuDjpzZQGKIpb1mPlvqfx0MVuPkIBjkFv6wY6d4c-nyf2JtmnEn6XnnXzchLeH6Hx7ROPLuAeKfp60XdEFSGbez6shapq06isKgJoX-7MzFkCFeIlCzJg1iqveBD-vUA/s657/UN%20Watch-UNRWA.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="657" data-original-width="464" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKaYuWsJX0osO6MyEesWDU_Ct5qHdoDNWwgLN9a-6pduOqQiu8gxBoptxqacKUuDjpzZQGKIpb1mPlvqfx0MVuPkIBjkFv6wY6d4c-nyf2JtmnEn6XnnXzchLeH6Hx7ROPLuAeKfp60XdEFSGbez6shapq06isKgJoX-7MzFkCFeIlCzJg1iqveBD-vUA/s320/UN%20Watch-UNRWA.png" width="226" /></a></div><br /></div></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">UNRWA’s TERROGRAM, UN Watch Report on
</span></i></span><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">how a telegram group of 3,000 UNRWA
teachers in Gaza celebrated the October 7th Hamas massacre. Photo: unwatch.org<span class="MsoHyperlink"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">It
was unclear whether the chat group included only current staff or also past
employees.</span></span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Before the
war, UNRWA allocated </span><a href="https://www.unrwa.org/where-we-work/gaza-strip"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">58 per cent of its budget to education</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. It operated 183 schools in Gaza
attended by 286,000 students that follow curricula provided by the Palestine
Authority supplemented by materials produced by the UN organisation’s staff. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Since the
war, UNRWA schools have become shelters for Palestinians displaced by
hostilities.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.impact-se.org/wp-content/uploads/UNRWA-Education-Textbooks-and-Terror-Nov-2023.pdf"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A November 2023 report</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> by the Institute for Monitoring
Peace and Cultural Tolerance in School Education (Impact-SE), an Israeli group
that engages in textbook analysis, asserted that materials in UNRWA schools
were “openly anti-Semitic and continue to encourage violence, jihad, and martyrdom
while peace is not taught as preferable or even possible. Extreme nationalism
and Islamist ideologies proliferate throughout the curriculum, including in
science and math textbooks.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9fxcxUxPC0RypfpmBMq9q5RTZo3b7Pf-Esium294U8jRBm4eCx7tgRFAxURVroT3oUZzPJhcQrBFYJA74oIM7191tG2a1VM7tYq__FhlLi0sesRFV_tvVsGlB0pr9YQO9I3N9LJ0QayiNVvY7VcFzQc21OjyP4MOUOtwC6_1RQ3Rhyphenhyphen-UigbyuZOQQXf4/s585/Impact-se_UNRWA.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="585" data-original-width="451" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9fxcxUxPC0RypfpmBMq9q5RTZo3b7Pf-Esium294U8jRBm4eCx7tgRFAxURVroT3oUZzPJhcQrBFYJA74oIM7191tG2a1VM7tYq__FhlLi0sesRFV_tvVsGlB0pr9YQO9I3N9LJ0QayiNVvY7VcFzQc21OjyP4MOUOtwC6_1RQ3Rhyphenhyphen-UigbyuZOQQXf4/s320/Impact-se_UNRWA.png" width="247" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">UNRWA Education:
Textbooks and Terror, A November 2023 report by Impact-SE. Photo: impact-se.org<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The report
cited, among others, an exercise for 9th graders that celebrated a Palestinian
firebombing attack on a Jewish bus as a “barbecue party” and a female fighter
who in 1978 allegedly murdered Gail Rubin, the niece of US Senator Abraham A.
Ribicoff, and hijacked a bus, killing 38 Israelis, including 13 children.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Responding
to an earlier </span><a href="https://www.impact-se.org/wp-content/uploads/UNRWA_Report_2023_IMPACT-se_And_UN-Watch.pdf"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">March 2023 report</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> co-authored by Impact-Se and UN
Watch, UNRWA said its staff “receive regular in-person training sessions and
mandatory online courses on humanitarian principles, social media use, and
ethics. In addition, UNRWA </span><a href="https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/official-statements/unrwa-statement-joint-un-watch-and-impact-se-report"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">undertakes regular and meticulous
reviews of all textbooks</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> and learning materials.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In response
to a </span><a href="https://www.impact-se.org/wp-content/uploads/Review-of-2022-UNRWA-Produced-School-Materials.pdf"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">2022 report</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, UNRWA asserted it had “in reviewing
the material referenced in the report…, </span><a href="https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/press-releases/unrwa-reviews-and-responds-allegations-concerning-agency-educational"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">discovered the existence of a
private, commercial website that illegally utilizes the Agency’s logo and the
names of UNRWA educators</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. The Agency is seeking additional information on these sites for
follow-up action, including possible legal referral.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">UNRWA noted
that Germany’s Leibniz Institute for Educational Media or Georg Eckert
Institute had concluded in a 2021 study that </span><a href="file:///C:/Users/jmdor/Documents/Archive%2520(Main)/Palestine/Report%2520on%2520Palestinian%2520Textbooks.pdf"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Impact-se reports were “marked by
generalising and exaggerated conclusions based on methodological shortcomings</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">” that require “further investigation
based on an overarching and comprehensive examination of the textbooks,
contextualising the specific passages mentioned.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In a </span><a href="https://unwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/WRD-to-Leader-Schumer-11.2023.pdf"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">letter to US Senate Majority Leader
Charles E. Schumer</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
in November 2023, UNRWA’s Washington representative, William Deere, asserted
that “UNRWA has a stringent staff conduct framework in place to ensure that
staff members do not affiliate themselves, and by extension, UNRWA, with any
other groups. All UNRWA staff, Palestine refugees, and contractors, vendors,
and non-state donors are screened against the Consolidated United Nations
Security Council Sanctions List.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmf_DuvKH1_aRwPK2moTxMMqMvAuWiqWqbO2cwls4k-E7UQDUzEURqe96yQLpRmGyIO1wm4tcB7GG7_lbnZkOxUXZECOQk0jCN3VD8IMUjrLqUdYtmXur8uek-KVo85MkgejmdW-qCqryL29ggIs7BGFpztX3ELnGUDn3Ek0PhCzhk8DonsjEKElE7ojE/s624/William%20Deere.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="624" data-original-width="624" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmf_DuvKH1_aRwPK2moTxMMqMvAuWiqWqbO2cwls4k-E7UQDUzEURqe96yQLpRmGyIO1wm4tcB7GG7_lbnZkOxUXZECOQk0jCN3VD8IMUjrLqUdYtmXur8uek-KVo85MkgejmdW-qCqryL29ggIs7BGFpztX3ELnGUDn3Ek0PhCzhk8DonsjEKElE7ojE/s320/William%20Deere.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">UNRWA’s Washington
representative, William Deere. Photo: wilsoncenter.org<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">To be sure,
a majority of Gazan Hamas affiliates are unlikely to have been added to the
sanctions list.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even so,
backing for Hamas among mostly Gazan UNRWA staff suggests broader popular support
for Hamas that ebbs and flows, particularly in times of war. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Moreover, the
anti-UNRWA campaign speaks to the achievability of Israel’s goal of destroying
Hamas. It suggests that Hamas has a popular base that will ensure it is a
Palestinian force to reckon with irrespective of when the guns in Gaza fall
silent.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As a result,
the solution is not penalising UNRWA at a time of Gazans’ greatest need. The
immediate solution is due process leading to reform of the organisation and, ultimately,
a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that meets the aspirations and
security needs of Israelis and Palestinians.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For Israel,
this is true strategically and tactically. Already on the defensive in an
information war in which images of carnage speak louder than words, Israel
would benefit more from being seen as complying with the international court’s
emphasis on humanitarian aid and encouraging UNRWA to tackle its problematic
issues.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">"Israel
can just go and say whatever it wants…but basically, </span><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/social-media-information-war-israel-hamas-conflict/story?id=104845039"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">if you are explaining, you are losing</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. Online, what speaks powerfully is
images," said Max Boot, a military historian and foreign policy analyst.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“We're used
to a reality where history is written by the victor. </span><a href="https://time.com/6549544/israel-and-hamas-the-media-war/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It's not the case anymore</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">," conceded Masha Michelson, an
Israeli military social media warrior.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk02V7v2Nuh_EOibEynGBxe7AQlQ5uJ6UgaezpvqdWPT56D7CTkahRohzsGlIUhRQjtrVNg_0hyphenhyphenxewqepR_T6tpeZoWXF9x7ygc9wVex6vsp0TWLSgFN98vJFzIxLMUAlAE6JMtTsISdrNYKtu6OMnQfeHjoXMkkM2aM3Oj3-TPDQtHF1SzG0kykvQsFw/s485/Masha%20Michelson.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="485" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk02V7v2Nuh_EOibEynGBxe7AQlQ5uJ6UgaezpvqdWPT56D7CTkahRohzsGlIUhRQjtrVNg_0hyphenhyphenxewqepR_T6tpeZoWXF9x7ygc9wVex6vsp0TWLSgFN98vJFzIxLMUAlAE6JMtTsISdrNYKtu6OMnQfeHjoXMkkM2aM3Oj3-TPDQtHF1SzG0kykvQsFw/s320/Masha%20Michelson.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Masha Michelson,
Deputy Head of the IDF International Press Department - IDF Spokesperson's
Unit. Photo: linkedin.com / Masha Michelson<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a name="_Hlk136859387"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct
Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i></a><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Turbulent World with James M.
Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div></div>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-57285432214017207912024-01-27T13:19:00.001+08:002024-01-27T13:19:45.709+08:00International court ruling likely to shape Israel-Hamas prisoner exchange talks.<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc31QJlOwSj9GVsYw8weEAOsd4eAXX0xsfz0iY0JT8a8UaRyrK6ZVPYlFBTrFSygihSRdtJSh6F9JaVEh3XAjD3wedCBWuMskF8BPt8EV01YOBk9Z5RwEAeSeEnJriNKFydEdEIx035-rAJJFG4mhXyUlIkEc54_r3LSNk_RI2-4nQc8jMHCztbWrwUkI/s1280/ICJ-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc31QJlOwSj9GVsYw8weEAOsd4eAXX0xsfz0iY0JT8a8UaRyrK6ZVPYlFBTrFSygihSRdtJSh6F9JaVEh3XAjD3wedCBWuMskF8BPt8EV01YOBk9Z5RwEAeSeEnJriNKFydEdEIx035-rAJJFG4mhXyUlIkEc54_r3LSNk_RI2-4nQc8jMHCztbWrwUkI/s320/ICJ-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By James M.
Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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this story on YouTube please click</span></em><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://youtu.be/4Vbj-KQtRbw" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> here.</span></em></a></span><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></u></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An audio podcast is available
on </span></em></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/international-court-ruling-likely-to-shape-israel-hamas-prisoner-exchange-talks" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud.</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel and
Hamas are likely to be buoyed in efforts to secure a ceasefire and a new round
of prisoner exchanges by an </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/1/26/live-icj-to-issue-preliminary-ruling-in-south-africa-genocide-case-against-i?update=2651175"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">International Court of Justice ruling</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> that Israel’s conduct in Gaza risks
acts of genocide, even though the court’s decision failed to satisfy either
party.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">To be sure,
Hamas was not a party to the court case initiated by South Africa nor is it at
the top table of the negotiators.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even so
David Barnea, the head of Israel’s foreign intelligence service Mossad, will be
relieved that the court shied away from calling for a ceasefire in the war when
he </span><a href="https://t.co/qimmiVkdWH"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">meets in France</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> this weekend with CIA director Bill Burns, Qatari Prime
Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani and Egyptian spy chief
General Abbas Kamel.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQSdf_sdE-eODl7nB_GvtNHmLUGK8d3gejrcH0UxqiF1oOv9tzzCjkoqPt2yq2Px3eLrIzAdnAidWlqSOci9IV8tPcWdSn8U6X00xMoSAH_xoysr2QKTp8VzE-3DNfckPNaewVvCdusP5a2RQq2xK_-h1D8pMhVePJzEZ-Chdx8VArRz-bPAiMpdjstOk/s165/Barnea-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="103" data-original-width="165" height="103" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQSdf_sdE-eODl7nB_GvtNHmLUGK8d3gejrcH0UxqiF1oOv9tzzCjkoqPt2yq2Px3eLrIzAdnAidWlqSOci9IV8tPcWdSn8U6X00xMoSAH_xoysr2QKTp8VzE-3DNfckPNaewVvCdusP5a2RQq2xK_-h1D8pMhVePJzEZ-Chdx8VArRz-bPAiMpdjstOk/s1600/Barnea-1.png" width="165" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Mossad chief David
Barnea at a ceremony marking his taking the helm of the agency, on June 1,
2021. Photo: Kobi Gideon/GPO<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A call for a
ceasefire would have weakened his negotiating position.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The talks
are intended to arrange a ceasefire that would allow for the exchange of more
than 100 remaining Hamas-held hostages for a large number of Palestinians in
Israeli prisons.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The hostages
were abducted and taken to Gaza on October 7 when Hamas attacked Israel,
killing more than 1,100 people, mostly civilians.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For its
part, Hamas will be buoyed by the legal and moral implications for Israel of
the court ruling that there was a genocide case to be heard and its insistence
that Israel address the mounting humanitarian crisis in Gaza, even if the 17
judges did not order a ceasefire.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The ruling
and the moral blow dealt by the court to Israel will likely reinforce Hamas’
demand that prisoner exchanges be linked to an immediate and permanent
ceasefire.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">To avoid
further damage to its already tarnished moral standing, Israel failed to
persuade the court to reject the South African complaint under the genocide
convention. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In response
to the ruling, Mr. Netanyahu rejected the court case as “outrageous,” </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keJc6ZtkXQs"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">a “vile attempt”</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> to deny Israel the right to defend itself, and
“discrimination against the Jewish state.” However, the prime minister and
other senior officials stopped short of disclosing whether they would comply
with the ruling.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Beyond the
impact of the court ruling, Messrs. Burns and Al Thani’s mediation efforts will
likely be facilitated by domestic pressure on both the Israeli government and
Hamas, although that is no guarantee of success.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i></i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL8twX6uWFUVvMBpvut9IdaYbxDi-lWGebwIWP0fbT8KmEPS5DhU78PJQbW99chPu9o-3g2RtdpKPofQoQHeAAcers_c_cemPAH-P11jLDBuqa19rN8hrESHSN-KAhJ4WoRghIa6WM9qi6FdmxAcBQG61nlGkhdw9aURepxCiTUkbJasibpVrfPseHaJs/s165/Burns-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="93" data-original-width="165" height="93" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL8twX6uWFUVvMBpvut9IdaYbxDi-lWGebwIWP0fbT8KmEPS5DhU78PJQbW99chPu9o-3g2RtdpKPofQoQHeAAcers_c_cemPAH-P11jLDBuqa19rN8hrESHSN-KAhJ4WoRghIa6WM9qi6FdmxAcBQG61nlGkhdw9aURepxCiTUkbJasibpVrfPseHaJs/s1600/Burns-1.png" width="165" /></a></i></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">William Burns testifies during a
Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. Photo:
Tom Williams/Pool/Reuters<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Israeli
government is under pressure from hostage families to </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/relatives-gaza-hostages-storm-israeli-parliament-panel-2024-01-22/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">prioritize</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> the release of their loved ones even
if that requires an end to the war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Cracks
within Israel’s military and political establishment suggest that some Israeli
leaders support the families’ quest.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gadi
Eisenkot, a member of Mr. Netanyahu’s war cabinet and former Israel Defence
Forces chief of staff, recently warned that </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-challenge-to-pm-eisenkot-says-talk-of-absolute-defeat-of-hamas-a-tall-tale/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">only a ceasefire can secure the
release of the hostages</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. Mr. Eisenkot’s 25-year-old son was killed in Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hostage
families and far-right protesters sought for the third day running to </span><a href="https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-783850"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">prevent humanitarian aid trucks from
entering into Gaza</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
by blocking the Kerem Shalom crossing point from Israel into the Strip. The
protesters oppose aid to Gaza as long as Hamas does not release the hostages.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The protests
prompted US defense secretary Lloyd Austin to stress the importance of
"the transfer of humanitarian aid to Gaza, without interruption." in
a phone call with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFogyMsCAQe8l_5SyO2LxsTrvQmiT0rOsjH3zy-sO3WDvEdYNqO2lkyBHCKmTvGYHy57W2V6oZYe-EDNwwQdEU8zhLNkI-XwXWFz_p2MQNa21Je_hnc27COtbj7PYeu-VhciE-KO3CpMcS6bWHNzRhcr738SkazDtG_KY1mqDQXsOj7frvljWkCQwKwGw/s165/Austin-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="110" data-original-width="165" height="110" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFogyMsCAQe8l_5SyO2LxsTrvQmiT0rOsjH3zy-sO3WDvEdYNqO2lkyBHCKmTvGYHy57W2V6oZYe-EDNwwQdEU8zhLNkI-XwXWFz_p2MQNa21Je_hnc27COtbj7PYeu-VhciE-KO3CpMcS6bWHNzRhcr738SkazDtG_KY1mqDQXsOj7frvljWkCQwKwGw/s1600/Austin-1.png" width="165" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">General Lloyd James
Austin III, commanding general of United States Forces - Iraq, appears before
the US Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on US policy towards Iraq, on
Capitol Hill in Washington DC. Photo: Michael Reynolds/EPA/EFE<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Meanwhile, </span><a href="https://twitter.com/KhalilJeries/status/1750254486679847230"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">videos</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> posted on social media show </span><a href="https://twitter.com/KhalilJeries/status/1750514698007539830"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gazans demonstrating for a ceasefire,
peace</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, a return to
their homes, and the release of the Hamas-held hostages.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“We, the
people, are the victims. </span><a href="https://www.memri.org/tv/displaced-gaza-residents-hold-anti-hamas-rallies-hold-posters-calling-release-israeli-hostages"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">They (in Hamas) are just asleep and
know nothing about us</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.
The war is against the people, not against them. We want to go back home,’ said
one protester.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Writing in
+972, an online Israeli-Palestinian magazine, a Gaza-based journalist said “we
are beginning to wonder… Is Hamas cooperating with Israel?... Our dignity and
our lives are being violated daily, and no one is providing us with help — do
they know, but just don’t care?... </span><a href="https://www.972mag.com/gaza-suffering-hamas-leadership/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Where is Hamas when it comes to
protecting and preserving the interests of the people?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">” <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A Washington
Institute for Near East Policy study, released less than 24 hours before the
international court ruling, </span><a href="https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/media/7168?disposition=inline"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">cast doubt on the Gaza Health
Ministry’s casualty figures</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. The ministry reported almost 26,000 deaths as of this writing, a figure
accepted by international organisations and media based on a perception of the
ministry’s accuracy track record.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
institute’s criticism focused on the ministry’s failure to distinguish between civilians
and Palestinian fighters, Gazan authorities’ alleged underreporting of male
deaths given that males are more likely to be fighters, and methodological
issues, some of which are due to reporting difficulties during a war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Countering
the report, Israeli journalist Yuval Abraham reported that </span><a href="https://twitter.com/yuval_abraham/status/1750123648533324158"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israeli intelligence relied on the
ministry’s numbers</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
after finding them to be “reliable” and conceded the intelligence services had
no independent way of assessing casualty rates.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Abraham
said Israeli intelligence had no independent estimate because the military does
not conduct post-strike bomb damage assessments.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Civilian
casualties remain excessive even if one deducts from the ministry’s figures
Israeli and US estimates of the number of Palestinian fighters killed to date.
These estimates </span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-toll-thus-far-falls-short-of-israels-war-aims-u-s-says-d1c43164"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">range between 6,000 and 9,000</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel says
it has killed 9,000 fighters, while the United States believes that between 20
and 30 per cent of Hamas’ 30,000-strong fighting force have died.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It’s unclear
whether ministry figures include fighters. However, if one assumes all fighters
are taken into account, that would still, based on US and Israeli estimates,
leave at least 17,000 civilians killed. This includes a significant number of
women and children.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As a result,
the institute’s report is likely to do little to change widespread criticism of
Israel’s war conduct, even though it will serve those advocating Israel’s right
to defend itself in the manner it has chosen to do so.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The report
is also unlikely to weaken gradually mounting US pressure on Israel to alter
its war tactics. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel needs
to “make sure” that its military “not just understand where deconflicted
facilities are as they have those maps, but also the threshold for strikes
needs to be such that a </span><a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/01/us-pressures-israel-military-targeting-khan-younis-fighting-intensifies"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">very, very careful, rigorous, and
sustained calculus</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
is applied when a target is in site,” said US special envoy for Middle Eastern
humanitarian issues David Satterfield.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr.
Satterfield was criticising Israel for often indiscriminate bombings, including
of areas designated as safe for displaced Palestinians by the Israeli military
as well as the targeting of hospitals, schools, houses of worship and United
Nations facilities.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">An estimated
85 per cent of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million has been displaced at the
behest of Israel. Many sought refuge in public facilities like hospitals in
ever smaller parts of Gaza, primarily in the south of the Strip. These were
subsequently attacked by Israel despite being declared safe.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr.
Netanyahu’s domestic woes are not limited to hostage families. He also differs
with significant segments of public opinion in his attitude towards Qatar, the
key mediator of prisoner exchanges, and his partner-in-crime in </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/catching-flack-qatar-s-gaza-mediation-is-a-balancing-act"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">keeping the Palestinian polity
divided</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> between
Hamas and Palestine President Mahmoud Abbas’ Al Fatah movement.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZcP2cMVfrJHhgAJDwem_mhDo3rge8Um0DnqpAs6OF5nyJATBlkfSoNnq3Lt_swtX55xIsQLBmaeKQishyphenhyphent71jRR3a7w4G3rAtkOo2iFcdPqj79uWgIem0ZgIJYF_-dooely-hCOYY4XDIkuaFYajKShgjwTe4tOcmeo0DntxBgO6KPAVaTt_KwVJUUKk/s165/Abbas-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="110" data-original-width="165" height="110" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZcP2cMVfrJHhgAJDwem_mhDo3rge8Um0DnqpAs6OF5nyJATBlkfSoNnq3Lt_swtX55xIsQLBmaeKQishyphenhyphent71jRR3a7w4G3rAtkOo2iFcdPqj79uWgIem0ZgIJYF_-dooely-hCOYY4XDIkuaFYajKShgjwTe4tOcmeo0DntxBgO6KPAVaTt_KwVJUUKk/s1600/Abbas-1.png" width="165" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
Photo: AP/Amr Nabil<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“Israel is
reeling from October 7… They are scared, they are displaced… and they have a
leadership that is promising things that it is not able to make good on. So, in
some ways, </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fD06vXrFkw"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel is praying and hoping that (US
President Joe) Biden, or Qatar, or somebody is going to make something happen</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> that will give them some reprieve,”
said senior International Crisis Group analyst Mairav Zonszein.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In private
remarks to the hostage families that were leaked to an Israeli television
station, Mr. Netanyahu disparaged Qatari efforts and prided himself on not
thanking Qatar. The prime minister’s office </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-01-25/ty-article/.premium/netanyahus-office-okayed-leaked-recording-of-him-bashing-qatar/0000018d-4160-d35c-a39f-eb7af9c60000"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">endorsed the leak</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In November,
the Gulf state negotiated </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/israel-hamas-prisoner-talks-are-mired-by-politics"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">a one-week truce</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> during which more than 100 Hamas-held
hostages were released in exchange for 240 Palestinians incarcerated by Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">"You
don't hear me thanking Qatar... It is essentially no different from the UN or
Red Cross, and in a certain sense is even more problematic – I have no
illusions about them… They have leverage over (Hamas). Why do they have
leverage? Because they finance them,” Mr. Netanyahu told the families, ignoring
that </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinians/2019-02-10/ty-article/.premium/with-israels-consent-qatar-gave-gaza-1-billion-since-2012/0000017f-db44-df9c-a17f-ff5cd6670000"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Qatari funding of Hamas in Gaza</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> was at his behest.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This week,
the </span><a href="https://twitter.com/RobbieGramer/status/1750895411563213272"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">United States temporarily halted
funding</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> of the
United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the largest UN operation in
Gaza, because of allegations, based on Israeli intelligence, that 12 of its
employees had participated in Hamas’ October 7 attack. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In a
statement, UNRWA said it had </span><a href="https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/official-statements/serious-allegations-against-unrwa-staff-gaza-strip"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">immediately terminated the suspects</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr.
Netanyahu said he got “</span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/qatar-as-mediator-problematic-us-could-be-applying-more-pressure-netanyahu-tells-hostages-families/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">very angry recently with the
Americans</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">” for
renewing a deal to extend the US military presence at a base in Qatar, a major
non-NATO US ally and host of the largest American base in the Middle East, for
another 10 years.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr.
Netanyahu suggested the United States should have used the extension as
leverage to force Qatar to exert pressure on Hamas.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“</span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/amid-widening-spat-smotrich-accuses-qatar-of-impeding-hostage-talks-to-serve-hamas/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Qatar is the biggest obstacle to
returning the hostages</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. We could get all 136 hostages tomorrow if Qatar would give Hamas an
ultimatum to return all the hostages, and if the West would give Qatar an
ultimatum to do that,” Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right finance minister Bezalel
Smotrich said in separate comments.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Describing
the remarks as “puzzling,” Mr. Netanyahu’s former head of Mossad, the foreign
intelligence service, Yossi Cohen, warned that a rupture in Israeli-Qatari
relations would provoke “</span><a href="https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-783733#google_vignette"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">a crisis too large to overcome</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. Qatar would escape from the
negotiating table, and we would be left without effective mediation."<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvn5nwKLTXC8_7OkVayC7KIQwTFKdMOeBHx89O6gVaOzjTvokBiRjH1DwqZJiyezFgfwlkYT3rO_RM_y4W5v7cg8ZjF2ecZ2nQad4saRVFMH4Da-6juKorGl_tP-ljtp2OL7n0jghtB7XmlXw5AUA2W_V14Rw4LYXn9TORqmh1vIafpPEA5pbBP1kB3x4/s165/Yossi%20Cohen.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="110" data-original-width="165" height="110" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvn5nwKLTXC8_7OkVayC7KIQwTFKdMOeBHx89O6gVaOzjTvokBiRjH1DwqZJiyezFgfwlkYT3rO_RM_y4W5v7cg8ZjF2ecZ2nQad4saRVFMH4Da-6juKorGl_tP-ljtp2OL7n0jghtB7XmlXw5AUA2W_V14Rw4LYXn9TORqmh1vIafpPEA5pbBP1kB3x4/s1600/Yossi%20Cohen.png" width="165" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Former head of the
Mossad Yossi Cohen attends the Jerusalem Post Conference, held in Jerusalem, on
October 12, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)<o:p></o:p></span></i></p></div><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Qatari
foreign ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari described Mr. Netanyahu’s comments as
</span><a href="https://twitter.com/majedalansari/status/1750235341053641174"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“irresponsible’ and “destructive.”</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Mr. Al-Ansari said Mr. Netanyahu
made the statement for “reasons that appear to serve his political career
instead of prioritizing saving innocent lives, including Israeli hostages.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That
analysis is shared by some Israeli analysts who suggest the leak was designed
to thwart hostage negotiations.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Prolonged
silencing of the guns as part of a deal “could mean the end of the war without
toppling Hamas. That could mean the end of (Netanyahu’s) governing coalition,
and that could mean mass demonstrations demanding his resignation or an
immediate general election,” said Haaretz journalist Alon Pinkas.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr.
Netanyahu is expected to face a political reckoning that could end his
political life once the fighting ends. A majority of Israelis hold him
responsible for intelligence and operational failures that enabled Hamas’
October 7 attack, the worst against Israel since the 1973 Middle East war. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">An opinion
poll earlier this month concluded that </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/only-15-israelis-want-netanyahu-keep-job-after-gaza-war-poll-finds-2024-01-02/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">only 15 per cent of Israelis want Mr.
Netanyahu to stay in office</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> after the Gaza war ends.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Similarly,
Mr. Netanyahu’s public rejection of the creation of an independent Palestinian
state alongside Israel as part of a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict appears to be at odds with a majority of Israelis.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A poll this
week concluded that </span><a href="https://geneva-accord.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/GI-Midgam-Poll-January-2024-1.pdf"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">51.3 per cent of those surveyed</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> would support an independent
Palestinian state provided it was demilitarised. Almost 20 per cent said they
did not know what their attitude would be.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Pinkas,
the Haaretz journalist, implicitly appeared to take the poll with a grain of
salt even though he did not refer to the survey directly.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“What the US
seems unable to understand is that there are two phases to the process, and the
first is about revenge and anxiety. October 7…instilled fear, uncertainty, and
humiliation in Israelis. When they hear ‘a Palestinian state,’ many now
intuitively think about…more October 7s… </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/2024-01-22/ty-article/.premium/israel-and-the-u-s-are-engaging-in-a-bogus-debate-over-the-two-state-solution/0000018d-3176-d81e-abdf-397e98c40000"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Who in their right mind would
entertain such a solution?</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">” Mr. Pinkas said.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hamas
political bureau member Bassem Naim reinforced Israeli sentiments, claiming in
an article on Al Jazeera’s Arabic website that the October 7 attack was “</span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.net/opinions/2024/1/16/100-%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%85-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%85%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%B7%D9%88%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%82%D8%B5%D9%89"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">a scaled-down model</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> of the final liberation battle and
the demise of the enemy.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9aVZigxQznrnAFktgWCwHSqC4LKokjTuvUWoa4jQRLA_dg76_j0Tgw57hUvYETZpumuHB1SjTfl08otzsSHIJnJaoZth7AN5h8x4Y1bA6FdX4D6O_eRuI8lkzwpXtcAh9Haa8-GltK9bP5BJzrcpJwMzQsywjYXNr0vrwJHhY_ITihYegKYwsXFh8hjM/s165/Bassem%20Naim.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="93" data-original-width="165" height="93" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9aVZigxQznrnAFktgWCwHSqC4LKokjTuvUWoa4jQRLA_dg76_j0Tgw57hUvYETZpumuHB1SjTfl08otzsSHIJnJaoZth7AN5h8x4Y1bA6FdX4D6O_eRuI8lkzwpXtcAh9Haa8-GltK9bP5BJzrcpJwMzQsywjYXNr0vrwJHhY_ITihYegKYwsXFh8hjM/s1600/Bassem%20Naim.png" width="165" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Bassem Naim in his
office in Gaza City.
Photo: Heidi Levine / star<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The
Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><br /><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><br /><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><br /><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;"><br /></span></i></p></div><br /><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span><p></p>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-56905253576081430532024-01-24T02:24:00.004+08:002024-01-24T02:24:49.154+08:00Looking for fig leaves: Israel and Hamas negotiate terms of a ceasefire.<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicscnj4kJ4cpD29FQMvOS2wu7bWtL9x0sEk5gBknvjpvmKLFbruCJvuF0ha8FOxJTujQlyNQN6CuLemkXaOZ1YPNX95FC827ZEf9FH-dVRG0YlRS65dgpB6vb8dI7hugxrFutgV1Zm9zn4ggpqAjs9YdeHtOstU1TRtx8LqngbgJYjDpLV1zaCVDN2CSc/s1280/Israel%20and%20Hamas%20negotiate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicscnj4kJ4cpD29FQMvOS2wu7bWtL9x0sEk5gBknvjpvmKLFbruCJvuF0ha8FOxJTujQlyNQN6CuLemkXaOZ1YPNX95FC827ZEf9FH-dVRG0YlRS65dgpB6vb8dI7hugxrFutgV1Zm9zn4ggpqAjs9YdeHtOstU1TRtx8LqngbgJYjDpLV1zaCVDN2CSc/s320/Israel%20and%20Hamas%20negotiate.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
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subscription options. Thank you.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To watch a video version of
this story on YouTube please click</span></em><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://youtu.be/PsfU7zRtHbs" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> here.</span></em></a></span><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></u></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An audio podcast is available
on </span></em></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/looking-for-fig-leaves-israel-and-hamas-negotiate-terms-of-a-ceasefire" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud.</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If one
listens to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Hamas leaders, there
is only one conclusion: an end to the Gaza carnage is nowhere in sight.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbFL1Dm_VWtiQZw_5nz5pzQgHurxMjCUdJeVCpuC1d6vvmroWGMUDYCeCV0xIa8aiqyOtWTzCy-_-oTaKiA67-N7huHQNzHSV8bDZc-4SSqPxc5fTYVHNiLRo1ER6lD46UhN87H9bUauyVxdMDcThlN6gApBTbBw-Ew3fNNnzsLmp6IHzsodwILv2GptU/s624/Netanyahu%202402024.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbFL1Dm_VWtiQZw_5nz5pzQgHurxMjCUdJeVCpuC1d6vvmroWGMUDYCeCV0xIa8aiqyOtWTzCy-_-oTaKiA67-N7huHQNzHSV8bDZc-4SSqPxc5fTYVHNiLRo1ER6lD46UhN87H9bUauyVxdMDcThlN6gApBTbBw-Ew3fNNnzsLmp6IHzsodwILv2GptU/s320/Netanyahu%202402024.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; letter-spacing: -.1pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Photo: Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If anything,
judging by their increasingly maximalist statements, Mr. Netanyahu and Hamas
are determined to fight to the bitter end irrespective of the carnage in Gaza
and the fate of more than 100 people held hostage by the group.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr.
Netanyahu’s categorical rejection this weekend of an independent Palestinian
state and insistence that Israel would retain control of Gaza and the occupied
West Bank appeared designed to counter US pressure, pacify his
ultra-nationalist coalition partners, and deprive Hamas of an incentive to
compromise.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68025945"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Control of Gaza and the West Bank “is
a necessary condition</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,
and it conflicts with the idea of (Palestinian) sovereignty. What to do? I tell
this truth to our American friends," Mr. Netanyahu said. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In “every
area that we evacuate, we encounter terrible terror... It happened in South
Lebanon, in Gaza, and also in Judea and Samaria (Israel’s Biblical reference to
the West Bank) … Therefore, I clarify that in any other arrangement, in the
future, the state of </span><a href="https://newrepublic.com/post/178243/benjamin-netanyahu-literally-says-from-the-river-to-the-sea"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel has to control the entire
territory west of the Jordan River</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,” Mr. Netanyahu added.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Speaking
barely 24 hours later, exiled Hamas official Khaled Mishaal retorted that “the
position of Hamas, as well as the majority of the Palestinian people…(is)
Palestine from the river to the sea, from north to the south… We must not give
up our right to Palestine…from Rosh Hanikra to Eilat or the Aqaba Bay.”</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwhn4c5XaReEarB-_zmon2WpqEsdr0KQeFqrLkGS7kAlR24nN6gBs0KPBJXrBAp62-42UKov9exo8Vh2IxboflZ2yOR4abqLjaQOp1ngsvZEnxwFBIUvM6hRhzikHP5H6DjgIzM50rM4IErcDClp_OQXGlCtB6-XPHMzKLZS-F9tXIFOuXlaU9-5IpwOA/s1430/Khalid%20Meshaal.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="942" data-original-width="1430" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwhn4c5XaReEarB-_zmon2WpqEsdr0KQeFqrLkGS7kAlR24nN6gBs0KPBJXrBAp62-42UKov9exo8Vh2IxboflZ2yOR4abqLjaQOp1ngsvZEnxwFBIUvM6hRhzikHP5H6DjgIzM50rM4IErcDClp_OQXGlCtB6-XPHMzKLZS-F9tXIFOuXlaU9-5IpwOA/s320/Khalid%20Meshaal.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <o:p></o:p><i style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal gestures
as he announces a new policy document in Doha, Qatar. Photo: REUTERS/Naseem
Zeitoon</span></i><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There may be
more to the maneuvering on both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian divide, notwithstanding
both sides’ seemingly uncompromising position.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Increasingly
facing internal divisions and a post-war reckoning, Mr. Netanyahu and Hamas
leaders see the public adoption of extreme positions as a way to camouflage
their tentative search for a face-saving way to end the Gaza war.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Ironically,
it may be Hamas’ refusal to discuss a second round of prisoner swaps without an
end to the more than three-month-long Gaza war that could create a pathway to a
silencing of the guns.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In November,
Hamas and Israel exchanged more than 100 hostages for 240 Palestinians held in
Israeli prisons during a one-week truce as part of a Qatar-mediated deal.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This week, </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/white-house-mideast-envoy-heading-to-egypt-qatar-for-hostage-deal-talks/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">US Middle East envoy Brett McGurk was
visiting Egypt and Qatar</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> to discuss a Qatari-Egyptian plan that neither Hamas or Israel are
likely to endorse at face value.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwdxiuXK_qU9-7zh3ZIILZhfG7v2LMlcCaw7xjNLBJJMo4DKtKr7I-H0-NWasBBlhgiLMUIgvviGbyBryjR1y-88tcCx6TknpjWbxD0ImxtYNAqsTpU47MY4JrN-MdbKfiU-v3D9DZGnMNllMALuaChIISi1Z9folvlarBl7nNXvSV8jjCkkqDMPJx5ho/s1950/Brett%20McGurk.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1299" data-original-width="1950" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwdxiuXK_qU9-7zh3ZIILZhfG7v2LMlcCaw7xjNLBJJMo4DKtKr7I-H0-NWasBBlhgiLMUIgvviGbyBryjR1y-88tcCx6TknpjWbxD0ImxtYNAqsTpU47MY4JrN-MdbKfiU-v3D9DZGnMNllMALuaChIISi1Z9folvlarBl7nNXvSV8jjCkkqDMPJx5ho/s320/Brett%20McGurk.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">US National
Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk
speaks during the IISS Manama Dialogue security conference, in Manama. Photo:
Mazen Mahdi / AFP</span></i><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Even so,
both parties have expressed interest in negotiating the terms of proposals that
contain elements that Hamas or Israel would find difficult to swallow.</span></div><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
US-backed Qatari-Egyptian plan, </span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-pushes-hostage-release-plan-aimed-at-ending-gaza-war-d48b27e1"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">first reported by The Wall Street
Journal,</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> involves a
90-day phased prisoner swap that would free all remaining hostages in exchange
for Palestinians in Israeli prisons, end the war, facilitate the establishment
of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and create a pathway
for the creation of an independent Palestinian state.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Responding
to the plan without explicitly mentioning it, Mr. Netanyahu insisted that “</span><a href="https://dohanews.co/qatar-egypt-u-s-pushing-for-a-captives-release-ceasefire-plan-in-gaza-as-netanyahu-refuses-to-halt-the-war/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">if we agree to this, then our
warriors fell in vain</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.
If we agree to this, we won't be able to ensure the security of our citizens."
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">News website
Axios and Israeli media reported that </span><a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/22/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-hostages"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel put forward a counter-proposal</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> ten days ago to which Hamas has yet
to respond.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The proposal
involves a ceasefire for up to two months but no end to the war during which
all hostages would be released in phases in exchange for Palestinians held in
Israeli prisons at rates that would be lower for Hamas-held civilians and the
bodies of captives who died or were killed in captivity and higher for Israeli
military personnel. Hamas is believed to still hold 136 hostages and bodies.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In a
surprising move, Israel reportedly offered to </span><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/22/politics/israel-proposal-hamas-leaders-leave-gaza/index.html"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">allow Hamas leaders to leave Gaza</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> as part of the agreement.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The offer is
likely designed to sweeten a possible deal for hardline Gaza-based leader Yahya
Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, the head of the group’s military wing, the Izz ad-Din
al-Qassam Brigades, who are believed to have masterminded the October 7 attack
on Israel that sparked the Gaza war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiStoG4Cgec5kDr1snv5fl72TliJecTWovJ4a35O-aXhqNMB0hp9SdxECzGSnmJmTfV68EmROCKJEszHO_ZskqMr8qTRhFTtTSEuuiliQfInF7x_o1DrATZP1QOMUGq4A4Df9c2DgFNf-chH5_ABePYRfiBu-ieXf8yyh96fEPhmPpIXwAMVd-_1NSwCAE/s1430/Yahya%20Sinwar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="953" data-original-width="1430" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiStoG4Cgec5kDr1snv5fl72TliJecTWovJ4a35O-aXhqNMB0hp9SdxECzGSnmJmTfV68EmROCKJEszHO_ZskqMr8qTRhFTtTSEuuiliQfInF7x_o1DrATZP1QOMUGq4A4Df9c2DgFNf-chH5_ABePYRfiBu-ieXf8yyh96fEPhmPpIXwAMVd-_1NSwCAE/s320/Yahya%20Sinwar.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Yahya Sinwar, head of
Hamas in Gaza, greets his supporters during a meeting with leaders of
Palestinian factions at his office in Gaza City. Photo: AP Photo/Adel Hana,
File</span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel has
repeatedly warned it will hunt down Hamas leaders wherever they are. Israel
killed Saleh al-Arouri, a senior Hamas operative, in Beirut earlier this month.<o:p></o:p></span></p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Messrs.
Sinwar and Deif, Israel’s most wanted men, unlike some of Hamas’ exile leaders,
including Doha-based Ismail Haniyeh, are believed to refuse Israeli demands for
Gaza demilitarsation.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It is
unlikely that Messrs. Sinwar and Deif would take Israel up on its offer.
Moreover, few countries, excluding Iran would be willing to offer them refuge.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Add to that,
the two men’s departure would compromise Hamas’ consistent rejection of
Palestinian President Abbas’ willingness to engage in endless negotiations with
Israel. Instead, Hamas insists that a culture of resistance should be the
raison d’etre of Palestinian governance. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hamas
appeared to stake out its position with the </span><a href="https://twitter.com/ShaykhSulaiman/status/1749061257813008498"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">publication of a 17-page booklet</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> that justified the October 7 attack
in the context of what it described as a century-long struggle for Palestinian
rights and a response to more than half a century of Israeli occupation and
settlement of lands conquered during the 1967 Middle East war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJcQScit5oZ4UqQxu5-gT8ikPpY85J9XZl6XsIvR_xdY60h9kbjTh201wScpbUKDM5ybQIZNB4HvXpoX7LbXxgqoGgBQPZva0BLS1-ljh-_YjJpqGqKGz55L_AbA_TinzI9vrtk7hHq6IW7524HJYdS_-nutvL17sBs1zxtRPciE5a8HW0NXwCnk_BZwc/s813/Hamas%20Booklet.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="624" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJcQScit5oZ4UqQxu5-gT8ikPpY85J9XZl6XsIvR_xdY60h9kbjTh201wScpbUKDM5ybQIZNB4HvXpoX7LbXxgqoGgBQPZva0BLS1-ljh-_YjJpqGqKGz55L_AbA_TinzI9vrtk7hHq6IW7524HJYdS_-nutvL17sBs1zxtRPciE5a8HW0NXwCnk_BZwc/s320/Hamas%20Booklet.jpg" width="246" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="background: white; color: #0f1419; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">HAMAS AL-AQSA FLOOD OPERATION, 17 page booklet release by
Hamas on what really happened on October 7. Photo: Twitter/ @ShaykhSulaiman</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">More than
1,100 people, mostly civilians, were brutally killed in the attack. Some 250
were abducted and taken to Gaza. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">"Israel
has destroyed our ability to create a Palestinian state by accelerating the
settlement enterprise. Were we supposed to continue waiting and relying on the
helpless UN institutions?" the document asked.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The question
seemed as much directed at the international community, particularly the United
States that supports Israel, as toward Palestinians in war-ravaged Gaza and the
battered West Bank and President Mahmoud Abbas’ Palestine Authority that the US
would like to see take control of Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The document
appeared intended to deflect widespread international condemnation of Hamas’
October 7 brutality and to preempt Palestinians ultimately blaming the group for
provoking Israel’s equally brutal sledgehammer response.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If the
experience of past Israel-Hamas conflagrations is anything to judge by,
Palestinians blamed Israel for the devastation caused during wars but within
months of the guns falling silent also pointed a finger at the Islamist group
that has ruled Gaza since 2007.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hamas hopes
that a massive prisoner release and a pathway to a Palestinian state alongside
Israel will give it something to show for the human and physical carnage
suffered by Gazans in almost four months of war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In Beirut, Hamas
spokesman Osama Hamdan, standing against a background of Al-Qassem Brigades
logos, insisted that Palestinians would “not settle for less than an
independent and sovereign state.” Mr. Hamdan left open whether his emphasis on
independence and sovereignty included Palestine’s right to have its own
military force.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Like Hamas,
US President Joe Biden and Mark Regev, a senior Netanyahu advisor, have outlined
a US-Israeli position that would allow for a Palestinian state, albeit
demilitarised.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3HF-wL52CRCzjZD2McPPbUSnK88BAjmebIxv7tbwDl7vv4BHdUsB1XI2jL92r5ndxfMkcpfmG86qMD_4yJEcr337sq2L5iKcwIL95Cpu_7-Aaabl-ODRWT31A2ii-XUyFmIecgLx5uFwGsymTYRiDfvMnf7Eyq7tkXO_YGFLDDXbNIo-B7GwX4UkRC2Y/s624/Mark%20Regev.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="390" data-original-width="624" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3HF-wL52CRCzjZD2McPPbUSnK88BAjmebIxv7tbwDl7vv4BHdUsB1XI2jL92r5ndxfMkcpfmG86qMD_4yJEcr337sq2L5iKcwIL95Cpu_7-Aaabl-ODRWT31A2ii-XUyFmIecgLx5uFwGsymTYRiDfvMnf7Eyq7tkXO_YGFLDDXbNIo-B7GwX4UkRC2Y/s320/Mark%20Regev.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Senior Advisor to
the Israeli Prime Minister Mark Regev. (Tolga AKMEN / POOL / AFP)<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“The idea is
to find a formula where the Palestinians can rule themselves but </span><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/19/politics/joe-biden-benjamin-netanyahu-palestinian-state/index.html"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">not be in a position to threaten
Israel</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. I think
that’s the formula that can help us move forward and find solutions that will
be good for Israelis and good for Palestinians too,” Mr. Regev said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Demilitarisation
and the release of all hostages would give Mr. Netanyahu, who is fighting
corruption charges in court, a victory he needs in an all but certain post-war
reckoning. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A majority
of Israelis hold the prime minister responsible for the intelligence and
operational failures that allowed Hamas to launch the most devastating attack
on Israel in half a century.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">An </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-gives-national-unity-commanding-lead-over-likud-with-a-center-bloc-of-69-mks/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">opinion poll</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> suggested this week that Mr.
Netanyahu’s Likud party would lose half its parliament seats in elections. The
prime minister’s coalition would gain only 46 of the Knesset’s 120 seats compared
to 64 seats it currently controls.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even so,
Israel scholar Yossi Mekelberg warned that “there are </span><a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/01/when-netanyahu-falls-israels-democracy-will-need-new-political-realignments"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">hardly any signs that a (new)
government would represent a sea change</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> when it comes to relations with the Palestinians, or be more
inclined to work towards peace based on a two-state solution.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The
Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-55861841871691378162024-01-20T12:38:00.006+08:002024-01-20T12:38:53.081+08:00Hardliners ride high in the Middle East<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIzu2WY1sbCDNk648PKez4fw_hgBAgbGWwXPxwS5AeTG3tQqwFX-gKkL2NYernCF58pU-xPnMDaT7GpD_CwfxpYaPeQl2ZDv5VqHIeFDdfnsUfVUa6WYOoeIt-5rMyRSMWDkEnNuqhQ4reuNOCE6XwXZ7uyc4pij15sR0BdIw1QemvseUw9jHqMnkKBp8/s1280/Hardliners%20ride%20high.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIzu2WY1sbCDNk648PKez4fw_hgBAgbGWwXPxwS5AeTG3tQqwFX-gKkL2NYernCF58pU-xPnMDaT7GpD_CwfxpYaPeQl2ZDv5VqHIeFDdfnsUfVUa6WYOoeIt-5rMyRSMWDkEnNuqhQ4reuNOCE6XwXZ7uyc4pij15sR0BdIw1QemvseUw9jHqMnkKBp8/s320/Hardliners%20ride%20high.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By James M.
Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A recent Lebanese
public opinion poll suggests there may be limits to Iran-backed Shiite militia
Hezbollah’s restraint in confronting Israel. It also suggests why Iran feels
emboldened by escalating tensions in the Middle East.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The </span><a href="https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/shadow-hezbollah-israel-escalation-poll-shows-slim-majority-lebanese-still-want#utm_term=In%20the%20Shadow%20of%20Hezbollah-Israel%20Escalation%25252C%20Poll%20Shows%20Slim%20Majority%20of%20Lebanese%20Still%20Want%20Focus%20on%20Domestic%20Reforms%20over%20%5Cu201CForeign%20Wars%5Cu201D&utm_campaign=Fikra%20Newsletter%3A%20RSF%20Advances%20in%20Sudan%25252C%20KRG%20Opposition%20Parties%25252C%20Polling%20Shows%20Lebanese%20Want%20to%20Avoid%20War%25252C%20Lebanon%27s%20Environmental%20Challenges%25252C%20Yemeni%20Honey%20Production&utm_content=email&utm_source=Act-On+Software&utm_medium=email&cm_mmc=Act-On%20Software-_-email-_-Fikra%20Newsletter%3A%20RSF%20Advances%20in%20Sudan%25252C%20KRG%20Opposition%20Parties%25252C%20Polling%20Shows%20Lebanese%20Want%20to%20Avoid%20War%25252C%20Lebanon%27s%20Environmental%20Challenges%25252C%20Yemeni%20Honey%20Production-_-In%20the%20Shadow%20of%20Hezbollah-Israel%20Escalation%25252C%20Poll%20Shows%20Slim%20Majority%20of%20Lebanese%20Still%20Want%20Focus%20on%20Domestic%20Reforms%20over%20%5Cu201CForeign%20Wars%5Cu201D"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">poll</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> results are significant with
Hezbollah and Israel engaged in tit-for-tat cross border attacks that both
parties have sought to contain but could spin out of control at any moment.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hezbollah
has wanted to contain the hostilities because a majority of Lebanese oppose
their country becoming embroiled in a war, particularly with Prime Minister
Binyamin Netanyahu warning that Israel could </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/8/netanyahu-threatens-hezbollah-after-cross-border-attack-kills-civilian"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">turn Beirut into another Gaza</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the final
analysis, the poll, conducted in late November and early December by The
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, suggested that public support for
Iranian-backed militants was on the rise.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The poll
further indicated that the majority of Lebanese opposed to increased military
engagement in support of Gaza is fragile.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Various
factors could upset the apple cart. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">These
include an unintended escalation of the border hostilities sparked by a large
number of civilian casualties, repeated Israeli targeted killings on Lebanese
soil of prominent Hezbollah and Hamas figures, a potential International Court
of Justice ruling asserting that Israel’s military campaign in Gaza risks
genocide in a case submitted by South Africa, and the fallout of Prime Minister
Binyamin Netanyahu </span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68025945"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">rejecting the creation of an
independent Palestinian state</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> and insisting that Israel would maintain control of
territory conquered in the 1967 Middle East war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEge4h-Hj9fWz0aB3fekXwKxE5VN0jllj1fsjk3CH4J2TDZk4kdztphwzAtNF9sx8ZZB1bHiaPFB92jAUt4EW8Yr9bhSU_WVUHcLLaRu2xH9B7mHdiBoUbQai28DOIS7FnUXxEAiS647sICq1EAEShZ2xyQPlG0tluIell9b1vKA8q19savXbHXor0rvN8s/s624/Netanyahu-No%20state.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="391" data-original-width="624" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEge4h-Hj9fWz0aB3fekXwKxE5VN0jllj1fsjk3CH4J2TDZk4kdztphwzAtNF9sx8ZZB1bHiaPFB92jAUt4EW8Yr9bhSU_WVUHcLLaRu2xH9B7mHdiBoUbQai28DOIS7FnUXxEAiS647sICq1EAEShZ2xyQPlG0tluIell9b1vKA8q19savXbHXor0rvN8s/s320/Netanyahu-No%20state.jpg" width="320" /></a></div></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu. Photo: Tomer Neuberg/Flash90<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">"</span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68025945"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This is a necessary condition</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, and it conflicts with the idea of
(Palestinian) sovereignty. What to do? I tell this truth to our American
friends, and I also stopped the attempt to impose a reality on us that would
harm Israel's security," Mr. Netanyahu said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“Every area
that we evacuate we receive terrible terror against us. It happened in South
Lebanon, in Gaza, and also in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank] which we did it.
And therefore I clarify that in any other arrangement, in the future, the state
of Israel has to control the entire area </span><a href="https://newrepublic.com/post/178243/benjamin-netanyahu-literally-says-from-the-river-to-the-sea"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">from the river to the sea</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,” Mr. Netanyahu said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The poll showed
that only a slim majority of Lebanese, 53 per cent, prioritised addressing
their country’s political and economic crisis above becoming embroiled in a
“foreign war.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">An identical
slim majority, 53 per cent, believed resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
required negotiations rather than a military solution.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even so, a
vast majority postulated that Israeli weakness and internal divisions meant
that Israel ultimately can be defeated.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtHvHoyANH4OLiBc4XPtFOd_bwVDBTYFlFMMyKCJxffAAnGb0awEN_fji3Exf6lerlOZ7TgkLARuGDjSLAFMMq1Aiu2rVbSvWJf0v0Lt2GhGRA80cmSPVeSb38d7uwTnI0C1c0sdR-U_lsFSi3f-lWaH-BUkkCejbNG6ORDJgydG7IL5GH_3jj4rPaG3Q/s640/WINEP%20Poll-1%20jan%202024.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="395" data-original-width="640" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtHvHoyANH4OLiBc4XPtFOd_bwVDBTYFlFMMyKCJxffAAnGb0awEN_fji3Exf6lerlOZ7TgkLARuGDjSLAFMMq1Aiu2rVbSvWJf0v0Lt2GhGRA80cmSPVeSb38d7uwTnI0C1c0sdR-U_lsFSi3f-lWaH-BUkkCejbNG6ORDJgydG7IL5GH_3jj4rPaG3Q/s320/WINEP%20Poll-1%20jan%202024.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">At the same
time, Lebanese were unanimous, 99 per cent, in wanting Arab states to break all
ties to Israel because of the Gaza war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hezbollah is
likely to take heart from significant increases in its popularity across
denominations with Shiite Muslims, Sunni Muslims, and Christians each
accounting for roughly one third of Lebanon’s population.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Eight-nine
per cent of Shiites had a “very positive” view of Hezbollah up from 66 per cent
in 2020. Hezbollah’s popularity among Sunnis who had at least a “somewhat
positive” attitude towards the group jumped from six per cent in 2020 to 34 per
cent, while 29 per cent of Christians expressed a similar opinion compared to
16 per cent in 2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDIXj2AqvkLuoxwc0xZn2O5LPbL94cSQntLMwPfKVdTths-Y-4eX2t9S5uyYMa889AL2zp4mWrysGonwCR4mwKoJ2l4859qv2Km9zFof4jBGOz89ojzpJIoZmQhah6pZ8vni_eOeCGWf4mqf7b8foRhZzQkBPgGPdI32BnncBnV9NUiPmv_mvJimEXPLg/s640/WINEP%20Poll-2%20Jan%202024.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="387" data-original-width="640" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDIXj2AqvkLuoxwc0xZn2O5LPbL94cSQntLMwPfKVdTths-Y-4eX2t9S5uyYMa889AL2zp4mWrysGonwCR4mwKoJ2l4859qv2Km9zFof4jBGOz89ojzpJIoZmQhah6pZ8vni_eOeCGWf4mqf7b8foRhZzQkBPgGPdI32BnncBnV9NUiPmv_mvJimEXPLg/s320/WINEP%20Poll-2%20Jan%202024.png" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Similarly,
79 per cent of Lebanese viewed Hamas favourably.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr.
Netanyahu’s public rejection of a Palestinian state fit a long-standing pattern
of Middle Eastern politics in which hardliners on both sides of various divides
reinforce one another.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That may be
only the icing on Mr. Netanyahu’s cake.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr.
Netanyahu did not say anything he had not suggested over the years, which puts
the emphasis on the timing of the prime minister’s comments.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">His
reiterated rejection of a Palestinian state was designed to pacify his
ultra-nationalist and ultra-conservative coalition partners as well as stymie
US efforts to persuade Saudi Arabia to establish diplomatic relations with
Israel that emphasise a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“There is a </span><a href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-a-conversation-with-thomas-friedman/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">profound opportunity for
regionalization in the Middle East</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, in the greater Middle East, that we have not had before.
The challenge is realizing it,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told this
week’s World Economic Forum gathering of leaders in Davos.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRf9iMc9n-Bga3SgWaviSRGtLdV1YSBqAJJ1XUZvMppD-n4IVXH5l_xjl1Z0g5D9LgCXSdOuVDQBKE2Hs1mbJePHx0Arih2LDHf_NDyDleL0U2m3-0ss9EiSB-XoP9xooCtMjsWBN-SVVt75bLGPPnqF1aLEj37tgr2wqROPKzHQNeAi0JTGVunEy24DE/s1872/Blinken%20WEF.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1247" data-original-width="1872" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRf9iMc9n-Bga3SgWaviSRGtLdV1YSBqAJJ1XUZvMppD-n4IVXH5l_xjl1Z0g5D9LgCXSdOuVDQBKE2Hs1mbJePHx0Arih2LDHf_NDyDleL0U2m3-0ss9EiSB-XoP9xooCtMjsWBN-SVVt75bLGPPnqF1aLEj37tgr2wqROPKzHQNeAi0JTGVunEy24DE/s320/Blinken%20WEF.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">U.S. Secretary of
State Antony Blinken gestures during his speech at the Annual Meeting of World
Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2024. The annual
meeting of the World Economic Forum is taking place in Davos from Jan. 15 until
Jan. 19, 2024. Photo: AP/Markus Schreiber<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The United
States needs regionalization for Arab buy-in to post-war arrangements in Gaza
and the West Bank which is unlikely to be forthcoming without the prospect of a
credible peace process.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Speaking at
the Davos forum, Israeli President Isaac Herzog described relations with Saudi
Arabia as a gamechanger and a </span><a href="https://apnews.com/article/davos-israel-herzog-openai-altman-773e21a96baff820d27e7f2c0211f34a"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">key to ending the Gaza war</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUykBVDyxq780olToyLxChikd04fTIU9m8n7kUPlsJZaPE5PswHlkO3Vl94fbReH5vY19rfkocjL3y9-b2j0-d3bSzZHcuE3MPozZLadhrxUEew8e4Q58Z40Cf7h7zB9AmtZtMpBXjAHrzOvCK8hypS80ID3K-nyg1kN2SYPjdWka6G5euPge0HntB_OU/s624/Herzog_WEF.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="390" data-original-width="624" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUykBVDyxq780olToyLxChikd04fTIU9m8n7kUPlsJZaPE5PswHlkO3Vl94fbReH5vY19rfkocjL3y9-b2j0-d3bSzZHcuE3MPozZLadhrxUEew8e4Q58Z40Cf7h7zB9AmtZtMpBXjAHrzOvCK8hypS80ID3K-nyg1kN2SYPjdWka6G5euPge0HntB_OU/s320/Herzog_WEF.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">President Isaac
Herzog speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Jan. 18, 2024,
alongside a photo of Hamas-held Israeli hostage Kfir Bibas. (Amos Ben
Gershom/GPO)<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">However, that
remains a pipedream with the current Israeli government. Moreover, the problem
is that a new Israeli government may not have the sharp edges of Mr.
Netanyahu’s ultra-nationalists and ultra-conservatives but may be equally
unwilling to make the kind of concessions required for a credible peace
process.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Former Saudi
intelligence chief and ambassador to the United States and Britain Turki al
Faisal, who is believed to be close to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, </span><a href="https://twitter.com/amanpour/status/1747983854034456679"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">appeared to echo that sentiment</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> and take it a step further.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“The present
leadership of Hamas, of the PLO, and of Israel should be excluded from any
participation in any future political role They have to pay for what they have
done… All of them are failures,” Mr. Al Faisal told CNN’s Christane Amanpour.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Responding
to Mr. Netanyahu’s rejection, US President Joe Biden, wittingly or unwittingly,
noted that a two-state solution means different things to different people. The
president suggested a two-state solution could involve </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-discussed-developments-israel-gaza-with-netanyahu-white-house-says-2024-01-19/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">a demilitarised Palestinian state</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> that would be more palatable for
Israeli hardliners.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZeTQumAsYtFfpDHf5R5du7h-pHo52Mwl0kVGPro2vvy2PdKz866GxvSGedc5FbqBBEedh8QBXr2LRicYGPUkkVoW4WIOC-PRllwMfwbrFp_nijmIE4DMPkiUT2-n1Dj9NAzR155Vs8zOTrTQdin99_wRGOlDf8_v9P4TOD4sn9uK-xreqEKPeAjB4ItQ/s1950/Biden.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1300" data-original-width="1950" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZeTQumAsYtFfpDHf5R5du7h-pHo52Mwl0kVGPro2vvy2PdKz866GxvSGedc5FbqBBEedh8QBXr2LRicYGPUkkVoW4WIOC-PRllwMfwbrFp_nijmIE4DMPkiUT2-n1Dj9NAzR155Vs8zOTrTQdin99_wRGOlDf8_v9P4TOD4sn9uK-xreqEKPeAjB4ItQ/s320/Biden.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">US President Biden.
Photo: Tayfun Coşkun – Anadolu Agency<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That has
long been Israel’s often unspoken definition across the country’s political
spectrum with few exceptions, reinforced by Hamas’ October 7 attack in which 1,100
people, mostly civilians were killed.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The problem
is that Israeli security concerns about Palestinians are a mirror-image of
Palestinian security concerns about Israel after more than half a century of
occupation and the current Gaza carnage, likely making demilitarization a
non-starter for Palestinians.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For his
part, Mr. Netanyahu feels emboldened by </span><a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/547763/biden-ends-2023-job-approval.aspx"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Biden’s poor polling</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> in an election year, </span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67422238"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">solid Republican support</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> for Israel, and his past ability to </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/fox-news-anchors-skewer-netanyahu-over-obama-snub/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">counter a US President domestically
in the United States</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">At the same
time, Mr. Netanyahu bolstered with his comments the credibility of Iran’s opposition
to Arab states normalizing relations with Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Iranian
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei cautioned days before Hamas’ October 7
attack on Israel that </span><a href="https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/the-politics-of-saudi-and-iranian"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">normalisation of relations with
Israel amounted to "gambling" that was "doomed to failure."</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> He warned that countries
establishing relations with the Jewish state would be "in harm's
way."<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnFQdxmSojhTukqg5QEfR95fmPe0xFd9jvbEfNWw7ocYXJrShhv8UmNV9jrJUnRpigQTlfvWIat_u2PGS0sn-ivJq1q7gzY7qaGw-4TbI2iLgs__A4t7A9MyIW4zDiNNL5gPeUED9ZRX4qy9OhhgQTM0qy93AMcv1cdl-72igAxzKIB4p5ug3JMvT8_J4/s1448/Khamenei.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1448" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnFQdxmSojhTukqg5QEfR95fmPe0xFd9jvbEfNWw7ocYXJrShhv8UmNV9jrJUnRpigQTlfvWIat_u2PGS0sn-ivJq1q7gzY7qaGw-4TbI2iLgs__A4t7A9MyIW4zDiNNL5gPeUED9ZRX4qy9OhhgQTM0qy93AMcv1cdl-72igAxzKIB4p5ug3JMvT8_J4/s320/Khamenei.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Iran’s supreme leader,
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaks during a meeting in Tehran. Office of the
Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA/Reuters<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Events since
October 7 have reinforced Iran’s sense that the winds of Middle Eastern
geopolitics are blowing in its favour.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel’s
conduct in the Gaza war has drawn </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/non-aligned-movement-leaders-denounce-israels-military-campaign-gaza-2024-01-19/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">criticism from much of the
international community</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, except for the United States and several European countries. A
potential international court ruling would deepen the dent in Israel’s moral
standing inflicted by the war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In
Switzerland, </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/swiss-prosecutors-say-criminal-complaint-filed-against-visiting-president-herzog/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">prosecutors said they were
investigating unspecified criminal complaints against Mr. Herzog</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> as he attended the World Economic Forum. It was unclear
whether the complaint was related to his remarks at the Forum or to past
remarks or actions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Herzog
was cited in South Africa’s international court case as suggesting that all Gazans
were responsible for Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In addition,
Iran’s non-state allies complicate affairs for Israel and the United States.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">More than
three months into the war, Israel has yet to achieve its goals of destroying Hamas
and liberating the remaining 139 Hamas-held hostages abducted during the
October 7 fighting, including the bodies of those since killed in Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">While not
directly involving Iranian non-state allies, </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/18/israeli-west-bank-strikes-gaza-death-toll-palestine-war-hamas"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">mounting tensions on the West Bank</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> where Israeli raids and clashes with
Palestinian fighters threaten to mushroom into an insurgency, strengthen Iran’s
hardline position.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Meanwhile, Hezbollah,
backed by Iran, has forced </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/about-200000-israelis-internally-displaced-amid-ongoing-gaza-war-tensions-in-north/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">100,000 Israelis to evacuate northern
Israel</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> and has tied
down a substantial number of Israeli forces along the border.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Iran-supported
Yemeni Houthi rebels have </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/escalating-red-sea-tensions-and-citizen-boycotts-trap-us-in-catch-22"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">trapped the United States in a
Catch-22</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> with
attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Finally, Iranian
missile strikes in the last week in Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan reflect Iran’s
sense of having the upper hand rather than an intention to escalate regional
tensions. They signal Iran’s willingness to defend itself, even if it does not
want to see Gaza escalate into a regional conflagration.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The strikes
were in response to attacks on Iranian targets, including </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/11/iran-identifies-suspected-bomb-maker-behind-twin-blasts-arrests-35-people"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Islamic State bombings in the city of
Kerman</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> that killed
94 people, the </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/iranians-chant-death-to-israel-at-funeral-of-commander-allegedly-killed-by-israel/#:~:text=Iranian%20state%20media%20says%20Mousavi,near%20the%20Syrian%20capital%20Damascus."><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">assassination in Syria of a senior
Revolutionary Guard commander</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, and an </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/11-iranian-police-killed-in-jihadist-attack-state-tv-says/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">attack on an Iranian police station</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> by a Pakistan-based jihadist group.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Overall, the
different hot spots suggest that hardliners are calling the shots for now.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Without a
halt to the fighting in Gaza, containing the various flashpoints and preventing
them from spinning out of control increasingly is becoming mission impossible.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Said US
foreign policy scholar Christopher S Chivvis: “In a situation where emotions
are running high thanks to the appalling violence in Gaza, with hawks in
Washington eager to dole out hellfire and brimstone on Tehran, and the global
economy at stake, it will be even harder to exercise restraint and avoid a
broader regional war </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/22/risk-war-middle-east-biden-israel-hamas"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">– the worst-case outcome for American
interests</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk156638575"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct
Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i></a><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Turbulent World with James M.
Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div></div>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-29113332004249088702024-01-17T12:47:00.004+08:002024-01-17T12:47:52.304+08:00A casualty of war<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiE6KA2WEadY2YbJgUtXg8cbYqtoKUpPyWnKadwxAXuaknQ_LFehgqRAMU7i9TD7WrfmNu6Wz8p1jJvPds_QWqwQ8Pu0qoVPtSKBTFyRGN4tpCrNMOoHw3eZUJVf_TG0dFGiqrT1hY4T-ezdmSiaQdd5vTLP-lLzuaQhn28R7z7eWtWnki1y2J3nh6CYs/s1280/Casualty%20of%20War.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiE6KA2WEadY2YbJgUtXg8cbYqtoKUpPyWnKadwxAXuaknQ_LFehgqRAMU7i9TD7WrfmNu6Wz8p1jJvPds_QWqwQ8Pu0qoVPtSKBTFyRGN4tpCrNMOoHw3eZUJVf_TG0dFGiqrT1hY4T-ezdmSiaQdd5vTLP-lLzuaQhn28R7z7eWtWnki1y2J3nh6CYs/s320/Casualty%20of%20War.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By James M.
Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
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<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To watch a video version of
this story on YouTube please click</span></em><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></em><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://youtu.be/BcP1_ZD1_yY"><span style="font-style: normal;">here</span></a>. </span></em><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An audio podcast is available on </span></em></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/a-casualty-of-war" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud</span></em></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.</span></u></em></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israeli
footballer Sagiv Yehezkel was </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-01-15/ty-article/israeli-soccer-player-arrested-in-turkey-for-celebrating-goal-with-tribute-to-hostages/0000018d-0c0f-d71c-ad9f-4f8f416e0000"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">deported from Turkey</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> this week after being detained by
police and fired by Super Lig club Antalyaspor for expressing support during a
soccer match for more than 100 hostages kidnapped by Hamas during its October 7
attack on Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLYmyB3mhoihjCeSe-wUYTwiTRARExuYqUhsGd-frhyphenhyphengjTL5STM_zclDlksfbhAPAFgY4oLFSb0lbRC_zVNzro4cJZGE5v0VEAWDf5sI54i-PbXMTzrTlqmjoe-lI99X-oFnqSQsyYS6DGLHUZoHpYayg7cyRQ1sv8fOiQZg4wEN2b9UnHJNHxpf_XRMk/s624/Sagiv%20Yehezkel.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLYmyB3mhoihjCeSe-wUYTwiTRARExuYqUhsGd-frhyphenhyphengjTL5STM_zclDlksfbhAPAFgY4oLFSb0lbRC_zVNzro4cJZGE5v0VEAWDf5sI54i-PbXMTzrTlqmjoe-lI99X-oFnqSQsyYS6DGLHUZoHpYayg7cyRQ1sv8fOiQZg4wEN2b9UnHJNHxpf_XRMk/s320/Sagiv%20Yehezkel.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Sagiv Jehezkel points to a message that says "100 days, 7.10" -- a reference to Israeli hostages held in Gaza -- after scoring for Antalyaspor.</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A second
Israeli player, 23-year-old Eden Kartsev, </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/second-israeli-soccer-player-runs-foul-of-turkish-feelings-with-support-for-hostages/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">awaits a similar fate</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> after his club, Istanbul
Bashakshehir, said it was investigating him for "violating the
sensibilities of the country" by reposting on X, formerly known as Twitter,
an image with the hashtag "BringThemHomeNow.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Assuming Mr.
Kartsev will also be deported, Ramzi Safuri, a Palestinian Israeli, who plays
for Antalyaspor alongside 28-year-old Mr. Yehezkel, will be the last Israeli
footballer standing in Turkey. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Bashkakshehir
maintains close ties with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP), staunch Hamas supporters. Mr. Erdogan has </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-says-hamas-is-not-terrorist-organisation-2023-10-25/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">described Hamas as a “liberation
group.”</span></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The hashtag
is the slogan of a movement, driven by the hostages’ families, demanding that
Israel prioritise the release of the hostages above pursuit of the Gaza war.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel’s
more than three-month-long devasting campaign against Gaza has so far failed to
militarily free the hostages. In November, Israel achieved </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/30/hamas-hostages-list-names-tracker-israel-gaza/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">the release of more than 100 hostages</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> in exchange for 240 Palestinians
held in Israeli prisons during a ceasefire mediated by Qatar.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A senior US
official, Brett McGurk, visited Qatar in recent days for </span><a href="https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2024/01/16/White-House-says-top-aide-in-Doha-to-discuss-Gaza-hostages"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“very serious and intensive
discussions”</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> on a
possible new prisoner exchange deal, White House national security spokesperson
John Kirby said on Tuesday.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8D-L6i4TMmt28Lqs57BcUQ2HhpW0a2ElT-MO2ppG5w2cbigwZjlAiX-dFhJ8SL6YLtwuGxfwRU-ru20JGTtLjpwS5ziqFzFwR1EVR10bhhQyYa2PjyirSCKpobOExVpfbDv9uKVGQK664bQT9c-RSCClqlCZ1G6SeldG2kqt4wGjcWy5L3for1LR4wi4/s624/John%20Kirby.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="403" data-original-width="624" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8D-L6i4TMmt28Lqs57BcUQ2HhpW0a2ElT-MO2ppG5w2cbigwZjlAiX-dFhJ8SL6YLtwuGxfwRU-ru20JGTtLjpwS5ziqFzFwR1EVR10bhhQyYa2PjyirSCKpobOExVpfbDv9uKVGQK664bQT9c-RSCClqlCZ1G6SeldG2kqt4wGjcWy5L3for1LR4wi4/s320/John%20Kirby.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Senior US official,
Brett McGurk. Photo: Mandel Ngan Via Getty Images<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Meanwhile,
Qatar and France brokered a deal for the </span><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/16/middleeast/gaza-hostages-medicine-deal-qatar-intl/index.html"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">exchange of medicine for the hostages
in return for the increased entry into Gaza of medical supplies and
humanitarian aid</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><i><span style="font-size: x-small;"></span></i></div></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Turkey’s
backing of Hamas is likely one reason why it, unlike Qatar and Egypt, the two
other Middle Eastern states with links to the group, has not played a role in
efforts to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza war and the freeing of hostages.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hamas
released a video on Monday that appeared to show </span><a href="file:///C:/Users/jmdor/Documents/Blog/Hamas%20appeared%20to%20show%20the%20dead%20bodies%20of%20two%20Israeli%20hostages%20on%20Monday%20after%20warning%20Israel%20they%20might%20be%20killed%20if%20it%20did%20not%20stop%20its%20bombardment%20of%20Gaza."><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">the dead bodies of two hostages</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> after warning Israel they might be
killed if it did not stop its bombardment of Gaza. An Israeli military
spokesman denied the hostages were killed in air strikes targeting Hamas.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Turkey’s
disciplinary action against the Israeli players raises troubling questions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It suggests
Turkey cares about Gaza’s human carnage caused by Israel’s indiscriminate
bombing of the Strip but not about the lives of innocent Israelis. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">To be fair,
a </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-07/ty-article/.premium/israeli-civilians-and-soldiers-held-hostage-in-gaza-army-spokesperson-says/0000018b-0ac3-dae3-a1cb-bfcb54c90000"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“substantial” number</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> of the remaining hostages are
Israeli military personnel. Even so, Hamas videos released since the November
exchange have featured mostly women and elderly captives.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By
disciplining the Israeli players on political grounds rather than by invoking
world soccer body </span><a href="https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-fifas-double-standards-mean-rules-on-no-politics-should-be-ripped-up/a-64024553"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">FIFA’s banning of political
expressions on the pitch</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, Turkey punctured one more hole in international sports associations’
fiction that sports and politics are separate rather than Siamese twins
inseparably joined at the hip.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Ironically,
the Turkish Football Federation last month </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/30/turkey-super-cup-final-in-saudi-arabia-called-off-amid-ataturk-t-shirt-row"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">cancelled a Super Lig final</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> between clubs Galatasaray and
Fenerbahce scheduled to be played in Riyadh after Saudi authorities banned
players from wearing jerseys portraying Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the visionary
who carved modern Turkey out of the ruins of the Ottoman empire.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFknx-9a12jUzawfoH3oNY3_6wx8g4usaV_dAxcXeIZwCnZLgGcCn7A-IxbQdGZdO28PAT0Bxr1BwTMOYxEhyx4CsYK_KAU-BXEsEv7VAdltz164vGMfiVdRE5lIPeVCS1mdh0Rw_f3Hcjjy6xmmp-ggSpDLd-Xg559FIY8R7KY7UkbhmzLhS87pm5AOU/s641/Galatasaray.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="641" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFknx-9a12jUzawfoH3oNY3_6wx8g4usaV_dAxcXeIZwCnZLgGcCn7A-IxbQdGZdO28PAT0Bxr1BwTMOYxEhyx4CsYK_KAU-BXEsEv7VAdltz164vGMfiVdRE5lIPeVCS1mdh0Rw_f3Hcjjy6xmmp-ggSpDLd-Xg559FIY8R7KY7UkbhmzLhS87pm5AOU/s320/Galatasaray.png" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; letter-spacing: -.15pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Galatasaray‘s Kerem Akturkoglu, right, challenges for the ball
with Fenerbahce‘s Alexander Djiku, during a Turkish Super Lig match
between Fenerbahce and Galatasaray at Sukru Saracoglu stadium in
Istanbul, Turkey, Sunday, Dec. 24, 2023. Photo: AP</span></i><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
disciplinary actions touch on one more major casualty of the Gaza war beyond
the </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/14/israel-vows-not-to-stop-as-gaza-death-toll-nears-24000-on-day-100-of-war"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">shocking 24,000 Gazan death toll</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, including </span><a href="https://www.palestinechronicle.com/this-is-how-many-palestinian-footballers-athletes-israel-killed-since-oct-7-report/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">55 footballers</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">; the hostages; and the </span><a href="https://www.newarab.com/news/west-bank-over-5800-palestinians-detained-100-days"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">mass Israeli arrests of West Bank
Palestinians</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">:
freedom of expression.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Irrespective
of one’s attitude towards the Gaza war, disciplining the Israeli players
amounts to curtailing their freedom of expression. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That is no
surprise. Turkey is the </span><a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/number-of-journalists-jailed-in-turkey-doubles-report-finds-/6878284.html"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">fourth most prolific jailer of
journalists</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> globally
behind Iran, China and Myanmar. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even so, the
disciplinary measures are part of a global crackdown stretching from Israel and
the United States into Europe on freedom of speech accelerated by the Gaza war
but shaped long before Hamas’ October 7 attack by Israel and its supporters </span><a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/society/ihra-definition-antisemitism/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">seeking to label criticism of the
Jewish state as anti-Semitism</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel and
pro-Israeli groups have skillfully exploited a blurring of the lines between
anti-Zionist, anti-Israel, and anti-Semitic expression to try to squash
criticism of Israel while ignoring, if not encouraging blatant racist and dehumanizing
anti-Palestinian language.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Increasingly,
the upshot is a clampdown on free speech in democracies in which calls for a Gaza
ceasefire and an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel are denounced as
anti-Semitism.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Public
outrage in Europe has defeated </span><a href="https://jewishcurrents.org/an-anti-palestinian-crackdown-across-europe"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">attempts in countries like France,
Germany, and Austria to ban pro-Palestinian protests,</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> the waving of Palestinian flags,
and/or the wearing of a keffiyeh, the chequered black-and-white scarf that symbolises
Palestinian nationalism.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Similarly,
Israeli far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/police-deny-permit-for-anti-war-protest-left-wing-groups-vow-high-court-appeal/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">failed to ban anti-war protests</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> organised by a minority of Israelis
opposed to the assault on Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2GJ5V5Z2B1KjSwliYWfHe8RC9ZlVJXcMTzyfx-jzCGlp1Gl7lsFVq0-Wr6igvDN3ahSGYnYBmEJUi6Iu8U6VqSSCjuG3tKVJNmgg52jKoD_V5k-r7J-7Er2NC6RJiE8YLiRjkBoD8L5WpeGP9acqlAFgAERHRVm-wSNcnNyrmB-2PYWIdIkweQ7lh4zo/s624/Ben%20Gvir.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="451" data-original-width="624" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2GJ5V5Z2B1KjSwliYWfHe8RC9ZlVJXcMTzyfx-jzCGlp1Gl7lsFVq0-Wr6igvDN3ahSGYnYBmEJUi6Iu8U6VqSSCjuG3tKVJNmgg52jKoD_V5k-r7J-7Er2NC6RJiE8YLiRjkBoD8L5WpeGP9acqlAFgAERHRVm-wSNcnNyrmB-2PYWIdIkweQ7lh4zo/s320/Ben%20Gvir.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Itamar Ben-Gvir
speaking to the press ahead of a weekly cabinet meeting, Jerusalem, March 19,
2023. Photo: Abir Sultan—POOL/AFP/Getty Images<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The war has sparked
debates in multiple democracies on the right to peaceful protest, with the
media and human rights organisations weighing-in on the repercussions of
silencing war critics.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the
United States, the clampdown has involved censorship, putting </span><a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/15/1219434298/israel-hamas-gaza-palestinians-college-campus-free-speech"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">college campuses at the centre of a
debate on free speech</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
and what constitutes anti-Semitism. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In December</span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/05/world/middleeast/house-anti-zionism-antisemitism.html"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, a US House of Representatives
resolution</span></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,</span></span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> adopted by a wide margin, equated anti-Zionism to anti-Semitism. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Thirty-seven
of the 50 US states have passed legislation </span><a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230707-new-hampshire-becomes-37th-us-state-to-ban-boycott-of-israel/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">banning state offices from investing
in or doing business with companies that support the Boycott, Divestment and
Sanctions (BDS) movement</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> in what amounts to curtailing freedom of choice. Various states have
incorporated the ban in their contracts.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho6tHm4CNRQiUmd5XDU-U1gsnO-iIyIQ4Su_YIUQehBCSUxLFUGA3VQzmCBTV4ck0S5aDBqNDYsssOriK7cHsruFMiP-2PUMNyhMg29MbA-VbpxuriAtH5qCxZOzdIo2rvaQ8-HWwoAk-vTbYyJIU67_KVw6OEOC__gT0zkgs_sY6wKcQZAmbL7D1vQCM/s624/BDS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="312" data-original-width="624" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho6tHm4CNRQiUmd5XDU-U1gsnO-iIyIQ4Su_YIUQehBCSUxLFUGA3VQzmCBTV4ck0S5aDBqNDYsssOriK7cHsruFMiP-2PUMNyhMg29MbA-VbpxuriAtH5qCxZOzdIo2rvaQ8-HWwoAk-vTbYyJIU67_KVw6OEOC__gT0zkgs_sY6wKcQZAmbL7D1vQCM/s320/BDS.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">BDS protest in
Montreal, Canada. Photo: Tadamon.ca<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/editorial/2023-11-14/ty-article-opinion/israel-is-using-arrests-to-silence-domestic-dissent-over-gaza/0000018b-ca79-d8c7-a59b-df79a2440000"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Germany’s parliament</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> passed a resolution in 2019
denouncing BDS as anti-Semitic.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Inspired by
the South African anti-apartheid movement, BDS campaigns for boycotting Israeli
products imported from occupied Palestinian lands and embargoing and divesting
from companies doing business in occupied territory.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">To be sure
anti-Semitism is on the rise as is anti-Muslim sentiment since October 7.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The New
York-based Anti-Defamation League reported </span><a href="https://www.adl.org/resources/press-release/adl-records-dramatic-increase-us-antisemitic-incidents-following-oct-7"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">anti-Semitic incidents had risen by 388
per cent</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> in the first
two weeks of the war, compared with the same period last year.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Council
on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) said requests for help and </span><a href="https://www.cair.com/press_releases/cair-received-staggering-2171-complaints-over-past-two-months-as-islamophobia-anti-palestinian-hate-spin-out-of-control/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">reports of anti-Palestinian and
anti-Muslim bias increased by 172 per cent</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> in the first two months of the war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In Israel, </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/13/it-is-a-time-of-witch-hunts-in-israel-teacher-held-in-solitary-confinement-for-posting-concern-about-gaza-deaths"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Meir Baruchin</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, a history and civics teacher, was
fired from his job, investigated for intent to commit treason, and put in
solitary confinement in Jerusalem’s notorious Russian Compound prison for
Facebook posts mourning Gaza civilians killed, criticising the Israeli
military, and warning against wars of revenge.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israeli rights
groups and lawyers say a crackdown on speech has resulted in </span><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-gaza-war-free-speech/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">scores</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> being fired from their jobs,
disciplined or expelled from their universities, and even arrested, often for
posts on social media in support of Palestinians or critical of Israel's
operations in Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“Make no
mistake: Baruchin was used as a political tool to send a political
message. The motive for his arrest was deterrence – </span><a href="https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/editorial/2023-11-14/ty-article-opinion/israel-is-using-arrests-to-silence-domestic-dissent-over-gaza/0000018b-ca79-d8c7-a59b-df79a2440000"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">silencing any criticism or any hint
of protest</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> against
Israeli policy,” Israel’s Haaretz newspaper said in an editorial.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The
Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-44960183131305072142024-01-14T15:17:00.005+08:002024-01-14T15:17:59.662+08:00Escalating Red Sea tensions and citizen boycotts trap US in Catch-22.<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitbkDTG-uGteMla0ZQFwXVvnHHfwO9ETU8PugCE_uIj2NQ_J_zGthJu4Uq4pZgcoZb4z2LZ_9XOuDm7m63hyphenhyphenCXr51WD-PoMRiNUWORyCkU9FbqGhwFNwjvAPxADz9A3UxIDc4fgY-7emsUcaCyY12JY9D6wtNWgOAIPNvutTeUoWiFuOxx8_c1FPvg728/s1280/Red%20Sea%20tensions.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitbkDTG-uGteMla0ZQFwXVvnHHfwO9ETU8PugCE_uIj2NQ_J_zGthJu4Uq4pZgcoZb4z2LZ_9XOuDm7m63hyphenhyphenCXr51WD-PoMRiNUWORyCkU9FbqGhwFNwjvAPxADz9A3UxIDc4fgY-7emsUcaCyY12JY9D6wtNWgOAIPNvutTeUoWiFuOxx8_c1FPvg728/s320/Red%20Sea%20tensions.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By James M.
Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
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<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To watch a video version of
this story on YouTube please click</span></em><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://youtu.be/kKsFoSdio28" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"> here.</span></em></a></span><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An audio podcast is available
on </span></em></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/escalating-red-sea-tensions-and-citizen-boycotts-trap-us-in-catch-22" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud.</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Increasingly,
the United States is caught in a Catch-22 with tension mounting in the Red Sea,
Israel maintaining unabated its assault on the Gaza Strip, and the
International Court of Justice (ICJ) possibly ruling that Israel may be
committing genocide.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A court
ruling against Israel would bolster Yemen’s Houthi rebels who assert that
attacks on Israel-related shipping are justified under the Convention on the
Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. The convention obligates
signatories to pursue the enforcement of the genocide prohibition.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAmMJVu3K5nLhsQ8Sp5lyKA7lpi_puh_n6LxtZUqkcMUEqvr_RcvJYQ9iE1Kcj2r804m6y9EzmMEBZOYzSIbOzC7r3rV1t1H4Uw-yA9qLB1zshwHOZUbuBDA_RnhaSY5uBcjey3ksYqQLVCOTNRSsJcZ6Lb4KAUpdd-53fOVHcYXmat9bN0tJ7jYFqEdg/s468/Houthi%20shipping.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAmMJVu3K5nLhsQ8Sp5lyKA7lpi_puh_n6LxtZUqkcMUEqvr_RcvJYQ9iE1Kcj2r804m6y9EzmMEBZOYzSIbOzC7r3rV1t1H4Uw-yA9qLB1zshwHOZUbuBDA_RnhaSY5uBcjey3ksYqQLVCOTNRSsJcZ6Lb4KAUpdd-53fOVHcYXmat9bN0tJ7jYFqEdg/s320/Houthi%20shipping.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="line-height: 107%;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">A Houthi military
helicopter flies over the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo
released Monday. Photo: Houthi Military Media via Reuters<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The obligation
constituted the basis for </span><a href="https://www.icj-cij.org/node/203394"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">South Africa’s case against Israel</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> before the ICJ.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Houthis,
who control much of Yemen, including the capital, Sanaa, base their
justification on Yemen being a party to the convention, even if their
government has not been internationally recognised.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Britain
challenged the Houthis’ legal reasoning in a </span><a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/summary-of-the-uk-government-legal-position-the-legality-of-uk-military-action-to-target-houthi-facilities-in-yemen/summary-of-the-uk-government-legal-position-the-legality-of-uk-military-action-to-target-houthi-facilities-in-yemen"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">policy paper</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, insisting that the decision to
strike the Houthis, together with the United States, was “lawfully taken.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The paper
argued that Britain was “permitted under international law to use force in such
circumstances where acting in self-defence is the only feasible means to deal
with an actual or imminent armed attack and where the force used is necessary
and proportionate.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The United
States and Britain </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-warns-more-strikes-yemens-houthis-if-red-sea-attacks-persist-2024-01-13/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">twice this week hit Houthi military
targets</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> in
retaliation for Houthi attacks on Gulf shipping and US and UK naval vessels in
Gulf waters.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9WCmBYT1GUeVOGuqgvdfXuNxCikvYly6FRdOp-E_U-jbwCN68kOn7RHpx8hkKYaooxWwEXKtIA_VdIiJNyZPdoFFAEGXntXHQu6cAGRqIzp1Q7YDlgcGzKWsTIJO29pRJ_v9NvylmwIND-GKIcp_BS4S5lkJ7t4EGLydFDLbwbWfGBsKBv45nENodM90/s1950/RAF%20Houthis.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1300" data-original-width="1950" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9WCmBYT1GUeVOGuqgvdfXuNxCikvYly6FRdOp-E_U-jbwCN68kOn7RHpx8hkKYaooxWwEXKtIA_VdIiJNyZPdoFFAEGXntXHQu6cAGRqIzp1Q7YDlgcGzKWsTIJO29pRJ_v9NvylmwIND-GKIcp_BS4S5lkJ7t4EGLydFDLbwbWfGBsKBv45nENodM90/s320/RAF%20Houthis.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">An RAF Typhoon
aircraft takes off to join the US-led coalition from RAF Akrotiri to conduct
air strikes against military targets in Yemen, aimed at the Iran-backed Houthi
militia that has been targeting international shipping in the Red Sea, in
Cyprus, in this handout picture released on January 12, 2024. Photo: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UK MOD <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>via <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>REUTERS<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhxOnQiT3TN8A6d8F6mXYzygV1cuyL0xsdOof-VyTE-NKumNPIrsDPr98fmVJcJlBPA1RCSsgo8UApdIw_yAvXqkn6HZKUfqUhZAy8HO94sMZQdz1XOpCeOaxfuq-23WI9KOTIi8wHTiuXoE7jCHh-AiDEzZ8o-Gude9_TVvU1QzKTUZNG973808mdtoc/s624/Gaza%20Protest%20Jakarta.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="624" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhxOnQiT3TN8A6d8F6mXYzygV1cuyL0xsdOof-VyTE-NKumNPIrsDPr98fmVJcJlBPA1RCSsgo8UApdIw_yAvXqkn6HZKUfqUhZAy8HO94sMZQdz1XOpCeOaxfuq-23WI9KOTIi8wHTiuXoE7jCHh-AiDEzZ8o-Gude9_TVvU1QzKTUZNG973808mdtoc/s320/Gaza%20Protest%20Jakarta.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Nevertheless,
the United States’ dilemma is that it is damned if it does and damned if it
doesn’t.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The US
cannot afford to fail to ensure safe and secure shipping passage in crucial
Gulf waters.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Yet, with
public opinion, regionally and internationally, critical of US support for
Israel, this week’s </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/13/us-launches-fresh-strikes-on-yemens-houthi-as-conflict-escalates"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">US and British strikes against the Houthis</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> are widely perceived as serving
Israel’s interests and threatening to turn the Gaza war into a regional
conflagration.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A court
ruling against Israel would reinforce that perception.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Public
perceptions and the threat of a regional conflagration persuaded Middle Eastern
states, with the exception of Bahrain, home to the US Fifth Fleet, to </span><a href="https://www.dw.com/en/red-sea-attacks-why-arab-nations-wont-join-naval-coalition/a-67790545"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">distance themselves from the US
efforts</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> to deter the
Houthis.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Middle
Eastern states doubt the US and UK strikes will deter the Houthis. Instead, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Without
exception, Middle Eastern states believe that only an end to hostilities in
Gaza can prevent the war from escalating regionally. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">They are
concerned that deterring the Houthis would involve a full-fledged attack that
could lead to another forever war and draw Iran into the conflagration
militarily.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In addition,
some countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates fear that they
could be targeted if they join the US.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In addition,
Saudi Arabia is concerned that an escalation of tensions in the Red Sea could
jeopardise efforts to conclude an agreement with the Houthis that would
extricate the kingdom from its nine-year military intervention in Yemen.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Houthis’
attacks on shipping resonate with protesters against the Gaza war across the
globe and supporters of the Boycott, Diversification and Sanctions (BDS)
movement that targets Israel. </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/13/pro-palestine-demonstrations-around-the-world-as-gaza-war-nears-100-days"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Thousands of BDS supporters</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> took to the streets in Malaysia and
Indonesia this weekend.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4uU-TkHHNW85PWROEDr7yqagFM4xZn9sczqc2uUXWKws60SKhBfv93pNKsBphDASTO-s2xjYFWxHdSNA4F6cBrkaNs6hWDZ3EZXLHjcN0gJYzIr8OJzCzGxcV-ShpKEzlvZZSJwjR-OEqCjgzcvnNGzyViplzi5UA5-iOM-FT5UDavlYT3ZK7IxpzPRs/s624/Gaza%20Protest%20Jakarta.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="624" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4uU-TkHHNW85PWROEDr7yqagFM4xZn9sczqc2uUXWKws60SKhBfv93pNKsBphDASTO-s2xjYFWxHdSNA4F6cBrkaNs6hWDZ3EZXLHjcN0gJYzIr8OJzCzGxcV-ShpKEzlvZZSJwjR-OEqCjgzcvnNGzyViplzi5UA5-iOM-FT5UDavlYT3ZK7IxpzPRs/s320/Gaza%20Protest%20Jakarta.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Protesters shout
slogans outside the US embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia [Dita Alangkara/Reuters]<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Unlike
Indonesia, Malaysia is one of the few countries that allows Hamas to operate
and raise funds in the country. It is also the only country, alongside the
Houthis, to target Israel-related shipping.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Last month, Malaysia
</span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/20/malaysia-bans-israeli-affiliated-and-israel-bound-ships-from-its-ports"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">banned all Israeli-flagged cargo
ships and vessels scheduled to sail to Israel</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> from docking at its ports in a response to the war in
Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even so, in
October, </span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-11/malaysia-can-t-rule-out-if-millions-in-donations-went-to-hamas"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">authorities suspended a
non-governmental group</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> that funneled donations to Hamas and froze $15 million in assets on
suspicion of misuse of funds and money laundering.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Malaysians,
like others in several countries, have boycott Western fast-food brands in
protest against the Gaza war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">In response, Saudi-owned Gerbang Alaf
Restaurants Sdn Bhd (GAR), which operates the McDonald’s franchise in Malaysia
has </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/mcdonalds-malaysia-sues-israel-boycott-movement-1-mln-damages-2023-12-30/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">sued BDS for US$1.31 million dollars in
damages</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">, asserting that the movement had made
<span style="color: #404040;">"false and defamatory statements" that
link the brand to Israel's "genocidal war against Palestinians in
Gaza." BDS has denied the assertion.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #404040; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">GAR asserted that the
boycott had led to profit loss and job cuts due to closures and shortened
operating hours of its outlets.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #404040; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">McDonald's global CEO
Chris Kempczinski conceded last week that the Gaza war was having </span><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/new-year-reimagine-mcdonalds-future-chris-kempczinski-oaauc%3FtrackingId=d2o0qoGOScKEaf9fb%252FNSMw%253D%253D/?trackingId=d2o0qoGOScKEaf9fb%2FNSMw%3D%3D"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">a "meaningful business impact" on
the company</span></a><span style="color: #404040; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwJ7XaAXTReUpLZ44x8Srb8bQXCT0pQY4B02l30gDsnb5KOJ-4kkOjmoEX8KZ08eIZcXGp6nEOJ08UxBQ79c38nugWkp2vf6ja_o56DhCxZEQ-WKG1qsSoIs5epdhiHT4qqeemIDo8kyvx47723O5WEf1nEuEjxKe10hzeIPmwqVYW-3raEH4W7ad-IZ0/s624/McDonalds%20CEO.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="624" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwJ7XaAXTReUpLZ44x8Srb8bQXCT0pQY4B02l30gDsnb5KOJ-4kkOjmoEX8KZ08eIZcXGp6nEOJ08UxBQ79c38nugWkp2vf6ja_o56DhCxZEQ-WKG1qsSoIs5epdhiHT4qqeemIDo8kyvx47723O5WEf1nEuEjxKe10hzeIPmwqVYW-3raEH4W7ad-IZ0/s320/McDonalds%20CEO.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski at
McDonald's headquarters on Wednesday, May 5, 2021 in the West Loop of Chicago.
Jean Marc-Giboux<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #404040; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Mr. Kempczinski did not
quantify the impact, but McDonald's is expected to report earnings later this
month.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #404040; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">McDonald's was targeted
after its Israeli affiliate said in October that it had </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/free-meals-israeli-soldiers-divide-mcdonalds-franchises-over-israel-hamas-war-2023-10-17/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">given thousands of free meals to Israel
Defense Forces personnel</span></a><span style="color: #404040; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
and was donating meals "to all those who are involved in the defence of
the state, hospitals, and surrounding areas." <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #404040; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Some McDonald’s franchises
in Indonesia and Pakistan said they had made donations to aid organizations in
Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #404040; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“McDonald’s and
Starbucks outside the major cities are empty. You have people not wanting to
buy Nestlé products. BDS people here say that it’s all frictional employment.
It’s not. People are going to be out of jobs for a long time,” said a Malaysian
analyst.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #404040; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">He added that “local
brands are not going to be able to offer the same terms of employment. Nor
would they be able to expand quickly enough to take up any slack left. Few are
investing in this economy.” <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #404040; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The boycott of US brands
adds to the United States’ bind.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.newarab.com/news/new-hampshire-37th-us-state-pass-anti-bds-law"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">A majority of US states</span></a><span style="color: #404040; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> have passed bills and executive
orders designed to discourage boycotts of Israel. Many of them have been passed
with broad bipartisan support. The orders have been challenged in the courts as
violations of freedom of speech.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #404040; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Supreme Court last
year opted </span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/21/top-us-court-refused-to-review-anti-bds-law-heres-what-it-means"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">not to review a law</span></a><span style="color: #404040; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> that penalises boycotting
Israel in Arkansas.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #404040; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Even so, calls for
boycotts of Israel and US brands are likely to be fuelled not only by the continuation
of the Gaza war but also by a potential International Court of Justice ruling
against Israel, and escalating hostilities in the Red Sea.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The
Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div></div></div>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-4354168299413160722024-01-10T13:42:00.002+08:002024-01-10T13:42:39.167+08:00Israeli shift in military tactics threatens to be a double-edged sword.<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXvlgDnnxnpQjHUhyr2B-emX3wjP2f676oh92gDN2tp9WQyhmsAS5Y-wuI7NA7pyDRKdSkF4CyAQI1_xCwfUMwsQavat60__zTHrOC50ol8fZbToWMbpvN-UYUq7bClw-of4YZ9zUxyoSox611iXXCrkuYorVCnwjDqDmRK3wyt9uK2omoCykJog9yzd8/s1280/Israel%20shift%20military%20tactics.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXvlgDnnxnpQjHUhyr2B-emX3wjP2f676oh92gDN2tp9WQyhmsAS5Y-wuI7NA7pyDRKdSkF4CyAQI1_xCwfUMwsQavat60__zTHrOC50ol8fZbToWMbpvN-UYUq7bClw-of4YZ9zUxyoSox611iXXCrkuYorVCnwjDqDmRK3wyt9uK2omoCykJog9yzd8/s320/Israel%20shift%20military%20tactics.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By James M. Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
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<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To watch a video version of
this story on YouTube please click</span></em><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"><a href="https://youtu.be/QsKPo9VFCuw" target="_blank"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> here.</span></em></a></span><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></u></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An audio podcast is available
on </span></em></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/israeli-shift-in-military-tactics-threatens-to-be-a-double-edged-sword" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud</span></em></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.</span></u></em></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><a href="https://thehill.com/policy/international/4385735-israel-shift-gaza-us-pressure-war-hamas/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">US pressure on Israel to switch gears</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> and focus on targetted precision
strikes and killings, rather than indiscriminate bombing of the Gaza Strip,
potentially heightens the risk of the war escalating into a regional bust-up
and expanding beyond the Middle East.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The heightened risk suggests US
efforts to allow Israel to continue attempting to destroy Hamas while
minimising civilian Palestinian casualties could backfire. This would further underline
that the only way of preventing an escalation, protecting innocent lives, and
securing the release of Hamas-held hostages, is a ceasefire.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even so, </span><a href="https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1744722940112085396"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">US Secretary of State Antony Blinken,
on his fifth visit </span></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">to Tel Aviv </span></span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">since the war began, reaffirmed in talks with Israeli Prime
Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, “Israel’s right to prevent another October 7 from
occurring” but “stressed the importance of avoiding civilian harm, protecting
civilian infrastructure, and ensuring the distribution of humanitarian
assistance throughout Gaza.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgas3sEEy18i0mAVodn9SNllgBoQiZemvhxl-frtdlEjPEyk-Ju1gOmsTXCdnPLfjBVD8bWNIxgI5Mj5ca5zWz31atYYLpJq2TE1oBqqesilju0zAxHOt_SlAC4M134n2OVx7lz_VFmQ1vzI5zY0hr7utLdo9Pk9h5GzYh3rl_OvZ1RwhkofqVzcSNKWTA/s624/Blinken.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="468" data-original-width="624" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgas3sEEy18i0mAVodn9SNllgBoQiZemvhxl-frtdlEjPEyk-Ju1gOmsTXCdnPLfjBVD8bWNIxgI5Mj5ca5zWz31atYYLpJq2TE1oBqqesilju0zAxHOt_SlAC4M134n2OVx7lz_VFmQ1vzI5zY0hr7utLdo9Pk9h5GzYh3rl_OvZ1RwhkofqVzcSNKWTA/s320/Blinken.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span class="dcr-1qvd3m6"><i><span style="background: white; border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #707070; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; padding: 0cm;">Antony Blinken arrives in Tel Aviv during his
week-long trip aimed at calming tensions across the Middle East.</span></i></span><i><span style="background: white; color: #707070; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> Photograph: Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters</span></i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Blinken was referring to Hamas’
October 7 attack on Israel that sparked the Israeli assault on Gaza. His
reference to infrastructure constituted the United States’ first public
criticism of Israeli attacks on Gazan hospitals, schools, and other civilian
infrastructure.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Signalling differences with Mr.
Blinken, Mr. Netanyahu’s office </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/stop-harming-gaza-civilians-blinken-tells-netanyahu-as-fighting-rages-in-khan-younis/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">did not issue a readout</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> after the meeting.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even so, US reluctance to go beyond
verbal pressure by threatening consequences if Israel fails to heed US advice may
stem from a belief that </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/24/world/middleeast/Israel-American-support.html"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">America’s leverage on Israel has
diminished</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> over time
in economic and political terms.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">US financial support amounted in 1981
to ten per cent of Israel's GDP. The US’ annual US$4 billion allocation was in
2021 only good for one per cent of GDP. Moreover, Israel today produces many of
its most essential weapons domestically, making it less dependent on US arms
sales.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">In addition, Israel
concluded in 1991 that it could no longer blindly rely on US protection after
the United States did not come to its aid when Iraq fired Scud missiles at the
Jewish state during the Gulf war.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Despite remaining dependent on US
vetoes in the United Nations Security Council and military cooperation, Israel
worked to increase its margin of autonomy, much like Gulf states did three
decades later after the United States failed to respond to Iranian-inspired
attacks on their critical infrastructure in 2019 and. 2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Nevertheless, acting on seemingly
accurate and up-to-the-minute detailed intelligence, Israel appears to have
responded to US pressure by carrying out a series of targeted killings in the
past week, including six operatives of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese
Shiite militia, an Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander in Syria, and a top Hamas
official in Beirut.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">On Tuesday, Israeli forces targeted a
car in southern Lebanon carrying three Hezbollah operatives north of the narrow
band along the 120-kilometre Lebanese-Israeli border to which hostilities with
the Lebanese group have so far been contained.</span> <o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIR3EOmE7e8vq3lknMAKR2zjKmSykrs4fh-ydX8wtuHtktZRno17zBe3UgNSr4ijzvpIFmnY3U-mLJYFfoQVzw4WCqIqDwOaML6Z91WujeQajRVuxj-PkTkuK8UN1eUKvYCUkB7fMbqu3gRb5Zt75SNfvA1IGJlRxkvnntE_AofX3RZ2cpWxdNOk3DUgU/s624/Killing%20Wassam%20Tawil.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIR3EOmE7e8vq3lknMAKR2zjKmSykrs4fh-ydX8wtuHtktZRno17zBe3UgNSr4ijzvpIFmnY3U-mLJYFfoQVzw4WCqIqDwOaML6Z91WujeQajRVuxj-PkTkuK8UN1eUKvYCUkB7fMbqu3gRb5Zt75SNfvA1IGJlRxkvnntE_AofX3RZ2cpWxdNOk3DUgU/s320/Killing%20Wassam%20Tawil.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">A minibus passes the attacked car that was used by the
senior Hezbollah commander Wissam Tawil, who was killed on Monday, in Kherbet
Selem village, south Lebanon, Tuesday, Jan. 9, 2024. Photo: AP/Hussein Malla<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The attack, the second in 24 hours,
occurred as </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/blinken-diplomatic-push-israel-it-says-gaza-war-continue-through-2024-2024-01-09/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Blinken discussed Israeli
military strategy</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
with Mr. Netanyahu and members of his war cabinet.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel targeted a second car, hours
after the attack, close to the home of Wassim Al-Tawil, a </span><a href="https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-commander-radwan-wissam-altawil-ba24fb2fbb7560405d7137196a5c4737"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">senior Hezbollah commander killed
together with another of the group’s fighters in a drone attack on Monday</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, as they travelled by car north of
the band. The car was targeted as Mr. Al-Tawil was laid to rest.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“</span><a href="https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bkk2eg9u6"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">We're targeting Hezbollah operatives</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, infrastructure, and systems they've
set up to deter Israel," said newly appointed Israeli Foreign Minister
Israel Katz.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The United States has been pushing
Israel to scale back its bombing of Gaza that has killed more than 23,000 people,
a majority innocent Palestinian civilians, withdraw troops from the Strip, and
focus on militant Palestinian targets.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The killings of senior Hezbollah,
Hamas, and Iranian commanders threaten to push Iranian-supported forces to
retaliate in ways that could escalate hostilities beyond Gaza and the so far narrow
Israel-Lebanese border band.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In an indication of how hostilities
could escalate, </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-admits-mount-meron-air-traffic-control-base-damaged-in-hezbollah-attack/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hezbollah attacked an Israeli air
traffic control base</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
south of the band on Monday in retaliation for last week’s assassination in
Beirut of a senior Hamas official, Salah al Arouri, and Israeli strikes in
response.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The fact that a majority of Israel’s
targeted killings have been Hezbollah operatives likely has much to do with US,
French, and German efforts to prevent an escalation of exchanges between Israel
and the Lebanese group and negotiate a definitive demarcation of the two countries'
borders.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/05/world/middleeast/hezbollah-hassan-nasrallah-gaza-war-peace.html"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hezbollah has rejected Israeli
demands</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> to withdraw
to a line 30 kilometres north of the border beyond the Litani River. Hezbollah
has also said it would agree to Lebanese government border demarcation talks
only after Israel halts its assault on Gaza and accepts a permanent ceasefire.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel has threatened to militarily
push Hezbollah back to the Litani if diplomatic efforts fail. On a visit this
week to Israeli troops on the Lebanese border, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu warned, “If Hezbollah chooses to start an all-out war then it will…</span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/8/netanyahu-threatens-hezbollah-after-cross-border-attack-kills-civilian"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">turn Beirut and southern Lebanon, not
far from here, into Gaza</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> and Khan Younis.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Israeli attacks on Hezbollah
appear designed to force the group to choose between withdrawing and sparking
an all-out war that bankrupt Lebanon cannot afford and many Lebanese do not
want. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah has
indicated that he does not seek an escalation of hostilities but that his group
was </span><a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240103-hezbollah-leader-warns-israel-against-waging-war-on-lebanon"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">prepared if Israel opted for a
full-fledged conflagration</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel’s apparent focus on Hezbollah
operatives may also be because of its inability so far to take out Hamas’ most
senior Gaza leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, more than three months into the
war.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Last week, David Barnea, the head of
Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service vowed to </span><a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-03-2024-fc2394531bef8238e86879dd98ea435b"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">hunt down every Hamas member involved
in the group’s October 7 attack on Israel</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, no matter where they are.<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifAgv-V-z1CXV9Mt3HGE5-MNGKczmf9c585ENdqc-8FluEFspQxTdsoufb99L_wKfVSQfufaaeNDtOz2BH1VTVH_mPQpvTjRT3UZsCiguGBqazVW4O-JPI8H2lZMsED2bWo66hJ9SaKOeHE5ZApLA47QYJUhnrw7IsFa-Hnt-i4RLaWnID5YQalZjxRuA/s624/Barnea.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifAgv-V-z1CXV9Mt3HGE5-MNGKczmf9c585ENdqc-8FluEFspQxTdsoufb99L_wKfVSQfufaaeNDtOz2BH1VTVH_mPQpvTjRT3UZsCiguGBqazVW4O-JPI8H2lZMsED2bWo66hJ9SaKOeHE5ZApLA47QYJUhnrw7IsFa-Hnt-i4RLaWnID5YQalZjxRuA/s320/Barnea.jpg" width="320" /></a></div></div></div></div></div><p></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Director of Mossad, David Barnea. Photo: Handout/GPO/Amos
Ben Gershom/Anadolu Agency via Getty Image</span></i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Barnea compared the manhunt to
Israel’s pursuit of Palestinian Black September after it attacked the Israeli
team at the 1972 Munich Olympics and killed 11 athletes.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;">
</p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Last month, Ronen Bar, chief of Shin
Bet, Israel’s domestic security agency, said Israel would </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-security-chief-recording-vows-hunt-down-hamas-abroad-kan-tv-2023-12-03/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">hunt down Hamas in Lebanon, Turkey,
and Qatar</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> even if it
took years.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJQ8zUO6Nrl2JQPQ-9zGgSx5uIsB17t6-hTlKG6HD9K_L_XZx04YuPPGMa_ssdPGxfP2TNt8M4gQQLH8Am0630s6k8U_tVjdC9kvQuGXRJTo7Nyrt4sI1lyg0Mp9X3TgN-bMLMJZnAIdW86KXWoLPhxZQYGErPplQ282CZfrrn0nlyGhx6GPSMTeZdfKw/s1430/Ronen%20Bar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="953" data-original-width="1430" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJQ8zUO6Nrl2JQPQ-9zGgSx5uIsB17t6-hTlKG6HD9K_L_XZx04YuPPGMa_ssdPGxfP2TNt8M4gQQLH8Am0630s6k8U_tVjdC9kvQuGXRJTo7Nyrt4sI1lyg0Mp9X3TgN-bMLMJZnAIdW86KXWoLPhxZQYGErPplQ282CZfrrn0nlyGhx6GPSMTeZdfKw/s320/Ronen%20Bar.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Ronen Bar, head of the Shin Bet security agency. Photo:
Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90</span></i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“This is our Munich. We will do this everywhere,
in Gaza, in the West Bank, in Lebanon, in Turkey, in Qatar. It will take a few
years, but we will be there to do it,” Mr. Bar said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">While Hamas has yet to retaliate for
Mr. Al-Arouri’s killing, a senior official warned that it may expand the war
beyond Israel and Palestine if the United States continued to support Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“The West in general, and the US
government in particular, need to reconsider their position because this will
have consequences… If the U.S. insists on its position</span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Y0-nxOj_h8"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, our entire nation will view it, and treat it, as an enemy</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">… This conflict could go beyond
Palestine’s borders, and expand in scope," said Hamas official Sami Abu
Zuhri.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Abu Zuhri’s warning coincided
with a </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/the-gaza-war-is-set-to-spill-onto-the-streets-of-western-cities"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">call by the Islamic State</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> for lone-wolf attacks on
civilian targets in Europe and the United States, including churches and
synagogues.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior
Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The
Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-62119664119202836832024-01-07T11:59:00.003+08:002024-01-07T11:59:40.269+08:00The Gaza war is set to spill onto the streets of Western cities.<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFgrpl6E8na-ah4MFHdhsHcRZJ3Lo2PfAhpFCGRkXNZOcP6UKGEjbZFuDtIvSiYpR2tTS8VAwOv0ijCIzoQwhk1AzSYcEWg6N-pxLeGM-SSVhwkN0M8waGHNYyp1vDHWHTbY3XGSvX-S3tLL54FV8q-HIRg6iJegbaP9or_yIYxtI_hJX64eOwL6WsI3s/s1280/GazaWarIslamState.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFgrpl6E8na-ah4MFHdhsHcRZJ3Lo2PfAhpFCGRkXNZOcP6UKGEjbZFuDtIvSiYpR2tTS8VAwOv0ijCIzoQwhk1AzSYcEWg6N-pxLeGM-SSVhwkN0M8waGHNYyp1vDHWHTbY3XGSvX-S3tLL54FV8q-HIRg6iJegbaP9or_yIYxtI_hJX64eOwL6WsI3s/s320/GazaWarIslamState.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By James M. Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey depends on
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<p style="background: white;"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To watch a video version of
this story on YouTube please click</span></em><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://youtu.be/xXYNIIC8m9M" target="_blank"><span style="font-style: normal;"> here.</span></a><u> </u></span></em><a name="_Hlk108966640"><em><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">An audio podcast is available on </span></em></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-153425019/a-double-edged-sword-mr-bidens-pilgrimage-to-jeddah" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><em><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Soundcloud</span></em></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><em><u><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.</span></u></em></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"><span style="font-family: "Source Serif Pro",serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk108966640;"></span>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The question is not if but when
Gaza-related violence will spill onto the streets of European and American
cities.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This week’s killing in Beirut of
Hamas executive Saleh al-Arouri significantly enhanced the threat posed by
Hamas, Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, and jihadists.</span><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiErUPvrhN0loIHiWpypCrMmIfMtlwwxY8FuMShz16OfhEhx9QSnT61oCIWWmBM_JT8ojl1QlQdzfr4fhfEdy6jb55xSxlACIakl6UKJAvSA88PWeSkkWPlVxKQSibbHZ11G5hBnq7Jm2TWLEyiz2wH6X1M9mOD7UVi4eU9pSqaWO6HB0_EniEGiW6mmN0/s1430/Saleh%20al-Arouri.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="970" data-original-width="1430" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiErUPvrhN0loIHiWpypCrMmIfMtlwwxY8FuMShz16OfhEhx9QSnT61oCIWWmBM_JT8ojl1QlQdzfr4fhfEdy6jb55xSxlACIakl6UKJAvSA88PWeSkkWPlVxKQSibbHZ11G5hBnq7Jm2TWLEyiz2wH6X1M9mOD7UVi4eU9pSqaWO6HB0_EniEGiW6mmN0/s320/Saleh%20al-Arouri.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Hamas
deputy political chief Saleh al-Arouri, after signing a reconciliation deal
with senior Fatah official Azzam al-Ahmad, during a short ceremony at the
Egyptian intelligence complex in Cairo, Egypt. Photo: AP/Nariman El-Mofty<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Adding to the increased threat of
Gaza-related violence spilling into other parts of or beyond the Middle East,
Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah, warned for the second time in a week that
Hezbollah would retaliate.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“We’ll choose the right place and the
right time, but the field will respond,” Mr. Nasrallah said in his second
response to the Al-Arouri killing in Hezbollah’s stronghold in southern Beirut
in as many days.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate for
the killing in Lebanon of any representative of the Iranian-backed Axis of
Resistance that includes Hamas, the Yemeni Houthis, and Iraqi militias
alongside the Lebanese Shiite militia and the Islamic Republic.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Restrained by not wanting to drag
bankrupt Lebanon into a full-fledged war, Hezbollah could opt for a retaliation
far from the Israeli-Lebanese border.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;">
</p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That response was not precluded </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-says-it-hit-israeli-observation-post-with-62-rockets-2024-01-06/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">by the firing on Saturday of 62
rockets at an Israeli observation post</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> in what Hezbollah called a “preliminary response” to the
Al-Arouri killing. The attack appeared calibrated to keep hostilities with
Israelis contained.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8pt; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2gRZCErHvSEepSE7UCEDHmN7uaIL7FrfyU-3nXuUEFoZqPojpxnCkUyd7tQpJrFajUGFkyVeGNSoi0MXLcfeF_KlUHw2nCOr3avCi5nwYwHJ9ZAO6k3KGw8XCxmS8p7B-ZsW4FxaYead81m7PSyeodjVii0eH72mldtq5aZK9n__gxvFES-QvLXo_AhU/s624/HezbollahIsrael.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2gRZCErHvSEepSE7UCEDHmN7uaIL7FrfyU-3nXuUEFoZqPojpxnCkUyd7tQpJrFajUGFkyVeGNSoi0MXLcfeF_KlUHw2nCOr3avCi5nwYwHJ9ZAO6k3KGw8XCxmS8p7B-ZsW4FxaYead81m7PSyeodjVii0eH72mldtq5aZK9n__gxvFES-QvLXo_AhU/s320/HezbollahIsrael.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><p></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; letter-spacing: .15pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">This photograph taken on January 5, 2024 from the southern
Lebanese village of Dhayra along the Israeli border, shows buildings in the
Lebanese town of Tair Harfa as smoke billows over northern Israel. Photo: AFP</span></i><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">However, in a possible indication of
further things to come, Mr. Nasrallah’s representative to Iraq, Mohammad
Hussein Al-Kawtharani, returned to Baghdad reportedly to coordinate attacks on
US targets in Iraq with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A US Treasury-designated global
terrorist, Mr. Al-Kawtharani has </span><a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/reward-offer-for-information-on-hizballahs-financial-networks-muhammad-kawtharani/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">a US$10 million bounty</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> on his head.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;">
</p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Al-Kawtharani’s return coincided
with </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/three-iran-backed-militia-fighters-killed-baghdad-drone-strike-sources-2024-01-04/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">the US killing of an Iranian-backed
Iraqi militia leader</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
in retaliation for recent attacks on American personnel and Iraqi steps to </span><a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.reuters.com_world_middle-2Deast_iraq-2Dprepares-2Dclose-2Ddown-2Dus-2Dled-2Dcoalitions-2Dmission-2Dpm-2Dstatement-2D2024-2D01-2D05_&d=DwMCaQ&c=009klHSCxuh5AI1vNQzSO0KGjl4nbi2Q0M1QLJX9BeE&r=ZMPjogNy-HmrQg8v-M09IOyqF1RP1_bSmRV_m041Kr7OM8VduFxwmlUu9th_KeLj&m=rGZa40zbQ1pr8x3gPSpmv7arY_fw1snBjCyLWC_PQ8e4WOUT7WO-y65p568HfC5p&s=DgwhLNVwrswEqoZFDrI02g-i1mrdL41RSz16qYJyzWs&e="><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">remove the U.S.-led international
military coalition</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
against the Islamic State from the country.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8pt; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHLdYQQAkLYQkgXcWmzw3iCkDTovyqkLbcRkKmgqG0cdaYBIPeRFZ_wVfcRX0Lzl_GXIIeKME6UJYYt2paMI37mdRc3vbzhem37TNUSffpGZ_n9Unj9YlC6llauHQ-yDBwuVWolQBoUVWJ_OW_y1tsKQv1kfqBDkbCx3YWOhMp5LLm4iriRWLRA4_Qphs/s600/AlKawtharani.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="337" data-original-width="600" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHLdYQQAkLYQkgXcWmzw3iCkDTovyqkLbcRkKmgqG0cdaYBIPeRFZ_wVfcRX0Lzl_GXIIeKME6UJYYt2paMI37mdRc3vbzhem37TNUSffpGZ_n9Unj9YlC6llauHQ-yDBwuVWolQBoUVWJ_OW_y1tsKQv1kfqBDkbCx3YWOhMp5LLm4iriRWLRA4_Qphs/s320/AlKawtharani.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><p></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; letter-spacing: .15pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Sheikh Mohammad al-Kawtharani, a senior military commander of
the Hezbollah in Iraq group. Photo: File Photo</span></i><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Widely viewed as a hardliner within
Hamas, Mr. Al-Arouri grew close to Mr. Nasrallah after the Hamas official
arrived in Lebanon at a time when </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE8A61FW/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">the group’s relations with Hezbollah</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> were strained because of Lebanese
Shiite support for President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Nasrallah “turned (Mr. Al-Arouri)
into a power card within Hamas but in Nasrallah's hand... Some even say that
Arouri was </span><a href="https://amwaj.media/article/inside-story-rare-assassination-in-beirut-highlights-hamas-hezbollah-iran-ties"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">a Hezbollah hawk within Hamas</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,” said a source close to Hezbollah.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Addressing Israelis directly in a
speech earlier this week, Mr. Nasrallah, was unequivocal in his call for
replacing Israel with a Palestinian state rather than an independent
Palestinian state alongside Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“</span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/history-repeats-itself-with-the-assassination-of-a-hamas-official"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Here you (Israelis) don’t have a
future</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. The land of
Palestine is for the Palestinians,” Mr. Nasrallah said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">From Hamas’ perspective, responding
to Mr. Al-Arouri’s killing by striking abroad at Israeli embassies, diplomatic
facilities and representatives is its best option. Hamas is unlikely to see a
rocket barrage fired from Gaza toward Israeli towns and cities, most of which
are intercepted by Israeli air defense, as a sufficient response.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Similarly, Hamas, three months into
the war, is not well positioned to successfully target Israeli government
offices and officials in Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;">
</p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Raising the stakes, the Islamic State
this week called for </span><a href="https://www.memri.org/jttm/islamic-state-isis-spokesman-instructs-muslims-renew-lone-wolf-attacks-us-europe-support-gaza"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">lone wolf attacks</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> on civilian argets in Europe and the
United States, including churches and synagogues.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8pt; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4raw9Im3qJkE1nAfYlta_yugVodZ54QB9XXud6iqZhZPUaquHh_NAZyU5EHQBslDF-c9UQN-LgxLvfDW0IgrWmA3NSWeE_6RVj3YkUhgAwjG3PCLbUb2B6vEUi2cPEh2QEZ5GGT2yoxMzCaXyLB4JuOIAQTw_86lJqHkq5A0Jid3dkNSW1QcKJ5SXxgc/s1411/IslamicStateParade.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="941" data-original-width="1411" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4raw9Im3qJkE1nAfYlta_yugVodZ54QB9XXud6iqZhZPUaquHh_NAZyU5EHQBslDF-c9UQN-LgxLvfDW0IgrWmA3NSWeE_6RVj3YkUhgAwjG3PCLbUb2B6vEUi2cPEh2QEZ5GGT2yoxMzCaXyLB4JuOIAQTw_86lJqHkq5A0Jid3dkNSW1QcKJ5SXxgc/s320/IslamicStateParade.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><p></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; letter-spacing: .3pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Islamic State militants parade. Photo:
Yaser Al-Khodor/Reuters</span></i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Referring to past Islamic State
operations and lone wolf attacks in multiple European cities, the group’s
spokesman, Abu Ḥudhayfah Al-Ansari, called on Muslims in the West in a
67-minute audio message “to renew your activity and revive your blessed
operations in the heart of the homes of Jews and Christians…. Chase your prey from Jews, Christians, and
their allies, in the streets and the roads of America, Europe, and the world.
Raid their homes, kill them, and torture them by every means you can.” <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“Blow them up with explosives, burn
them with incendiary bombs, shoot them with bullets, slaughter their necks with
knives, and run them over with buses… Do not differentiate between an infidel
civilian or military, as they are all infidels, and they should be judged the
same way… Aim for an easy target before the difficult ones, and for civilian
targets before military ones, and religious sites such as synagogues and
churches, before anything else,” Mr. Al-Ansari said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Al-Ansari issued the call a day
after the group claimed responsibility for </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/04/iran-kerman-attack-islamic-state-suspicion-border-afghanistan-pakistan"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">two explosions in the Iranian city of
Kerman</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> that killed
at least 89 people.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Al-Ansari appeared to justify the
bombings by denouncing Hamas’ alliance with Iran as a “sin” and denouncing the
1979 Iranian revolution as an “apostate revolution.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Sunni Muslim Islamic State has
made attacks on Shiites, who it views as polytheists, one of its hallmarks. In
addition, the group is angered by Iranian suggestions that the Islamic Republic
will </span><a href="https://www.stimson.org/2024/iran-tempers-rejectionism-to-muslim-consensus-on-palestine/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">accept a two-state resolution</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
if that was the Palestinians’ choice.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Al-Ansari accused Hamas and its
archrival, President Mahmoud Abba’s Palestine Authority and Al Fatah movement,
as well as a United Arab Emirates-backed former Gaza security chief, Mohammed
Dahlan, of being US and/or Iranian proxies.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The spokesman insisted that “the
battle with the Jews is not a religious patriotic or nationalistic battle. It
is a battle not because of the land, soil, or borders. Rather, it is a battle
that derives its legitimacy from the Quran and Sunnah,” Prophet Mohammed’s
deeds and sayings, Mr. Al-Ansari said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">An expanded spree of tit-for-tat
Israeli Palestinian targeted killings in third countries is likely to resemble a
similar spree in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s, with one caveat.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;">
</p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Palestine Liberation Organisation
(PLO) representatives targeted by Israel and hardline Palestinians, like Abu
Nidal, a renegade PLO official, were proponents of compromise with Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8pt; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_d4BSMq_1my8iZ39wCmXTjrgMClgDgymC2IeHphB_UhDbB4uPlcf-t6-FloU3bFnPAJyuY9IEvv-I2ORDViCjaVjW41y8Cke-Yc7hu7UckbEg4WICnUtosR02bv8iYNQl02X8IA1R1lp8mnGuHRQkgH5u4kkbQOJnr-ksAl7Y-OJX3SWVi1seIrX1wZo/s624/Abu%20Nidal.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="624" data-original-width="624" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_d4BSMq_1my8iZ39wCmXTjrgMClgDgymC2IeHphB_UhDbB4uPlcf-t6-FloU3bFnPAJyuY9IEvv-I2ORDViCjaVjW41y8Cke-Yc7hu7UckbEg4WICnUtosR02bv8iYNQl02X8IA1R1lp8mnGuHRQkgH5u4kkbQOJnr-ksAl7Y-OJX3SWVi1seIrX1wZo/s320/Abu%20Nidal.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><p></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><i><span style="color: #525252; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3; mso-themeshade: 128;">Sabri Khalil al-Banna, known as Abu Nidal, whose terrorist
group was said to be behind an attack on Paris’s Jewish quarter in 1982. Photo:
AP<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">However, this time round, Israel is
likely to go for Hamas officials irrespective of where they stand within Hamas’
political spectrum. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In a potential tit-for-tat, Israel could
prioritise Hamas representatives in countries like Turkey, </span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/the-ceo-of-hamas-who-found-the-money-to-attack-israel-351f2888#:~:text=%E2%80%9CJabarin%20is%20the%20CEO%20of,both%20considered%20close%20to%20Iran."><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">home among others to the group’s
‘chief financial officer,’</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Lebanon which hosts other senior Hamas officials beyond Mr. Al-Arouri,
and Malaysia which allows Hamas to operate in the country and raise funds, even
though it recently </span><a href="https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/national/aman-palestin-probe-macc-looking-into-short-term-expenses-and-funds-allegedly-given-to-other-firms/ar-AA1lbn2s"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">cracked down on one of Hamas’s local
funding channels</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By the same token, Israel will likely
refrain from striking in Qatar at senior officials like Ismail Haniyeh and
Khaled Mishal, who are resident in Doha, as long as Hamas holds hostages in
Gaza kidnapped during the group’s October 7 attack on Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Qatar is the main mediator,
attempting to negotiate further prisoner exchanges between Israel and Hamas.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In November, Qatar facilitated a
one-week truce in Gaza during which Hamas released more than 100 hostages in
exchange for 240 Palestinians incarcerated in Israeli prisons. Hamas still
holds 129 hostages, including bodies of captives killed in the hostilities in
Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A tit-for-tat assassination spree
could play into the hands of Hamas, a movement proven capable of surviving the
killing by Israel of its successive leaders over the past two decades.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It could also serve Hamas’ strategy
articulated in 2007 by Mr. Al-Arouri in an interview with Middle East scholar
Bronwen Maddox.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“</span><a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/01/my-interview-hamas-deputy-leader-killed-beirut?utm_source=Chatham%20House&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=14273226_CH%20-%20CH%20Newsletter%20-%2012.01.24&utm_content=Hamas-CTA&dm_i=1S3M,8HXAI,NUSKXR,Z4QPK,1"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Our job is to keep the Palestinians
radicalized</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. Most of
them would settle in a moment for peace, some deal that will let them get on
with their lives. We need to keep them angry,” Mr. Al-Arouri said.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The jury is out on whether Hamas
overshot its goal by provoking the devastation and carnage rained on Gaza by
Israel’s sledgehammer response to the October 7 attack.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Irrespective of what Gazan attitudes
towards Hamas will be once the guns fall silent, Mr. Al-Arouri put his finger
on what remains the group’s Achilles Heel. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Rather than exploiting it, Israel has
focused on security and humiliating control and subjugation of Palestinians in its
zeal to thwart the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside
Israel at the expense of socio-economic development.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s
recent </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/gallants-post-war-gaza-plan-palestinians-to-run-civil-affairs-with-global-task-force/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">proposal for post-war governance of
Gaza</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> suggests that
Israel will continue to refrain from playing what could be its trump card. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Reconstruction and development of
Gaza, managed by a compliant Palestinian authority that would lack credibility,
is in Mr. Gallant’s mind an afterthought that is the international community
rather than Israel’s responsibility.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><a name="_Hlk136859387"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct
Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, </span></i></a><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Turbulent World with James M.
Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1593189288898730807.post-59248530201260266832024-01-04T16:07:00.001+08:002024-01-04T16:07:18.168+08:00History repeats itself with the assassination of a Hamas official.<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHVl6dBtGsFCL3ajdvr_ezX18KX4KRGjbfAFFrkMZnbYhpI0efWB76YbbMPYJtrrCDY7AM01NGGuqbFjQFh88a3zRbiS8zzVOsNa89qk_saDLYjUZgAsNs2hb8dNMwmYox5cVMTu62fqD3vPxKE8kD6aRGfzvJOkfEbJiCPefIkVvXShvnAaWw4S27-68/s1280/Hezbollah.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHVl6dBtGsFCL3ajdvr_ezX18KX4KRGjbfAFFrkMZnbYhpI0efWB76YbbMPYJtrrCDY7AM01NGGuqbFjQFh88a3zRbiS8zzVOsNa89qk_saDLYjUZgAsNs2hb8dNMwmYox5cVMTu62fqD3vPxKE8kD6aRGfzvJOkfEbJiCPefIkVvXShvnAaWw4S27-68/s320/Hezbollah.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By James M. Dorsey<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
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<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">History repeats itself.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Palestinian airplane hijackings and
attacks on Israeli civilians in Israel as well as on Israeli and Jewish targets
abroad pockmarked the 1970s and 1980s.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8pt; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVK5qvUldXXh1sSkAReympUr5Phr1MevGb87dcHQpKj_tWyLZXi7IGTybeT433q986nHAzJiKKOBPNFdpgMeEluYv8eKaJoPGQlf16Yet1M-QYCMw9ulmqDvB_sQr2MPBCnxNDyfRzDC8v4oOzjtdtOgFp3dNCtHeZUdZRD2rA1F4RFiaCqRCL_kDLdKI/s1430/1970%20hijacking.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="931" data-original-width="1430" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVK5qvUldXXh1sSkAReympUr5Phr1MevGb87dcHQpKj_tWyLZXi7IGTybeT433q986nHAzJiKKOBPNFdpgMeEluYv8eKaJoPGQlf16Yet1M-QYCMw9ulmqDvB_sQr2MPBCnxNDyfRzDC8v4oOzjtdtOgFp3dNCtHeZUdZRD2rA1F4RFiaCqRCL_kDLdKI/s320/1970%20hijacking.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #878787; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">A Swissair plane in September 1970 was hijacked
by the PFLP and brought with two other planes to Dawson’s Field in the
Jordanian desert. (AFP)<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The violence put the Palestinian
issue on the world agenda. The violence erupted, and at times, was driven by
fierce debate among Palestinian guerilla leaders on whether to drop maximalist
demands for replacing the State of Israel with a (Palestinian-dominated)
“secular democratic state” and strive for a Palestinian state alongside Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It took the PLO 16 years to
unambiguously accept Israel’s existence and end armed resistance against Israel
in 1988. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The violence ebbed and flowed. It
involved targeted assassinations of Israeli and Palestinian representatives and
leaders in third countries. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;">
</p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The 1982 </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1983/03/06/3-arabs-sentenced-for-london-attack-on-israeli-envoy/8b4d05dd-fff9-475b-9803-87778e44541a/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">shooting in London of the Israeli
ambassador to Britain, Shlomo Argov</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, sparked the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and forced Yasser
Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organisation to decamp from Lebanon to Tunisia.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8pt; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVIsT8ylevaSw_566Etdn5Zv6wiAfWCgNABYdpUmECxcv2ZuubOg43sNCWi7cKvAkrzAf4XhHKKYz0CixwY7sazwo4Dpu8gsO-9F-eE3em6LmYYnv-X5GCQi_brWgPhWXSiaNq1zJj22MqQWVQFOE44o17_sBiSIQXQtAHrMncWl-mTXRTHISRB2d43L8/s467/Argov%20killing.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="311" data-original-width="467" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVIsT8ylevaSw_566Etdn5Zv6wiAfWCgNABYdpUmECxcv2ZuubOg43sNCWi7cKvAkrzAf4XhHKKYz0CixwY7sazwo4Dpu8gsO-9F-eE3em6LmYYnv-X5GCQi_brWgPhWXSiaNq1zJj22MqQWVQFOE44o17_sBiSIQXQtAHrMncWl-mTXRTHISRB2d43L8/s320/Argov%20killing.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #a5a5a5; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: accent3;">Crime Scene Attempted
Assassination of Shlomo Argov, the Israeli ambassador to the United Kingdom,
Thursday 3rd June 1982. Photo: Bunny Atkins/Mirropix/Getty Images<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For much of the 1960s, 70s, and 80s,
Israel refused to engage with the PLO, employing the same language it uses
today about Hamas.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">To be sure, Hamas’ October 7 attack
on Israel upped the ante in scale and brutality. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It has, again fitting a historic
pattern, empowered the most extreme ultra-nationalist, ultra-religious elements
on Israel’s political spectrum, and sparked a war, involving indiscriminate
bombing and punishment of a civilian population that Israel and Hamas will find
difficult to live down.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">While the jury is out, the war has
not halted </span><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/post/hamas-maneuvering-complicates-efforts-to-secure-new-prisoner-swaps"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">a torturous process within Hamas</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, much like the equally torturous
evolution within the PLO.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hamas’ internal debate became evident
with the adoption of its 2017 amended charter and has continued despite the
war. There is no guarantee that Hamas will follow in the footsteps of the PLO.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
</span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This week’s presumably Israeli
killing in Beirut of senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri, a 57-year-old
co-founder of the group’s military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, and
deputy head of its political bureau, raises the spectre of renewed tit-for-tat
Palestinian and Israeli killings in third countries with one difference.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8pt; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl6U9ou5g5h8mKoXKcmiYUTqqnq3c7bOuHJVLRvStX3sNVaaiCPyK8By8XJqJUUNFdexjIgd2y_0Lzx2Bk6lDJqUCsuef2uXPTjNhXGbLNnArB1-cp2Oac_6qSj1xsp27FnHdm7vSAj40J8EJ9kcVz57WNeGuX6ZYSCuO72WfnzeBnEZlC8uyu7iXg034/s1430/Saleh%20al-Arouri.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="970" data-original-width="1430" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl6U9ou5g5h8mKoXKcmiYUTqqnq3c7bOuHJVLRvStX3sNVaaiCPyK8By8XJqJUUNFdexjIgd2y_0Lzx2Bk6lDJqUCsuef2uXPTjNhXGbLNnArB1-cp2Oac_6qSj1xsp27FnHdm7vSAj40J8EJ9kcVz57WNeGuX6ZYSCuO72WfnzeBnEZlC8uyu7iXg034/s320/Saleh%20al-Arouri.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #878787; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Hamas deputy political chief Saleh al-Arouri,
after signing a reconciliation deal with senior Fatah official Azzam al-Ahmad,
during a short ceremony at the Egyptian intelligence complex in Cairo, Egypt.
Photo: AP/Nariman El-Mofty<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Al-Arouri, was widely viewed as a
hardliner within Hamas, responsible for the group’s military infrastructure in
Lebanon and operations on the West Bank, where its popularity is on the rise
because of the Gaza war and its contribution to a potentially burgeoning armed
insurgency.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/video/palestinians-in-ramallah-protest-killing-of-hamas-official-201260101836"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Protests erupted on the West Bank</span></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">,</span></span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> in response to calls by Hamas for
“acts of resistance,” to protest the killing of Mr. Al-Arouri, a West Bank
native, and several other Hamas operatives in the Beirut drone strike. A </span><a href="https://news.yahoo.com/general-strike-west-bank-killing-112831750.html"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">general strike</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> closed down businesses.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In August, Mr. Al-Arouri telegraphed
Hamas’s intentions long before the October 7 attack.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“A total war has become inevitable.
We all consider it necessary… The resistance axis, the Palestinian people, and
our nation</span><a href="https://www.memri.org/tv/hamas-deputy-chairman-arouri-we-want-total-war-with-israel-shut-down-everything"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, we want this total war</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">. It is not (just) something we say
in the media. We talk about it behind closed doors…. We are discussing together
the different scenarios and possibilities,” Mr. Al-Arouri told Al Maydeen TV.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Last century’s tit-for-tat killings
of Palestinians targeted primarily PLO moderates, not hardliners, and were
perpetrated not only by Israel but also by Palestinian hardliners, like Abu
Nidal, a renegade PLO operative.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Israel has repeatedly warned that it
will </span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-plans-to-kill-hamas-leaders-around-the-world-after-war-da88e6b9#:~:text=With%20orders%20from%20Prime%20Minister,a%20decade%2C%20the%20officials%20said."><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">hunt down Hamas operatives</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> wherever they are.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In 2015, the US State Department
offered </span><a href="https://2017-2021.state.gov/rewards-for-justice-reward-offer-for-information-on-hamas-and-hizballah-key-leaders/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">up to $5 million</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> for “information leading to the
identification or location” of Mr. Al-Arouri.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even so, Israel </span><a href="https://t.co/ZwK2qFBWap"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">failed
to notify the Biden administration</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> of its plans to take out Mr. Al-Arouri, a sign it feared the
US would oppose the operation because it risked expanding the war beyond
carefully calibrated hostilities on the Lebanese-Israeli border and in the Red
Sea as well as Israeli-Palestinian clashes in the West Bank.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Complicating the fallout of Mr.
Al-Arouri’s death is the fact that Israel and Hamas are not the only players.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;">
</p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate for
the killing in Lebanon of any representative of the Iranian-backed Axis of
Resistance that includes Hamas, the Yemeni Houthis, and Iraqi militias
alongside the Lebanese Shiite militia and the Islamic Republic.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8pt; text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip6n-KWd_ubfhoJcI9_y0_Ov7H0kPhhVCJ8RQ7JBwmoEGzCMusoyalE5poqyXtFRD2k9N5PkE46GcK-liyjN1tJLYl1tmr_CESVmjL165AHAjLeg5TqMe_zv7Dul9r9_xrrXPqRiJKKAlW8y-CBc7P1Z9gon1MoI5U6IRU51fvQSKsRAEu5efa7Z3RpdY/s1408/Hezbollah%20Dahiya.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="939" data-original-width="1408" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip6n-KWd_ubfhoJcI9_y0_Ov7H0kPhhVCJ8RQ7JBwmoEGzCMusoyalE5poqyXtFRD2k9N5PkE46GcK-liyjN1tJLYl1tmr_CESVmjL165AHAjLeg5TqMe_zv7Dul9r9_xrrXPqRiJKKAlW8y-CBc7P1Z9gon1MoI5U6IRU51fvQSKsRAEu5efa7Z3RpdY/s320/Hezbollah%20Dahiya.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><i><span style="color: #a5a5a5; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3;">Members
of Lebanon’s Hezbollah take part in Ashura commemorations in a southern Beirut
suburb. Anwar Amro/AFP/Getty Images<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hezbollah has been waging a war
against Israel since October 7 to tie Israeli forces down on the Jewish state’s
northern border so that they cannot be deployed in Gaza without provoking an
all-out conflict that could prove disastrous for Hezbollah and Lebanon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Arouri’s killing puts Hezbollah
between a rock and a hard place. It needs to find a way to be seen as living up
to its vow while ensuring the hostilities do not spin out of control. Many in
Lebanon fear Hamas could drag the bankrupt country into a war they do not want.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Last month, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu threatened on a visit to troops on the Lebanese border that Israel would
"single-handedly </span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67831478"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">turn Beirut and South Lebanon, not
far from here, into Gaza and Khan Yunis</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">" if Hezbollah started an all-out war.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;">
</p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In a 90-minute speech to commemorate
the fourth anniversary of the US assassination of Iranian Revolutionary Guard
Qassem Soleimani scheduled before Mr. Al-Arouri’s killing, Hezbollah leader Hasan
Nasrallah referred only summarily to the Hamas leader’s death.</span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYXjij2OvROvwnObyrBr3VJ0yY2lmfgbQDfBloniHZW8aJTE4tNQJFrDNrOSZyJ9URo_19nJMd-UL9qah9aaHQ3fqBveIoaJIEmCWPKKHtq6ZUsnRWVHRNxifemc-eFUWv6GTOyETiLO2OghuE7dqM5MbVzUCIwTaPqm3wfqzLy2Lo-HUFIXN2e3Qr4tY/s624/Nasrallah.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="624" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYXjij2OvROvwnObyrBr3VJ0yY2lmfgbQDfBloniHZW8aJTE4tNQJFrDNrOSZyJ9URo_19nJMd-UL9qah9aaHQ3fqBveIoaJIEmCWPKKHtq6ZUsnRWVHRNxifemc-eFUWv6GTOyETiLO2OghuE7dqM5MbVzUCIwTaPqm3wfqzLy2Lo-HUFIXN2e3Qr4tY/s320/Nasrallah.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><i><span style="color: #a5a5a5; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-themecolor: accent3;">Hezbollah
supporters in Beirut raise their fists and cheer, as they listen to a speech by
leader Hassan Nasrallah. Pic: AP<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Much of his speech was an ode to Mr.
Soleimani and Iran’s role in supporting militias in Gaza, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon,
and Yemen by funding, training, and arming them, enabling them to manufacture
weaponry, and creating the Axis of Resistance.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even so, Mr. Nasrallah insisted that Axis
members independently took their own decisions and did not take orders from
Iran.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Clad in a black cloak and turban, Mr.
Nasrallah praised Hamas’ October 7 attack with no mention of the group’s
targeting of civilians. He described the carnage rained on Gaza by Israel in
response as “worth the sacrifice.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Hezbollah leader produced a
laundry list of why Hamas was winning the war, including its success in putting
the Palestinian plight back on the international agenda.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The war succeeded in “reviving the
Palestinian cause, forcing nations across the world to look for solutions,” Mr.
Nasrallah said, noting that Arab countries had been willing to establish formal
relations with Israel without a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Yet, the Hezbollah leader seemed to
buy time, by saying he would address the issue of Lebanon and Mr. Al-Arouri’s
killing in greater detail in another speech on Friday during a ceremony for a
Hezbollah operative who died recently.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">At the same time, Mr. Nasrallah
appeared to suggest that Hezbollah would retaliate for Mr. Al-Arouri’s killing
on the group’s timeline, considering widespread Lebanese opposition to a war
with Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Nasrallah warned, referring to
Mr. Al-Arouri’s killing in the Hezbollah stronghold in southern Beirut, that “yesterday’s
crime is blatant, it is serious. This crime will not go unanswered. The
battlefield is there, the nights are there.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Yet, he also noted that “we are
taking the situation in Lebanon into account.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Tellingly, Mr. Nasrallah seemed to
back hardliners in Hamas’ internal debate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Arguing that Jewish attachment to the
land was fabricated and that Israelis were fleeing the country because Israel was
proven incapable of providing security, Mr. Nasrallah addressed Israelis
directly, saying, “Here you don’t have a future. The land of Palestine is for
the Palestinians.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8pt; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><i><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Dr. James M. Dorsey
is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam
School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast,
</span></i><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://www.jamesmdorsey.net/" target="_blank"><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The Turbulent World with James M.
Dorsey</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></i></a></span> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8.0pt;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #878787; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><p class="MsoPlainText" style="line-height: 107%; margin-bottom: 8pt; text-align: center;"><br /><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p></div><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p>The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780576145703699280noreply@blogger.com0